Working Together With Water Nether Land

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Workingtogetherwith water

A living land builds for its future

Findings of the Deltacommissie 2008


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working together with water 1

Aan de watergang geboren,aan de grote stroom getogen,met verholen het vermogenom zijn tijdingen te horen,om de maningen van zijn grondenna te stamelen bij monde,

blijf ik het verbond bewaren.Bij de wereld in gebrekeblijf ik naar het water aarden;mag ik met het water spreken,ademen zijn ademhalen,

zijn voorzeggingen vertalen.

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by the cuet eaed,

a hdde pe t hea,

ts tds, ts demads,

Ad epeat them, stamme,

i eep the bd.

i ths fal ld

my ts ae the ate;

i cvese th the ate,

beath ts beaths,

ts pmpts i taslate.

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a 1992


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2 deltacommissie 2008

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Workingtogetherwith water

A living land builds for its future

Findings o the Deltacommissie 2008


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Uit: Het Sterreschip

door Ida Gerhardt

Verzamelde Gedichten II

Athenaeum-Polak & van Gennep

Amsterdam 1992

De ondertitel van het advies is

ontleend aan de spreuk op het

monument op de Asluitdijk

Aan de watergang geboren,

aan de grote stroom getogen,

met verholen het vermogen,

om zijn tijdingen te horen,

om de maningen van zijn gronden

Na te stamelen bij monde.


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One cannot conceive o the Netherlands without water. Through the centuries,

and still today, the inhabitants o our delta have made great eorts to struggle

out o the grasp o the rivers and the sea and it is this that sets our country

apart. Situated at the mouths o our major, navigable rivers with access to all

the seas o the world, in many respects our country is supported by the water.

The sea and the rivers have shaped our identity and the country itsel: its

nature and landscape, its prosperity and economy, and the way it is governed

(water boards; the polder model).

The disastrous oods o1953 are still etched into our collective memory;

in the very same month the Minister o Transport and Public Works set

up a committee to examine, which hydraulic engineering works should be

undertaken in relation to those areas ravaged by the storm surge, (and) also

to consider whether closure o the sea inlets should orm one o these works.1

In their advisory report the frst Delta Committee introduced the concept

o risk-based ood protection, i.e. to consider the probability o ooding as

well as the consequences when determining the optimum level o saety. In

addition the implementation o the recommendations radically altered the

appearance o the south-western Netherlands and secured its long-term saety.

Construction o the frst Delta Works thus laid a solid oundation upon

which to base the present recommendations. In recent decades considerable

investments have also been made in the deence o the coastline o Holland,

the Wadden Sea coast and the construction o river dikes. In the years to come,

work will continue on the weak links in the coastal deences and on the

measures to create more discharge capacity or the rivers Rhine and Meuse

through the implementation o the Maaswerken [Meuse Works] and Ruimte

voor de Rivier [Room or the River] programmes.

A new Delta Committee

Climate change is now orcing itsel upon us: a new reality that cannot be

ignored. The predicted sea level rise and greater uctuations in river discharge

compel us to look ar into the uture, to widen our scope and to anticipate

developments urther ahead. For that reason the Cabinet appointed a new

Delta Committee, the Sustainable Coastal Development Committee, with the

mandate to ormulate a vision on the long-term protection o the Dutch coast

and its hinterland.

Our mandate is broader than that o our predecessors in the frst Delta

Committee. At that time they were primarily concerned with hydraulic

engineering works to counter an acute threat. For us, the second Delta

Committee, the threat is not acute, but our mandate is nevertheless urgent.

There is absolutely no reason or panic, but we must be concerned or the

Foreword

The cast at Zutelade, Zeelad


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uture. I we are to be well prepared or the expected consequences o climate

change, we shall have to strengthen our ood deences and change the way our

country is managed, both physically and administratively. Our Committees

mandate is thereore unusual: we have been asked to come up with

recommendations, not because a disaster has occurred, but rather to avoid it.

The nature o the advice requested is also unusual: to present an integrated

vision or the Netherlands or centuries to come.

The challenge to the Netherlands in the coming centuries is not primarily a

threat; it also oers new prospects. Changing the way our country is managed

creates new options; working with water may improve the quality o the

environment and oers excellent opportunities or innovative ideas and

applications. Where there is water, new orms o nature can arise. Water can

be used to produce ood and generate energy. Flood deences can be used or

roads.

The country we want to live in

The undamental question, central to this report, is How can we ensure that

uture generations will continue to fnd our country an attractive place in

which to live and work, to invest and take their leisure? This advisory report

sets down the conditions required or that desired uture to become a reality. I

these conditions are ulflled, then as ar as the Delta Committee is concerned

we proceed right away, in both word and deed. Ater all, A living land builds

or the uture.

Proessor C.P. Veerman,

Chairman o the Delta Committee

1. rpp d. env n

invzn. d 1, bz. 15 (1960) [d

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av, P 1, p. 15])

Flevplde ea Lelystad


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The mandate ...

The government asked the Delta Committee to come up with recommendations

on how to protect the Dutch coast and the low-lying hinterland against the

consequences o climate change. The issue is how the Netherlands can be

made climate proo over the very long term: sae against ooding, while still

remaining an attractive place to live, to reside and work, or recreation and

investment.

... n npn

The task at hand, then, involved looking urther than just ood protection.

The Committees vision thereore embraces interactions with lie and

work, agriculture, nature, recreation, landscape, inrastructure and energy.

The strategy or uture centuries rests on two pillars: ood protection and

sustainability. The report also emphasises the opportunities or Dutch society/

the Netherlands as a whole.

w y

Water saety is at the centre o this report, and includes both ood protection

and securing resh water supplies. Achieving water saety prevents casualties

and social disruption, while avoiding damage to our economy, landscape,

nature, culture and reputation.

In their report, the Delta Committee assumes that a sae Netherlands is a

collective social good or which the government is and will remain responsible.

The level o ood protection must be raised by at least a actor o10 with

respect to the present level.

oppun unby

The Committees recommendations place emphasis on development along

with climate change and ecological processes; thus, they are cost eective and

produce additional value or society. The recommended measures are exible,

can be implemented gradually and oer prospects or action in the short term.

Their implementation will allow the Netherlands to better adapt to the eects

o climate change and create new opportunities. The recommendations made

must be sustainable: their implementation must make efcient use o water,

energy and other resources, so that the quality o the environment is not merely

maintained but even improved.

ipnn: The Delta Pamme

The Delta Committee has drated the Delta Programme to implement its

recommendations or a climate-proo Netherlands. The programme will be

embedded, fnancially, politically and administratively, in a new Delta Act.

