Witches of IR

Realism vs. Liberalism

Basic Human Nature

Selfish Variable

Role of States

Still very important

Significant but declining

Cause of State Behavior

Nationalinterest

Humanmotivations

Nature of International System

Anarchy Community

“Normal” Interstate Behavior

Conflict Cooperation

The World “Game”

Zero-sum Non zero-sum

Role of Morality

Irrelevant Important

Basic Outlook

Pessimistic Optimistic

“Flavors” of Realism(according to Doyle)

HumanNature

DomesticSociety

InterstateSystem

Fundamentalist(Machiavelli) X X X

Structuralist(Hobbes)

X X XConstitutionalist(Rousseau)

X X X

Complex(Thucydides) X X X

Fundamentalist – war stems from basic human nature.

Structuralist – war occurs because of international anarchy.

Constitutionalist – war arises from nature of human society.

WHYWAR?

Balance of Power System

A

E

D

F

B

C

a

b

d

f g

e

c

A

E

D

F

B

C

a

b

d

f g

e

c

A

E

D

F

B

C

a

b

d

f g

e

c

A

E

D

F

B

C

a

b

d

f g

e

c

A

E

D

F

B

C

a

b

d

f g

e

c

A

E

D

F

B

C

a

b

d

f g

e

c

A

E

D

F

B

C

a

b

d

f g

e

c

A

E

D

F

B

C

a

b

d

f g

e

c

Elements of Power

Power = ability of a state to influence the behavior of other states (and resist their attempts to influence it)

What factors enhance a state’s ability to do this?

COW “Power” Index(COW = Correlates of War research project)

CINC = Composite Index of National (material) Capabilities

1816-2000(?)

Basic Indicators

• Military Personnel

• Military Expenditure

• Iron & Steel Production

• Energy Consumption

• Urban Population

• Total Population

MilitaryPersonnel

Iron & SteelProduction

MilitaryExpenditure

EnergyConsumption

UrbanPopulation

TotalPopulation

CINC

DemographicCapability

IndustrialCapability

MilitaryCapability

1825 1850 1875 1900

RUS (40.0)

RUS (30.0)

CHN (23.8)

RUS (19.7)

AUH (12.7)

FRN (15.1)

RUS (19.9)

CHN (17.2)

FRN (11.0)

AUH (15.0)

FRN (11.5)

GMY (10.8)

TUR (8.8)

UKG (6.9)

GMY (10.2)

FRN (10.7)

UKG (6.1)

TUR (5.0)

AUH (7.2)

UKG (8.4)

1925 1950 1975 1992

CHN (28.1)

RUS (24.7)

CHN (18.9)

CHN (12.1)

RUS (9.3)

CHN (23.0)

RUS (15.1)

RUS (10.9)

FRN (7.8)

USA (8.0)

USA (9.0)

USA (7.7)

UKG (5.6)

UKG (4.0)

IND (4.0)

IND (5.1)

JPN (5.0)

TUR (3.9)

VTM (2.9)

PRK (4.5)

Mil. Personnel – Top 5

Mil. Expenditure – Top 51825 1850 1875 1900

FRN (25.5)

RUS (23.4)

RUS (17.6)

UKG (31.6)

UKG (25.4)

FRN (21.2)

FRN (16.6)

RUS (11.4)

RUS (17.9)

UKG (14.6)

UKG (13.7)

USA (11.0)

AUH (12.2)

AUH (14.1)

GMY (11.9)

FRN (10.7)

GMY (7.4)

USA (5.4)

USA (7.6)

GMY (10.5)

1925 1950 1975 1992

RUS (31.8)

RUS (34.8)

RUS (33.3)

USA (37.7)

USA (12.9)

USA (32.6)

USA (23.7)

RUS (6.2)

UKG (12.7)

CHN (5.7)

CHN (7.4)

UKG (5.6)

FRN (7.1)

UKG (5.3)

GFR (4.0)

JPN (5.1)

JPN (4.0)

FRN (3.3)

FRN (3.4)

FRN (4.6)

Iron & Steel – Top 51825 1850 1875 1900

UKG (42.4)

UKG (53.1)

UKG (46.5)

USA (37.1)

FRN (14.4)

USA (13.3)

USA (14.8)

GMY (23.1)

RUS (12.2)

FRN (9.3)

GMY (12.7)

UKG (17.8)

USA (8.6)

RUS (5.6)

FRN (10.4)

RUS (7.9)

AUH (6.5)

AUH (5.1)

BEL (3.9)

FRN (5.6)

1925 1950 1975 1992

USA (52.1)

USA (52.1)

RUS (22.2)

JPN (15.5)

GMY (13.8)

RUS (16.2)

USA (16.6)

USA (13.3)

UKG (8.5)

UKG (9.8)

JPN (16.0)

CHN (13.3)

FRN (8.4)

FRN (5.1)

GFR (6.3)

RUS (10.6)

BEL (2.9)

BEL (2.2)

CHN (3.7)

GMY (5.8)