WINGS OVER KNOXVILLE ACQUISITION OPPORTUNITY
Transcript of WINGS OVER KNOXVILLE ACQUISITION OPPORTUNITY
WINGS OVER KNOXVILLEACQUISITION OPPORTUNITY
AUGUST 30TH, 2020
TYLER SHINE; VICE PRESIDENT, STRATEGY & CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Executive Summary
• Site Overview
• Financial Analysis
• Market / Competitive Set Details
• Key Opportunities
• Key Risks / Mitigants
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
• Wings Over, a 40-unit fast casual restaurant operator with geographic density in the
Northeast and Midwestern United States (www.wingsover.com) is offering a chance to
buy into a currently-operational store in Knoxville, TN.
• The store is located on Cumberland Avenue, on the campus of the University of
Tennessee, and currently meets 100% of corporate-defined standards for renovation
quality and technology suite integrations (will not require incremental capital
deployment for ~5 years).
• Unit is corporate-operated today; company strategy has shifted such that Knoxville
area is no longer a priority for long-term expansion and unit density
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (CONT.)
• Incoming operator will pay franchise fees of $30,000 to cover cost of franchise
agreement origination and execution
• Operator will not be required to pay royalty fees to Wings Over for the first twelve
months of ownership
• After first twelve months of ownership, operator will be responsible for payment of a)
5% of monthly gross sales in the form of a royalty payment; b) a percentage of gross
sales for contribution to a national advertising fund; and c) 20-30% of net operating
profit shared with Wings Over in perpetuity
SITE OVERVIEW
SITE OVERVIEW
• Location is on the heart of University of Tennessee campus and directly adjacent to
downtown Knoxville demand drivers: Knoxville Convention Center, regional medical
center, football stadium, and university.
• Population density, household count, and median household income all in line with
highest-performing Wings Over units in system
• Visibility of site equivalent to highest-grossing downtown restaurant locations
• No concerns around ingress/egress, signage, or parking ability relative to highest-
performing units in Wings Over system
SITE OVERVIEW (CONT.)
• Direct fast casual competitive set includes Chipotle, Panera, and Panda Express. Units
in all three systems rank either “A” or “B” within their respective branding, confirming
feasibility of fast-casual restaurant product in geography.
• Secondary quick-service competitive set includes McDonalds, Jimmy Johns, Chick-Fil-A,
and Taco Bell: these restaurants tend to be indicators of total restaurant demand in an
immediate geography, but are not indicative of market share concerns
• Significant student housing density in walkable area substantiate high-margin walk-up
traffic through dinner and late-night dayparts.
SITE OVERVIEW (CONT.)
SITE OVERVIEW (CONT.)
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS
• Upside exists in transaction value: Store’s average check is well below system
average, which indicates opportunity to be driven by local market share improvements
/ direct ordering platform shift / new menu ramp-up.
• Third-party mix will be further optimized: Although the store has not had a
chance to leverage its direct ordering platform and late-night menu for walk-up
businesses, its 3P mix is already strong relative to corporate-operated average
• Marketing costs will decrease substantially over time: The more limited use of
localized marketing techniques, paid equity and media channels (i.e. Facebook, Spotify),
and discounts on various food items will improved operating margins over time
SUMMARY CONCLUSIONS (CONT.)
• Occupancy costs are manageable and predictable: The rent resets outlined in
the lease are at or below market, which is reflective of the restaurant’s new
construction status
• Initial 12 months of royalty forgiveness will assist in operator ramp: Having
flexible operating leverage as the store’s marketing competencies and revenue base
increase market share minimizes operating risk in the asset.
• Cash on cash yield and IRR are attractive for range of investors: Both financial
investors and operating partners, when operating the restaurant to full potential, will
find enough “skin in the game” to deem the investment attractive.
