Working Group on Nowcasting Research Report
description
Transcript of Working Group on Nowcasting Research Report
Working Group on Nowcasting Research Report
Paul Joe
WWRP JSC 21-24 Feb 2011 Geneva
Outline
• CAS XV/Gaps• Committee• Symposia• Advancing the Science - FDP/RDP’s• Capacity Building • Related Projects• Specialty Meetings• New Initiatives
– Lake Victoria– South East Asia– INCA – CE– Regional Training Center for Nowcasting (Brazil)
Gaps and CAS XV Decisions• “Advise, promote, advance, publish, convene, capacity build”• Advancing the Science
– Expanding the accuracy, precision, predictability/blending, heuristic, data assimilation and high resolution models
– Applications: Convective weather/initiation, multi-element, winter, complex terrain, hydrology, aviation
– Observational science, measurement errors for nowcasting (in situ, remote sensing – radar QC and QPE),
– Understanding (conceptual models; complex terrain, etc) • Hydrology Links - MAP-D Phase (coupling) and INCA-CE FDP?• Integrated Nowcasting: Satellite rainfall and nowcasting,
lightning nowcasting (particularly related to developing countries),
• Forecast systems: decision making and system design in the nowcast process; links to PWS and operations, system design, seamless (links to aviation, hydrology, etc)
• OPERA Radar Data Exchange (Nowcasting Requirements)• Technology and knowledge demonstration
Committee Membership
Ttom Keenan Steve Goodman Thomas Haiden Ted Nakazawa Augusto Pereira Paul Joe
Slobodan Nickovic Alan Seed Jenny Sun Marianne Koenig Jian Jie Wang Peter Li Jim Wilson(a)
Convene Nowcasting Symposia
WSN09 Environment Canada, Whistler, BC, George Isaac/Paul Joe
WSN05 Toulouse, France, Meteo-France, Stephane Senesi
WSN12 Rio de Janiero, INPE/USP, Augusto Pereira 20-24 August 2012
QPE/QPF 3, Nanjing, China, Oct 2010, Brown/Lu
Promote, Advance, Capacity Build FDP / RDP’s Initiatives
Sydney 2000 1999-2002
MAP D2005-2008
Beijing 20082005-2009
To demonstrate the capability of modern forecast systems and to quantify the associated benefits in the delivery of very short term weather forecasts
Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region entire forecasting chain ranging from limited-area ensemble forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling (km-scale), hydrological modelling, and nowcasting to decision making by the end users, i.e., an end-to-end forecasting system
Implement advanced high impact weather and precipitation nowcast systems providing an enhance weather service for B08 with demonstration of impact
Capacity Building Workshop - early 2012
Initiative to drive journal publications.
2010 Nowcasting InitiativesShanghai World EXPO 2010Nowcasting Service Demonstration
Project (WENS) 2008-2011
In the context of the multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS), to demonstrate how nowcasting applications can enhance short-range forecasts of high-impact weather using the opportunity afforded by the World EXPO 2010
SNOW-V10RDP 2009-2011
Focus is to improve our ability to produce short term or Nowcasts (within 6h) of high impact winter weather over complex terrain in association with the Vancouver 2010
Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games.
WENS Capacity Building Nov 2011
SNOW-V10 Final Seminar 2012?
Sochi2014 RDP/FDP ?
Warm start reduces the cross-over point in blended systems!
Benjamin et al, WSN09
B08: Too low to be useful for “call to action” decisions
Predictability is a function of scale!
Alan Seed
Capacity Building WorkshopsSydney 2000Australia
Brazilia, Brazil 2003
Pretoria, 2005South African Weather Service
Palm Cove, 2006Asia-Pacific Region
Other Related Projects• Joint Nowcasting,
Applications and Service (JONAS)– CBS/PWS– WWRP co-chair– Test Beds– Service
• Commission of Instruments, Methods and Observations– Radar Quality Control and
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Inter-comparison Project
– 14-15 April 2011, Exeter– RQQI pronounced Rickey
Non-QC QC
WENS
Perfect Radar
Forecast SystemsScience, Process, Production and Service
• Forecasting Systems and End User Requirements-Definition of outputs and functionality– nowcasting– short-medium term– hydrology– advanced user needs and capacity building;
• Requirements for Forecast Process and Decision Support for Forecasts and warnings– Using Guidance and Observations, NWP, EPS Use, MOS Direct Model output– Conceptual models – Integration of Decision support in meteorological Process– Visualisation – Verification– Training with emphasis on process use of applications and systems
• Man Machine Mix Issues- – Optimising Role of human in forecast process and potential of NWP/Automation
• Approaches to Forecast System development– (manual, matrix, object grid etc)– digital forecast databases, user interaction etc
• Forecast Sub-Systems and Applications – Automatic Text generation– Graphical product– Dissemination and communication techniques
• Potential contributors to the meeting should be decided upon by CAS and CBS.
