WMO

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

and its Future Directions

A. SoaresScientific Officer

WMO Data-processing and Forecasting Systems (DPFS)asoares@wmo.int

WMO

Numerical simulations of the atmosphere

“In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.”

- Eugenia Kalnay (2003)

- From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5th printing 2009

Why a project on severe weather forecasting?

Mandate of NMHSs:

To provide meteorological information for

protection of life, livehoods and property, and

conservation of the environment

Why a project on severe weather forecasting?

Many NMHSs lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional

capacities to provide provide high-quality

meteorological services

Essential

Full

Advanced

Less than Basic

Basic

0

10

20

30

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50

60

70

Infrastrucal Capacity Category

# of

Cou

ntrie

s/Te

rrito

ries

Infrastructural Capacities of Countries

as of Aug 2010 to provide Basic, Essential,

Full and Advanced Meteorological Services

Dramatic developments in weather and climate prediction science

Leading to improved alerting of hydro-meteorological hazards, at ever-increased precision, reliability, and lead-times of warnings

Developing countries, including LDCs and SIDSs, saw little progress

Increasing gap in application of advanced technology in early warnings

WMO SWFDP attempts to close this gap, by applying the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ (regional frameworks)

5

Why a project on severe weather forecasting?

Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries

“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.”

(World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011)

Implemented through the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) that applies the

‘Cascading Forecasting Process’

‘Cascading Forecasting Process’

NOAA/NCEP, USAExeter, UK

ECMWF

Global Centres

RSMC Pretoria

Regional Centre

National Centres

Users (DMCPA, sectors)

Main goals Further implement the GDPFS through a three-level

system – the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ Improve collaborative work and international cooperation

among operational centres at global, regional and national levels

Improve the skill of products from WMO operational centres through feedback

Continuous learning and modernization Address the needs of groups of “like-countries”

Improve lead-time of Warnings

Improve interaction of NMHSs with users

Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems

Main goals / contributions to WMO high priorities Further implement the GDPFS

through a three-level system – the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’

Improve collaborative work and international cooperation among operational centres at global, regional and national levels

Improve the skill of products from WMO Operational centres through feedback

Continuous learning and modernization

Address the needs of groups of “like-countries”

Improve lead-time of Warnings

Improve interaction of NMHSs with users

Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems

Capacity development

Disaster risk reduction

Climate change adaptation (GFCS)

Socio-econ. Sectors (AeM, AgM, etc)

Basic systems(WIGOS, WIS)

Regional project management and implementation

I. Planning, partnerships and accountability

Establishment of regional partnership (framework / team);

Focus on forecasting and warning services of 2 or 3 top hazards for the region

Preparation of regional project-specific IP Development of specific Website by RSMC Preparation of products by global and

regional centres

II. Implementation and execution typically 12-18 months Tracking, continuously evaluation, feedback and verification, training and reporting

III. Evaluation and broaden the prototype (return to I. and II.) More countries More hazards Synergies with other programmes

IV. Long-term sustainability and future development Responsibility for management lies with the region (e.g. MASA, EAC, PMC, etc.)

Regional projects

12

RSMC Pretoria Webportal

Since 2006

SWFDP – Southern Africa

16 countries RSMC Pretoria RSMC-TC La Réunion ECMWF, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO

RSMC analysis forecast information Guidance every day for the next 5 days Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas

and swell, severe winter weather Guidance info made available through

dedicated Webpage to NMCs Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting

SWFDP Guidance Products from SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC PretoriaRSMC Pretoria

SWFDP – Southwest Pacific

9 SIDSs RSMC Wellington RSMC-TC Nadi ABoM, ECMWF, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO

RSMC Wellington WebportalSince 2009

SWFDP – Eastern Africa

6 countries RSMC Nairobi RFSC Dar (Lake Victoria) DWD, ECMWF, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO

RSMC Nairobi WebportalSince 2011

16

RFSC Ha Noi Webportal

Since 2011

SWFDP – Southeast Asia 5 countries RFSC Na Hoi RSMC-TC Tokyo RSMC-TC New Delhi HKO (training) CMA, JMA, KMA

