Winning Metro 100G - ECOC Exhibition · The 100G LR4 client is an ... Examples of winning...

© Copyright Ovum. All rights reserved. Ovum is a subsidiary of Informa plc. 1

Winning Metro 100G

Daryl Inniss, PhD

[email protected]

ECOC 2013, Market Focus

23 September 2013

100G Price Challenge

mailto:[email protected]

© Copyright Ovum. All rights reserved. Ovum is an Informa business. 2

Executive summary

History: 100G so far

Why is metro so important?

What are the new opportunities?

Examples of winning strategies

What about beyond 100?

Outline


Executive summary

The 100G long-haul market is in good shape as the 100G DWDM line card has reached price parity

with 10G for long-haul transmission and the bill of materials costs have tracked

The 100G LR4 client is an exception – it has not yet reached parity with 10G

Metro is the next DWDM 100G market opportunity

Metro demand is critically important because it drives up volume, drives down cost, and the

solutions improve and ultimately support the long-haul market. Moreover, the metro solution is the

platform for next-generation coherent transmission

A completely different design is being developed for metro due to cost sensitivity

Pluggable modules are being developed in the CFP and CFP2 form factor

The transmitter, receiver, and ICs are all being redesigned

CFP2 will likely be the volume market, but the products will take longer to develop

Module with the DSP on the board is gated by the need for a robust high-speed analog link

between the transceiver and the DSP chip

Module with the DSP inside is gated by the need for a low-power-consumption chip

Winning component strategies include

vertical integration; photonic-integrated products; building volume; and solutions that work for both

CFP and CFP2


Executive summary, Ovum view, and Recommendations





What about beyond 100?

Outline


Component and long-haul line-card price declines track

Component

costs track

system costs

NB: Scenario discussion only; not an official Ovum forecast

100G LH system cost

has reached parity

with 10 x 10G – this

drives volume

~50% drop in 2 years

Normal price

declines resume


System vendors’ forward pricing strategy worked to

launch the long-haul 100G market

…and volume has accelerated

100G is now cost-effective

compared with 10G…

6x


Metro places new cost pressures on the market

How can components cost track metro line card?

This is the estimated

price of the metro line

card. The target is 50%

of the price of the

long-haul line card.


Executive summary





What about beyond 100G?

Outline


Metro solutions become pervasive

Compared to long-haul

metro is cost-sensitive

metro has shorter distance requirements

Components are specially designed to support metro requirements

DSPs with lower dispersion compensation

Modulators for shorter reach

Photonic integration of transmitters and receivers to support the lower cost and shorter distances

Multiple 100G line-card ports for lower system cost

The high volume pushes the technologies designed for metro to become mature

The metro solutions improve over time and are ultimately used for regional and long-haul applications


Metro can drive high volumes!

• Ovum’s latest volume forecast (TE003-000570) shows higher metro

volumes than LH but assumes high metro prices

• Low prices can drive metro volumes to levels 3 to 5 times greater than

LH volumes

Adjusted metro

volumes assuming

low prices


Metro technology is ultimately used in long-haul

System designers want cost reduction but can be resistant to change

DSP complexity increases resistance to changing 100G coherent

Therefore, 100G metro design window is critical for introducing newer, better

technology

Technical advances can “trickle up” to LH, delivering smaller size, modularity,

and cost reduction

Over time, these new technologies can be brought to bear on LH

For example, 10G DWDM is now in XFP/SFP+ – these form factors and

components were originally for datacom, then moved to telecom client-side, then

telecom line-side

LH

Metro + LH


Metro components will help drive down long-haul cost

All parts of the line card will see major changes that decrease both size and cost

Many of these changes can be applied to LH

CFP coherent module

(“digital”)

Coherent transmit

electronics

DWDM receive optics

DWDM transmit optics

Coherent receive

electronics

Clie

nt C

FP

tran

sc

eiv

er

LH line card today

168-pin coherent module or

equivalent

Target metro line card 2014

CFP2 coherent module

(“analog”)

Coherent

Tx+Rx IC DWDM Rx optics

DWDM Tx optics

CF

P

Coherent


DWDM Tx optics

CF

P

Coherent


DWDM Tx optics

Coherent


DWDM Tx optics CF

P

4

Future LH line card 20??

