Workforce Systems Innovation Strategies...Direct an interagency workgroup to develop a system-wide,...

PWIG Approved 2/5/14

Work Group Recommendation January2014

February2014

March2014

April2014

May2014

June2014

July2014

August2014

September2014

October2014

November2014

December2014

January2015

February2015

March2015

April2015

May2015

June2015

July2015

Requires OWIB

Adoption

Requires Legislation

State Budgeting Dates

Budgeting Calendar released

Final Agency Requested

Budgets

Incumbant Governor's

Budget

Governor-Elect Budget

Legislative Dates01/15-01/17 02/03-02/28

03/09 Constitutional

Sine Die 05/28-05/30 09/15-09/17 12/8-12/10

1/5/2015 Session Begins Session Session Session Session Session

Dates to Consider01/13 LC return deadline; 01/21

LC drop deadline

02/12 Revenue forecast

05/20 Primary Election

11/04 General Election

Direct an interagency workgroup to develop a system-wide, state-level balanced score card by June 2014

In partnership with Local Workforce Investment Boards, create a process to cascade state level metrics to the local level so that local

boards can monitor performance and prioritize strategies and resources to maximize results for job seekers.

Convene workforce system partners to conduct a system wide review of existing workforce and employmetn related programs,

services and policies for persons living at or below the poverty line and those chronically un/underemployed.

x

Direct the workforce system partners to develop a statewide workforce policy for persons with disabilities, persons living at or

below the poverty line and the chronically un/underemployed that establishes a goals for improved workforce services. 5) Direct the workforce system system agencies to submit a biennial report to

the Governor charting the progress in achieving outcomes for persons with disabilities, persons living at or below the poverty line

and the chronically un/underemployed as well as documenting special initiatives and efforts to implement best practices.

x

Budget Process (STEELE)

Update the Oregon Employment Department (OED) as Oregon's lead agency for workforce programs, including the relocation of the state WIA Title I-B and Oregon Youth conservation Corps programs

to OED. (Pending 2015 Legislative Session)

x

Enhance the role of the OWIB withing the workforce system, including making it the advisory committee to a newly redefined Oregon Employment Department, through legislation in the 2014

Legislation Session.

x x

Dedicate professional staff for the OWIB located at OED. x x

Establish clear collaborative relationships with the other state advisory bodies whose missions include workforce development. x

Strengthen the role sof the LWIBS by entering into charters that clearly spell out the roles and responsibilities of the LWIB as well as

the commitments of the state agencies and the OWIB in supporting the LWIB.

Approve a dispute resolution process to resolve disagreements between state agencies and the LWIBs.

Create a workforce system innovation and capacity building function within OED. x

Develop and integrate information systems to ensure that the state agencies have the tools necessary for service delivery. x x

Challenge state agencies and LWIBs to find local opportunities to pilot new models of service delivery across the workforce system

programs. x

Balanced Scorecard (BLUE)

Special Populations (PURPLE)

OWIB Transformation

(GREEN)

LWIB Recharter/ Redistrict (GOLD)

Innovation Function (TEAL)

Workforce Systems Innovation Strategies

Direct an interagency workgroup to develop a balanced score card by 6/14

Enhance Role of OWIB within workforce system

Dedicate Professional OWIB staff at OED

Establish clear collaborative relationships with the other state advisory bodies

Strengthen LWIBs role - agencies to enter into charters w/roles & responsibilities, state agencies & OWIB commitment ; Direct the LWIBs & workforce agencies create compacts that clarify performance for local community programs

Approve an agency/ LWIB dispute resolution process

Create a workforce system innovation and capacity building function within OED

Develop & integrate information systems to ensure that the state agencies have the tools necessary for service delivery

Create a process for a state-level matrix w/ LWIBs

Conduct a system-wide review with workforce partners

Agencies develop aligned statewide workforce policy for special populations Workforce system agencies to submit a biennial report on achieving outcomes special populations

Agencies and LWIBS to identify and pilot new service delivery models phase I

Agency budget preparation for OED tansition to lead agency for workforce programs to reflect Governor's direction

