Wilmington Air Quality Study Modeling for Neighborhood Assessment Todd Sax Vlad Isakov September 12,...

Wilmington Air Quality StudyWilmington Air Quality Study

Modeling for Neighborhood AssessmentModeling for Neighborhood Assessment

Todd SaxTodd Sax

Vlad IsakovVlad Isakov

September 12, 2002September 12, 2002

California Air Resources Board

Neighborhood AssessmentNeighborhood Assessment

• Program ObjectiveProgram Objective

– ““Develop source-receptor based, cumulative impact/risk Develop source-receptor based, cumulative impact/risk assessment methodologies suitable for evaluating neighborhood-assessment methodologies suitable for evaluating neighborhood-scale air pollution impacts and for comparing neighborhood scale air pollution impacts and for comparing neighborhood exposures within a region” exposures within a region” (NAP Work Plan)(NAP Work Plan)

– Develop tools for evaluating local scale impacts and targeting risk Develop tools for evaluating local scale impacts and targeting risk reduction strategiesreduction strategies

September 12, 2002 California Air Resources Board

WilmingtonWilmington

• Identified by MATES-II as one of the most Identified by MATES-II as one of the most impacted areas of the Los Angeles regionimpacted areas of the Los Angeles region

September 12, 2002 (source: MATES-II, pg. ES-12)

• Located nearLocated near– FreewaysFreeways– RefineriesRefineries– PortsPorts– Local TrafficLocal Traffic– ManufacturingManufacturing– Local FacilitiesLocal Facilities

Wilmington

MATES-II Health Risk

90731

9082290802

90813

90745

90710

90810

Wilmington

Wilmington Study DomainWilmington Study Domain


Wilmington Air Quality StudyWilmington Air Quality Study

• Project ObjectivesProject Objectives– Improve assessment methodologiesImprove assessment methodologies– Evaluate model resultsEvaluate model results– Develop recommendations for policy developmentDevelop recommendations for policy development– Communicate results and risks to the publicCommunicate results and risks to the public

• Project ComponentsProject Components– Emissions InventoryEmissions Inventory– Dispersion ModelingDispersion Modeling– Model EvaluationModel Evaluation– Health Risk AssessmentHealth Risk Assessment– Exposure AssessmentExposure Assessment


Emissions

Point SourcesIndustrial• Metal platers• Refineries• Manufacturing Facilities• Other sources: Cr6+, DPM

Commercial• Gas stations• Dry cleaners• Autobody shops• Warehouses• Industrial diesel• Welding facilities

On-Road Sources• Link-based inventory• Evaluate with vehicle counts

Off-Road Sources• Marine - Port, ARB• Dockside - Port, ARB• Railroads - ARB, Port

Exposure

Microscale Modeling• ISCST3• AERMOD• CALINE4

Regional Modeling• CALGRID and/or CMAQ

Health Risk

Modeling Results• Inhalation health risk calculation• Multi-media health risk calculation• Health risk assessment

Model Evaluation

Tracer Studies• June 2003• Powerplant elevated release

Toxics Monitoring• Multiple sites, June 2003• Focus on diesel particulate• Coordination with POLA

Uncertainty Assessment• Focus on diesel and Cr6+• Estimate range of pollutant concentrations possible using Monte Carlo techniques

Wilmington Neighborhood Assessment - Conceptual PlanWilmington Neighborhood Assessment - Conceptual Plan

Inventory Analysis• Focus on diesel and Cr6+ • Examine by source and release point• Estimate range of possible emissions using Monte Carlo techniques• Compile by release location

Emissions InventoryEmissions Inventory

• Goal: comprehensive emissions inventoryGoal: comprehensive emissions inventory– Industrial and Commercial FacilitiesIndustrial and Commercial Facilities

• Comparing multiple inventory sources (Federal, State, Local)Comparing multiple inventory sources (Federal, State, Local)• Conducting on-site surveys of large and small facilitiesConducting on-site surveys of large and small facilities

– On-Road Mobile SourcesOn-Road Mobile Sources• Building link-based inventory using SCAG light and heavy duty travel demand modelsBuilding link-based inventory using SCAG light and heavy duty travel demand models

– Off-Road Mobile SourcesOff-Road Mobile Sources• Supplementing off-road inventories with facility-specific emissions identified by surveySupplementing off-road inventories with facility-specific emissions identified by survey• Working with Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in inventory development for sources of diesel Working with Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in inventory development for sources of diesel

PMPM• Integrating spatially allocated off-road emissions from multiple sourcesIntegrating spatially allocated off-road emissions from multiple sources


• Over 2500 businesses in Over 2500 businesses in modeling domainmodeling domain

• 195 facilities in CEIDARS195 facilities in CEIDARS• Multiple inventory Multiple inventory

databasesdatabases• 240 facilities surveyed, 240 facilities surveyed,

~50% have emissions ~50% have emissions • More surveys planned More surveys planned

