Workshop(on( “fine-scale(rainfall(nowcas4ng” · 2014. 6. 9. ·...
Transcript of Workshop(on( “fine-scale(rainfall(nowcas4ng” · 2014. 6. 9. ·...
-
Workshop on “fine-‐scale rainfall nowcas4ng”
31 March 2014, Antwerp
-
Programme
Block 1: Radar-‐based rainfall forecas4ng by na4onal meteo services (integra4on with numerical weather predic4on)
Block 2: Methods for fine-‐scale rainfall nowcas4ng (for urban drainage applica4ons)
Block 3: Quan4fica4on of uncertain4es in rainfall nowcas4ng (sta4s4cal methods and stochas4c modeling)
-
Programme
Block 1: Radar-‐based rainfall forecas4ng by na4onal meteo services (integra4on with numerical weather predic4on)
• Maarten Reyniers, RMI Belgium
• Jean-‐Luc Cheze, MeteoFrance
• Jarmo Kois4nen, FMI Finland
-
Programme
Block 2: Methods for fine-‐scale rainfall nowcas4ng (for urban drainage applica4ons)
• UKMO's STEPS system for radar-‐based rainfall nowcas4ng and experiences incl. hydrological impact analysis: Clive Pierce, UK Met Office
• Recent experiences with STEPS for Belgium (PLURISK project): Loris Fores4, RMI Belgium
• Radar-‐based cell tracking and rainfall nowcas4ng: Lipen Wang, KU Leuven
• Danish experiences with short term nowcas4ng in urban drainage applica4ons: Søren Thorndahl, Aalborg University
-
Programme
Block 3: Methods for fine-‐scale rainfall nowcas4ng (cont…) + Quan4fica4on of uncertain4es in rainfall nowcas4ng (sta4s4cal methods and stochas4c modeling)
• Probabilis4c radar nowcas4ng for urban runoff nowcas4ng: Miguel Rico-‐Ramirez, University of Bristol
• Probabilis4c uncertainty es4ma4on in urban runoff nowcas4ng: David Getreuer Jensen, Aalborg University
• Mul4fractal predictability and predic4on: Daniel Schertzer, ParisTech
• Uncertainty analysis in nowcas4ng and urban drainage: Patrick Willems, KU Leuven
-
Uncertainty analysis in nowcas4ng and urban drainage
Patrick Willems, KU Leuven
-
Rainfall forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
• Sta4s4cal quan4fica4on of total forecast uncertainty – Rainfall residuals = 𝑅↓𝑂𝐵𝑆 − 𝑅↓𝐹𝑂𝑅 /𝑅↓𝐹𝑂𝑅
– Non-‐parametric data-‐based approach (NDA) (empirical frequency distribu4on of rainfall residuals)
– As func4on of rainfall intensity, lead 4me, …
• EPS: Ensemble forecasts
• …
-
Rainfall forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
Sta4s4cal non-‐parametric data-‐based approach:
Rai
nfal
l int
ensi
ty
-
Rainfall forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
Sta4s4cal non-‐parametric data-‐based approach:
Rai
nfal
l int
ensi
ty
-
Rainfall forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
Sta4s4cal non-‐parametric data-‐based approach:
Rai
nfal
l int
ensi
ty
-
Rainfall forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
Sta4s4cal non-‐parametric data-‐based approach:
-
Rainfall forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
Sta4s4cal non-‐parametric data-‐based approach:
-
Rainfall forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
Sta4s4cal non-‐parametric data-‐based approach:
-
Rainfall forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
Sta4s4cal non-‐parametric data-‐based approach:
-
Rainfall forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Willems, P. (2014), ‘Rainfall uncertainty in flood forecasting: Belgian case study of Rivierbeek’, ASCE - Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, in press
Sta4s4cal vs. EPS approach:
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 160
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Time step [3h]
Fore
cast
ed ra
infa
ll [m
m]
Deterministic Alaro rainfall forecastMonte Carlo rainfall forecast
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 160
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Time step [3h]
Fore
cast
ed ra
infa
ll [m
m]
Deterministic EPS rainfall forecastEPS rainfall forecast
-