Summary


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The mission is urgent

Implementation o the recommendations is a matter o urgency. The

Netherlands must accelerate its eorts because at present, even the current

standards o ood protection are not being met everywhere. Moreover, the

current standards are out o date and must be raised, the climate is changing

rapidly, the sea level is probably rising aster than has been assumed, and more

extreme variations in river discharge are expected. The economic, societal and

physical stakes in the Netherlands are great and growing still; a breach in a dike

has seriously disruptive consequences or the entire country.

The Delta Committee concludes that a regional sea level rise o0.65 to 1.3 m by

2100, and o2 to 4 m by 2200 should be taken into account. This includes the

eect o land subsidence. These values represent plausible upper limits based on

the latest scientifc insights. It is recommended that these be taken into account

so that the decisions we make and the measures will have a lasting eect, set

against the background o what can be expected or the Netherlands.

For the Rhine and the Meuse, summer discharge will decrease and winter

discharge will increase due to the temperature increase and changed

precipitation patterns. Around 2100 the maximum (design) discharges o

the Rhine and Meuse are likely to be around 18,000 m3/s and 4,600 m3/s,

respectively. Present design discharges are 16,000 m3/s and 3,800 m3/s.

A rising sea level, reduced river discharges in summer, salt water intrusion via

the rivers and ground water, all put pressure on the countrys drinking water

supply, agriculture, shipping and those sectors o the economy that depend on

water, or cooling or otherwise.

Scientic basis

The Delta Committee sought scientifc advice on a number o aspects, which

orm part o the present recommendations. In summary, these are the fndings o

a group o national and international experts, including those close to the IPCC

and Dutch experts on ood protection and water management. This group o

experts has supplemented the latest insights into climate scenarios, and come up

with new estimates o extreme values.


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Cost

Implementation o the Delta Programme until 2050 involves a cost o1.2 to

1.6 billion euros per annum, and 0.9 to 1.5 billion euros per annum in the

period 20502100. Coastal ood protection in the Delta Programme is mainly

achieved by beach nourishments. I this method is intensifed so that the coasts

o the Netherlands grow say 1 km in a seawards direction, thus creating new

land or such unctions as recreation and nature, it will involve an additional

cost o0.1 to 0.3 billion euros per annum.

Amuts eus at 2007 pce levels, clud Dutch Value Added Tax (BTw).

Twelve recommendations or the uture

The Delta Committee has developed an integrated vision or the uture

extending to 2100 and beyond. A long-term vision like this depends on

national, European and global developments. Concrete recommendations or

the short and medium term must be made, however, since direct action is needed

now to raise the level o ood protection and to secure resh water supply. The

Delta Committee has ormulated the ollowing twelve recommendations or the

short and medium term.

Indicatie extra annual costs

[billions of euros]

Period Average

2010 - 2050 2050 - 2100 2010 - 2100

Deltaprogramme 1,2 to 1,6 0,9 to 1,5 1,0 to 1,5

Deltaprogramme, with additional

coastal space or other unctions

1,3 to 1,9 1,2 to 1,8 1,2 to 1,8


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Twelve recommendations for the future

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Recommendation 1

Flood protection level

Recommendation 2

Plans or new urban development

Recommendation 3

Areas outside the dikes

Recommendation 4

North Sea coast

Recommendation 5

Wadden Sea area

Recommendation 6

South-western delta:

Eastern Scheldt

Recommendation 7


Western Scheldt

Recommendation 8


KrammerVolkerak Zoommeer

Un 2050

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Un 2050

P 2050

Un 2050

P 2050

t 2050


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Delta Pamme.

Recommendation 9

The major rivers area

Recommendation 10

Rijnmond

(mouth o the river Rhine)

Recommendation 11

IJsselmeer area

Recommendation 12

Political-administrative,

legal, nancial

Un 2050

2050 - 2100

Un 2050

Un 2050

P 2050



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Forword 5

Summary 9

1. The mandate 17

2. Foundation o the advice: challenges and opportunities 21

3. An integrated vision to create opportunities 37

4. Working on the uture: developing with the climate 45

5. Decision making: rom vision to action 77

6. Future-proo advice: conclusions 87

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Table of contents


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The Delta Committees task was to investigate strategies or the uture, long-

term development o the coast (21002200), paying attention to both saety

and environmental (spatial) quality. The Cabinet asked the Committee to

consider in particular innovative measures to strengthen the coast and to

include the interaction with increased river discharge in its recommendations.

The Committee was also asked to look at other aspects besides saety: possible

synergy between ood protection and other societal unctions such as lie and

work, resh water supply, nature, recreation, landscape, inrastructure and

energy.

On 7 September 2007 the Council o Ministers set down the Delta Committees

mandate in an Appointment Resolution (see Appendix 1).

Dening the mandate

In order to defne its mandate in geographical and substantive terms, the

Committee pondered how wide the coast is, physically as well as in association

with other unctions. The Committee takes a broad view o the coast: it includes

the sea and the coastal zone as well as the low-lying hinterland, the interaction

with the rivers and the IJsselmeer lake, and the cross-border aspects o the

rivers and the coastal zone (see Figure 2). This broad interpretation is necessary

because to a great extent the system orms a single hydrological, ecological and

economic entity.

In substantive terms the Committee concurs with the importance stressed in its

Appointment Resolution o the relation between water saety and other societal

interests and values. The Committee thereore regards water saety as an

integral issue, including not only ood protection and ood risk management,

but securing the resh water supply and conserving the estuaries as well.

The Committees advice concerns mainly the primary system, but is related

to and impacts on the spatial planning o the entire country. Administrative

responsibility, the legal apparatus and fnancial guarantees thus make up a

substantial part o this report.

1The mandate

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Cmmttees ept.


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The Committee at work

The Delta Committee is composed o nine members: Proessor Cees

Veerman (Chairman), Ineke Bakker, Dr Jaap van Duijn, Proessor Louise

Fresco, Andries Heidema, Proessor Pavel Kabat, Tracy Metz, Koos van

Oord and Proessor Marcel Stive.

The Committee was supported by a secretariat headed by the Secretary to the

Committee, Bart Parmet.

The Committee held ten plenary meetings, some o which lasted or several

days. Subcommittees were also ormed to look in more detail at specifc

aspects o the mandate: the physical system, its use, uture scenarios, and

administrative, legal and fnancial aspects.

Water saety impacts on the entire community; many people are closely

involved with it. The Committee ound a widespread sense o urgency, one

which it shares. The Committee was inspired and enriched by the opinions and

creative ideas oered by many people rom all sectors o the community. The

Committee also received many unsolicited responses, showing that the issue has

wide support. At both national and regional level the Committee was provided

with extensive inormation rom administrators, community groups and

experts on the issues and ideas with which they are concerned. This gave the

Committee not just a picture o the national challenge, but also an impression

o the challenges, opportunities and possible solutions as they are perceived and

experienced in the regions.