5”x7” 4”x5”

CF

P

4


Don’t confuse line-side CFP and CFP2 with client side, but

common footprint expands coherent transceiver market

Client or datacom module world

CFP CFP2 CFP4

Source: CFP-MSA.org

Source: Molex

Just one step in continuous migration to smaller size

Telecom line-side world

A different relationship

between optics module

and system vendor

customer

Coherent

Tx+Rx ASIC

DWDM Tx Optics

DWDM Rx Optics

CF

P2

Coherent

Tx+Rx ASIC DWDM Rx Optics

DWDM Tx Optics

CF

P2

CF

P2

Merchant Merchant In-house or partner

CF

P

Merchant module vs merchant optics + in-house ASIC

CXP

QSFP28


Module choice is linked to ASIC – for example, CFP2

with ASIC is best today as it can sit in any CFP2 slot

Telecom line-side world

A different

relationship between

optics module and

system vendor

customer

But transition to module opens old wounds: who owns the ASIC?


Executive summary






Outline


New opportunity exists for metro 100G component

Pluggable coherent transceivers are being developed for the line side

These will be the first pluggable coherent transceivers introduced to the market

The CFP includes the optics and the DSP chip in the module

There are two CFP2 options – one with the DSP in the module and the second with the DSP on the board

Low-power ASIC is required due to the low target CFP power consumption; an even lower-power ASIC is needed for the CFP2

High-speed analog link is required between the CFP2 transceiver and the ASIC sitting on the board. This will be the first coherent connector at these data rates

Lower-cost client-side transceiver is needed to support the metro cost target

The coherent transceiver module needs integrated transmit and receive optics to support the small size, low power, and low cost

New technologies are being developed to support the transmit and/or receive optics


CFP path is clear, but there is uncertainty in the CFP2

solution

CFP has the DSP in the module. Low power consumption is required.

The DSP is most likely developed and owned by the module provider

CFP2 has numerous potential paths

DSP on the board is a solution supported by the OEMs as they control it.

Availability is gated by the need for a high-speed connector to the module

DSP in the module is supported by module vendors as they would control

the optics and all the electronics. Availability is gated by the need for a

low-power DSP and understanding of the application space it can support

History teaches us that the lowest-cost solution includes the IC on the

board and the optics in the module. We cannot discount that coherent

may usher in a new era, with the lowest-cost solution being a common

transceiver form factor suitable for all client- and line-side applications


CFP and CFP2 have different start dates and volume outlooks

CFP

Available sooner, may use

existing components

Limited addressable market size

Contains DSP chip, so may not

serve customers who have own

DSP already

CFP2

Requires new components

High-speed analog electrical connection

needed between DSP and module

Addresses entire customer base

Leading proponents are customers with

own DSP (which do not buy modules

today)

Caution: these customers may still want

discretes, not modules

Addressable application space to be

determined

Limited reach due to lower power,

smallest modulator

Pursue module as incremental

revenue if you already have

components that fit

All new component development should be CFP2-capable, since it can

address the CFP, CFP2, and discretes opportunities with the same design


Metro component challenges and opportunities

CFP2 optics can

be used in CFP

but not vice

versa

CFP2 requires high-speed

connector, line drivers, and

very good TIA in Rx

Client LR4 CFP has not

reached parity with 10G

CFP LR4 is same price as DWDM

non-coherent LR4

Introduction of CPAK splits next-

gen (CFP2) market volume

Coherent

Tx+Rx ASIC

DWDM Tx Optics

DWDM Rx Optics

CF

P2

Coherent

Tx+Rx ASIC DWDM Rx Optics

DWDM Tx Optics

CF

P2

CF

P2

CF

P

ASIC needs

very low

power for

CFP, but

same design

should

support

CFP2 and

ideally LH


DWDM transmitter optics technology changes are in

progress

Semiconductor modulator instead of LiNbO

InP and silicon modulators are being considered

What reach is possible?