Emissions Inventory - FacilitiesEmissions Inventory - Facilities

• 195 facilities in CEIDARS195 facilities in CEIDARS• Corrected geo-locationsCorrected geo-locations• Integration with existing Integration with existing

HRAsHRAs• Improved release locations Improved release locations

and parameters and parameters • Sampled for data quality Sampled for data quality

evaluationevaluation


• Integrating inventory Integrating inventory with GIS platformwith GIS platform

• 1 km or 100m grid 1 km or 100m grid cellscells

• Drill-in capability on Drill-in capability on selected sourcesselected sources


Emissions Inventory - On-Road SourcesEmissions Inventory - On-Road Sources

Wilmington Road Links, SCAG ModelsWilmington Road Links, SCAG Models

Air Quality ModelingAir Quality Modeling• GoalGoal

– Develop and evaluate methodologies to estimate annual average concentrations of pollutants released from multiple sources on a neighborhood scale

• Micro-scale modelingMicro-scale modeling– Focus on air toxics with defined unit risk factors or reference exposure levels and particulateFocus on air toxics with defined unit risk factors or reference exposure levels and particulate– ISCST3, AERMOD, CALINEISCST3, AERMOD, CALINE

• Regional modelingRegional modeling– Focus on southern CaliforniaFocus on southern California– 30 toxic pollutants30 toxic pollutants– Photochemical models (e.g. CMAQ and/or CALGRID)Photochemical models (e.g. CMAQ and/or CALGRID)


WIND ROSE PLOT

Station #23129 - Long Beach, 1964 (Aug.-Sept. - daytime)

NORTH

SOUTH

WEST EAST

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Wind Speed (Knots)

> 10

7 - 10

4 - 6

1 - 3

PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME

1964 Check Date Range Report9 AM - 7 PM

DATE

2/14/2002

DISPLAY

Wind Speed

UNIT

Knots

CALM WINDS

2.27%

AVG. WIND SPEED

8.61 Knots

COMMENTS

ORIENTATION

Direction(blowing from)

WRPLOT View 3.5 by Lakes Environmental Software - www.lakes-environmental.com

WIND ROSE PLOT

Station #23129 - Long Beach, 1964 (Aug.-Sept. - night-time)

NORTH

SOUTH

WEST EAST

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

Wind Speed (Knots)

> 10

7 - 10

4 - 6

1 - 3

PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME

1964 Check Date Range ReportMidnight - 8 AM

DATE

2/14/2002

DISPLAY

Wind Speed

UNIT

Knots

CALM WINDS

30.00%

AVG. WIND SPEED

5.08 Knots

COMMENTS

ORIENTATION



WIND ROSE PLOT

Station #23129 - Long Beach, 1964 (summer: Aug.-Sept.)

NORTH

SOUTH

WEST EAST

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Wind Speed (Knots)

> 10

7 - 10

4 - 6

1 - 3

PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME

1964 Check Date Range ReportMidnight - 11 PM

DATE

2/14/2002

DISPLAY

Wind Speed

UNIT

Knots

CALM WINDS

14.86%

AVG. WIND SPEED

6.98 Knots

COMMENTS

ORIENTATION



Long Beach, Aug./Sept. Summer - night-timeSummer - daytime


Wilmington Wind PatternsWilmington Wind Patterns

• Typical coastal wind patternsTypical coastal wind patterns• Daytime southerly and westerly flowDaytime southerly and westerly flow

Model Evaluation - OverviewModel Evaluation - Overview


• Assess accuracy of model resultsAssess accuracy of model results– Tracer studiesTracer studies

• Received new contract between ARB, CEC, UCR to conduct a tracer release from an Received new contract between ARB, CEC, UCR to conduct a tracer release from an elevated stack in Wilmingtonelevated stack in Wilmington

• Use existing tracer data to evaluate model performance and improve model algorithmsUse existing tracer data to evaluate model performance and improve model algorithms

– Supplemental monitoringSupplemental monitoring• Focus on diesel particulate, but there is currently no acceptable method for measurementFocus on diesel particulate, but there is currently no acceptable method for measurement

– Uncertainty analysisUncertainty analysis• Assess uncertainty for a subset of facilities in the modeling domain: Diesel PM (DPM) and Assess uncertainty for a subset of facilities in the modeling domain: Diesel PM (DPM) and

Hexavalent Chromium (CrVI) emissionsHexavalent Chromium (CrVI) emissions

Model Evaluation - Tracer StudyModel Evaluation - Tracer Study


• Model performance evaluation - ensure model predictions are reliableModel performance evaluation - ensure model predictions are reliable– Develop database of tracer concentrationsDevelop database of tracer concentrations– Extend existing tracer databaseExtend existing tracer database

• Wilmington - elevated release (stack)Wilmington - elevated release (stack)– Improve dispersion algorithm Improve dispersion algorithm

• urban boundary layer conditionsurban boundary layer conditions• large vertical gradients in wind speed and turbulence are presentlarge vertical gradients in wind speed and turbulence are present

– Goal: improve model algorithms, incorporate into dispersion models (such as Goal: improve model algorithms, incorporate into dispersion models (such as AERMOD)AERMOD)

• Site: not yet chosen. Date: June 2003.Site: not yet chosen. Date: June 2003.