Agencies and LWIBS to identify and pilot new service delivery models phase II

Oregon Workforce Investment Board 2014 Legislative Update

Key Workforce Bills

HB 4018 - Moves Department of Community Colleges and Workforce Development into Higher Education Coordinating Commission, effective July 1, 2015. The bill also establishes the Task Force on Integrating the Department of Community Colleges and Workforce Development into the Higher Education Coordinating Commission. HB 4058 - Amends the 40-40-20 education goals to include apprenticeship programs registered with State Apprenticeship and Training Council. SB 1527 – Directs the Oregon Business Development Department, in coordination with local workforce investment boards, to contract with private or public entities to develop Dislocated Worker Training Program as pilot program to enable unemployed and underemployed engineers and industry professionals in bioscience and manufacturing traded sector industries to be reemployed in Oregon. Allocates $250,000 in Lottery Funds. SB 1566 – Workforce Redesign Bill. Key changes include:

• Declares state public policy to promote coordinated provision of education, employment, economic development and job training.

• Adds a member of a local workforce investment board to the state board (OWIB).

• Requires the OWIB to consult and collaborate with organizations serving persons with disabilities, living in poverty, and the chronically unemployed and underemployed.

• OWIB works with local boards to increase efficiencies and “align workforce programs and services with local needs.”

• Gives the OWIB new responsibilities: o Primary advisory committee to the Employment Department (OED). o Coordination with Oregon Education Investment Board and Oregon Business

Development Commission. o Hold state workforce agencies and local workforce boards accountable for meeting

performance goals and system outcomes.

• Gives OWIB authority to enter into performance compacts with local boards.

• Adds requirements for local workforce plans, including having the plan be submitted to and approved by the OWIB.

• Requires OED to support efforts of local workforce boards through labor market information activities.

Questions - Melissa Leoni, Government Relations Manager ([email protected] or 503-947-1732)

mailto:[email protected]

Other Workforce Agency Bills

Community Colleges and Workforce Development HB 4116 - Directs CCWD and HECC to jointly establish grant program for purpose of distributing moneys to community colleges to increase number of underserved, low-income, and first-generation college-bound students who enroll in community college and make progress toward degree or certificate. HB 4019 – Directs community colleges to provide an internet website link for students to access the institution’s fact sheet regarding affordability and value of the institution SB 1524 - Directs Higher Education Coordinating Commission to examine viability of program allowing students who graduated from high school in state or who completed grade 12 to attend community college for specified period without paying tuition and fees. SB 1574 - Clarifies that standards for dual credit programs must establish manner by which students in grades 9 through 12 may earn course credit for both high school and community college or public university. Employment Department HB 4023 - Permits private, nonpublic employer to give preference in hiring and promotion of employees to veterans and certain spouses.

Questions - Melissa Leoni, Government Relations Manager ([email protected] or 503-947-1732)


Job Opportunities for Many: Broad-Based Job Growth in Oregon

Industry and Occupational Employment Projections Through 2022

Oregon Workforce Investment BoardMarch 14, 2014

The Top Ten Things You Should Know About Oregon’s 2012-2022 Employment

Projections

1. Oregon will add 258,000 jobs over the next ten years, a 15.3% increase over the 2012 levels.

The projected growth will take us far beyond our pre-recession employment levels.

∗ 258,000 jobs over ten years is well above the 100,000 jobs added in the past 10 years.

∗ 15% growth over ten years is stronger than the 6% growth seen over the past decade

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2022

His

toric

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Em

ploy

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Oregon to Add 258,000 Jobs by 2022

Source: Oregon Employment Department

Private-sector growth (17%) will outpace public-sector growth (9%).

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2012 2022

Private and Public Shares of Total Employment Stable

Public

Private83%

16%

84%

17%

∗ A key theme of most projections: Things Change Slowly.

∗ Continuing population growth.∗ The need to replace baby boom retirees (even though

many will work longer than planned).∗ Continued growth in health care, in part because of

those aging baby boomers.∗ Strong growth in construction, recovering from large

recession losses.

Key Factors

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2. All industry sectors are projected to add jobs.

Policy implication: job opportunities across a wide range of industries.

Generally, Oregon’s largest industries will add the most jobs.