•In principle agreement was obtained at the 8th WWRP SSC (2005) to conduct a technical forum of invited experts to facilitate the development of a position paper on Forecasting Systems.
•Little progress, priority and funding•How to progress this?
JONAS MissionCBS/PWS + WWRP
Increase the capacity of NMHS’s to deliver reliable nowcasts to enable informed decision-making in mitigating the effects of high impact weather and weather-related disasters.
Links for legacy of WGNR
Specialty MeetingsClosing the Gap /Advancing the Science
• Mesoscale-Nowcasting Working Group Specialty Meeting– Meeting approved– Boulder, Colorado– Dates 2011 TBD– Jenny Sun and Dale Barker– High Resolution, Spin up, Parameterizations, Data Assimilation
• 2nd Heuristic Nowcasting– Meeting approved by WGNR– Montreal, Canada– Dates TBD 2012– Alan Seed and Isztar Zawadzki– Probabilistic/Ensemble Nowcasting– Blending– Phase and Intensity
Lake Victoria Project• Executive Council approves recomendation to develop
research project– Basin dynamics– Generation of HIW– How to save lives
• Dr. Samwei Marigi/Dr. Dave Parsons– Fisherman have no radios, dissemination an major issue -> cell
phones– Need for Conceptual Model– Data Sparse
• Option 1:– SERVIR
• Option 2– Radar deployment to demonstrate benefits (forecast skill and
user benefits)• Related Projects
– Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP) in implementation phase
– Mobile Weather Alert (MWA) Pilot– Many more… (project overload)
• Radar status unclear (Uganda, Tazania)• Severe weather Service Gaps
– Knowledge– Observation– Understanding (Nocturnal thunderstorms– Technology (Lake surface temperature; CASA, OTG)
• Piggy back on SWFDP (later than sooner)• JONAS or WWRP (WGNR, WGMW, SERA) to fill
understanding gap first• Expert Team Visit required
Fisherman
-Deaths (5000 deaths/yr)
-Warning Service?
Lake Victoria Events
• In May 1996, a passenger ferry M.V. Bukoba capsized while on its way to Mwanza in Tanzania killing around 800 people
• MV Kabelega sunk on 8th May 2005 and though no life was lost, consumer produce in the tune of 800 tons was lost.
• Grounding of M.V. Thor at Ghana island on 24th March 2006 loaded with 300,000 litres of petroleum products
• Capsizement and sinking of M. V. Nyamageni on 21st April 2006
• In 22nd July 2010.Passenger boat capsized on Ugandan side of the lake and 50 people are feared dead. Survivors tale of strong waves that hit the vessel, shattering it into pieces.
• 200,000 fisherman and 5000 deaths per year
Samwei Marigi
Lightning due to thunderstorms in weak forcing situations (Lake Breeze)
Nocturnal
Daytime
Albrecht, Goodman
Goodman
Objective:
Utilise mobile phone technology to develop a sustainable warning service that reduces the vulnerability of communities in the Lake Victoria Region to weather hazards.
Mobile Weather Alert Project
Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technologyTom Butcher
Key Outcomes
(1) Integrated
Observations
(2) Severe Weather
Forecasting
(3) Communication
via mobile phone
(4) Stakeholder Engagement
(5) Socio-economic benefits analysis
• Drawing upon Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project and other initiatives, clearly defined processes for the delivery of pilot warnings and forecasts established and implemented.
Mobile Weather Alert: Community weather information via mobile technology
Q: Any existing “call to action” warning service?
Q: Knowledge of localize severe weather? Technology? Radar?
Need to assess capabilities, service, knowledge, modes of collaboration!
Tom Butcher
Discussion• WGNR providing support to the MWA
to demonstrate how/which satellite products could be used (already EUMETSAT training done)
• Need to assess situation on options (Sat-Lightning demonstration; Understanding field/forecast project).
