…with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),
description
Transcript of …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),
![Page 1: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Towards real-time Space Weather forecasts using CMIT: Geomagnetic variations and regional K indexes
George Millward
…with help from:
Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),
Mike Wiltberger, Wenbin Wang, Pete Schmitt, Art Richmond, Astrid Maute (HAO)
….and:
Terry Onsager, Howard Singer, Chris Balch (SWPC)
![Page 2: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
LFM
TIE-GCM
Magnetosphere -Ionosphere Coupler
Electric PotentialParticle Precipitation
ConductivitiesWinds
•CMIT: First principles, physics-based, 3D, time-dependent model. Consists of a coupling between the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry MHD Magnetospheric model(LFM) and the NCAR Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM)
•Present: Medium resolution mode. Running on “Bluesky”: NCAR IBM Cluster 1600 - 8 proc (OpenMP)
•Future: High resolution fast-mode (MPI). Next generation multi-processor computing resources
Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1
CISM Knowledge Transfer:
Transitioning CMIT
for Real-Time Forecasting
Space-Weather Forecast (SWPC)
Current Geospace Conditions
Coupled Magnetosphere Ionosphere Thermosphere model (CMIT 2.0)
•Initial: Real-time solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft. Lead time: about 1 hour
•Future: Solar wind model driven by solar observations Lead-time: 3 to 5 days
Real-time Inputs
Solar Wind Model
Output Products, User Benefits
•Initial: 1 hour forecast of geomagnetic activity, global ionospheric electron content, magnetopause location
•Users: Power utilities, Satellite operators, communication, precision GPS
•Future: 3 day forecast using solar model and observations.
Sun
Earth
![Page 3: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
CMIT 2.5 development on NOAA wJET computer
•wJET: LINUX Cluster (1400 cores)
•Utilizes Intel compilers
•Supports parallel processing via MPI (Not OpenMP)
•LFM and LFM-MIX running in parallel on wJET
•Tiegcm v 1.9 running on wJET
CMIT 2.5 (LFM MPI - TIEGCM1.9) on wJET 98% built
![Page 4: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
LFM
TIE-GCM
Magnetosphere -Ionosphere Coupler
Electric PotentialParticle Precipitation
ConductivitiesWinds
Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1
Space-Weather Forecast (SWPC)
Current Geospace Conditions
![Page 5: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
LFM
TIE-GCM
Magnetosphere -Ionosphere Coupler
Electric PotentialParticle Precipitation
ConductivitiesWinds
Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1
Space-Weather Forecast (SWPC)
Current Geospace Conditions
“in house” (NOAA SWPC)
![Page 6: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Real-time Solar Wind Data at L1
![Page 7: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
LFM
TIE-GCM
Magnetosphere -Ionosphere Coupler
Electric PotentialParticle Precipitation
ConductivitiesWinds
![Page 8: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Outputs/Products
Current Geospace Conditions
![Page 9: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
April 2006 Magnetic Storm
2nd 20thApril 20065 9 14
![Page 12: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
April 2006: Magnetometer data
![Page 13: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
April 2006: CMIT model output
![Page 14: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
JN
JE
JHorizontal
![Page 15: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: …with help from: Michael Gehmeyr (LASP),](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081503/56814e95550346895dbc4111/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Summary / Comments:
Exciting initial results: CMIT clearly responding well during storm conditions:
Some problems.
Future:
Running CMIT 2.5 on NOAA wJET (soon !!)
Further runs needed for calibration/tuning
Inclusion of magnetospheric currents (LFM/RCM)