Winning in a VUCA World: Leading for Innovation and Growth

Winning in a VUCA WorldProfessor Peter Fisk

WINNING IN A VUCA WORLDLeaders that drives innovation and growth. Peter Fisk

2

Disruptive innovation

The opportunities of change

Making the future happen

Marketing has changedMaking sense of change

Unlimited opportunity

Anything is possible

People want and expect more

Complex and realtime

Investors expect and want more

VolatileUncertain

ComplexAmbiguous

VibrantUnrealCrazyAstounding

Your future for $99

Uber and beyond

Harley Davidson

Robot heart surgery

Simple is often better

Xiaomi, the new Apple

Indias frugal future

Global internet for all

Worldchanging Growth

Guiyang Circle

GuiyangChina

106.6 E, 26.6 N4100km radius

Most of the worldlives here

Data connections

DISRUPTIVETECHNOLOGIES

Worldchanging decade

2010Pop 6.9BnGDP $63T

G7


E7

E7 = China, Malaysia, Chile, Poland, Peru, Mexico, Philippines

Worldchanging decade


G7


E7

Tectonic shifts

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EastSmall

WestBig

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ProfitVolume

Speedboats beat

fast and focused

supertankers

ImaginationCapability

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CollaborativeIndependentDisruptingEvolving

Consumers in control

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Context and relevance

ConsumerPull

Individual

BusinessPush

Average

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Megatrends 2025

Human Technology

Global

Personal

Circular Economy

Reputation andPrivacy

CollaborativeConsumption

AnytimeAnywhere

Wearables and Sensors

Primary Megatrends

Enabling Megatrends

SupportingMegatrends

Human Technology

Global

Personal

Circular Economy

Robotics and Intelligence

Big Dataand Clouds

Smart Cities &Creative Hubs



Social Change and New Tribes

Wellbeing andBiotech

AnytimeAnywhere


Primary Megatrends

Enabling Megatrends


Human Technology

Global

Personal

Connectivity &Convergence

New Business Models

Circular Economy

Robotics and Intelligence

Big Dataand Clouds

Smart Cities &Creative Hubs



Social Change and New Tribes

Wellbeing andBiotech

Emerging markets

Urban Livingand Travel

AnytimeAnywhere

3D Printing &Smart Systems


Primary Megatrends

Enabling Megatrends


GAMECHANGERS: WORLDS MOST DISRUPTIVE INNOVATORS

9

Every second

Exponentially changing world

1 24 8

1632

64

Exponential rise of big data

20101ZB

Zetta = 101 Zettabyte = 1 trillion GB

21


20101ZB

20157ZB


21


20101ZB

20157ZB

202040ZB


21

ContactsEmailsSMS messagesDirect marketing

PhotosBlogsSearchE-CommerceAdvertisingDigital marketingRecommendations

MusicPhotosVideoGamesM-CommerceSensorsTransactionsLog fileseGovernmentWeatherConferencingGPS LocationsInternet of thingsIntelligent processes

CRM/ERP

Web 2.0

Big dataData Volume

Data Complexity

10 B18

10 B15

10 B12

10 B9

Can you see the man?

EMOTIONAL

INTUITIVE

CONNECTED

RATIONAL

ANALYTICAL

FOCUSED

LEFT BRAIN + RIGHT BRAIN

INTELLIGENT + IMAGINATIVE

TODAY + TOMORROW

Redefining markets

Shaping the future+genius

Future Back

Future back

Now forward2016

2021

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Moonshot Factory

Google

Why be 10% better?

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When you could be 10x better?

