Wind Energy in Vermont: A Meteorologist’s Perspective
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Wind Energy in Vermont: A Meteorologist’s Perspective
NVDA Wind Study CommitteeBarton, VT
9/25/13
Dr. Jason ShaferAssociate Professor of Atmospheric Sciences
Lyndon State [email protected]
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Annual Wind Resource Climatology
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3http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/images/windmaps/us_windmap_80meters.jpg
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4http://www.windpoweringamerica.gov/images/windmaps/vt_80m.jpg
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5http://www.northeastwind.com/resources/wind-resource-maps
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6http://www.northeastwind.com/resources/wind-resource-maps
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7http://www.northeastwind.com/resources/wind-resource-maps
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8http://www.northeastwind.com/resources/wind-resource-maps
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Seasonal and Diurnal Climatology
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~15 Stations in the NEK10 with wind dataAll below 1400’ elevation
Newport
Island Pond
Lyndonville
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Burlington Newport Lyndonville Island Pond Mt. Washington0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
8.16.7
5.2 4.8
39.3
Average Annual Wind Speed (2012)Sp
eed
(MPH
)
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.052.0
50.2
45.8
39.7
32.931.3
29.4
27.3
32.4
39.4
45.9
51.0
Mt. Washington, NH: Average Monthly Wind Speed (1982-2011)
MPH
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Winter Spring Summer Fall4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
6.96
7.57
5.89
6.23
Newport, VT (KEFK), 2012 Average Seasonal Wind W
ind
Spee
d (M
PH)
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1:00 AM
3:00 AM
5:00 AM
7:00 AM
9:00 AM
11:00 AM
1:00 PM
3:00 PM
5:00 PM
7:00 PM
9:00 PM
11:00 PM4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
Newport, VT (KEFK), Avg 2012 Diurnal Wind SpeedSp
eed
(MPH
)
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Wind Rose climatology for Lyndonville, VT
Source: AWS True Wind
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Carrera et al. 2009
Similar to Lyndonville, the two dominant wind directions are from the south and northwest.
Burlington, VT Wind Direction Frequency
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Localized Effects
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Wind Energy Production
312e pP C V AV
Wind energy production is very sensitive to small changes in wind speed, to the cube of the wind speed.
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IPCC 2012
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Fig. 2. Hourly vertical profiles of horizontal wind speed from HRD conical scans showing evening development of the LLJ near Lamar, CO, on 15 Sep 2003. Wind speed (m s−1) on horizontal axis, and height (m) on vertical axis. Profiles are color coded by time (UTC), which is 7 h ahead of local (mountain) standard time, so that 0100 UTC about sunset and 0700 UTC is midnight. Vertical resolution is 5 m. Turbine-rotor layer is indicated by horizontal dotted lines. (Figure courtesy of the American Meteorological Society.) Banta et al. 2013
One of the biggest challenges for producing accurate projections of wind resourcesis the assumptions made with the vertical profile with height in the lowest layer ofthe atmosphere; depends on the local terrain features and land-surface environment.
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This is an example of a localized terrain effect, with the wind flow accelerating through Willoughby Gap; these nuances are impossible to know without collecting data.
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Burlington
Newport
Lyndonville
Island Pond
Mt. Washington
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
29.3
17.4
13.6
9.7
91.2
Percentage of Time Wind Speed Greater Than or Equal to 10 knots (11.4 MPH) (Data from 2012)
Percent (%)
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Climate Change and Local Wind Resources
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Cold Season Jet Stream Climatology
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Barnes and Polvani, 2013
Literature supports a shift of the midlatitude jet stream north, in this papershowing the largest migration of the Atlantic jet in Fall and least in Winter.
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19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
201025.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
Mt. Washington, NH Average Annual Wind Speed (1970-2011)W
ind
Spee
d (M
PH)
Average: 39.5 MPHData courtesy Mt. Washington Observatory and Plymouth State University
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19701971
19721973
19741975
19761977
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
-6.3%
-3.1%-2.6%-2.9%
2.7%
-3.2%
5.6%
-0.2%
-2.3%
-12.4%
3.9%
0.0%
6.6%
0.4%
-2.4%
9.2%
6.2%
4.3%
11.8%
5.0%
9.3%
5.3%
-3.4%-2.5%
9.8%
-3.6%
-2.0%
12.1%
-10.0%-9.6%
-12.3%-13.0%
1.9%
-0.7%-0.1%
-9.5%
4.3%
10.6%
-1.4%
-3.4%-4.5%
2.1%
Mt. Washingon Yearly Wind Speed Variability (1970-2011)
Average: 5%
Data courtesy Mt. Washington Observatory and Plymouth State University
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Climate Change and Wind Resources
• Observations: – We don’t know the answer, developing field, Global
Climate Models need to be downscaled for this application
– There will probably be some seasonal shift to wind resources
– Year-to-year variability is larger than the long-term climate signal
– There do not appear to be any long-term changes atop Mt. Washington
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References• Banta, Robert M., Yelena L. Pichugina, Neil D. Kelley, R. Michael Hardesty, W. Alan Brewer, 2013: Wind
Energy Meteorology: Insight into Wind Properties in the Turbine-Rotor Layer of the Atmosphere from High-Resolution Doppler Lidar. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 883–902.
• Barnes, Elizabeth A. and Lorenzo Polvani, 2013: Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models. J. Climate, 26, 7117-7135.
• Carrera, Marco L., John R. Gyakum, Charles A. Lin, 2009: Observational Study of Wind Channeling within the St. Lawrence River Valley. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, 2341–2361.
• DOE, 2013: Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather: http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/07/f2/20130716-Energy%20Sector%20Vulnerabilities%20Report.pdf
• IPCC, 2012: Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Special Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press. 1088 p. Available: www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/srren/SRREN_Full_Report.pdf
• NOAA ESRL Web Plotting Analysis Tools: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl