Wireless Systems (ppt, 32 slides, 518 Kb)

Wireless systems roadmap www.isa.se 1

Wireless Systems Roadmap 2005-2010June 2005Bo Karlson, Östen Mäkitalo, Mats Nilsson, Jens Zander


Contents

About the Study

The Wireless Environment

Background Trends Societal development Users and usage Wireless services Regulative

Trends in a 3-5 year Perspective Technology Industry Open questions

Potential Showstoppers

The Wireless World in 2015 and Beyond

Competitive Advantage of the Swedish Wireless Industry

Conclusions


About the study

This study has been carried out by Wireless@KTH under commission from Invest in Sweden Agency (ISA) during April and May 2005

The focus is on “Wireless Systems”, including: Cellular systems WiMax and WLAN systems Ad hoc Wireless Networks Multi-network convergence terminals

Time horizon: 2005 - 2010

Parallel ISA-studies focus on roadmaps for mobile terminals and photonic systems


The Wireless Environment

Services:Communication, My Car, Voice chat,Remote surgery, See What I See…

Networks

MSC

PSTN

IP

Research and Development areas:

Transparent, Multi Mode, Low Cost Infrastructure, Antennas…

USER

Wireless Technology

Demands: Quality, Coverage, Security, Cost…


Radio Skog Mobil

YEAR

1985 1995 2005

3G - UMTS

Mobitex

NMT450

NMT900

GSM

3G - CDMA2000

MTD

W-LAN

”Wireless DSL”

TREND: Higher frequencies, higher bitrates and less coverage

Iridium

Wireless System Generations


User bit rates in practice

User data bit rate Bandwidth for a service

Mobitex 1 kbit/sIridium 2.4 kbits/sNMT450 10 kbit/sGSM CSD 10 kbit/sGSM GPRS 40 kbit/sGSM EDGE 100 kbit/s3G Mobile 200 kbits/s3G Semi mobile 2 000 kbit/sRadio LAN 50 000 kbits/s


Bit rates VS Coverage

Bit rate

Coverage/mobility

10K

100K

1M

10M

100M

Indoor Local Wide area Global

GSM

UMTS

Satellite

WLAN

BT

Equicost/EquipowerlineBroadcast

systemsHSDPA

?More received power

Super 3G

”4G”Radios

New radio technologies are no direct replacement for 2/3G systems Bit rate not limited by technology – but by deployment density


Background trends – Societal development

Society will gradually move towards a more mobile environment for its citizens and workers

Environmental issues increase in importance

Globalization continues

Increased economic importance of large NIC-economies (China, India, and also Russia)

Continued shift towards “knowledge based economy”

Aging population in the western world


Background trends – Users and usage

Increased user mobility

Bandwidth (bit rate) demands from users will increase

Differentiation of users into distinct groups with different demands will increase

Basic service quality parameters will increase in importance Service reliability (low rate of interruptions, errors etc.) Coverage Ease of use High enough data bit rate to and from the user Security, integrity, privacy

But in a novel way Different quality of service demands from different users Quality of service traded against low price Caching and storing of content change usage patterns


Background trends – Wireless Services (1)

The demand for wireless services will increase, but not explode!

Continued prize drop on services due to Excess wireless capacity in the early part of the studied period Competition between operators and technologies User owned and operated networks complementing operator networks

to reduce cost

Increased focus on easy to use services Usage of new Man-Machine-Interfaces, e.g. voice control Content need to be developed for small screens,

at least during the first part of the studied period



Communication services will continue to dominate, at least during the first part of the studied period Voice Messaging (SMS, MMS, email etc.) High quality images ”See what I see”

New affordable everyday services for the mass market (applications and content) Wireless Wallet Finding information Scheduling and booking etc.



Increase usage of entertainment and media services

Fast increase in terminal memory will lead to new services based on caching content Extensive downloading now – Usage later

Growth of Machine-to-Machine (M2M) based services

Tailored and specialized applications for large customers and specific consumer segments will increase in importance


Background trends – Regulative

Increased flexibility and response from authorities (licensing etc.) Increased technology independence and neutrality

f [MHz]

No

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Rad

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FW

A/M

ob

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FW

A

3G+

Rad

io L

AN

UM

TS

FD

D/T

DD

GS

M1800

Iridiu

m

GS

M900

CD

MA

2000N

MT

450

Mo

bitex

Rad

io S

kog

Mo

bil

100 1000 2000 3500 5500

More bandwidth for mobile services


Trends in a 3-5 year Perspective

Speed of change will not be drastic over the period It takes several years to launch new wireless services to a

mass market Infrastructures change slowly

3G and the new wireless data networks in Sweden will maintain world class in terms of wide area coverage and quality of service (UMTS, EDGE, CDMA2000/450)

There will be fierce competition between 3G evolution and other networks (e.g. IEEE802.xx), especially during 2007–2010

Different starting points and development paths in different parts of the world


Trends – Technology (1)

Increasingly complex and heterogeneous network environment

Many different types of networks, from simple to complex, operated by different types of operators

Many different access technologies - but several of those developed today will not survive

More “niche” wireless standards – no single “4G” radio standard

Gradual shift towards multi-standard “Ambient Networks”


A multi-standards wireless future

Iridum CDMA2000/450 GSM/GPRS/EDGE UMTS FDD/TDD HSDPASuper 3G Zigbee Bluetooth WLAN WIMAXI-burst Flash OFDM Wibro Ripwave IEEE 802.xxUWB….