Audacious ideas

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es

1. 23 & Me2. Aravind3. Editas4. Genentech5. Intuitive Surgical6. Narayana Hosp7. Organova8. PatientsLikeMe9. Scanadu10. Second Sight

1. Amazon2. Aussie Farmers3. Etsy4. Farfetch5. Le Pain Quotidien6. Pinterest7. Positive Luxury8. Trader Joes9. Yihaodian10. Zappos

1. Apple2. Beautyin3. DJI4. Go Pro5. Lego6. Method7. Natura8. Nike+9. Oculus Rift10. Renova

1. Alibaba2. ARM3. Bharti Airtel4. GE5. Google X6. OneWeb7. Raspberry Pi8. Samsung9. Slack10. Xiaomi

1. Aeromobil2. Air Asia3. Airbnb4. CitizenM5. Emirates6. Kulula7. RedBus8. Uber9. Virgin Galactic10. Zipcars

1. 3DHubs2. Corning3. DP World4. Dyson5. Embraer6. Local Motors7. Space X8. Syngenta9. Tata10. Tesla

1. Brewdog2. GrameenDanone3. Graze4. Juan Valdez 5. LA Organic6. Moa Beer7. Modern Meadow8. Nespresso9. Yeni Reki10. Zespri

1. Ashmei2. Beats3. Desigual4. Jonny Cupcake5. Inditex6. Patagonia7. Rapha8. Shang Xai9. Threadless10. Toms

1. Aspiration2. La Caixa3. Fidor4. First National5. Moven6. M-Pesa7. Robinhood8. Square9. Umpqau10. Zidisha

1. Al Jazeera2. Coursera3. Netflix4. Periscope5. Pledge Music6. Red Bull7. RiotGames8. Ushahida9. ViceMedia10. WeChat

futureproduct futurefashion futurefood

futurehealth futuretech futuremakersfuturebank

futuretravel

N/S American brands European brands African/Arab brands Asia/Pacific brands

futuremedia

This image cannot currently be displayed.

1. Ashoka2. AzuriTech3. Graal Bio4. IBM5. IDEO6. Kickstarter7. Li & Fung8. Live Nation9. Salesforce10. Y Combinator

1. Bitcoin2. Bhutan3. City FC4. The Elders5. Lovemarks6. ParkRun7. Planetary Res8. WWF9. Zoe Suggs10. You

futureservice futurebrands

Peter Fisk [email protected]