The Committee organised workshops with experts and stakeholders, which

explicitly involved young proessionals (and which later gave rise to a

Young Delta Committee: see the background report on this initiative). The

mandates international dimension led to exchanges o opinion, knowledge

and ideas at dierent levels with our neighbouring countries and the European

Commission2, during bilateral talks, workshops and feld trips. The public was

kept inormed through the Dutch government inormation line and a dedicated

website, and the issues that the Committee addressed received regular media

attention.

The Committee consulted experts, research institutes, national assessment

agencies, government departments, executive agencies and the like to also

provide a scientifc oundation or its analyses and recommendations.

Inormation on a number o broad issues was provided in the orm o studies

that have been published as background reports to this publication (see

Appendix 2 or a list o background reports).

The Committee is extremely grateul or their input and involvement to all those

persons and institutions that oered their advice and shared their knowledge,

whether solicited or not.


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Result

The content o this report extends in to a distant uture that is most uncertain.

We have to work deliberately towards that uture right now, though. The

Committee does not present a cut-and-dried blueprint but rather indicates

a clear direction that leaves room or uture refnement. The Committee has

ormulated proposals or the creation o institutional rameworks that oer

guarantees so that the necessary decisions can be taken timely and at the right

level and so that adequate unding is available or the investments needed. Its

recommendations are more concrete or the shorter than the longer term, thus

leaving room or possible divergent scenarios and uture expectations.

Surely, there are problems that need to be tackled. Above all, however, there are

opportunities and new perspectives.

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The Dutch coast, a 350 km long strip where sea and land merge, has undisputed

value; or the Netherlands, coastal and river ood protection is vital.3 Being

able to live in our delta has never been something we can take or granted. Its

maintenance and development demand continuous eorts; the work is never

done. Fulflling this task oers great opportunities or creating additional

environmental (spatial) quality.

The deltas values

Most o the population lives immediately behind the coast, in the low-lying

areas o the Netherlands below sea level. This region is also the centre o the

nations economy. Nearly 9 million people live in this part o the Netherlands,

protected by dikes and dunes along the coast, the main rivers and the lakes,

while roughly 65% o GNP is generated here.4 The major docks and airports on

or near the North Sea are vital nodes in the international transport network as

well as important locations or the goods and services industries.

These are important reasons or the Netherlands to maintain such strict

standards or ood protection. The consequences o a ood in our densely

populated, intensively utilised country are unimaginable.5 In her letter to

Parliament, Progress Report on National Security 2008, the Minister o the

Interior and Kingdom Relations qualifed the worst conceivable ood scenarios

as highly improbable [but with] catastrophic consequences or the entire

country. I such a catastrophe were to occur, it would not just aect large

numbers o people and lead to major social disruption; it would also have

serious repercussions on international business investment decisions.

The North Sea, the Wadden Region and the Western Scheldt are the most

natural and most dynamic landscapes in the Netherlands. Processes that shape

the landscape can proceed undisturbed in these areas. The Netherlands cares

greatly about the ecological value and natural landscape along the coast and

rightly so. These values are internationally recognised and are being conserved,

partly by allocating large parts o the coast to the National Ecological Network

and placing them under the Birds and Habitat Directive. The signifcance o the

North Sea, the Wadden Sea, the IJsselmeer lake and other large bodies o water

is largely due to their great natural value as bird breeding grounds, migration

and overwintering areas, habitats or marine mammals, molluscs and aqueous

ora, and as fsh breeding grounds. In short, our delta the coast and the

hinterland houses great riches: economic, ecological and social. Riches so vast

that it would be inconceivable that the Netherlands would ever abandon them.

2Foundation of the report:

challenges and opportunities

Fue 3: results f the secd safety

audt f the pmay fld defeces,

2006.


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The water is rising

Flood risk management is a pressing issue right now in a large number o

places and will only become only more urgent as the sea level continues to rise,

river discharges uctuate more and more and as interests that need protection

increase in value.

The present ood protection standards or the Dutch coast are based on the

work o the previous Delta Committee and date rom the 1960s. Since that

time the interests to be protected have grown enormously; updating these

standards would result in higher ood protection levels or numerous diked

areas.6 The latest audit (1 January 2006), however, revealed that 24% o our

ood deences did not meet these current (outdated) standards, while nothing

could be said about a urther 32% (see Figure 3).7 This report also revealed

that 22% o the civil engineering works did not meet these standards whereas

49% o these works could not be assessed. Moreover, one should realise that or

the present and the uture, large investments in housing, industrial estates, and

inrastructure are planned in the low-lying areas o the country. 8 In the short

term we thus ace many challenges to exploit the opportunities.

c n 2006

Global warming due to increased greenhouse gas emissions and the act that this

warming will have consequences or sea level and the weather is virtually beyond

dispute now. However, there is still a great deal o uncertainty about the severity

and rate o climate change, as well as the magnitude o the consequences.

The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) has drawn up our

scenarios or the Netherlands, varying in terms o mean temperature increase

and air circulation patterns.9 The individual scenarios give temperature

increases or the Netherlands rom a ew degrees to 4C in 2100. Droughts

will become a bigger problem due to increased evaporation and changed

precipitation patterns.10

In 2006 the KNMI worked out two scenarios or sea level rise o the

Dutch coast. KNMI assumes a temperature increase in 2100 o2C in its

low temperature scenario (moderate scenario) and o4C in its high

scenario(warm scenario).11 This results in a sea level rise o15 to 35 cm in

2050 and 35 to 85 cm in 2100. Neither o these cases takes account o land

subsidence and the reerence year in both cases is 1990 (see Figure 4).

The Delta Committee has sought to base its advice on the most recent scientifc

insights into a plausible upper limit to global and regional sea level rise,

changed storm conditions above the North Sea, and precipitation changes

leading to altered discharge in the major rivers. The Committee has thereore

commissioned additional research to provide a systematic survey o the most

recent inormation on climate scenarios (see Appendix 3). A score o prominent

national and international climate experts, including several IPCC authors, has

been commissioned by the Delta Committee to produce scenarios or 2100,

supplementary to the IPCC 2007 and KNMI 2006 scenarios. When considering

sea level rise scenarios, one o the inputs was the temperature increase

calculated by the IPCC on the basis o the IPCC highest emission scenario,

called A1FI (see box). Also, estimates have been made o possible climate

developments in the year 2200. The ollowing conclusions can be drawn.12


26/138


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Greenhouse gases, rising temperature and sea level

Fue 4: Sea level se sceas.

The sea level cease ff the Dutch

cast expected 2050, 2100 ad

2200. (Yea f efeece 1990. Lad

subsdece s t cluded these

data.)