• Piggyback and extend on SWFDP and MWA projects; WWRP join next science/planning meeting?
• Note – many projects in the area!
Need feedback. KMD waiting for WMO/WWRP response
CASA:Off The GridRadar (UPR)“solar”Low CostLow infrastructureLow Maintenance ???
Sandra Cruz-Pol, UPR
South East Asia• Contact by staff member of VHMS (HP Lam) to
conduct a FDP in Vietnam• Weather Radar Modernization• Email/Phone discussions• Finnish Met Institute is providing aid to Vietnam• SWFDP in formulation stage
– NWG piggyback and fill gap of SWFDP (0-12)– MWG piggyback and fill gap of SWFDP (6-12)
• Many unknowns – culture gap, – technology gap– Service gap– knowledge gaps
• JONAS Activity• Expert Team Visit
Existing
Proposed
2010-2020
Cairns, 2007
> 100 Thunderstorm Days
> 100 days in all regions of Vietnam
NCHMF – no tools for nowcasting (TITAN/TIFS)
Need Severe Weather Systems and Expertise
Suggestion for Next StepsSuggestion for Next Steps1. FMI did a good review and assess about current status of VHMS
nowcasting system2. FMI is going to do some training courses of radar using and
interpreting in 20113. What should be done next?
• More training with real events of Vietnam after modernization project (when radars, AWS, automatic raingauge and NWP products… are available)
• Improve nowcasting system in Vietnam from National to Regional and even Provincial levels by setting up a easy-to-use system.
• Radar data sharing between neighbour countries.
CBS/PWS initiating a SWFDP in this area
Joint SWFDP/WWRP with Nowcasting component under JONAS umbrella?
Need to assess the warning, knowledge, technology, etc
INCA -CE
Explore possibility to be WWRP FDP?Yong Wang
Brazil: RTC-N/Test BedAverage of 20 floods per year in Sao Paolo
800-1000 deaths Serrana Jan 2011
Regional Training Centre - Nowcasting
• Request made several years ago (Augusto Pereira/USP)• Envision an advance course/post basic training on
nowcasting - severe weather, urban, hydrology • Housed at U of Sao Paolo
– Classrooms, radar facilities– Target – South America– Invite “S2K/B08” systems and experts
• Opportunity: FDP or Test Bed for nowcasting systems ?? – focus on urban, hydrology HIW
Detailed project concept and implementation plan being prepared.
Support by Ministry of Science and Technology. Interested in FDP/Testbed in Rio de Janiero and Sao Paolo. Pilot FDP using CARDS. Visit Canada in March.
RTC-N -> Nowcasting (Verification, SERA) Test Bed
Feedback from JSC?
Radar Modernization
Discussion
• Forecast Systems Workshop
• Lake Victoria
• South East Asia
• South America Regional Training Centre – Nowcasting / FDP / Testbed
Nowcasts leads to a “call to action”
disaster (Flood/Landslide)
1 hour before
3-6 hours before
evacuation
Nowcast (Anal) >warning
VSRF (Anal+NWP) >caution
Met. Information
1-2 days before
SRF(NWP) >Outlook
Local Government
Citizen
Stand byReady to take action
preparation
Action for recovery
Cancel warning
Back to normal (recovery)
Action for disaster prevention
Precip. Intensity
Keep in mind
Is the skill of our forecast fulfilling their needs?
