Window of Opportunity: demographic changes and socioeconomic consequences in Brazil
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Window of Opportunity: demographic changes and
socioeconomic consequences in Brazil
Bernardo L. [email protected]
IPC-IG – BrasiliaNovember / 2011
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Research is part of the National Transfer Accounts project
Co-authored with Cassio Turra from Cedeplar/UFMG
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National Transfer Account (NTA) Project
An international effort led by Professors Ronald Lee (University of California, Berkeley) and Andrew Mason (University of Hawaii) comprised of 35 national research teams (and over 130 researchers).
www.ntaccounts.org
Funded by:– US National Institute of Aging– John D. and Catherine T.
MacArthur Foundation– International Development
Research Center (supporting Latin American & African countries)
– The United Nations Population Fund
– Japan’s Academic Frontier Project and the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology.
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NTA Project
NTA Members Asia-Pacific Americas Europe Africa
Australia Argentina Austria Kenya
China Brazil Finland Mozambique
India Canada France Nigeria
Indonesia Chile Germany Senegal
Japan Colombia Hungary South Africa
Philippines Costa Rica Italy
South Korea Jamaica Slovenia
Taiwan Mexico Spain
Thailand Peru Sweden
Vietnam United States
Uruguay
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NTA Brazil(Cedeplar - UFMG)
Cássio M. Turra (Team leader)
Bernardo L. Queiroz
Izabel G. Marri (former Ph.D. student)
Elisenda R. Perez (former Ph.D. student)
http://sites.google.com/site/ntabrazil/
Brazil works closely with other Latin American countries and Mozambique.
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National Transfer Accounts (NTA)
• A “satellite account” of National Accounts which adds two new features:① Measurement of national economic activity by
age (based on survey and administrative data).
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Labor Income per Person in High and Middle Income Countries
From Tim Miller
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Relative Consumption per Person in High and Middle Income Countries
Education
Health
From Tim Miller
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National Transfer Accounts (NTA)
• A “satellite account” of National Accounts which adds two new features:① Measurement of national economic activity by
age.② Accounting of the intergenerational flow of
resources through social institutions (the state, the market, and the family). Family transfers (within and between households, intervivos and bequests) are quite large and are unmeasured in National Accounts.
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The life cycle pattern of consumption is supported by large intergenerational resource flows.
From Tim Miller
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Sources = Uses
Labor IncomeLabor Income
Asset IncomeAsset Income
Transfers from Government
Transfers from Government
Transfers from FamilyTransfers from Family
SavingsSavings
TaxesTaxes
Transfers to FamilyTransfers to Family
ConsumptionConsumption
NTA flow identity for each individual
InstitutionsFinancialMarkets
State
Family
From Tim Miller
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“We are inherently social, and are sustained not only by our own efforts, but also by transfers from those of others who support us directly or indirectly.” Ron Lee (Sept, 2011)
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New book and seminar
VIII NTA Workshop“Intergenerational
Approaches to Social and Economic Policy”
• Belo Horizonte, Dec 5-9• Rio de Janeiro, Dec 12 More info: www.ntaccounts.org
E-book available IDRC website (hard copy also available from Edward Elgar, Amazon, …)http://www.idrc.ca/EN/Resources/Publications/Pages/IDRCBookDetails.aspx?PublicationID=987
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Back to the main idea of the presentation
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Main Ideas• Not long ago, we worried about rapid population
growth and the high number of children in Third World populations;
• These days there are great concerns about the impact of rising numbers of elderly;
• Changes in population age structure interact with the economic life-cycle affecting income per capita growth;
• Two demographic dividends:– Increase in the share of working age population– Related to the creation of wealth that arises from
population aging.
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Main Objectives
• What is the size of the demographic dividends in Brazil?
• How long it will last and compare to other countries?