27/138


h v

In the past century the sea level along the Dutch coast has risen by

approximately 20 cm with respect to Dutch Ordnance Datum NAP. According

to the 2007 IPCC report, in 2100 we shall be aced with temperatures rom

1.5 to 6C higher than they are now. In combination with other assumptions

incorporated in these scenarios, this means that at the end o the present

century, given a temperature increase o6C, we may expect a sea level rise o

0.55 to 1.2 m.13 Mean land subsidence along the Dutch coast, due to glacial

isostasy and subsoil compaction,14 will be well over 10 cm in 2100.15On

balance this implies a relative sea level rise or the Netherlands o0.65 to 1.3

m in 2100.16

Research conducted or the Delta Committee shows that in 2200 we can

expect a global maximum sea level rise o1.5 to 3 m, depending on the method

used, with local values o as much as 2 to 4 m.17 Uncertainty about long-term

climate developments and the ate o the land ice on Greenland and Antarctica,

however, are so great that any attempt to translate this upper scenario to the

Dutch coast can be regarded as indicative only. The scenarios are more reliable

out to 2100 thanks to our knowledge o the present rate o sea level rise and

the act that it is unlikely that this rate will accelerate greatly over a period

o several decades. The reliability o predicted sea level rise beyond 2100 is

ar less. In general terms we can expect that the sea level in 2200 will in any

case be higher than in 2100, and that sea level will continue to rise or a long

time thereater as a result o the long-term eects o increased greenhouse gas

concentrations.18

Following the latest insights into the upper limit o sea level rise in 2100, the

Delta Committee concludes that this level may be higher than has been assumed

up till now. An upward trend can be seen in the estimates as our knowledge

advances.

For 2050 the Delta Committee has utilised the KNMI 2006 scenarios or sea

level rise. Given a mean land subsidence o approximately 5 cm, relative sea

level will rise by 0.2 to 0.4 m until that time.

The measures developed on the basis o the KNMI 2006 scenarios do not need

to be changed in the short term. Given the trend in the estimates, however,

there is good reason to implement them ully, in good time, and to uture-proo

them. The rising sea level must be monitored careully and policy must be tested

against the latest insights, and then modifed i necessary. In other words, policy

must become adaptive.

A climate-proo strategy or water management and ood protection must be

based on the possibility that stabilisation at high levels may not be achieved:

even i greenhouse gas concentrations were to stabilise at roughly 750 ppm, the

global temperature could rise by more than 6C beyond 2100. This is the level

that the Delta Committee has selected as the possible upper limit at the end o

the present century.


28/138


gn n

In geological terms, the implication o relative sea level rise or the Dutch Delta

is a permanent need to deposit sand. Inadequate sand supplies will lead to

defcits. On balance, today, hardly any sand is transported to the Dutch coast

rom the sea and rivers. This is leading to sand defcits in the interlinked system

comprising the North Sea coast, Wadden Sea, Western and Eastern Scheldt.19

wn n

Climate models are showing a slight, year-on-year increase in the highest daily-

mean wind speeds. The orce o severe storms, mainly rom the south-west, is

also increasing slightly over North-western Europe. Such storms occur less than

once a year.

The available models and data do not as yet permit clear statements to be made

about the period beyond 2100. The Committee regards it as sensible to conduct

urther research using existing time series and projections based on multiple

runs o dierent climate models.

m u rn n mu

In the KNMI 2006 scenarios, the increasing temperature and changing air

circulation patterns result in lower summer discharges and higher winter

discharges or the Rhine. In summer the mean Rhine discharge, now 1700

m3/s, may drop to 700 m3/s in 2100. In winter, peak river discharges, at present

regarded as rare, may occur regularly. For instance, the probability o the 1995

Rhine discharge o12,000 m3/s is now 1/50 per year, but this will increase

to 1/10 per year in 2100. As a consequence, the discharge that occurs with a

probability o1/1250 per year (the design discharge) rises rom 16,000 m3/s

now to 17,00022,000 m3/s in 2100.20 There is great uncertainty, in other

words. The available climate models do not permit any sensible scenarios to be

developed or the period 21002200.

Peak Rhine discharges will lead to widespread ooding in Germany; the state

o the ood deences there is such that widespread ooding occurs at rates o

14,000 m3/s and more. A joint study conducted by the Directorate-General or

Public Works and Water Management, the Province o Gelderland, and North

Rhine-Westphalia showed that a potential discharge o19,000 m3/s, which

the scenarios tell us is conceivable in 2050, will result in a peak o16,000 m3/s

fnally reaching the Netherlands. In a climate scenario or 2100 with enough

rainall to generate a potential 22,000 m3/s, the maximum discharge would be

in the region o18,000 m3/s. This thereore means an upper limit o18,000

m3/s to the discharge that can reach the Netherlands. The design discharge or

the Meuse is based on a probability o1/1250 per year; at present this is 3,800

m3/s at Borgharen.21 Climate changes can lead to indicative discharge rates o

4,200 and 4,600 m3/m respectively around 2050 and 2100. It is not likely that

measures in France, Belgium and Germany will lead to a substantial reduction

o uture discharge volumes through the Meuse.22


29/138


Anticipating the (plausible) upper limit rom climate scenarios

It is unlikely that the maximum values or these years will actually be exceeded.

What the Committee fnds more important is that the sea level will rise, even i

we cannot yet with certainty tell by how much at what time. Certainly, the frst

problems in our water system will occur beore the maximum predicted rises

in sea level and river discharge have become a act. The decisions made and the

measures taken must be sustainable, set against the background o what the

Netherlands may expect. Future generations must not be conronted with a ait

accompli, should the eects o climate change be worse than we can or wish to

contemplate at this time. For that reason, the Delta Committee has anticipated

the upper limits rom the climate scenarios and the eects on sea level and river

discharge, as set out above.

Higher temperature and resh water shortage

A rising sea level imperils the resh water supply in the Western Netherlands as

the salt water penetrates urther inland via the rivers and through the subsoil.

Agriculture, horticulture and other sectors o the economy will suer harm

as a result. There are two threats: salination and in warm, dry summers a

shortage o resh water. In the most extreme KNMI scenario or the start o

the next century, there will on average be a shortage o water comparable with

the driest year to date, 1976. Such a shortage may cause signifcant damage to

agriculture, the natural ecology and shipping.23

Higher temperatures and the threats to the resh water supply change the

conditions or animal and plant species in the Netherlands so drastically that

we can expect (part o) our natural ecology to take on a very dierent character.

Some species and certain ecosystems will not be sustainable under the changed

conditions; others, which were not able to ourish here in the past, can and

will become established in our regions. This must have consequences or nature

policy; a policy that is concerned to preserve present species will probably be

neither sustainable nor desirable in the ace o climate change.

