Winning with Analytics - Timothy Prescott · Title SLIDE ANALYTICS EVERYWHERE How the Obama...
Transcript of Winning with Analytics - Timothy Prescott · Title SLIDE ANALYTICS EVERYWHERE How the Obama...
Title SLIDE
ANALYTICS EVERYWHEREHow the Obama campaign used data scienceto win support and rally voters.
by Timothy Prescott
Source: Pete Souza, Chief White House Photographer
“I’m working harder than ever before but falling
further and further behind”
Source: istockphoto, licensed
No President re‐elected since FDR with unemployment over 7.2%
Source: tradingeconomics.com, bureau of labor statistics
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
mei‐11 jul‐11 sep‐11 nov‐11 jan‐12 mrt‐12 mei‐12 jul‐12 sep‐12 nov‐12
7.2%
U.S. unemployment rate
We won nine out of ten “swing states”
Source: the New York Times
1 ‐ Expand the electorate
2 ‐ Persuade the electorate
3 ‐ Get out the vote (GOTV)
Strategy for victory
As Ohio goes, so goes the nation
Likely strong supporter but not registered to vote
REGISTER
Likely strong Romney supporter
SKIP
Likely voter but likely undecided
PERSUADE
Very unlikely to voteSKIP
Likely supporter but sporadic voter
GOTV
Welcome to Columbus, Ohio
Source: Google streetview
Pred
icted Likelihoo
d to Vote
Predicted Likelihood to Support Obama
0% 100%
= Registered Voter
Scientifically understanding voters
Voters, by support and vote likelihood
PERSUADE
ACTIVATE
GET OUT THE VOTE
50%
48%
52%
54%
46%
JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT
PAUL RYANANNOUNCED
SCANDAL47%
POLLSGALLUP
FIRST DEBATE
Scientifically understanding voters
Source: graphics: bloomberg business week; data: obama for america, gallup.
Polling, over time
50%
48%
52%
54%
46%
JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT
ANALYTICSOBAMA CAMPAIGN
PAUL RYANANNOUNCED
SCANDAL47%
FIRST DEBATE
Scientifically understanding voters
Source: graphics: bloomberg business week; data: obama for america, gallup.
Polling, over time
50%
48%
52%
54%
46%
JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT
POLLSGALLUP
ANALYTICSOBAMA CAMPAIGN
PAUL RYANANNOUNCED
SCANDAL47%
FIRST DEBATE
ENDRESULT
Scientifically understanding voters
Source: graphics: bloomberg business week; data: obama for america, gallup.
Polling, over time
Scientifically understanding voters
Source: graphics: obama for america;; data: obama for america.
Win Probability, October 2012
Data science isn’t really about data, nor science…
Assumptions? Rarely left in place without numbers to back them up...
You are either getting supporters to the polls, persuading voters, or raising money to finance the first two.
If your data is not actionable it’s not data science, it’s just theory, fun facts.
The story of fired up, ready to go
Are you fired up, ready to go?
Source: Google streetview