DRIVERS OF GROWTHWings Over Knoxville: Drivers of Growth
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Comments
DOG Stats
Start Date of Construction 1/1/2021 Assumed transition date to franchisee of 1/1/2021
End Date of Construction 1/9/2021 Likely to open and operate on day of transition: no capex needed
Square Footage 2,390 Validated per
Inflation Rate 2.3% Assumes normalized inflationary environment through and after pandemic
Federal Tax Rate 21.0% Unchanged through hold period
Maintenance Capex Assumption (as % Revenues) 0.5% Per M.Blinn R&M standards shared with stores
Revenue Drivers
Revenue / Transaction $ 17.00 $ 17.39 $ 17.79 $ 18.20 $ 18.62 Assumes increased delivery and take-out mix, improved upsell from new menu
Transaction Count 51,500 77,250 92,700 92,700 92,700 $150 / hour in first year; top-line comps up 60% months 13-24 / 20% months 25-36
Direct Revenue Mix 40.0% 47.5% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% Using historical Lunchbox launches as proxy: potentially conservative given college campus
Third Party Revenue Mix 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% Difficult to roll off 3P volume in ramping store
Other Income (as % Revenue) 25.0% 22.5% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% Large-format (catering) business accounted for in top-line projections
Pre-GOP Expense Drivers
Food Cost (as % Revenues) 35.0% 34.0% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0% Columbus stabilizing between 34-35%; accounting for ops control in ordering / PAR sheets
Beverage Cost (as % Revenues) 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Food & beverage cost mix inaccurate until beverage program determined
Discounts (as % Revenues) 5.0% 3.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Marketing budget ramps down over time as share stabilizes
Total Salaries & Wages Expense (as % Revenues) 35.0% 32.0% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0% Based on ramping store vs. stabilized store goals in system; Columbus 2019 was 35%
Salaries & Wages Expenses Mix
Payroll Expenses 86.8% 86.8% 86.8% 86.8% 86.8% Normalized spread of payroll expenses
Payroll Taxes 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% 9.8% 9.8%
Officer Salary 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Other Payroll 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Operating Expense Drivers
Third Party Processing Fees (as % 3rd Party Revenue) 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.0% Assumes industry consolidation reduces preferential rates
Driver Reimbursements (as % Revenues) 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% Conservative 3P rates, but assumes limited in-house delivery infrastructure
Advertising & Promotion (as % Revenues) 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% Additional marketing requirements beyond loyalty-focused tech (Lunchbox)
Other OpEx (as % Revenues) 11.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% From P&L analysis of corporate-owned Wings Over stores (including GM comp)
Sales Taxes (as % of Revenues) - - - - -
Rent (PSF) $ 29.50 $ 30.18 $ 30.87 $ 31.58 $ 32.31 Occupancy cost tieout from DCH-executed lease
Utilities (PSF) $ 8.00 $ 8.18 $ 8.37 $ 8.56 $ 8.76 Occupancy cost tieout from DCH-executed lease
CAM (PSF) $ 6.00 $ 6.14 $ 6.28 $ 6.42 $ 6.57 Occupancy cost tieout from DCH-executed lease
NOP Adjustments
Royalty Fees to Wings Over, Inc. (as % Revenues) - 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Fees may be discounted or eliminated for period of time after ownership transition
Other Income (Below the Line, as % Revenues) 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% From P&L analysis of corporate-owned Wings Over stores (no operating leverage)
Depreciation (absolute $) - - - - - No capital contribution, so no eligibiilty for bonus depreciation in structure
Amortization (absolute $) - - - - - No debt tied to store level
Ops Manager Salaries & Benefits (absolute $) - - - - - Acquirer unlikely to be multi-unit operator, so will not need district-level allocation
Assumption Notes
Transaction volume assumed to be stable two years post-acquisition: limited available unit count growth / low ancillary population in area decreased stabilized count
Advertising & promotion assumed to ramp down as local marketing tactics take hold, app downloads stabilize
P&L STATEMENT
Wings Over Knoxville: P&L 2021+F2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue
Revenues: Direct 350,200 638,141 824,613 843,579 862,981
Revenues: Third Party 306,425 403,036 412,306 421,789 431,490
Other Income 164,156 234,265 309,230 316,342 323,618
Total Revenue $ 820,781 $ 1,275,442 $ 1,546,148 $ 1,581,710 $ 1,618,089
Food COGS
Food COGS 287,273 433,650 510,229 521,964 533,969
Beverage COGS 4,104 6,377 7,731 7,909 8,090
Discounts 41,039 38,263 27,831 28,471 29,126
Total COGS 332,416 478,291 545,790 558,344 571,185
Gross Profit $ 488,365 $ 797,151 $ 1,000,358 $ 1,023,366 $ 1,046,904
Gross Profit % 59.5% 62.5% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7%
Salaries & Wages