Agriculture and horticulture will also encounter changes due to higher

temperatures, variability in the resh water supply, or salt in the soil and

ground water. Climate change as such is not a threat to ood production. On

the contrary, it oers new opportunities or the Netherlands to remain a major

ood supplier, even in the long term, given sufcient investment and provided

the agricultural sciences succeed in developing the necessary knowledge and

expertise in time to allow us to take advantage o the changed production

conditions.

The high temperatures may give rise to water quality problems. Implementation

o the EU Water Framework Directive will lead to a considerable improvement

in the preconditions needed or good water quality, even with rising

temperatures. On this point, climate-proofng rests on a solid oundation.

As temperatures rise, the cooling water or power stations presents a bigger

problem. The industrial sector has, however, made provision to cope with the

issue as best possible.


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31/138


The Netherlands is unprepared or climate change

Climate change conronts the Netherlands with major adaptation problems,

which have consequences or the organisation o the entire country. Spatial

planning will have to adapt to dierent living conditions or both humans and

animals. Our country must remain a pleasant place to live, even in times o

climate change. This means that under all circumstances there must be space or

housing, work, transportation, ood production, energy generation, recreation,

nature etc. Where possible, these unctions must be cleverly combined. In this

respect, water is an important guiding principle, and one that will only increase

in importance in the uture.

The ood risk will increase and the resh water supply will come under pressure

i no extra measures are taken. Our awareness o the interrelations between the

various elements o the water system is signifcant here: everything depends on

everything else in our water-rich delta. Figures 5 and 6 show the eects on the

water system in 2050 and 2100, respectively. I the Rhine discharge increases,

the discharge capacity o the Waal and/or the IJssel will have to be increased.

Higher discharges combined with sea level rise have consequences or ood

protection at critical locations, such as Rotterdam and other towns in the

Rhine delta area, as well as or the land use and spatial planning in the rivers

region (where should house-building be permitted, or instance, and what orm

should it take?), and or resh water storage in the IJsselmeer lake and possibly

in the delta o Zeeland and South Holland. Sea level rise will compel changes to

the major ood deences. Such changes will not be without eect on the natural

processes and ecological values o the estuarine environments. They will also

impact on those sectors o the economy that depend on such environments

(tourism, fsheries, etc.).

The storm-surge barriers in the Eastern Scheldt and Nieuwe Waterweg have

been designed in anticipation o a sea level rise o20 and 50 cm per century,

respectively.24 I the sea level rises urther, then the storm-surge barriers will

have to be modifed or replaced. The Maeslantkering (Nieuwe Waterweg)

barrier may be closed ar more requently in 2050 and 2100 than the once per

decade originally envisaged. I the sea level rises by 85 cm, the Maeslantkering

will have to be closed roughly three times a year. A rise o1.3 m will mean

closing the barrier about 7 times a year. I closure coincides with a high river

discharge, then or a time the river cannot discharge into sea and its water

will accumulate upstream o the closed barrier.25 The requency with which

the oodplains are inundated will increase as a result, as will the area under

water. Moreover, i the ood deences remain unchanged, ood probability in

Rijnmond and the Dordrecht region will increase: every 4060 cm o sea level

rise will increase ood probability by a actor o10 in this region.26

The current programme to increase the discharge capacity o the Rhines

tributaries aims at a design discharge capacity o16,000 m3/s and, with

additional measures (long-term vision presented in Room or the River), this

can be increased to 18,000 m3/s. It is important to actually create this capacity

increase. The Meuse discharge may increase to 4,600 m3/s; measures additional

to the Maaswerken (Meuse Works) are needed to cope with this discharge.

Lower river discharges in summer could present a problem or resh water

extraction and agriculture. In the most extreme scenario it is anticipated that

Fue 5: Effects f sea level se ad

chaed ve dschae ates

the nethelads daae system,

2050.


32/138



33/138


resh water extraction at Bernisse (near Hellevoetsluis / Spijkenisse) and Gouda

will have to cease or nearly 6 months o the year in 2050.27 The process o

groundwater salination was set in train centuries ago when the polders were

drained and lake beds reclaimed and continues to the present day. A sea level

higher than the land means an increase in salt water seepage.

A higher sea level means that water in the polders and drainage ditches will

have to be pumped over ever-increasing heights into the North Sea or the inlets

and estuaries that drain into it. Added to that, it is anticipated that precipitation

peaks will be more requent and more severe. In combination, this will lead to

increased demands or water storage and pump capacity.28 From 2050 on, ree

discharge o the IJsselmeer lake into the Wadden Sea will be imperilled and a

combination o pumps and/or increased lake water levels will be necessary.

For the Eastern Scheldt it has been calculated that i no measures are taken,

the mudat area will decline drastically due to the constructed storm surge

barrier that cuts o almost all sediment transport rom the sea into this estuary.

This process is amplifed by sea level rise. I no action is taken, then in a ew

decades the mudats and shallows in the Eastern Scheldt are expected to halve:

rom more than 11,000 ha in 1986 to approximately 5,000 ha in 2045 (and

approximately 1,500 ha in 2100). In that case, salt marshes will only be ound

in sheltered areas o the Eastern Scheldt in 2050.29

Sea level rise will change the natural character o the Wadden Sea. It is assumed

that the natural sediment transport (inow o ood water containing sand and

mud) will be able to maintain the intertidal zones against a sea level rise o30

to 60 cm. The larger the tidal zone, the more sediment it will need and the lower

the sea level rise that can be accommodated naturally. The sea level has risen by

approximately 20 cm during the last century. I it were to rise aster than 30 to

60 cm per century, possibly rom 20502100, it is probable that the intertidal

zones in the relatively large, most westerly parts o the Wadden Sea will be the

frst that will not be able to catch up with the sea level rise, thus losing their

present orm. This will also happen to the salt marshes o the Wadden islands.

Fue 6: Effects f sea level se ad

chaed ve dschae ates

the nethelads daae system,

2100.


34/138


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The Netherlands in the uture


Lelystad


35/138


The Netherlands some day

Social, socioeconomic and demographic developments, added to the urther

growth and distribution o prosperity over the long term, are at least as

signifcant as the physical challenges to water saety. Predictions so ar ahead

(21002200), however, are by defnition highly uncertain. We only have to cast

our minds back to 1900 or 1800 to see how precarious it is to attempt to predict

what the world will look like one or two centuries rom now. Would we have

been able to explain to our grandmothers grandathers what it is like to live in

a world o motorised trafc, trans-Atlantic air travel, electricity, space travel,

ICT and genetic technology?