Courtesy, Shingo Yamada JMA
•Advise
•Promote Nowcasting
•Advance the Science
•Publish and Convene
•Capacity Build and Technology Transfer
Mandate of WGWWRP Strategic Plan
Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System
Temperature Perturbation, Winds, 35 dBZ Echo Nowcast
Jenny Sun
Radar
No Radar ForecastLength
Verification period23 June – 25 Aug 2008
30 dBZ reflectivityon HRRR 3-km grid
HRRR reflectivity verificationSkill vs. forecast length
CS
I
All HRRR forecasts
WSN09 Evaluation of the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): an hourly updated convection resolving model utilizing radar reflectivity assimilation from the RUC/RR Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, Tanya Smirnova, Curtis Alexander, Doug
Koch, John Brown, Kevin Brundage, Barry Schwartz, Ming Hu, Susan Sahm, Brian Jamison NOAA ESRL
Impact of Radar Data on NWP
Weygandt et alWSN09
Impact of Radar Data on NWP
ECMWF 1d+4dVAR12h Window T511 L6020May-20 June 2005Hourly RR 4 km NCEP gridRain-1d VAR, moisture increments vertically integrated for pseudo TCWV-assim-with 4DVARNew-CNTRL 4dVAR TCWV analysesWell structured drying and moisteningForecasts: Clear improvement over NA first 3 daysImprovement over Europe days 7-8
Current Use of Radar in DACentre NWP System Resolution
(km)Forecast Length
Met Office
UKV+3dVAR(3hr) 1.5 36hx4
Meteo France
AROME+3dVAR(3 hr)
2.5 30hx4
JMA Mesoscale Model (MSM)+4dVAR
5 15hX4, 33hx4
NOAA/
NCEP
Rapid Refresh +(RR)+3dVAR(1h)
3 18hx24
DWD COSMO-DE+3dVAR 2.8 18hx8
Partial list of international research efforts into the use of radar data in operational NWP systems
Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa (status/progress)WMO
Project develop in progress Focus on:
Strong winds Heavy precipitation Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria)
Users: general public, agriculture and fishery communities Domains: (TBC)
5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria)
Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia Possible start-up 2011
Peter ChenProvides “outlook”
SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings
• Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds • Forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) • Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS),
Agriculture (incl. Fishery-Lake Victoria, AgM)• High-impact focus (flash-flooding, wind damage, dry-
spells) • Forecast Verification• Other developments (phased-in)
• Technological gaps: – Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events – Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h)– Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations
Proposed SWFDP – Eastern Africa
Satellite Imagery and Tools
WM
O S
P
Tailored forecasting products for farmers and fishermen
(e.g. statistical downscaling)
AgM
PWS + HWR
General Public, nearshore
vessels, Media and Disaster Management
Farmers and fishermen
AgM
MMO + AeM Navigation and Rescue
MH-EWS
Dissemination of Weather Information
Flash Flood Guidance
RS
MC
Nai
rob
i
Glo
bal
Cen
tres
(EC
MW
F, M
et O
ffic
e (U
K),
US
A
fric
an D
esk,
DW
D)
DW
D,
UK
MO
, TM
A
Nat
ion
al M
et C
entr
es(K
enya
, Tan
zan
ia, U
gan
da,
R
wan
da,
Bu
run
di,
Eth
iop
ia)
Global NWP/EPS
LAM, Ver.
GuidanceProducts
GDPFSP
WS
HW
R
Understand the weather dynamics
over the lakeW
WR
P
Lightning Initiation: Conceptual Idea
12
9
6
3Height (km)
Satellite Detection
12
9
6
3
Time
Radar Detection
CI Forecast without satellite
CI Forecast with satellite
30-45 min
to 75 min
What is the current LI forecast lead time?
LI Forecast?
Up to ~60 min added lead time
for LI using GOES
Lead time increases with slower growing cumulus clouds (i.e. low CAPE environments)
42John Mecikalski/ UAH
43
World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN)
Operated by U. Wash.50 + sites worldwidePotential for site in Kenya
Bob Holzworth
• Data and Models• Online Maps• Visualizations• Decision Support• Training• Partnerships
Mapping Fires in Guatemala Mexico
Training and Capacity Building
Flood Forecasting in Africa
SERVIR
Collaboration between NASA and USAID to enable the use of earth observations and models for timely
decision making to benefit society
A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC
• Spatially distributed hydrologic model CREST, developed by University of Oklahoma
• Based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model• Spatial resolution ~1km• Uses near real-time satellite rainfall estimates from TRMM to produce soil
moisture, evapotranspiration and streamflow• SERVIR-east Africa makes real time model outputs for a watershed in Lake
Victoria basin
Nzoia River in the Lake Victoria Basin
CREST model
SERVIR Hydrologic Modeling
Modeled Evapotranspiration
A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC
• Work in underway to expand the spatial extent of CREST runs to Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) domain (~2000 x 2300 km)
• Spatial resolution: 1km
• KMD rainfall and temperature forecasts, available hourly at 1/8 spatial resolution, to provide boundary conditions.
• Forecasted soil moisture, evapotranspiration and streamflow will enable KMD to issue early flood warning, especially in the flood prone watersheds in western Kenya.