Cost savings

Laser integrated with modulator

Local oscillator and transmit laser combined

Tunable

CW laser

4 modulators Tx

Transmit optics

Transmitter laser to

receiver to serve as

local oscillator

Integrated


DWDM receiver optics technology changes are also in

progress

Includes TIA, which strictly speaking is electronics

TIA needs bleeding-edge performance due to intimate connection to

coherent DSP

Additional dynamic range needed for colorless

ICR (integrated coherent receiver): higher index waveguides for size

also helps wafer cost but hurts link budget

PBS Rx

2 T

IAs

4 P

Ds

2 T

IAs

4 P

Ds

BS

90-deg

optical

hybrid

90-deg

optical

hybrid

Receive optics

Transmitter laser

for local oscillator

Waveguides being

redesigned to fit in

CFP and CFP2


Electronics technology changes in progress

Coherent DSP: new metro design is opportunity to move to next

silicon process, but cost needs to be considerably reduced to justify

re-spin

Mux already moved from SiGe to CMOS. Next: integrate mux with

receiver DSP, whenever yield/process maturity allows

Modulator driver: GaAs → InP → SiGe?

Connector, line drivers, etc. to maintain signal integrity for high-speed

analog connection is a new requirement

Dem

ux

A/D

A/D

A/D

A/D DS

P

Receive electronics

Mux 4 drivers

Transmit electronics

Combine mux and demux in CMOS


Silicon photonics competes with InP but no clear winner

InP is competitive with LiNbO in the pluggable modules due to its small

size; silica receiver struggles with CFP/CFP2; Si getting stronger over time

Where Feature Glass LiNbO InP Si

ICR

Integrated

PD

No n/a yes ~Yes (Ge)

PBS

integrated

Yes n/a no Yes?

Coupling

efficiency

Good if low

index delta

n/a Good with

3D taper

?

Modulator

Maturity n/a Incumbent Already

available

Research

Integrated

laser

n/a No Yes, not

always

Research


Executive summary, Ovum view, and Recommendations






Outline


Consider winning strategies to attack metro

Identify the correct end-goal, play the long game, and drive volumes

Tunable XFP market

Acquisition

Nortel invested in coherent DSP ~2003 while the rest of industry cut costs.

Ciena still benefits from technology lead 10 years later

JDSU, the dominant tunable XFP supplier, acquired Agility in 2005 specifically

to make tunable XFP while other vendors tried to “move up the food chain”

Recognized that OEM customers like

transceivers, even for line side

Desirable product able to command

premium despite “cheap” form factor

Currently pursuing coherent CFP2

First to market, high barrier to entry


Other examples of winning strategies

Identify what is critical and become the best at it

InPhi working on high-speed TIA (40G) in 2000. QPSK requires four TIAs; next-

gen 16-QAM will require even more

Kyocera high-speed package

CFP2 connector and line drivers: who will do?

Recognize this may mean accepting a role relative to generational life cycle.

Be ready to trade up

Semtech dominated mux (transmit electronics) market in early stage at 40G,

100G with SiGe part. Now 100G in CMOS, SiGe is moving on to 400G

Fujitsu Optical Components LiNbO3 modulator at forefront of performance from

10G to 40G multi-level, then to 100G coherent. As InP/Si moves into 100G

metro/LH, LiNbO3 stays incumbent in ULH 100G and also moves on to 400G

Aggregate volumes across applications


Executive summary






Outline


Consider coherent era is just beginning

100G LH

100G Metro

100G Metro

100G LH

2013 2014 2015 2016

Co

st

per

lin

e c

ard

200G LH

400G

Metro, LH?

1 port

per card 2 ports

4 ports


Long-haul market is in good shape

100G DWDM line card price has reached parity with 10G for long haul

Bill-of-materials costs have tracked 100G LH system costs

Exception: 100G LR4 client has not yet reached parity with 10G

Metro is a life cycle stage

2014 is the year for new cost-reduced designs motivated by metro demand

These cost reductions will help with both metro and long-haul

Coherent CFP2 is more than a form factor between CFP and CFP4

As a pluggable module it can address a bigger market

The best long-term component investments work for both CFP and CFP2


Pick the winner, do not game the system

The “long game” includes coherent for multiple applications

Summary


Disclaimer

All Rights Reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, Ovum (an Informa business).

The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that Ovum delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such Ovum can accept no liability whatever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect.

Winning Metro 100G - ECOC Exhibition · The 100G LR4 client is an ... Examples of winning...

Documents

Transcript of Winning Metro 100G - ECOC Exhibition · The 100G LR4 client is an ... Examples of winning...