Scenarios have been developed out to approximately 2040 by a number

o institutions at home and abroad, including planning agencies in the

Netherlands. Uncertainty increases immeasurably as the uture recedes. The

Committee has consulted many authorities on possible long-term uture

scenarios. In the Committees view, the dominant long-term variables are

pressure on space and the preparedness to invest. Pressure on space determines

how easy it will be to fnd solutions or water saety, and the need to fnd

multiunctional solutions. Preparedness to invest will be the upshot o societal

considerations in 2100 or 2200, but will in any case depend strongly on the

state o the economy and the level o prosperity we enjoy at that time.

Besides pressure on space and preparedness to invest, the Committee also points

to the importance o cross-border co-operation, especially with Germany,

and technological developments. The various solutions that the Committee

recommends will be assessed in light o how robust they are in the uture.


36/138


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37/138



38/138



39/138


Around 1800 the Netherlands had roughly 2 million inhabitants and large

parts o the low-lying areas were ooded or months every winter as low-lying

pastures flled with surace drainage water. Every ew years in the decades

around 1800 repeated oods occurred as coastal or river dikes were breached.30

Now, in 2008, we manage to keep more than 16 million inhabitants dry

virtually all the time. Our knowledge o hydraulic engineering and our ability

to make the water ow where we want has increased tremendously through the

centuries. So we can confdently accept the mandate to keep the Netherlands a

prosperous, sae country with sufcient clean water or humans and livestock:

we have the time, the knowledge and the means.

A resh course

The eects o the expected climate change will put ar more pressure on water

saety in our low-lying delta. Moreover, through the years we have come

to regard dierent values as worth preserving; values that perhaps cannot

be expressed in clear monetary terms, like nature and our cultural heritage

(landscape, archaeology and buildings). This orms part o the struggle

towards sustainable development that is so characteristic o the 21st century.

In combination, these actors mean that we have to chart a resh course or

the uture. What is wanted is a living environment where people eel at home,

where businesses eel welcome, where there is space or nature, and where

lie, work and recreation are linked comortably and rapidly by a high-quality

inrastructure. This demands more than saety alone.

While history tells us that we oten need a disaster beore we spring into

action, this is not always true. Furthermore, major physical, inrastructural

decisions have oten been made in the past without any clear knowledge

o all the consequences. Consider the decision to construct the ship canals

Nieuwe Waterweg[New Waterway] and Noordzeekanaal[North Sea Canal].31

Nevertheless, people were convinced that it was a good idea, based as it was on

a powerul vision and a clear picture o the uture.

It is or an attitude like this that the Committee is pleading; let everybody dare

to orm a clear picture o what we can expect and think ahead to the way we

can cope with these challenges. Even better: how can uture opportunities be

created?

3An integrated vision

to create opportunities

Dutch cast at Te Hejde,

just th f the muth f the rhe


40/138


A sustainable view, uture opportunities

The Delta Committee has an integral vision o the long-term protection o

the delta and the spatial planning o the coast and the hinterland. Regional

considerations related to specifc issues must always be weighed against an

integral, national view. The Delta Committees advice is thereore concerned

with the principal water system. The way the recommendations are translated,

though, will oten involve the regions. Moreover, the close involvement o

all sectors o society is an absolute precondition i the necessary investment

decisions are to be supported and sustained. This, too, is an aspect that lends

itsel to being resolved at the regional scale.

I the country is to be made climate-proo, regional exercises must be

approached integrally: resolution o the water issue cannot be seen separately

rom such related matters as nature, landscape and urban development.

The Committees vision orms a bridge between the issues with which it is

conronted and the solutions it outlines. We should not now, at the start o

the 21st century, design a blueprint or the Netherlands at the end o the 22nd

century, but we must leave no opportunities unexploited now that will aord

later generations the conditions or a good living environment. The Delta

Committee is happy to grasp this historical opportunity with both hands and

to present its vision, rom which a Delta Plan, with concrete measures, can be

derived.

Administrators and hydraulic engineers in the Netherlands requently regard

new challenges as a ount o innovation. This does not have to change in the

uture: climate change and sea level rise oer new perspectives. By making

well-considered choices now, no actions will be taken that we might regret later.

Whats more, the odds will increase that we shall achieve our goals.

Our vision o the uture

The Committees vision o the how the Netherlands will look in terms o land

use planning in the distant uture i.e. until the end o the next century can

be stated as ollows. The entire country will remain an attractive place in

which to live, work, invest and take ones leisure. Two pillars on which the

strategy or the next century must be based are saety andsustainability. The

Committee understands sustainability as a determination to use water, energy

and other basic materials as efciently as possible, to maintain or even improve

the quality o the living environment. In moving towards this vision o the

uture, each generation must act in such a way as to provide or its own needs

without imperilling the ability o uture generations to provide or their own

needs. What this means, inter alia, is that government, the business community

and households must be rugal with water, energy, sediment and other basic

materials, ensuring that materials are re-used (closed recycling).


41/138


The countrys planning and development will have to be organised as ar

as possible in accordance with natural processes. New, somewhat dierent

biodiversity and new, attractive landscapes can emerge and ourish i we oer

more space to the dynamics o rivers and the sea. Residential areas, suitably

adapted, can be created in water storage areas, on new land or on dikes. There

are very promising opportunities or various orms o energy generation at sea

and along the coast: windmills, tidal and osmotic energy. The development and

utilisation o sustainable sources o energy will simultaneously cut greenhouse

gas emissions and will permit unctions to be combined.

The coastal conurbation o the Randstad remains our countrys heart. It is

where most o the population lives and where the lions share o our national

income is generated. Also in terms o culture, history and ood supply, the

low-lying part o our country is internationally signifcant. Nature, landscape

and exceptional architecture are and remain valuable goods, whether they are

in the higher or the lower regions o the Netherlands. The major mainports

will continue to make a signifcant contribution to our countrys prosperity.

The Netherlands will remain an international nexus or goods, services and

knowledge. It is not necessary to displace all this, which would anyway destroy

an immense amount o capital.

Sufcient (resh) water will remain available or the most important unctions:

drinking water, agriculture, nature, industry and transport. Both government

and the public take account o water when decisions have to be made; both

the opportunities that water oers or work, living, recreation and investment

as well as the shortage o water (water as a scarce resource), ooding and the

threats o storm surges and river oods.

The best long-term strategy to keep the Netherlands sae and a pleasant

place to live is to develop along with the changing climate. Moving with and

utilising the natural processes where possible leads to solutions that allow

humans and nature to adapt gradually. This urther aords better opportunities

or combined, multiunctional solutions or unctions such as constructing

inrastructure, reserving land or housing and business parks, using land or

agriculture, recreation and nature. These solutions will commonly also be

associated with the lowest long-term construction and maintenance costs.

They will also oten deliver greater added value to society as they create new

possibilities. Changing water levels, or example, oer new opportunities or

recreation as well as interesting housing and business environments. Attempts

to manage nature will continually demand more (and more expensive) eorts.