Payroll Expenses 249,353 354,267 416,038 425,607 435,395
Payroll Taxes 28,153 39,998 46,972 48,052 49,158
Other Salaried Labor 8,331 11,836 13,900 14,220 14,547
Other Payroll 1,436 2,041 2,397 2,452 2,508
Total Salaries & Wages 287,273 408,142 479,306 490,330 501,608
Gross Operating Profit $ 201,091 $ 389,010 $ 521,052 $ 533,036 $ 545,296
Gross Operating Profit % 24.5% 30.5% 33.7% 33.7% 33.7%
Operating Expenses
Third Party Processing Fees 45,964 60,455 61,846 63,268 64,724
Driver Reimbursements 16,416 12,754 15,461 15,817 16,181
Rent 70,505 72,127 73,786 75,483 77,219
Utilities 19,120 19,560 20,010 20,470 20,941
CAM 14,340 14,670 15,007 15,352 15,705
Advertising & Promotion 24,623 25,509 23,192 23,726 24,271
Other OpEx 90,286 114,790 123,692 110,720 113,266
Total Operating Expenses 281,254 319,865 332,994 324,836 332,307
Net Operating Profit $ (80,162) $ 69,145 $ 188,058 $ 208,201 $ 212,989
Net Operating Profit % (9.8)% 5.4% 12.2% 13.2% 13.2%
NOP Adjustments
Manny Salary - - - - -
Other Income (Below the Line) 4,104 6,377 7,731 7,909 8,090
Royalty Fees - (63,772) (77,307) (79,085) (80,904)
Total NOP Adjustments 4,104 (57,395) (69,577) (71,177) (72,814)
Adjusted Net Operating Profit $ (76,058) $ 11,750 $ 118,481 $ 137,024 $ 140,175
Adjusted Net Operating Profit % (9.3)% 0.9% 7.7% 8.7% 8.7%
RETURNS TO ACQUIRERWings Over Knoxville: Returns Analysis
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Adjusted Net Operating Profit $ (76,058) $ 9,400 $ 88,861 $ 95,917 $ 98,123
Less: Depreciation & Amortization - - - - -
Adjusted NOP Less D&A (76,058) 9,400 88,861 95,917 98,123
Less: Cash Taxes @ 21% 15,972 (1,974) (18,661) (20,142) (20,606)
Tax-Effected Net Operating Profit (60,086) 7,426 70,200 75,774 77,517
Plus: Depreciation & Amoritzation - - - - -
Less: Capital Expenditures (4,104) (6,377) (7,731) (7,909) (8,090)
Plus / Less: Changes in Net Working Capital (25,000) - - - -
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (89,190) 1,049 62,470 67,866 69,426
Implied Discount Rate 20.0% Undiscounted Discounted
FCF Multiple (Low) 1.5x 147,184 59,150
FCF Multiple (High) 2.5x 245,307 98,583
Net Present Value of Unlevered Free Cash Flow @ 20% 23,184
Implied Enterprise Value (Low) 82,334
Implied Enterprise Value (High) 121,767
Internal Rate of Return 28.1%
Stabilized Cash-on-Cash Yield @ $30K Investment 208.2%
Stabilized ANOP Yield @ $30K Investment 296.2%
MARKET / COMPETITIVE SET DETAILS
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
KEY OPPORTUNITIES
• Store has not yet transitioned to new menu, which implies incremental revenue
and flow-through opportunity
• Wings Over launched a new menu in corporate-operated stores in June 2020 and began
rolling out this menu to franchisees in August 2020
• Data from menu performance vs. previous state implies stronger combo mix; improved
sandwich/wrap mix; reduced variability in food COGS; and sustained alacarte side and drink
sales (implying that, even netting out COVID impact, new menu drove incremental sales)
• On a gross operating profit per transaction basis, new menu shown to provide significantly
stronger flow-through vs. old menu
KEY OPPORTUNITIES (CONT.)
• Store has not yet transitioned to corporate-standard tech suite, which
implies margin expansion opportunity
• Wings Over shifted loyalty providers to a direct ordering platform called Lunchbox in
February of 2020: Lunchbox operates both a mobile and web ordering platform
• Since Lunchbox launch, direct sales mix has increased to over 50% in some units, with
directly-proportional decreases in third-party mix
• Lunchbox will launch loyalty system across enterprise in July 2021, which will provide
further customer development and valuation opportunities.
KEY OPPORTUNITIES (CONT.)
• Store has made limited efforts to penetrate UT student population in ~11
months since opening, implying growth in stabilized revenue base
• Only one fall semester of operating history: store opened late enough into semester
to not take full advantage of football and basketball seasons (which traditionally drive
highest-revenue days of business)
• Store shuttered during COVID given tax advantages exclusive to master franchisor
rather than P&L performance
• Dedicated marketing funds and resources set on gaining market share across student
population is likely to be high-ROI and assist in revenue ramp / stabilization
KEY OPPORTUNITIES (CONT.)
• Store has not captured value from master franchisor infrastructure
expansions, all of which will be live post-acquisition
• Since December 2019, master franchisor has driven a number of corporate-level
initiatives re: revenue growth and margin expansion opportunities for franchisees
• Initiatives include manufacturer rebates; price audits on broadliner invoices; gift card
expansion and standardization; national-level marketing campaigns; loyalty rewards
program; and expansion of direct deals with manufacturers to arbitrage pricing
• Combination of initiatives above imply material improvement left in COGS and
operating expense margins
QUESTIONS?TYLER SHINE: [email protected]
DANIEL LEYVA: [email protected]