• How could public policies provide adequate conditions to the realization of the dividends?– Investigate public (fiscal) and private (familial)
dividends
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Motivation
• Brazil is unique for combining:– Rapid population aging: share of the population
65+ from 3% in 1970 to 20% in 2050;– Large public sector (as % of GDP): investments in
the elderly;• Investments in the public pension system started
before than the universalization of the educational system and are much larger;
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Demographic Transition in Brazil
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Public Expenditures in Brazil, 1933 to 2001
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Ratio Public Pension / Public EducationBrazil is still relatively young country, but…..
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Brazil USA Japan Sweden Finland Austria Spain Costa Rica Chile Uruguay
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Background• Dividends in Brazil are (somewhat) ignored by
policy-makers and still face a lot of debate in the academia:– Carvalho and Wong (1995): first to point out the
possible impacts of rapid demographic changes;– Turra and Rios-Neto (2001): fiscal gains of
demographic changes wouldn’t last long;– Rios-Neto (2004): estimated impact on income
growth; – Soares (2008): discussed and estimated the impacts
of population change on education outcomes.
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Estimating the First Dividend
Refers to the income growth due to the increase in the share of population that is of working age. That is, there are more potential producers that consumers in the economy.
It is measure by the ration between effective consumers and effective producers in the economyEffective Consumer: population weighted by
consumption age profileEffective Producer: population weighted by labor
income age profile
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Necessary Data
• 1) Labor and consumption age profiles: estimated in the NTA project;
• 2) Population age distribution: 1970 to 2050
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Population Age Structure
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Income and Consumption Profiles0 3 6 9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
51
54
57
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
0.00
1000.00
2000.00
3000.00
4000.00
5000.00
6000.00
7000.00
Labor Income and Consumption Profile, Brazil - 1996
Labor Income Consumption
Age
R$
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Income and Consumption Age Profiles, Brazil 2002-2003
0 2 4 6 81
01
21
41
61
82
02
22
42
62
83
03
23
43
63
84
04
24
44
64
85
05
25
45
65
86
06
26
46
66
87
07
27
47
67
88
08
28
48
68
89
09
29
49
69
81
00
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Income Health Cons. Education Cons. consump other
Age
Re
ais
(2
00
3)
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-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91
Nor
mal
ized
life
cyc
le d
efici
t
Age
Brazil
Comparing life cycle deficit across countries
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First Demographic Dividend
• The growth in the support ratio is the difference between the growth in the number of effective producers minus the growth in the number of effective producers. That is, the growth of the working age population;
• Given the labor productivity, an increase in the working age population increases the output per effective consumer
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Estimates of the First Dividend, B ICS
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
-1.000
-0.500
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
Brazil China India South Africa
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Duration of First Dividend
Industrial
East Asia and Southeast Asia
South Asia
Latin America
Sub-saharan Africa
Middle East and North Africa
Transitional
Pacific Islands
Brazil
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
29.7
46.6
60.7
47.9
49.7
52.3
33.6
48.6
50
Source: Mason (2005) and author´s calculation´s for Brazil data
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Public and Private Dividend
• Private Dividend: effect of increases in household support ratio. It takes into account beneficiaries of private inter-vivo transfers.
• Public Dividend (Fiscal): is given by changes in the ratio between effective tax payers and effective beneficiaries from public transfers.
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Public and Private Net Transfers
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-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 84 88
Age
pensions
health
education
other (non-age related)
Distribution of the public transfers in Brazil (as % of total consumption)
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Public and Private First Dividends
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Second Dividend• It is related to the creation of wealth that arises in
response to population aging.• With rising elderly population, consumption in the future
can only be maintained by accumulating capital or transfer wealth. Accumulation of wealth also influences economic growth.
• Elderly hold more wealth (composition effect), and living longer increases demand for wealth (behavioral effect).
• It is reflected by the rate of growth of productivity - increases in capital-labor ratio
• It is different from the first dividend because it is not temporary since capital deepening has permanent effect on income.
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Estimates of second dividend
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Estimated growth from dividend and observed, Brazil, 1970-2010
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Concluding remarks
• Population age structure in Brazil is changing rapidly.• Government, families, and individuals should be
prepared for the possible impacts (positive and negative).
