Winter 2018/2019 LVP Forecast Verification · Heathrow LVP verification © Crown Copyright 2019,...

Winter 2018/2019 LVP Forecast Verification

Gatwick, Luton, Stansted, Bristol, Manchester, Heathrow

Emma CorriganNATS Met Office Operations Manager

www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2019, Met Office

• Issued twice daily

• 0400 UTC

• 1600 L

• Consistent with TAFs,

warnings forecast valid at

time of issue

• Amendable for LTMA airfields

• Analysis of the period 0400-

1800 UTC


Met Office NATS LVP Matrix

Gatwick D-1 LVP Verification


0-5%

5-29%

30-39%

40-59%

60-89%

>90%

*1600L Issue of LVP matrix day before

N 146 3 2.1%

L 57 4 7.0%

ML 24 10 41.7%

MH 12 8 66.7%

H 3 3 100.0%

VH 0 0 n/a

D-1 LVP

Risk

No. of

occasions

forecast

LVP

conditions

met

Frequency

of LVP

occurrence

LVP threshold:

Visibility <600 m

Cloud ceiling <200 ft


Gatwick D0 LVP Verification

* 0400L Issue of LVP matrix that day

N 147 0 0.0%

L 51 2 3.9%

ML 18 4 22.2%

MH 9 6 66.7%

H 12 11 91.7%

VH 5 5 100.0%

D0 LVP

Risk

No. of

occasions

forecast

LVP

conditions

met

Frequency

of LVP

occurrence

0-5%

5-29%

30-39%

40-59%

60-89%

>90%

LVP threshold:

Visibility <600 m


Stansted D-1 LVP Verification


0-5%

5-29%

30-39%

40-59%

60-89%

>90%


N 138 3 2.2%

L 50 8 16.0%

ML 20 6 30.0%

MH 23 18 78.3%

H 11 7 63.6%

VH 0 0 n/a

No. of

occasions

forecast

LVP

conditions

met

Frequency

of LVP

occurrence

D-1 LVP

Risk

LVP threshold:

Visibility <600 m


Stansted D0 LVP Verification

0-5%

5-29%

30-39%

40-59%

60-89%

>90%


N 136 0 0.0%

L 46 4 8.7%

ML 21 7 33.3%

MH 19 12 63.2%

H 15 14 93.3%

VH 5 5 100.0%

D0 LVP

Risk

No. of

occasions

forecast

LVP

conditions

met

Frequency

of LVP

occurrence

LVP threshold:

Visibility <600 m

Luton D-1 LVP Verification


0-5%

5-29%

30-39%

40-59%

60-89%

>90%


N 143 4 2.8%

L 39 6 15.4%

ML 26 8 30.8%

MH 14 6 42.9%

H 20 15 75.0%

VH 0 0 n/a

D-1 LVP

Risk

No. of

occasions

forecast

LVP

conditions

met

Frequency

of LVP

occurrence

LVP threshold:

Visibility <800 m



Luton D0 LVP Verification

0-5%

5-29%

30-39%

40-59%

60-89%

>90%


N 149 1 0.7%

L 31 1 3.2%

ML 21 8 38.1%

MH 13 7 53.8%

H 20 14 70.0%

VH 8 8 100.0%

D0 LVP

Risk

No. of

occasions

forecast

LVP

conditions

met

Frequency

of LVP

occurrence

LVP threshold:

Visibility <800 m


Manchester D-1 LVP Verification


0-5%

5-29%

30-39%

40-59%

60-89%

>90%


LVP threshold:

Visibility <600 m


N 196 6 3.1%

L 25 3 12.0%

ML 17 6 35.3%

MH 4 3 75.0%

H 0 0 n/a

VH 0 0 n/a

D-1 LVP

Risk

No. of

occasions

forecast

LVP

conditions

met

Frequency

of LVP

occurrence


Manchester D0 LVP Verification

0-5%

5-29%

30-39%

40-59%

60-89%

>90%


LVP threshold:

Visibility <600 m


N 194 1 0.5%

L 27 3 11.1%

ML 10 4 40.0%

MH 6 6 100.0%

H 5 4 80.0%

VH 0 0 n/a

D0 LVP

Risk

No. of

occasions

forecast

LVP

conditions

met

Frequency

of LVP

occurrence

Bristol D-1 LVP Verification


0-5%

5-29%

30-39%

40-59%

60-89%

>90%


LVP threshold:

Visibility ≤1500 m

Cloud ceiling ≤200 ft

N 136 7 5.1%

L 31 7 22.6%

ML 31 12 38.7%

MH 24 10 41.7%

H 20 17 85.0%

VH 0 0 n/a

D-1 LVP

Risk

No. of

occasions

forecast

LVP

conditions

met

Frequency

of LVP

occurrence


Bristol D0 LVP Verification

0-5%

5-29%

30-39%

40-59%

60-89%

>90%


LVP threshold:

Visibility ≤1500 m

Cloud ceiling ≤200 ft

N 125 0 0.0%

L 29 5 17.2%

ML 24 10 41.7%

MH 32 14 43.8%

H 25 17 68.0%

VH 7 7 100.0%

D0 LVP

Risk

No. of

occasions

forecast

LVP

conditions

met

Frequency

of LVP

occurrence

Winter 2018/2019 LVP Forecast Verification · Heathrow LVP verification © Crown Copyright 2019,...

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