17

RSMC-TC New Delhi

Webportalis being expanded

SWFDP – Bay of Bengal (South Asia)

6 countries RSMC New Delhi ECMWF, IMD/NCMRWF, JMA, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO

A cross-cutting activity involving multiple TCs and Progs, concerning prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards

Reg

ion

al C

entr

e (R

SM

Cs

, R

FS

C,

RC

Cs

)

Glo

bal

Cen

tres

RS

MC

s-T

C

Global NWP/EPS andSat-based products

TCP

LAM & Guidance Products (risk/probability)

GDPFS

Nat

ion

al M

et C

entr

es(F

ore

ca

st/

Wa

rnin

g B

ull

eti

ns

)

PWS

Ge

ne

ral

Pu

bli

c,

me

dia

, d

isa

ste

r m

an

ag

em

en

t a

uth

ori

tie

s

Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR)

Feedback and Verification

PWS, HWR, WCP

Ge

ne

ral

Pu

bli

c,

me

dia

, d

isa

ste

r m

an

ag

em

en

t a

uth

ori

tie

s

Sp

ec

ific

Us

er

Se

cto

rs (

Ag

ric

ult

ure

, M

ari

ne

, A

via

tio

n,

etc

.)AgM, MMO, AeM, etc.

Satellite Imagery

and Tools

SP

Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized

ApplicationsAgM, MMO,

AeM, WCP, etc.

WW

RP

Research Projects

Flash Flood Guidance

HWR

Observing and

information systems

WIG

OS

, WIS

Reg

ion

al C

entr

e (R

SM

Cs

, R

FS

C,

RC

Cs

)

Cooperation with research… incorporating promising research outputs into real-

time operations …

GIFS - TIGGE - Tropical Cyclone track; extreme events (wind, precip, temps; soon to be near-real-time)

Forecast Verification Research

Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting

Sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting

Societal and economic research applications (SERA)

GIFS products

Project framework and guidance

REFERENCE DOCUMENTS:

• SWFDP Overall Project Plan (rev. 2010)http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-SeA-SWFDP-RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_OverallPP_Updated_22-04-2010.pdf

• SWFDP Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects (rev. 2010)

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-SeA-SWFDP-RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_Guidebook_Updated_22-04-2010.pdf

Resources for implementation and sustainability

Regular budget

In-kind contributions by WMO Members (especially global and regional centres)

Extra-budgetary funds from WMO Members, and donor agencies (e.g. AUSAid, World Bank, UNESCAP, Government of Norway, NZAid, etc.)

Staff: DPFS (responsible for the overall project), with the collaboration of PWS

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1000

1 2 3 4 5

Year

Fu

nd

s (k

US

D)

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1 2 3 4 5

Management andCoordination

Project Implementation

Lessons learnt, so far

Successful recipe – effective framework, real benefits to developing and least developed countries

High impact, cost effective

Visible operational results – increased visibility, credibility and value of meteorological services

Regional frameworks: collective needs, motivation, buy-on, ownership, continuous learning environment for a group of like-countries

Lessons learnt, so far (cont.)

Accelerated technology transfer from advanced global centres to less capable national centres through the “Cascading Forecasting Process”

Model/framework can be applied to any time-scales and a range of applications/user sectors

Engagement with met-groups with regional economic bodies is critical for sustainability

Lessons learnt, so far (cont.) Reliable and largely automated support by global

centres, with infrequent problems that require technical repair and support

Critical role and functions of the regional centres in downscaling and tailoring products, and providing forecast guidance for practical use by NMHSs, and as a central hub for all data information exchange

Limited infrastructure requirements as products are provided in graphical form via Internet (or EumetCast/GeoMetCast)

Lessons learnt, so far (cont.)