2012 2022 Change % ChangeTotal payroll employment 1,685,300 1,943,200 257,900 15%Professional and business services 201,200 248,400 47,200 23%Health care and social assistance 204,100 249,400 45,300 22%Trade, transportation, and utilities 311,200 345,100 33,900 11%Leisure and hospitality 169,800 198,300 28,500 17%Local government 180,500 201,200 20,700 11%Construction 70,100 90,300 20,200 29%Manufacturing 172,100 191,200 19,100 11%Financial activities 90,800 103,000 12,200 13%Natural resources and mining 52,700 62,000 9,300 18%Other services 58,300 65,700 7,400 13%State government 80,200 87,400 7,200 9%Private educational services 33,900 39,900 6,000 18%Information 32,300 34,700 2,400 7%Federal government 28,100 26,600 -1,500 -5%Source: Oregon Employment Department

Oregon Long-Term Employment Projections by Major Industry, 2012-2022

Computer systems design, nursing and residential care facilities, and ambulatory care facilities drive the growth in the professional/business and health sectors.

∗ Federal government is the only industry projected to decline, largely due to losses in postal employment

-10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Federal government

Information

Private educational services

State government

Other services

Natural resources and mining

Financial activities

Manufacturing

Construction

Local government

Leisure and hospitality

Trade, transportation, and utilities

Health care and social assistance

Professional and business services

All Oregon Private Industry Sectors Expected to Add Jobs, 2012-2022


Construction will grow the fastest, at 29 percent.

∗ Fast construction growth due in part to a late rebound from deep recessionary job losses

∗ Slowest-growing industries include information (7%) and state government (9%)

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

Federal government

Information

State government


Manufacturing

Local government

Other services



Natural resources and mining




Construction

All Oregon Private Industry Sectors Expected to Add Jobs, 2012-2022


3. Even with growth, some industries will not make it back to their pre-recession employment levels.

Policy implication: there may not be “jobs for everyone” in the industries from which they came.

Despite its strong growth, construction will not return to its pre-recession employment level by 2022. Nor will manufacturing, financial activities, or information.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2022

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Oregon Industries Not Returning to Pre-Recession Level by 2022

Manufacturing


Construction

Information


On a brighter note, many industries will regain and surpass their pre-recession employment levels.

Health care and private educational services never really had a recessionary slump.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2022

Oregon Industries Growing Past Pre-Recession Level by 2022






Other services


Hist

oric

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Empl

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4. In addition to roughly 260,000 job openings due to economic growth, there will also be almost 400,000 openings from what we call “replacements”.

Policy implication: Workforce planning is not just about training workers for “new jobs”. It’s also about planning for retirements and other departures.

While there will be many job openings in high-wage, high education jobs, there will be even more in lower-wage jobs. That’s – to some extent – just the nature of the economy.

Oregon Employment Projections Summary, 2012-2022Oregon Employment Department, Workforce and Economic Research

Occupational Group2012

Employment2022

EmploymentEmployment

ChangePercent Change

Growth Openings

Replacement Openings

Total Openings

Service 278,684 328,718 50,034 18.0% 50,151 85,767 135,918Professional and Related 275,206 316,636 41,430 15.1% 41,531 57,736 99,267Office and Administrative Support 262,782 294,706 31,924 12.1% 33,462 56,177 89,639Sales and Related 170,771 193,313 22,542 13.2% 22,626 49,718 72,344Management, Business, and Financial 157,916 183,279 25,363 16.1% 25,454 32,033 57,487Health Care 129,125 155,220 26,095 20.2% 26,095 25,671 51,766Transportation and Material Moving 119,382 133,875 14,493 12.1% 14,493 27,892 42,385Production 107,665 120,965 13,300 12.4% 13,531 22,120 35,651Construction and Extraction 58,708 74,062 15,354 26.2% 15,354 9,839 25,193Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 61,723 70,199 8,476 13.7% 8,511 14,506 23,017Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 39,501 46,701 7,200 18.2% 7,382 10,465 17,847Total All Occupations 1,683,320 1,941,712 258,392 15.4% 260,771 391,924 652,695

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5. There will be openings in almost all occupations, either due to growth or replacements or both.

Policy implication: We need to find the right “career development” balance – individuals follow their dreams, guided in part by reasonable and practical “real world information”.

The two categories adding the most jobs reflect a typical economy’s diversity.