TRACER EXPERIMENTS IN WILMINGTONTRACER EXPERIMENTS IN WILMINGTON

Figure 1: The growth of the nocturnal thermal urban boundary layer (TIBL)

Stable boundary layer

Urban boundary layer

Tracer Study - Dispersion ExampleTracer Study - Dispersion Example

Model Evaluation - Toxics MonitoringModel Evaluation - Toxics Monitoring


• Diesel PM is major inhalation risk in WilmingtonDiesel PM is major inhalation risk in Wilmington– No accepted methodology for measuring DPMNo accepted methodology for measuring DPM– Elemental carbon as a surrogate does not work well in all casesElemental carbon as a surrogate does not work well in all cases– Major CMB studies provide conflicting resultsMajor CMB studies provide conflicting results

• Likely Approach - CMB Analysis with Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Likely Approach - CMB Analysis with Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon measurementmeasurement– Multiple sites over several weeks, June 2003.Multiple sites over several weeks, June 2003.– Measure PM 2.5, OC/EC, SVOC PAH, elementsMeasure PM 2.5, OC/EC, SVOC PAH, elements– Evaluate differences between sites, between days, and correlation between pollutantsEvaluate differences between sites, between days, and correlation between pollutants– Looking for additional funding to expand studyLooking for additional funding to expand study

Model Evaluation - Uncertainty AnalysisModel Evaluation - Uncertainty Analysis• Provide context to estimated pollutant concentrations - evaluate assumptionsProvide context to estimated pollutant concentrations - evaluate assumptions

– Uncertainty sources: emissions, spatial allocation of emissions, model options and Uncertainty sources: emissions, spatial allocation of emissions, model options and release parameters, conceptual uncertainty in model physicsrelease parameters, conceptual uncertainty in model physics

– ApproachApproach• Focus on selected sources: CrVI and DPMFocus on selected sources: CrVI and DPM• Evaluate range of possible emissions from each source through survey, databases, analysis of Evaluate range of possible emissions from each source through survey, databases, analysis of

emission factorsemission factors• Determine specific conditions of each emission releaseDetermine specific conditions of each emission release• Estimate range of inter-annual variability in meteorologyEstimate range of inter-annual variability in meteorology• Assess range of acceptable model options and conduct sensitivity analysisAssess range of acceptable model options and conduct sensitivity analysis• Use Monte Carlo statistical techniques to estimate confidence limits in modeling resultsUse Monte Carlo statistical techniques to estimate confidence limits in modeling results

Health Risk AssessmentHealth Risk Assessment• Evaluate inhalation health risk Evaluate inhalation health risk

• Investigate alternative assessment methodsInvestigate alternative assessment methods– Goal: Provide perspective to inhalation health riskGoal: Provide perspective to inhalation health risk– Some pollutants have important multipathway componentSome pollutants have important multipathway component

• Estimate differences in predicted health risks through evaluating multipathway contributions for selected Estimate differences in predicted health risks through evaluating multipathway contributions for selected pollutantspollutants

– True inhalation exposure is a function of the amount of pollutant people breathe. True inhalation exposure is a function of the amount of pollutant people breathe. • People spend time in microenvironmentsPeople spend time in microenvironments• Microenvironmental pollutant concentrations may be different than outdoor, ambient concentrationsMicroenvironmental pollutant concentrations may be different than outdoor, ambient concentrations• May be possible to use existing data and models to compare ambient exposure to total exposure for May be possible to use existing data and models to compare ambient exposure to total exposure for

selected pollutantsselected pollutants


Expected ConclusionsExpected Conclusions


• Answer relevant policy questionsAnswer relevant policy questions– Which inventory sources are most important?Which inventory sources are most important?– Do commercial facilities impact cumulative risk? If so which ones?Do commercial facilities impact cumulative risk? If so which ones?– Can on-road emissions be accurately allocated to individual streets? If not, what can be Can on-road emissions be accurately allocated to individual streets? If not, what can be

done?done?– Which models are most appropriate for neighborhood assessment? Do approaches vary by Which models are most appropriate for neighborhood assessment? Do approaches vary by

pollutant?pollutant?– How should models be improved?How should models be improved?– How reliable are modeling results?How reliable are modeling results?– What is the impact of exposure to ambient air pollution relative to estimated personal What is the impact of exposure to ambient air pollution relative to estimated personal

exposure?exposure?

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