Rainfall forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Willems, P. (2014), ‘Rainfall uncertainty in flood forecasting: Belgian case study of Rivierbeek’, ASCE - Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, in press
Sta4s4cal vs. EPS approach:
0 10 20 30 40 501
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
Time Horizon [hours]
Dis
char
ge [m
3/s]
ObservationDeterministic simulation95% CI RU90% CI RU80% CI RU60% CI RUEPS simulation
-
Flood forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
• 3 key uncertainty sources: – Model Uncertainty (MU) – Rainfall forecast Uncertainty (RU) – Ini4al Condi4ons Uncertainty (ICU)
• Quan4fica4on of total forecast uncertainty – NDA – Residuals = 𝑄↓𝑂𝐵𝑆 − 𝑄↓𝐹𝑂𝑅 /𝑄↓𝐹𝑂𝑅
• Quan4fica4on of uncertainty on ini4al condi4ons – Resimula4on of historical forecasts with op4mal ini4al condi4ons based on long term simula4on with observed input
• Quan4fica4on of model uncertainty – Long term historical simula4on with observed rainfall
-
Flood forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Willems, P. (2012), ‘Model uncertainty analysis by variance decomposition’, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 42-44, 21-30
Uncertainty decomposi4on
+ + + … +
-
Flood forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Willems, P. (2014), ‘Uncertainty decomposition and reduction in river flood forecasting: Belgian case study’, Journal of Flood Risk Management, doi: 10.1111/jfr3.12093, in press
Uncertainty decomposi4on
-
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
Flood forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Rai
nfal
l int
ensi
ty
-
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
Flood forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
Rai
nfal
l int
ensi
ty
-
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
Flood forecast uncertainty quan:fica:on
-
Flood probability map:
Flood probability: High: 100% Low: 0%
Uncertainty communica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
-
Inunda:on uncertainty mapping
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
Flood probability map:
Flood probability: Hoog: 100% Laag: 0%
13/11/2010 05:00
13/11/2010 10:00
14/11/2010 01:00
-
Uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
Miss Rate:
Correct Alarm ratio:
-
Uncertainty quan:fica:on
Van Steenbergen, N., Ronsyn, J., Willems, P. (2012), ‘Non-parametric data-based approach for probabilistic flood forecasting in support of uncertainty communication’, Environmental Modelling & Software, 33, 92-105
-
Small meso-scale areas
Rain cells
θ
xy Large meso-scale areas
Small meso-scale areas
Rain cells
θ
xy Large meso-scale areas
uR(x,y)
x
y
project PLURISK
WP1
WP2
WP3
WP4
Nowcasting of fine-scale extreme rainfall
2D fine scale modelling, mapping and nowcasting of urban inundations
Socio-economic risk quantification of urban inundations (incl. cultural heritage)
Risk communication and warning
Risk reduction by new sustainable management strategies (better interfacing urban water management, spatial planning and eco-management)
RMI & KU Leuven - Hydr
KU Leuven – Hydr
KU Leuven HIVA & Lemaire
HIVA & RMI
Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech
WP5
-
Small meso-scale areas
Rain cells
θ
xy Large meso-scale areas
Small meso-scale areas
Rain cells
θ
xy Large meso-scale areas
uR(x,y)
x
y
project PLURISK
WP1
WP2
WP3
WP4
WP5
Nowcasting of fine-scale extreme rainfall
2D fine scale modelling, mapping and nowcasting of urban inundations
Socio-economic risk quantification of urban inundations (incl. cultural heritage)
Risk communication and warning
Risk reduction by new sustainable management strategies (better interfacing urban water management, spatial planning and eco-management)
Nation-wide rainfall nowcasting system
demonstrated and tested for 3 Belgian cities;
applicable to any Belgian urban
area