GAMECHANGERS: WORLDS MOST DISRUPTIVE INNOVATORS

futurestore

audacious

networked

intelligent

Change

Whyenabling

collaborative

10 types of innovation

10x10 types of innovation

Businessmodel

FinanceNetworking

2. Networkingenterprises structure/value chain

1. Business modelhow the enterprise makes money

Channel

DeliveryBrand Customer

experience

10. Customer experience how you create an overall experience for customers

9. Brandhow you express your offerings benefit to customers

Coreprocess

ProcessEnablingprocess

3. Enabling processassembled capabilities

4. Core processproprietary processes that add value

6. Product systemextended system that surrounds an offering

Productperformance

OfferingProductsystem

Service

7. Servicehow you service your customers

5. Product performancebasic features, performance and functionality

8. Channelhow you connect your offerings to your customers

10 types of innovation

Volume of innovation effortsLast 10 years

Businessmodel

FinanceNetworking Channel


experienceCoreprocess


Productperformance


Service

Most common innovation

Businessmodel

FinanceNetworking Channel


experienceCoreprocess


Productperformance


Service

Cumulative value creationLast 10 years

Most effective innovation

Dont just play the gameChange the game

23andMe

Amazon

Amazon Dash

Red Bull

Nespresso

Teslas market

Tesla Motors

Peter Fisk 2013Gamechangers.pro

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Rockets Creative Beer

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Lululemons Yoga Beer

New Zealands Moa Beer

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Beer 52 by Subscription

Peter Fisk 2015More details in the new Gamechangers book +genius

1. Start from the future Back

2020

2016


ConsumerBusiness

2. Think like a consumer, not a product


3. Define the space you want to win in

Why

What

Make and distribute

business model

eg CocaCola

Microsoft

Spectrum retail

business model

eg Amazon

Marks & Spencer

Make and sell direct

business model

eg BMW, HSBC

Niche retail

business model

eg ToysRUs, Wiggle

License to make

business model

eg ARM, Ed Hardy

Curated retail

business model

eg Fab,

Positive Luxury

Membership club

business model

eg Costco,

Quintessentially

Crowdfunded ventures

business model

eg Kickstarter,

Zidisha

Opensourced

community

business model

eg RedHat, MySQL

Subscription payment

business model

eg FT.com, Graze

Buyer and seller

marketplace

business model

eg Etsy, NYSE

Micro payments

business model

eg Flattr

Grameen Danone

Collaborative

consumption

business model

eg Buzzcar, Regus

Regular Replacement

business model

eg Gillette,

Nespresso

Branded Consortia

business model

eg Cisco, Spar

Advertising or

Sponsorship

business model

eg Google,

Metro Newspapers

Listed or Promoted

business model

eg Monster Linkedin

Network builders

business model

eg Hotmail, Twitter

Demand then Made

business model

eg ZaoZao,

Threadless

Auction retail

business model

eg eBay, Sotheby

Knowledge and time

business model

eg McKinsey, Harvard

Franchised retail

business model

eg McDonalds,

Subway

Certification and

endorsement

business model

eg ISO, Verisign

Remainder retail

business model

Eg Saks,

Vente Privee

Multulevel

marketing

business model

eg Tupperware,

Natura

Group buying

business model

eg Groupon,

Huddlebuy

Reverse auction

business model

eg Priceline

Freemarkets

Shared rental

business model

eg Zilok, Hilton

Tradeable currency

business model

eg Bitcoin Air Miles

Freemium pay within

business model

eg Angry Bird,

Coursera

Transaction facilitator

business model

eg Paypal, Visa

Pay as you go

business model

eg AzuriTech

Techshop

Dynamic pricing

business model

eg Expedia, Uber

Reputation builders

business model

eg Tripadvisor,

PaywithaTweet

Customer data

business model

eg Facebook,

23andMe

Non-profit business

business model

eg Oxfam Wikipedia

Maker models Channel models

Crowd models Payment models

Exchange models Asset models


4. Innovate new business models

Commodityproduct

Brandedproduct

Personalservice

Brandedexperience

Customersexperience

Distinctivedesign

Empatheticdelivery

Integratedjourney

Enabling more

2c coffeebeans

20c brandedcoffee

$2 coffeein store

$20 lunchwith friends

Ad

ded

val

ue th

roug

h d

iffe

rent

iati

on

Added value through relevance

5. Enhance the experience you enable

Movement Collaborative

Customer

Customer Customer

CustomerCustomer

Customer

Brand-enabled

community

Co-enable Co-design

Co-create

Co-sellCo-support

Co-consume

6. Build a brand-enabled community

7. Build a storymap to accelerate growth

Peter Fisk 2015More details in the new Gamechangers book

Page 16

Visi

on 3

Visi

on 2

Visi

on 1

Deliv

erab

les

3

Deliv

erab

les

2

Deliv

erab

les

1

Resu

lts 3

Resu

lts 2

Resu

lts 1

Horizon 1 delivers

excellence and quick wins

Horizon 2 delivers

new concepts and extensions

Horizon 3 delivers

breakthroughsand a new core

101



Making the future happen

What will you do?

GeniusWorks 2012. All rights reserved.

Actual profits of previous years

Estimated profits of future years

Adjusted profits of future years(discounted for uncertainty)

Economic value is the sum of the likely future profits

(more accurately, we consider the economic profit, which takes into the cost of capital)

This year

Futureyears

Previousyears

Total shareholder return

Currentbusiness

value

Potentialbusiness

value

ChangeWHY

ChangeWHO

ChangeWHAT

ChangeHOW

Strategic innovation

PurposeDirection

Brand

MarketsCustomersAspirations

PropositionsSolutions

Experiences

Business modelPricing

Networks

Value creation

Changing the game

Acting with speed and agility

Connecting ideas and

people

Passion to make life

better

Having an audacious

attitude

Shaping your own

vision

Making sense of change

Persisting to make it happen


Leaders amplifythe potential of others

Command Control Connect

Catalyse Communicate Coach

Leadership

2C

Conventional leaderstop of the pyramid

Innovative leadershub of the network

4C

2C to 4C leaders

Command Control

ConnectCatalyse

Communicate

Coach

+genius

Be boldBe brave

Be brilliant

[email protected]

Winning in a VUCA World: Leading for Innovation and Growth

Business

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