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a pv y n

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n) n n b

ny:

- n ny u

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n n 1953;

- n ny u quny;

- pn k

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v n un

iJ k).

su: av d [F d

c avy rp], 1960, n wv-

21 u synun [syn p

21 nuy y], 2008.

The rst Delta Committees approach to risk management


Fst stm bae cmpleted ude the Delta ws:

the Hlladse iJssele at kmpe aa de ijssel


43/138


Basic premises

The Committee has adopted a number o basic premises that can serve as a

guide when choosing the paths leading to a uture Netherlands.

The Netherlands remains the worlds saest delta.1.

Where possible we shall move along with the natural developments resulting2.

rom climate change and other natural processes. We shall build and develop

the country as ar as possible in harmony with ecological processes.

The Committee has opted or a broad defnition o water saety, including:3.

people (ood casualties prevention), protection o economic, ecological,

and cultural heritage values, preventing harm to our countrys international

reputation, and preventing social disruption.

Flood prevention and ood risk management are important to the entire4.

country: a catastrophic breach in a dike will disrupt the entire country. Water

saety is a collective, national responsibility. This was so historically and it

will remain so. The government is guarantor. The solidarity principle stems

rom this collective responsibility: everybody, no matter where they live, has

an interest in water saety and thereore contributes fnancially to it. Concern

and care among the present generation increase the opportunities or and cut

the risks to uture generations. This is why inter-generational solidarity is

required.

Flood protection is undertaken in collaboration with our neighbouring5.

countries within the rameworks provided by the EU.

The Committee has chosen to adopt the previous Delta Committees risk-6.

based approach. This implies that water saety measures must be concerned

with limiting both the probability and the consequences o ooding.

The probability o atalities due to a ood must be reduced substantially7.

below the present level.32 The probability o atality due to ooding must not

exceed a basic level or any inhabitant o a ood-prone region (a diked area).

Moreover, the Committee urges that targeted measures be taken to reduce the

probability o a large number o casualties by one ood. The local refnement

o this target can dier per region.

A revised approach to risk management33

The Committee adheres to the approach to risk management that the frst Delta

Committee raised to a undamental premise. Flood risks are managed by a

combination o measures that reduce theprobability (such as high and strong

ood deences) and those that limit the consequences (such as the regulation

o spatial planning, or zoning, compartmentalisation, early warning, crisis

management and contingency planning). The combination o measures is

adjusted to the nature o the potential disaster and the characteristics o the

diked area involved. The approach must be tailor-made. Research conducted

in the context oVeiligheid Nederland in Kaart[Flood Risks and Saety in the

Netherlands]4 oers the necessary acilities. It is proposed that the probability

aspect should remain the primary ocus, since this has been proved to be most

eective.


44/138


The level o ood risk management and ood protection is governed by the

interests to be protected. The frst Delta Committee adhered to a defnition

o saety related only to economic damage and casualties. It is the opinion

o the new Delta Committee that more aspects must be considered. It is the

Committees opinion that the level o protection must be determined by:

~ the individual probability o atality due to ooding;

~ the probability o large numbers o simultaneous casualties;

~ the potential damage, including more than just economic damage.

Water saety: The highest priority

A human lie is worth the same everywhere and the probability o atality due

to ooding must thereore everywhere be fxed at a basic level, to be agreed

by society as a whole. External Saety Policy35 which deals with protecting

people and the environment rom incidents with industrial plant, the transport

and storage o hazardous materials, railway shunting yards, and air trafc

reers to this as the Individual or Local Risk. It is set at 106 (one in a million)

a year. The Committee proposes that this standard should also be maintained

as the basic, universal level o water saety (inside the diked areas). This means

that throughout the (ood-prone) areas o the Netherlands the probability that

someone will die as a result o a ood must not exceed one in a million per year.

At present the probability o large numbers o simultaneous casualties (the

Societal or Group Risk) is many times greater or oods than or the sum total

o all external saety hazards. The Committee fnds this unacceptable. Large

numbers o ood casualties must be avoided. At present there is no accepted

measure o Group Flood Risk.36 For that reason, the Committee urges that

urther research be done to develop a measure o Group Flood Risk.

In the Committees view, the third pillar upon which water saety rests is the

importance o avoiding ood damage. This damage must be assessed according

to our present knowledge and societal considerations. This means that the direct

and indirect costs o a ood must be considered, both inside and outside the

aected area, as well as the monetary value o landscape, natural and cultural

heritage values, damaged reputation and societal disruption. Optimising the

costs and benefts (damage avoided) o protective measures will allow a measure

to be determined or this element, taking the orm o a ood probability.

Together, these three elements must result in a single, amended standard or

ood protection or each diked area. This standard would be expressed in

terms o maximum acceptable ood probability. The ood protection standard

should be reassessed regularly (linked to the EU Directive on the assessement

and management o ood risk), given the predicted changes in the climate

and the potential consequences (due to social and economic developments).

Maintaining this approach upholds the spatial dierentiation between saety

levels introduced by the previous Delta Committee, but with a basic saety level

or all. As the three elements are refned, it may turn out that areas will become

more dierentiated than they are now. In that regard the Committee is o the

opinion that equality must be preserved within linked groups o diked areas,

and thereore that large regional dierentiations are undesirable.


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The way these three elements should be combined into a new standard is not yet

known with certainty. Further refnement is needed. However, the Committee

fnds that saety levels cannot be fxed purely as an exercise in calculation.

In light o what is known now and here the Committee once again stresses

the large societal or group ood risk it is the Committees opinion that the

amended standard must in any case lead to a higher level o ood protection

than the present one. The Committee wishes to make this point absolutely clear.

It is expected that the ood probability in the diked areas in the rivers region

must be cut by a actor o10 in order that everybody shall enjoy the same basic

level o ood protection. Given the present state o our knowledge, the ood

probability in several diked areas, both on the coast and in the downstream

areas o the rivers, must be cut by more than a actor o10 i large numbers o

casualties are to be avoided. Ater careul consideration, it is the Committees

judgement that the ood probability in alldiked areas (the amended ood

protection standard) must be reduced by at least a actor o10 below the

present standards, i.e. saety levels must be increased by a actor o10. These

present standards are interpreted by the Committee as ood probabilities.37 It

is the Committees view that urther refnement o these three elements o the

standard may lead to a actor o less than 10 only i they are based on very solid

grounds indeed. In view o the considerable risk o large numbers o casualties,38

the Committee would rather expect that urther refnement will lead to a greater

actor or the improvement o saety in a number o diked areas.

30. auk vn wu. Het lee lad[t

uny], p. 23.

31. Vn Vn. De neue watee e het

ndzeeaaal: ee aastu[t Nu

w n N s cn: -

n ]. r nu d

c, 2008.

