Wint04 p44 Martin

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Winter 2004 The wired society: Interview with James MartinBusiness Strategy Review44

Dr. James Martin has been called “the guru of

the Information Age” and is an authority on the

social and commercial ramifications of computers

and technology. He received a Pulitzer Prize

nomination for his book The Wired Society: A

Challenge for Tomorrow based on his predictions

and progressive views about technology.



James Martin is founder and chairman emeritus

of Headstrong, a global consultancy that helps

leading companies create real business value

from digital technologies. He has acted as an

advisor to the UK government on restructuring

telecommunications in the UK and changing the

role of the Post Office, and consulted on planning,

product and service strategies for the long term

future with AT&T, IBM, Honeywell, Texas

Instruments, and Xerox. He has been a member of

the software Scientific Advisory Board of the US

Department of Defense.

In its 25th anniversary issue, Computerworld , ranked

Dr. Martin fourth among the 25 individuals who have

most influenced the world of computer science.

After the recent opening of the James Martin

Institute for Science and Civilization in Oxford,

James Martin talked to Des Dearlove about the

current state of technology and how it is likely

to impact on business in the future.

Why did you decide to found the James Martin

Institute for Science and Civilization?

The first part of the 21st century has some extreme

dangers and opportunities. They are examined in my

forthcoming book. This entire subject needs thorough

research and accurate data collection. Because theconsequences of getting it wrong are so immense, it

is, perhaps, the most important subject we should

be studying today. Society needs a School for

Civilization, not just a School for Business.

You are famous for predicting future trends –

particularly in technology. But isn’t the work of

futurists ultimately just guesswork. After all many

people were predicting technology would create

more leisure time but we instead we appear to be

working harder than ever.

In my view, responsible studies of the future arelogical explorations based on what we already know.

Understanding the future is a matter of logic, history,

science, and the understanding of complex

organisations. Many things about the future are

uncertain, but demographics are not. Also, much

can be predicted about future technology because

of the lengthy time lag between research in the lab

and application in the field. For example, when I

wrote The Wired Society in the mid-1970s, there

were no personal computers, and the internet was

little more than an idea about how large computers

could be interlinked. Some 25 years later the book

was hailed as an astonishingly accurate forecast of

a world using the global internet.

There are other major trends that are foreseeable,

some with a fair degree of accuracy. I call these

macrotrends in the book – that is, an ongoing trend

that has substantial consequences and seems either

inevitable or very difficult to change.

Much can be predicted, at least roughly, about

future technology – for example, the globalisation of

new media, and some of the consequences of

genome mapping. Some of today’s macrotrends will

create spectacular business opportunities.

Business Strategy ReviewThe wired society: Interview with James Martin Winter 2004 45



There have been many dramatic technological

advances in recent years. What do you think have

been the most significant ?

They would certainly include: The web, fiber optics,

real-time business-to-business communication,

micro-sensors, wireless technology, data mining,

medical imaging, genome mapping. The most

significant changes are perhaps in research and not

yet in products – nanotechnology, medicine related

to a person’s genes, genetic modification, the grid,

focused psychotropic drugs, technology for

automated evolution, intelligent robotics, fuel cells,

fourth-generation nuclear power, carbon nanotubes.

Do you see the pace of technological change ever

reaching a plateau?

The rate of change is relentlessly increasing.

Technology is like an avalanche gaining momentum

and force as it hurtles down the mountainside. Each

generation of technology provides better tools for

designing the next generation, and generations

follow each other increasingly quickly. The industrialrevolution set the avalanche going, moving slowly at

first, but now it is thundering down the mountainside

with awesome momentum. And we can be sure that

avalanche is not going to slow down now. On the

contrary, it will increase in speed and power for the

rest of this century. Only a catastrophe of

unspeakable scale could stop it. Many factors willdrive the relentless acceleration, including highly

developed computer intelligence feeding on itself,

and the intriguing potential of automating evolution.

So how is technology going to impact on business in

the near future?

Growing innovation; a growing need for

entrepreneurship; a growing need for freedom of

trade globally. There will be long-term on-going

increase in productivity, perhaps about 2.5 per cent

per year in advanced countries; a much higher rate

of growth in China and India. Plus a massive

increase in Chinese imports and exports. For the

consumer: increased choice, increased pressure,

but not necessarily increased happiness.