Top two occupations with most openings in services: ∗ Combined Food

Prep and Serving Workers

∗ Waiters and Waitresses

Top two occupations with most openings in professional:∗ Teacher Assistants∗ Postsecondary

Teachers

0 50,000 100,000 150,000

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair

Construction and Extraction

Production

Transportation and Material Moving

Health Care

Management, Business, and Financial

Sales and Related

Office and Administrative Support

Professional and Related

Service

Growth Openings vs. Replacement Openings in Oregon, 2012-2022

Growth OpeningsReplacement Openings

17

Oregon Employment by Total Projected Job Openings, 2012-2022

Standard Occupational Classification Title2012

Employment2022

EmploymentGrowth

OpeningsReplacement

OpeningsTotal

OpeningsRetail Salespersons 55,158 62,553 7,395 18,866 26,261Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 35,481 42,017 6,536 13,548 20,084Waiters and Waitresses 27,757 32,690 4,933 13,354 18,287Cashiers 33,574 36,147 2,573 14,515 17,088Registered Nurses 30,677 35,636 4,959 5,948 10,907Office Clerks, General 32,305 35,912 3,607 6,787 10,394Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 22,297 25,506 3,209 6,907 10,116Customer Service Representatives 22,627 26,519 3,892 6,157 10,049Farmworkers and Laborers for Crops, Nurseries, and Greenhouses 20,287 24,013 3,726 6,155 9,881Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 24,204 28,669 4,465 4,554 9,019

Many occupations with the most openings are low-wage, low-skill, low-education.

“That they are what they are, do not blame me!”

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Even the fastest-growing occupations are not generally among the highest-wage, highest-education jobs.

“That they are what they are, do not blame me!”

Fastest Growing Occupations in Oregon with More than 500 Employed, 2012-2022

Standard Occupational Classification Title2012

Employment2022

EmploymentEmployment

Change Percent Change Total Openings

Roofers 1,963 2,738 775 39.5% 1,186

Physician Assistants 931 1,291 360 38.7% 527

Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists 2,390 3,294 904 37.8% 1,232

Painters, Construction and Maintenance 3,306 4,529 1,223 37.0% 1,724

Physical Therapist Aides 605 826 221 36.5% 355

Medical Equipment Repairers 592 807 215 36.3% 380

Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners 889 1,211 322 36.2% 444

Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers 1,130 1,539 409 36.2% 516

Pest Control Workers 892 1,214 322 36.1% 564

Personal Financial Advisors 869 1,172 303 34.9% 443

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6. Placeholder: Are the projected job openings low-, medium-, or high-wage?

We are still working on this part of the analysis. Last time, it looked like this:

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

Oregon Employment Openings2010-2020 Openings, 2011 Wages

HighWage (>$50,000)

Medium Wage ( $33,000 - $49,999)

Low Wage (<$33,000)

7a. Only one-third of the projected openings require more than a high school education for entry into the occupation.

Remember: many of the job openings are for sales and service occupations.

∗ A total of 653,000 openings are expected

∗ 216,00 have some post-secondary education as a level most workers need to enter an occupation

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Doctoral or professional degree

Master's degree

Associate's degree

Postsecondary training (non-degree)

Bachelor's degree

Less than high school

High school diploma or equivalent

Oregon Growth vs. Replacement by Typical Entry-Level Education 2012-2022


7b. Roughly 55% of the projected job openings require post-secondary education in order for the applicant to be “competitive”.

Policy implication: We need to decide whether we will strive to train Oregonians to the level most workers need to enter an occupation, the competitive education requirements, or the “what other people in the job have” education requirements.

In our view, the competitive education level means an employer would be excited to see the applicant.

∗ A total of 653,000 openings are expected

∗ 355,000 require some post-secondary education as a competitive requirement

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000


Master's degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Postsecondary training (non-degree)


Oregon Percent Growth vs. Percent Replacement in Typical Competitive-Level Education, 2012-2022


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Here’s another view of the projected openings by education level. This is an important topic.


3%Master's degree

7%

Bachelor's degree17%

Associate's degree9%

Postsecondary training (non-

degree)19%


45%

Occupational Openings by Typical Competitive-Level Education, Oregon 2012-2022

∗ Total openings include both growth AND replacement

8. The Portland and Bend areas are projected to grow the fastest.

Policy Implication: How do we help – is there a way to help –Oregon’s more remote rural areas experience better employment and economic growth?

Portland, Bend, and Eugene are projected to grow at or above the statewide pace. All other areas grow more slowly.

