Workforce Planning Study

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Workforce Planning Workforce Planning StudyStudy

Doug LeonardDoug LeonardSenior EconomistSenior Economist

Wyoming Department of Wyoming Department of EmploymentEmployment

Research & PlanningResearch & PlanningPO Box 2760PO Box 2760

Casper, WY 82602Casper, WY 82602(307) 473-3811(307) 473-3811

[email protected]@state.wy.us

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Who We Are & What We DoWho We Are & What We Do

We We compile, analyze and disseminatecompile, analyze and disseminate Wyoming employment and wage dataWyoming employment and wage data Analyze labor turnoverAnalyze labor turnover Produce employment & occupation forecastsProduce employment & occupation forecasts Evaluate programs and policiesEvaluate programs and policies Economic impact analysesEconomic impact analyses Custom surveys (e.g., community colleges, Custom surveys (e.g., community colleges,

employer provided benefits)employer provided benefits) We have access to statewide (including state We have access to statewide (including state

government) worker wage information from government) worker wage information from 1992- present1992- present

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Examples of state Examples of state government employee aging government employee aging

and turnover using wage dataand turnover using wage data

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State government workforce is State government workforce is agingaging

Age Trends in Wyoming State Government, Employees 55 or Older

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1993

Q1

1994

Q1

1995

Q1

1996

Q1

1997

Q1

1998

Q1

1999

Q1

2000

Q1

2001

Q1

2002

Q1

2003

Q1

2004

Q1

2005

Q1

Num

ber

of E

mplo

yee

s

55 or olderFive Year Projection

Number more than doubled in

nine years

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Labor flows: Labor flows: Workers 55 or olderWorkers 55 or older

Source of Hires and Destination of Exits for State Government Among Employees 55 or Older, Four Quarter Moving Average

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1993Q

1

1993Q

3

1994Q

1

1994Q

3

1995Q

1

1995Q

3

1996Q

1

1996Q

3

1997Q

1

1997Q

3

1998Q

1

1998Q

3

1999Q

1

1999Q

3

2000Q

1

2000Q

3

2001Q

1

2001Q

3

2002Q

1

2002Q

3

2003Q

1

2003Q

3

2004Q

1

2004Q

3

2005Q

1

Exit

s H

ires

Wyo State Gov. Source Wyo Other Gov. Source Wyo Private Source Wyo Resident Source

MOU States Source Unknown Source Wyo State Gov. Dest. Wyo Other Gov. Dest.

Wyo Private Dest. Wyo Resident Dest MOU States Dest. Unknown Dest.

Net Flow

Early Retirement Buyout

Hires: Where did they come from?

Exits: Where did they go?

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Labor flows:Labor flows:Workers <55 years oldWorkers <55 years old

Source of Hires and Destination of Exits for State Government Among Employees Less Than 55 Years Old, Four Quarter Moving Average

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

2000

Q4

2001

Q1

2001

Q2

2001

Q3

2001

Q4

2002

Q1

2002

Q2

2002

Q3

2002

Q4

2003

Q1

2003

Q2

2003

Q3

2003

Q4

2004

Q1

2004

Q2

2004

Q3

2004

Q4

2005

Q1

Exit

s H

ires

Wyo State Gov. Source Wyo Other Gov. Source Wyo Private Source Wyo Resident SourceMOU States Source Unknown Source Wyo State Gov. Dest. Wyo Other Gov. Dest.Wyo Private Dest. Wyo Resident Dest. MOU States Dest. Unknown Dest.Net Flow

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Why did we do this study Why did we do this study (why should you)?(why should you)?

Large portion of state employee labor pool Large portion of state employee labor pool nearing retirement – DOE older than most nearing retirement – DOE older than most agenciesagencies

Wage data are useful but…Wage data are useful but… Can we transfer organizational knowledge?Can we transfer organizational knowledge? Why do employees leave DOE (other than Why do employees leave DOE (other than

retirement)?retirement)? What are employee needs with regard to work?What are employee needs with regard to work? How do employees view the work environment?How do employees view the work environment? How likely are employees to leave?How likely are employees to leave?

Administrative data + questionnaireAdministrative data + questionnaire

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Data SourcesData SourcesDOE

employee master file

DOE Employee

Questionnaire

Statewide employer & worker wage files

Workforce Planning Study

Driver license file

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How we did it…How we did it…

Confidential control numbersConfidential control numbers Only one staff member had Only one staff member had

complete accesscomplete access Questionnaire testQuestionnaire test Multiple mailings during Multiple mailings during

September - October 2006September - October 2006 Follow-up telephone callsFollow-up telephone calls Eight weeks to complete Eight weeks to complete

preliminarypreliminary analysis – response analysis – response rate 80%+rate 80%+ A cautionary note on response A cautionary note on response

rates…rates…

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What we found…What we found…

32 persons exit from DOE each year – 5 32 persons exit from DOE each year – 5 obtain employment in another state obtain employment in another state agency (1992Q1 – 2006Q1)agency (1992Q1 – 2006Q1)

Agency goals mesh well with Agency goals mesh well with individuals’ goals (high commitment/low individuals’ goals (high commitment/low role conflict)role conflict)

One-third of workers willing to return to One-third of workers willing to return to DOE after retirement as a contractorDOE after retirement as a contractor

20% of workers willing to return after 20% of workers willing to return after retirement in another position or agencyretirement in another position or agency

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Management or career advancement Management or career advancement training most important to workers training most important to workers <44 years of age<44 years of age

Occupations of concern...Occupations of concern... Employees were the least satisfied Employees were the least satisfied

with compensationwith compensation 70% of DOE employees leaving in 12 70% of DOE employees leaving in 12

months are female and 58.9% have months are female and 58.9% have comparatively low wagescomparatively low wages

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Willingness to train Willingness to train other employeesother employees

““More respect from More respect from management”management”

“…“…speak our minds speak our minds without fear of without fear of reprisal.”reprisal.”

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Future OptionsFuture Options

Monitor variables over Monitor variables over time – satisfaction is time – satisfaction is time and mood time and mood dependentdependent

Better detail is achieved Better detail is achieved when the data are when the data are combined across combined across agenciesagencies

Combine questionnaire Combine questionnaire results with results with administrative data administrative data

Can focus more on Can focus more on controllablecontrollable factors factors

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How long does it take?How long does it take?

10 – 12 weeks10 – 12 weeks Completion time dependent Completion time dependent

upon:upon: Number of Number of

agencies/employees available agencies/employees available for analysisfor analysis

Address qualityAddress quality Availability of standardized Availability of standardized

information and MOU from information and MOU from other agenciesother agencies

We are only as fast as the We are only as fast as the slowestslowest agency agency

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Coming up next…Coming up next…

Workforce Planning Study

Documents

Transcript of Workforce Planning Study