What are the big issues relating to technology facing

business?

Firstly, important and inevitable e-business transitions

were put on hold in many corporations in 2000 to

2003. They now need to be implemented. Secondly,

there is a steady movement of jobs, including high-

tech jobs, from affluent countries to China, India

and other countries.

Thirdly, in America and Europe: inadequate

education and inadequate resources for the highest-

quality education.

Technology isn’t always beneficial. What is the

potential downside for civilization?

Low-cost weapons of mass destruction, especially

biological weapons, producible by individuals or

groups rather than governments. The need to build

a counter-terrorist infrastructure in Western

societies, with a consequent redefinition of what we

mean by privacy.

Extraordinary divergence between the most

capable and least capable countries. Within each

country, a growing divide between the most capable

and least capable people.

Children with low attention span (ADHD), and

growing acceptance of violence. Increasing use of

more sophisticated drugs by children (beyond

Ritalin) with unknown consequences.

The serious growth of a skill/wisdom gap.

The brightest people are driven intensely intoever more demanding skills needing deeper and

narrower knowledge. Wisdom may be scarce when

we need it most.

All technology has the capability for good or evil.

The extraordinary technology of the 21st century

has the capability for great good or great evil. The

spectrum from good to evil is becoming muchlarger, and the larger this range, the greater the

need to accelerate the best technologies and

suppress the worst. It doesn’t make sense to

embrace technology just because it’s there, as we

have done in the past. We need the wisdom to

recognize that some new technologies are a

Godsend and others could wreck civilization.

Energy technologies that will stop the greenhouse

effect are vital; plutonium and smallpox should be

banished from the planet.

We have to realise that as the avalanche gains

momentum, there’s going to come a time when it

will become very difficult to control. Either we learn

how to control technology or it will destroy us, in

one way or another.

And the upside?

A change from very narrow cultural diversity to extreme

cultural diversity. Advanced intellectual power tools.

Access to an extraordinary diversity of such tools on

networks of immense bandwidth. Affluence and new

technologies will give us the opportunity to rethink

what civilization means. New and different civilizations

will develop in different parts of the world.

Winter 2004 The wired society: Interview with James MartinBusiness Strategy Review46

Either we learn how to control technology or it will destroy

us, in one way or another.



Why is it that many technological solutions fail to

deliver on their promises? Is this likely to change?

Irrational over-enthusiasm; inadequate

implementation skills; inadequate attention to valid

calculations of return on investment; failure to have

high-quality understanding between business

leaders and leaders of technical innovation;

inadequate understanding of the broad-spectrum

consequences; these are just some of the reasons.

Is it likely to change? Probably not, but the most

savvy executives get it right.

What will it be like to be a CEO in the future?

Being a top CEO will be an increasingly demanding

job, with an increasing ability to increase shareholder

value. Almost every industry needs radically

reinventing. The increasing complexity and globalism

will require increasing teamwork to integrate the

requisite forms of professionalism. Much greater

attention will be needed to social and global problems.

New forms of CEO-like leadership will be desperately

needed in dealing the world’s grand-scale problems.

Are you optimistic about the future?

Given our advancing knowledge, if we fail to create a

great civilization it will be because of avoidable

problems caused by greed, lack of education,

massive vested interests and bad governance. It may

be because companies drive excessive consumerism

and maximize profits by focusing on the lowest

common denominator. It may be because false

mythologies prevail instead of science. It may be that

science misleads us by focusing only on things it can

measure. It may be because the West is stuck in its

past. A wealthy society could be like Huxley ’s Brave

New World; it could be a society of drug-damaged

shop-till-you-drop imbeciles addled with garbage

television, or it could be a society educated to enjoy

the finest pleasures of civilization.

The task of the 21st century is to achieve

survivability – to eliminate the factors that could

destroy humanity. Many actions are needed; many

leverage factors are available to us. The corrections

need to be made sooner rather than later. The

longer we delay, the greater the risk.

Business Strategy ReviewThe wired society: Interview with James Martin Winter 2004 47

James Martin: hardwired

London Business School

Regent’s Park

London NW1 4SA

United Kingdom

Tel +44 (0)20 7262 5050

Fax +44 (0)20 7724 7875

www.london.edu

A Graduate School of the University of London

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