Wide-area (cellular)Hot spotsHot regionsSatellites…


Voodoofone®

UMTS

BS&S®

Hotspot service

Sams

Home WLAN

Alice’s PAN

Sams PAN

T-stabil®

GSM

Wide Area Ambient Networks


Trends - Technology (2)

Network standards and technology Fixed-Mobile-Wideband data convergence

e.g. the UMA standard, triple play New networks will be introduced

Alternative low cost infrastructures Providing wide-area coverage (e.g. digital 450 MHz and others) Providing local access (e.g. IEE802.XX)

Wireless DSL increases in importance as a complement to existing copper lines and as 3G complement

The ”All IP” vision develops further User bit rates improves gradually, in a staircase

without drastic steps Increased up link demands from users will lead to more symmetrical

bandwidth capability


Trends – Technology (3)

Terminals More multimode terminals (in particular WLAN/Cellular) Megapixel cameras as well as high-resolution video cameras Large storage facilities in terminals (+Gigabytes) Improved screens and eventually “virtual screens”

Specific technology developments Network components and subsystems

Antenna technology in the form of multiple ports (MIMO), smart units, etc.

Man-Machine-Interfaces (MMI) e.g. Speech recognition and synthesis

Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA) Solutions for Digital Rights Management (DRM)


Trends – Industry (1)

Wireless will continue to be an important industrial sector for Sweden The wireless clusters, e.g. Kista/Stockholm, will grow further More foreign companies establish in these clusters

Two distinct markets evolve with different technologies and paradigms Wide-area (traditional cellular) Local access


The Battleground

The Battleground

Wide area wireless Local access wireless

Seamless mobility High speeds Any-time anywhere Moderate data rates

”Cordless” access Stationary use High data rates



The Wide-area wireless industry Increased consolidation in the operator segment Continue to be heavily affected by political decisions

Licensing Regulation regarding e.g. competition Both national and EU regulation

Ericsson continues to be a very important engine

The Local access wireless industry Hotspot and “Hot Region” (non-cellular) technologies will take

significant part of revenue for personal communication in local business, home applications and as “wireless XDSL” (wide band in non-urban areas)

Unclear which and what type of actors in Sweden will address emerging local access needs



Thus, unclear how successful 3G will be Regulatory and spectrum issues Strong competition from other technologies in indoor/local access

Continued globalization leads to increased competition Outsourcing of both manufacturing and R&D to Asia and Eastern

Europe continues China, India, and later Russia will dominate as the most important

markets China, India, and Russia will become increasingly important as

industrial players as well South Korea and Japan will be strong markets for new wireless

services and applications

Defense and consumer technology merge


Trends - Open questions

Multi-hop coverage extension: Using terminals as transfer nodes Single hop functionality already on the market and will spread further True multi-hop systems (using more than one terminal to transfer information)

will change the mobile communications market, but most likely not within 3-5 years

The role of satellite services Usage of space communications will probably expand but only slowly

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) Most of these technologies offer mobile or semi mobile services although often

used as fixed The regulative trend is to allow mobility, not to limit access to fixed applications

Man Machine Interfaces (MMI) for terminals Advanced input units Screen development:

Very thin, flexible, low cost screens will change industry When will this type of equipment be available?


Potential Showstoppers

Collapse in managing of increasingly complex networks as well as service and usage environment

Power consumption in terminal leads to short usage time (battery capacity increases slower than power consumption)

Biological effects of radiation Real effects Perceived effects by the public

Chaos around Digital Rights Management (DRM)

Difficulties guaranteeing security/integrity/privacy in networks and services


The Wireless world in 2015 and beyond (1)

Highly heterogeneous wireless environment with a multitude of technologies

Abundance of easily accessible, affordable, and reliable services and terminals for all uses

Context and location aware information and entertainment services dominate

Fierce competition and many business actors offering services and local access

Local access infrastructure deployed and maintained by janitors, electricians, and consumers


The Wireless world in 2015 and beyond (2)

Global wide area coverage (with location variant quality of service)

More spectrum for mobile/nomadic communications In lower bands for coverage (470-600 MHz) In higher bands for high bit rates and full mobility services (2.7-6.0 GHz) In even higher bands for bit rates over 100 Mbs for nomadic services (6-

70 GHz) Exact allocations visible by 2010

Wireless gradually becomes a ”disappearing technology”


An example:The light bulb

The Wireless Vision: A Disappearing Technology

Penetration

Time

Exclusive

”Everyone” has it

Vanishing technology

In almost every home

Why isn’t there an outlet here?

In a few homes

1900 1950 2000


Competitive Advantage of the Swedish Wireless Industry (1)

The Swedish Wireless industry is growing again after the recession 2000–2003

World-class 3G and other wireless data networks in terms of wide area coverage and quality of service Mix of 3G, Hotspots, Wireless ADSL etc. supported by excellent fiber

and wire-line infrastructures Can be used for test bed and early market activities

Low cost for wireless access in the future, due to Excess capacity in the cellular networks in the first part of the period Increased competition between operators and technologies Excellent opportunities for service development and provisioning



Nationwide availability of excellent engineering competence

Highly competent wireless clusters Strong links between industrial activities and academic research

Areas of particular strength, both in industry and academia Network architectures for a highly complex and heterogeneous future Radio technology Antenna subsystems Audio recognition and synthesis



Home market for the leading infrastructure manufacturer for wide area wireless networks

An increase of new entrepreneurial companies in the wireless industry

An excellent ability to develop complex systems and components


Conclusions

It is quite clear how wireless will develop during the next 3-5 years: Evolution not Revolution!

The Wireless industry and the business environment in Sweden are well equipped and will play a major role in the global development for years to come Strong clusters High technological competence Both world-leading manufacturers and small entrepreneurial

companies

Wireless Systems (ppt, 32 slides, 518 Kb)

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