32. i pb py u u -

ny upn y.

33. s appnx4 xnv xpn-

n d c v y

34. t pj V vn Nn n K

[F rk n sy n Nn]

u n n pb-

by n n n k

. mj p pj nvv

n nun, kn

k p n k , n

unn n u kn.

35. t exn sy run (Vrom,

2004) nn y pb k

n.

36. a pn n u vu gup

F rk (Bk .,2008). i

n y p k p k

k np

zu , -

pn n v n n. a

ny p ubny

. mv, py

n nu n z u

un vy.

37. t vy n Fnnn

Py F dn ( Vn c-

) pvn y

by 10 u 9 bn u.

38. Jnkn, s.N., 2008. Schatt gepssc

te beheve va het adves va de Delta-

cmmsse [gup k n

d c v]. m 9t6387.

ao/NN001/902968/r


46/138



47/138


Global warming will continue or centuries even i we were to meet the goals

set down in the Kyoto Protocol and its successors, and even i greenhouse gas

emissions world wide were to be cut drastically tomorrow. So we are sure that

in our low-lying delta on the North Sea we will have to be prepared or the

eects o:

~ sea level rise on protecting the coast o Holland, the Wadden region and the

South-western Delta;

~ higher river discharges on protecting the rivers region;

~ increased salination and lower river discharges in summer on securing the

resh water supply;

~ sea level rise on the intertidal zone in the Wadden Sea and the South-western

Delta;

~ all o these combined with subsidence.

In the Committees view, developing with climate change and other ecological

processes is the most sensible strategy to counter the eects o climate change.

Key concepts in this strategy are gradual action, exibility (ability to guide the

activities), a knowledge o natural processes and cost-eectiveness. The best

opportunity or both people and nature to stay abreast o changing conditions

involves working with natural processes, building with nature, where possible.

Over the long term this will bring the lowest costs, too. Generally, it should

be noted that i resh water becomes scarcer in the uture, it will be necessary

to fnd more space or storage. It is expected that increased scarcity will drive

up the price o resh water, which will contribute to the innovations needed

to handle water more eectively. The Delta Committee underscores the

importance o societys close involvement in the countrys water saety. The

essential approach to ood protection and sustainable resh water supply will

only become a reality i society the population and the business community

handles its water conscientiously and with care.

The Committee can see three time horizons to which its recommendations

apply:

~ concrete measures or the period out to 2050;

~ a clear vision or the period out to 2100;

~ longer term considerations beyond 2100.

For the short term, the Committee believes that it is realistic to extrapolate

rom the present and the past, using available scenarios. This is more difcult

or the medium term (20502100), since the trend may well be clear, but the

rate o climate change is still very uncertain. But we have to get in position

now or what lies ahead beyond 2050, so the Committee thinks it is sensible to

4Working on the future:

developing with the climate

Texel


48/138


extrapolate here, too, and has thereore made concrete recommendations or

this period as well. The Committee notes in this regard, though, that certain

recommendations (post-2050) may be cast in a totally dierent light i the

scenarios develop very dierently rom present expectations. Extrapolation

over the very long term is not realistic and or this time scale the approach

should be to look back rom possible uture scenarios (hindcasting) to test

whether measures may be eective in dierent utures.

Beore setting down short and medium-term recommendations in a Delta

Programme, we sketch the choices that the Netherlands has made in the past,

which have lead to our present, interlinked water system. This is ollowed by a

number o possible, preliminary choices or an integral water system in the remote

uture. All the choices that are to be made are based on the present situation:

our present, interlinked water system with the associated design that allows it to

ulfl the dierent use unctions. At the same time, the short and medium-term

recommendations in this report have been chosen so that as many options as

possible remain open in the long term, so uture generations will still have room

to make their own considered choices, based on the insights and values o their

time.

In its report the Committee has indicated which measures are unavoidable

in the long term and how we can anticipate them today (no-matter-what

measures). Reserving space and money or later is an essential component o

this strategy. The challenge is to develop those solutions that will deliver more

added value to society as a whole, whenever possible at reasonable cost. The

approach to water saety issues, ater all, oers opportunities to urther develop

or unite other interests and unctions, such as agriculture, nature, recreation,

housing, accessibility and energy supply.

Our water system: product o centuries o work

The inhabitants o the Low Countries started more than 1,000 years ago

to adopt such measures as drainage and land reclamation to cut the risk o

ooding and to allow or improve agriculture. Over the centuries lakes have been

drained, especially in the Holland Provinces, the last being the Haarlemmermeer

lake, which was drained with steam pumping engines. In the mid 19th century

they chose to connect the dockyards in Amsterdam to the North Sea via locks

that cut o tidal ow in the North Sea Canal. In the Rotterdam region at the

end o the 19th century they started to build the Nieuwe Waterweg to allow ree

access to the Port o Rotterdam. The Rhine and Meuse discharge through the

Nieuwe Waterweg and the Haringvliet.

The oods in 1916 (Zuiderzee) and 1953 (South-western Delta) led to radical

measures to shorten the coastline: construction o the Asluitdijk [IJsselmeer

dam] and the Delta Works. The Wadden Sea and the Western Scheldt are now

the only two natural systems that remain open to the inuence o currents,

tides and waves. What characterises the measures o the past century is their

multiunctional, integral approach. These brought major advantages to the

resh water supply (via the IJsselmeer lake), agriculture (vast tracts o new land)

and ood protection (up to and including Amsterdam). The measures also

resulted in the islands in Zeeland being connected to the mainland and each

other, and to the development o recreation, water sports and nature reserves.

This is how an intensively used, closely regulated water system came into being


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in the Netherlands. Flood protection is aorded by rings o dikes.

The northern provinces are characterised by control o the resh water level o

the major lakes (IJmeer, Markermeer and IJsselmeer) and by a natural Wadden

Sea. The Committee believes that these choices will remain deensible over the

medium and even the very long term.

The need to lead the river water via the South-west Netherlands has its origin in

the historical design o the water system. The Committee can see that, even in

the medium term, routing part o the peak river discharge through the Nieuwe

Waterweg will lead to difcult-to-resolve saety problems in Rotterdam and the

towns in the surrounding area (the Drechtsteden). This is why the Committee

makes recommendations to protect the region rom extreme conditions both

at sea and in the rivers, so peak discharges will be led in their entirety through

the South-western Delta. Over the very long term, given a higher than predicted

sea level rise and low economic growth, it may become a real option to close

the Nieuwe Waterweg permanently. Shipping would then have to pass through

locks.

For the period out to 2050 the Committee can see possibilities to reinorce

the estuarine nature o the South-western Netherlands, taking into account

the routing o peak river discharges, resh water supply and sae

Working Together With Water Nether Land

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