• KMD intends to use the modeled fields to initialize the next model run
SERVIR Hydrologic Forecasting
A. Limaye/D. Irwin MSFC
Preparedness to Climate Variability and Change, Natural Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, and Enhanced Food Security
Improving the technical and scientific capabilities of the NMHSs of the respective countries to provide weather/climate information, products and services in support of key economic sectors
Ethiopia, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia
Finland
Severe weather forecasting demonstration project (Eastern Africa)
Enhanced use of outputs of Numerical Weather Prediction Systems for improved forecasts and warnings of hazardous weather conditions
Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda,Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda
World Bank, WMO
WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region
Climate Observations and Regional Modelling Support of Climate Risk Management and Sustainable Development
The proposed programme is intended to help the NMHS in GHA countries assemble the necessary climate observations and to understand and use regional climate modelling--that can help GHA countries design adaptation policies and reduce climate-associated risks.
Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania
World Bank
Regional Climate Framework in Eastern Africa to support adaptation to climate change
Establishment of a Regional Climate Information Framework in Eastern Africa to support adaptation to climate change with the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC, Nairobi, Kenya) is a key element.
Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania
KOICAPhase I completedPhase II under development
WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region
Mobile Weather AlertWeather forecasts and warnings via mobile communications
PILOT - To utilise mobile phone technology, including infrastructure, services and applications, to develop and demonstrate a sustainable warning service that reduces the vulnerability to weather hazards of communities in the Lake Victoria Region.
Uganda, Tanzania
EricssonWBNorway?
Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project (LVEMP II)
Proposes to scale up Uganda Mobile Weather Alert Pilot including investment in Lake Obs
Proposes investment in NMHS development in Rwanda and Burundi
Kenya, Uganda, TanzaniaRwanda, Burundi
World Bank
WMO Donor Projects in Lake Victoria Region
Nowcasting in Vietnam
• July 2010, Hanoi – Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain
• Data: – Satellite images (MTSAT, FY2):
about 15 minutes/image– 3 reflectivity radars: Việt Trì, Phủ
Liễn, Nội Bài– synoptic observations (every 3
hours or telephone (if required))– 15 automatic rain-gauges (since
Oct 2010)• Information Transmission to Public:
– NCHMF Website– Radio channel (Voice of Vietnam –
VOV) (live interview)
First Challenge in 2010First Challenge in 20101000 years Anniversary of Hanoi Capital (01st – 10th October, 2010)NCHMF and AMO coordinate implementationDetails:- 15 automatic raingauges and 02 temporary AWSs in Ba Đình and Mỹ Đình areas- Test period: 20th Sep – 30th Sep, 2010- In normal conditions:
- Warning issued every 6 hours - Information sent directly to Local Organization Committee via email and fax
- In thunderstorm / heavy rain conditions:- Warning issued every 0.5 - 1hours- Information was published on NCHMF website and VOV radio channel also
Need Nowcasting tools to aid the forecaster.
Related ProjectsRelated Projects1. VHMS and FMI project (PROMOSERV) on:
• Maintenance and calibration of automatic weather stations,
• use of radars, • and career development of personnel
2. VHMS and KMA project on:• Forecaster’s Analysis System (FAS) for
Vietnam• Typhoon join-Research in which KMA
support Vietnam TAPS-2 (Typhoon Analysis and Prediction System)
3. 2010 – 2012 Modernization project of VHMS4. WWRP FDP ??? – culture change!!!
First Idea of Nowcasting ImplementationFirst Idea of Nowcasting Implementation
- Attending “Radar and Nowcasting Workshop” in Cairns, Australia, 1-4 Aug 2007 hosted by BoM and Gematronik-Working with Mr. Tom Yoshida, retired Meteorologist in charge of Guam Meteorology Department in 02 radar interpretation training workshop in Hanoi (2005 and 2008)- Nowcast experiment in 2010- 2010 – 2012 Modernization Project of HMS on:
- Observation network- automatic stations (focus on Hanoi area)- 4 – 5 doppler radars (new and upgrade)
- Telecommunication system- Data processing and archive system- Regional/ city NWP models- Forecasting Technology-…
Hopefully, all data will be available for operational system!
NCHMF need a tool for nowcasting! I suggested VHMS to use TITAN and/or TIFS
Current operational nowcasting programs only focus on summer convection!
• U.S. ~1952
• Canada ~1980
• Australia ~1990
• China ~2003
• Romania ~2003
• Germany 2005
• Japan 2008