Major challenge has been the need for VSRF tools, in absence of weather radar coverage – it has been addressed in collaboration with SAT (e.g. SAF-NWC package – MSG - being installed at RSMC)

Verification and feedback is crucial for fine-tune the products and improve the process

Training (face-to-face, hands-on, global guidance, e-learning, etc.) is a critical for mentoring and empower forecasters

Training activities 2-week face-to-face training

NCEP African Desk (curriculum is now being revised to align with the SWFDP in Southern and Eastern Africa requirements, including WW3 and WRF)

ECMWF annual training for WMO Members

DWD annual training on COSMO (aligned with SWFDP)

Regional Training Centres (training programmes on forecasting aligned with the SWFDP)

TC trainings include SWFDP-related aspects

Webinars

Global guidance huddle

Future directions

More countries, new regions (over 100 countries: developing and LDCs) ~ 12 RSMCs supported by ~6 RSMC-TC and ~13 global centres

Hydro-meteorological hazards

Sector-specific hazards (e.g. agriculture, marine, hydrology, aviation, etc.)

Beyond day-5

Ultimate goal… Effective and efficient global forecasting system

Consolidate the SWFDP into sustainable operational services in all WMO Regions and transition the SWFDP to

become a fully supported global programme

But a global system requires… Sustaining and strengthening existing operational

centres, especially RSMCs

Expanding the role of RSMCs with activity specialization in Tropical Cyclones

Establishing/creating new RSMCs

In-kind contributions are expected to continue on the availability of products (mainly automated systems)

However, with additional regions, more NMHSs, there will be a need for additional resources to support technical and

“engineering” enhancements, and training

Each regional project requires…

An RSMC expert to act as a regional project manager

Regular meetings of the regional frameworks / boards

Development, upgrades and maintenance of the Web site and Portal

Training (face-to-face training events, global guidance service, RSMC training desks, on-job training, e-learning, etc.)

Implementation/installation of proven tools

Verification activities

Implementation/installation of a “meteoalarm”-type system

Sustaining and strengthening existing operational centres, especially RSMCs

Sustaining/Strengthening Existing RSMC

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500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1st year 2nd year 3rd year TOTAL

Year

kUS

D

Implementation/installation of a“Meteoalarm” system

Verif ication activities

Implementation/installation proventools

Training (various activities)

Web site and Portal

Meeting of the Reg. Board

RSMC expert (consultant)

Expanding the role of RSMCs with activity specialization in Tropical Cyclones

Expanding RSMC-TC

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year TOTAL

Year

kU

SD

Implementation/installation of a“Meteoalarm” system

Verif ication activities

Implementation/installation proventools

Training (various activities)

Web site and Portal

Meeting of the Reg. Board

RSMC expert (consultant)

Establishing/creating new RSMCs/RFSCs

Creating a New RSMC

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 5th year TOTAL

Year

kU

SD

Implementation/installation of a“Meteoalarm” system

Verif ication activities

Implementation/installation proventools

Training (various activities)

Web site and Portal

Meeting of the Reg. Board

RSMC expert (consultant)

In addition…

Increased human resources required at the Secretariat to perform critical functions (coordinate, lead and help further develop, expand and mainstream the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ into all WMO Regions and other programmes of WMO), which also need to be funded (~300kUSD/year)

Regular meetings of the Steering Group (every other year) for overall guidance (~80kUSD/each)

Tell us how to fish - Show us how to fish - Fish with us

“ … next decade will continue to bring improvements, especially in …

detailed short-range forecasts, using storm-scale models able to provide skillful predictions of severe weather;

…

“… improvement in the usefulness of medium-range forecasts, especially through use of ensemble

forecasting;”

- Eugenia Kalnay (2009)

Strengthening and sustaining the Cascading Forecasting Process… … paving the way for the future

Improving severe weather forecasting and warning services

Thank you!

DPFS: Peter Chen

Alice Soares

“Spending on improving weather forecasting and sharing data have high returns.” Natural Hazards UnNatural Disasters –The Economics of Effective Preveniton,WB, UN (2011)

www.wmo.int

Thank you for your attentionA. Soares

Scientific Officer

WMO Data-processing and Forecasting Systems (DPFS)

asoares@wmo.int