• Paper shows that demographic changes might favor economic growth when appropriate policies and institutions are in place
• Results indicate that Brazil is failing to take advantage of the positive impacts of demographic dividend. First dividend is almost over. The first dividend was short because of the rapid decline in fertility.
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Concluding remarks (cont)
• The fiscal dividend will last a very short period of time.
• Giving current structure of public transfers in Brazil, the government will face an increasing fiscal expenditure, what might harm economic growth.
• Second dividend is also in check, because large public transfers might affect propensity to save since individuals expected to consume at older ages financed by public transfers here.
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NTA – new agenda
• 1) Inequality: studying transfers by socioeconomic status (education or income);
• 2) Gender (accounts by gender, studying hh headed by females, etc);
• 3) Including of time-use in the analysis;• 4) Simulation, backcasting, forecasting; • 5) Wealth, bequests;• 6) others.
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Shares of consumption not covered by labor income: Family Transfers, Public Transfers and Asset income (part not saved) sum to 1.0
Ron Lee, UC Berkeley, Sept 26 2011 43
AT
ES
SE
Europe & US
Latin America
Asia
1/3
1/3
1/3
2/3
2/3
2/3
Assets
Publictransfers
Familytransfers
TH
JP
KR
TW
PH
CL
MX
US
SI
BRDE
CR
CN
IN
HU
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Extra slidesfor questions about PBF, BPC and others
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Não, já que foram criados programas tanto para crianças quanto para idosos e seu volume é menor
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-800
1,600 2,400 3,200 4,000 4,800 5,600 6,400 7,200 8,000
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90+
USD
Age Groups
Quintile 1
Quintile 2
Quintile 3
Quintile 4
Quintile 5
Pensions (per capita)
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90+
USD
(100
,000
)
Age Groups
Quintile 1
Quintile 2
Quintile 3
Quintile 4
Quintile 5
Pensions (aggregate)
-0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90+
Rate
Age Groups
Pensions (utilization rate)
-800
1,600 2,400 3,200 4,000 4,800 5,600 6,400 7,200 8,000
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90+
USD
Age Groups
Pensions (payment per benef)
Previdência Social = alta concentração no último quintil, mas pouca variação na cobertura por SSE
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-50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90+
USD
Age Groups
Quintile 1
Quintile 2
Quintile 3
Quintile 4
Quintile 5
Education (per capita)
-5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90+
USD
(100
,000
)
Age Groups
Quintile 1
Quintile 2
Quintile 3
Quintile 4
Quintile 5
Education (aggregate)
-0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90+
Rate
Age Groups
Education (utilization rate)
-600
1,200 1,800 2,400 3,000 3,600 4,200 4,800 5,400 6,000 6,600
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90+
USD
Age Groups
Education (payment per beneficiary)
Educação Pública = pagamento por beneficiário favorece mais ricos, apesar de menor utilização
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-50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90+
USD
Age Groups
Quintile 1
Quintile 2
Quintile 3
Quintile 4
Quintile 5
Health (per capita)
-5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90+
USD
(100
,000
)
Age Groups
Quintile 1
Quintile 2
Quintile 3
Quintile 4
Quintile 5
Health (aggregate)
-0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90+
Rate
Age Groups
Health (utilization rate)
-600
1,200 1,800 2,400 3,000 3,600 4,200 4,800 5,400 6,000 6,600
0-4
10-1
4
20-2
4
30-3
4
40-4
4
50-5
4
60-6
4
70-7
4
80-8
4
90+
USD
Age Groups
Health (payment per beneficiary)
Saúde Pública = gastos per capita com menos ricos é maior, em função da maior taxa de utilização
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Lee and Mason September 19, 2011
Tradeoff between fertility and human capital spending, 23 NTA countries
0 1 2 3 4 5 60
1
2
3
4
5
6
KE
NGIN
ID
JP
PH
KR
TW
THBR
CL
CR MX
UY
ATFI
DE
HU
SL
ES
SE
US
CN
Total fertility rate
Hum
an c
apita
l spe
ndin
g pe
r ch
ild
Note: Human capital spending is years of labor income required for health and education to raise one child.