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ARIAL PROGRAMME ON REGIONAL ARIAL PROGRAMME ON REGIONAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

MODELLING OVER THE NIGERIAN ZONE OF MODELLING OVER THE NIGERIAN ZONE OF WEST AFRICAWEST AFRICA

Imoh B. ObiohImoh B. ObiohAtmospheric Research and Information Analysis Atmospheric Research and Information Analysis Laboratory (ARIAL)Laboratory (ARIAL)Centre for Energy Research and Development Centre for Energy Research and Development (CERD)(CERD)Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, NigeriaObafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria

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MotivationMotivation

Strong Climate System DriversStrong Climate System Drivers Evidence of Some Systematic Climate System Evidence of Some Systematic Climate System

Evolution – portraying “change”Evolution – portraying “change” Likely high vulnerability of many life support Likely high vulnerability of many life support

systems, and observed low capacity for early systems, and observed low capacity for early warning and adaptationwarning and adaptation

Need to:Need to:– Improve understanding of regional climate system Improve understanding of regional climate system

physics physics – Contribute to global scientific efforts on climate changeContribute to global scientific efforts on climate change– Provide framework for mitigation and adaptationProvide framework for mitigation and adaptation– Integrate climate change issues into national economic Integrate climate change issues into national economic

medium to long term planningmedium to long term planning

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CHALLENGESCHALLENGES

Low and decreasing density of (especially Low and decreasing density of (especially younger) scientists younger) scientists (below NVP for survival)(below NVP for survival)

Poor research, auxiliary infrastructure and Poor research, auxiliary infrastructure and locallocal financial support – financial support – increasing tendency increasing tendency of of work-sleep approachwork-sleep approach to research to research

Poor network of the limited infrastructure Poor network of the limited infrastructure and people – and people – little team work approachlittle team work approach

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OBJECTIVES OF ARIALOBJECTIVES OF ARIAL

OVERAL OBJECTIVEOVERAL OBJECTIVE– Basic Meteorology and ClimatologyBasic Meteorology and Climatology– LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS LOWER AND UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS

AND CHEMISTRYAND CHEMISTRY– Biosphere-Atmosphere InteractionsBiosphere-Atmosphere Interactions– Air Pollution ResearchAir Pollution Research– CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT:

GHG Inventories GHG Inventories Mitigation AnalysesMitigation Analyses Regional Climate Modelling Regional Climate Modelling Development of Climate Change ScenariosDevelopment of Climate Change Scenarios

– Computational Sciences and Model DevelopmentComputational Sciences and Model Development– Information Sharing/DisseminationInformation Sharing/Dissemination

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OBJECTIVES OF ARIALOBJECTIVES OF ARIAL

RCM OBJECTIVERCM OBJECTIVE– Improved Understanding of Physical Improved Understanding of Physical

Climate System in the Sub-RegionClimate System in the Sub-Region– Provision of New Data for Impact Provision of New Data for Impact

Assessment, Planning and Public Assessment, Planning and Public EducationEducation

– Human Capacity and Support Human Capacity and Support Infrastructure DevelopmentInfrastructure Development

– Contribution to global effortsContribution to global efforts

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CURRENT RCM CURRENT RCM EFFORTSEFFORTS DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSCALING DEVELOPMENT OF DOWNSCALING

TECHNIQUESTECHNIQUES

Based on need to: Sensibly project large-scale information on the regional scale (von Storch et al., 1993).

•Estimate local climate variability from the global scale.

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ITD/ITCZ (10 -20oLat): MJJAS

Monsoon winds (850 – 700 hPa)

Upper level Winds (Jets )– AEJ (500-600 hPa)– TEJ (200 hPa)

CLIMATE OF WEST AFRICA

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STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING

Model Output Statistics uses:

Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF)

PREDICTORS from ECHAM Zonal wind at 850 hPa Zonal wind at 700 hPa Precipitation

PREDICTAND:Monthly mean precipitation data (Nigerian

Meteorological Agency)

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RAINFALL CORRELATIONS: ECHAM VS OBS.(JAS)

Horizontal resolution 300 km

18 Levels in the Vertical

Need to Downscale to 50 km horizontal Resolution

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NIGERIA: 33 SYNOPTIC STATIONS USED IN STUDY

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JAS RAINFALL AVERAGE

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NIGERIA INTERANNUAL RAINFALL VARIABILITY DURING JAS

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PRELIMINARY RESULTSPRELIMINARY RESULTS

PRECIPITATION SKILL MAP

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850 hPa700hPa

700hPa U-WIND SKILL MAP

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MOS Results still preliminary, not yet MOS Results still preliminary, not yet satisfactory.satisfactory.

Appreciable skill levels obtained from Appreciable skill levels obtained from model, can be improved uponmodel, can be improved upon

Despite poor MOS, downscaled results Despite poor MOS, downscaled results still agree more with Observed than still agree more with Observed than GCM results in most cases.GCM results in most cases.

SUMMARY

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NEXT STEPSNEXT STEPS

Improved MOS for Application over 1961-Improved MOS for Application over 1961-2000 and 2000-2100 time scales2000 and 2000-2100 time scales

Engagements in Other RCM Techniques:Engagements in Other RCM Techniques:– Dynamical DownscalingDynamical Downscaling– RegCMRegCM

Improved Understanding of Regional Model Improved Understanding of Regional Model Physics and Climate Sub-Systems’ EvolutionPhysics and Climate Sub-Systems’ Evolution

Provision of DataProvision of Data Increased Human Capacity/Infrastructure Increased Human Capacity/Infrastructure

DevelopmentDevelopment Sustainability of RCM and Other CC InitiativesSustainability of RCM and Other CC Initiatives

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FRAMEWORKFRAMEWORK

COLLABORATION: COLLABORATION:

A KEY AVENUE TO A KEY AVENUE TO

FULFILLING MOST OF THESEFULFILLING MOST OF THESE

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Canada-Nigeria Climate Change Capacity Development Canada-Nigeria Climate Change Capacity Development Project (CN-CCCDP) supported with from CIDA, through Project (CN-CCCDP) supported with from CIDA, through GCSI, Canada; NEST, Nigeria; and Fed. Ministry of GCSI, Canada; NEST, Nigeria; and Fed. Ministry of Environment, Abuja.Environment, Abuja.

International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades New York, USAColumbia University, Palisades New York, USA

African Regional Centre for Space Science and Technology African Regional Centre for Space Science and Technology Education, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.Education, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

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THANK YOUTHANK YOU