2012 2022 Change Change %Multnomah and Washington 695,300 809,800 114,500 16%Clackamas 138,630 160,830 22,200 16%Crook, Deschutes, and Jefferson 73,620 85,760 12,140 16%Lane 142,300 164,000 21,700 15%Marion, Polk, and Yamhill 183,200 208,700 25,500 14%Douglas 34,350 39,170 4,820 14%Gilliam, Hood River, Sherman, Wasco, and Wheeler 26,230 29,810 3,580 14%Jackson and Josephine 100,010 113,080 13,070 13%The Oregon Consortium - Oregon Workforce Alliance 292,240 328,500 36,260 12%Benton, Lincoln, and Linn 96,970 108,740 11,770 12%Clatsop, Columbia, and Tillamook 35,100 39,210 4,110 12%Klamath and Lake 24,030 26,740 2,710 11%Baker, Union, and Wallowa 18,080 19,800 1,720 10%Morrow and Umatilla 35,130 38,400 3,270 9%Grant, Harney, and Malheur 17,550 19,060 1,510 9%Coos and Curry 27,790 29,740 1,950 7%


Faster Job Growth Projected in Portland Area and Central Oregon, 2012-2022

Some very rural areas have super-slow growth.

Faster Job Growth Projected in Portland Area and Central Oregon, 2012-2022Statewide Growth = 15%

Projected Growth

More than 14%

Less than 10%

10% to 14%

9. We project that Oregon will grow faster than the United States as a whole.

Oregon and the U.S. have the same top three industries by projected growth rate.

Total: 15.3% vs 10.8%

Same Fast Growth:∗ Health care∗ Construction∗ Professional and

business services

Oregon and U.S. Projections Differ Most:∗ Manufacturing∗ Information

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Total

Construction



Educational services


Mining and logging


Other services

Transportation and warehousing

Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

State and local government

Retail trade

Information

Utilities

Federal government

Projected Industry Job Growth for the U.S. and Oregon, 2012-2022

National Projections

Oregon Projections

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Oregon Employment Department

10. These projections feed many other products, services, data series:

Career information, including CAREERS magazine

Occupational exploration tools on QualityInfo.org

Occupational Prioritization for Training at QualityInfo.org/olmisj/op4t

Community college training program approvals

http://www.qualityinfo.org/

http://www.qualityinfo.org/olmisj/op4t

Graham Slater, Research AdministratorOregon Employment Department

[email protected](503) 947-1212

To find this presentation online, go towww.QualityInfo.org

and use the search box to look up my name

Join the conversation:OregonEmployment.blogspot.com

Twitter @OrEmployment


http://www.qualityinfo.org/

Certified Work Ready Communities in Oregon Oregon joined more than thirty states utilizing the NCRC on January 25, 2011, with Governor Kitzhaber and the support of key business and workforce leaders. The Oregon program supports statewide and regional efforts to build a more skilled workforce. To date, thousands of Oregonians have earned a certificate and hundreds of businesses of all sizes, in a variety of industries, are supporting the certificate by preferring the NCRC in their hiring practices.

Oregon's CWRC effort focuses on county and regional certifications to strengthen and support "labor sheds" that reach beyond single county boundaries. (More at www.OregonWorkReady.com)

1 Data Sources: ACT website (www.WorkReadyCommunities.org); PRISM (OED), CCWD

http://www.workreadycommunities.org/

http://www.oregonworkready.com/

CWRC and NCRC

The CWRC program works in concert with the National Career Readiness Certificate (NCRC), and serves

as a validating tool that a community has a skilled labor force for targeted industries and to recruit and expand buisnesses.

Oregon’s NCRC helps job applicants stand out from the crowd, and assures employers that applicants

have the foundational skills needed to be successful on the job.



How do Oregonians measure up?

The NCRC verifies three foundational skills – Applied Mathematics, Reading for Information, and Locating Information. Four levels of certificates are issued:

• Platinum - scores at least a level 6 in each of the three core areas.

• Gold - scores at least a level 5 in each of the three core areas.

• Silver - scores at least a level 4 in each of the three core areas.

• Bronze - scores at least a level 3 in each of the three core areas.



Workforce Systems Innovation Strategies...Direct an interagency workgroup to develop a system-wide,...

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