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Transcript of William Webb - Wireless Communications - The Future - Note That This is William Webbs Personal...
©Ofcom
Wireless Communications:
The Future
Professor William Webb
©Ofcom 1
Contents
• Some history
• The basis for prediction
• The prediction
©Ofcom 2
Predictions made in 2000 for 2005 proved accurate• We predicted that
not much would happen, and not much did!
• But the time has come for a “refresh” to take new developments into account and broaden the contributor base
©Ofcom 3
Contents
• Some history
• The basis for prediction
• The prediction
©Ofcom 4
A hard look at the current industry position
• There will not be a new “4th generation” of cellular since 3G reaches the limits of what is possible in a radio channel
• Fixed wireless access will not succeed – even with the advent of WiMax technology
• W-LAN in the home will provide the basis for convergence between home and cellular systems
• The current vertically integrated approach where operators own networks and provide customer facing services is not sustainable in the long term– but will persist for many years and in doing so will slow convergence.
©Ofcom 5
An understanding of adoption rates
• Services take between five and ten years to be adopted even if the service is “perfect”
• Spending on communications can only grow slowly.
©Ofcom 6
Moore’s Law
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
100000000
1000000000
10000000000
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
Num
ber o
f tra
nsis
tors
8086
Double every 18 months Itanium
Pentium486
386286 Double every 24
months
A note of caution – Moore’s Law does not directly provide more wireless capacity and powerrequirements increase with the number of transistors but batteries don’t improve that fast
©Ofcom 7
Cooper’s Law – wireless voice traffic doubles every 30 months
Gains 1950 – 2000
• 15 times by using more spectrum (3 GHz vs. 150 MHz)
• 5 times from better voice coding• 5 times from better MAC and
modulation methods• 2,700 times from smaller cells
• Total gain 1million-fold
1100
10,0001,000,000
100,000,00010,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000
100,000,000,000,000
10,000,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000,000
100,000,000,000,000,000,000
10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year
Cellular Era
Incr
ease
in E
ffici
ency
of W
irele
ss S
pect
rum
Spatial Processing Era
Logarithmic Scale
1
100
10,000
1 Million
100 Million
10 Billion
1 Trillion
100 Trillion
10,000 Trillion
1 Million Trillion
10 Billion Trillion
Cooper’s Law
Source: Arraycom
©Ofcom 8
2G
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000
10m
100m
1km
10km
ZigBee802.15.4 Bluetooth
802.15.1
UWB802.15.3
Wi-Fi802.11
3G
WiMax / HSDPA
Technologies and where they take us
Data rate (Mbits/s)
Range (km
)
Physics, economics andspectrum allocationmake entry into this
space difficult
ADSLrate
Source: Webb
©Ofcom 9
Contents
• Some history
• The basis for prediction
• The prediction
©Ofcom 10
A prediction of some possible new services
VideoDownload and view video
anywhere on any device, make video calls
LocationA range of appropriate services
Interwork devicesSynchronise devices and allow one to make use of resources in another nearby (eg large screen)
EnvironmentMonitor and control home and
local environment
Personal applicationsA wide range of specialist
applications such as a meal-suggestion service
Transport Route guidance, travel
information, payment, etc
©Ofcom 11
The winners and losers
Winners• Handsets. These will become ever more advanced. As
a result they will be higher price, sold in large volumes and changed frequently.
• Home networks. These will require substantial memory and processing power and multiple means of interconnection.
• Contextually aware software. This will provide the intelligence to allow handsets to predict user requirements.
• Network software providing convergence. Complex software will be needed in the network to ensure that the user is kept connected in the best manner possible.
• User applications. We expect there to be many valuable applications written for wireless networks.
• Service provisioning. Service providers will enables multiple different communications channels and generally keeps a users communications environment “working”.
Losers• SDR. We believe that multi-modal
phones will be cheaper and just as effective.
• Cognitive radio. We note a number of difficulties and cannot see any convincing application.
• Smart or MIMO antennas. As cells get smaller, the benefits of these fall while the cost per user increases.
• Fixed wireless access. We believe wired technologies will continue to be cheaper and offer higher data rates in all but a few niche applications.
• 4G. We do not see the need for a completely new generation, nor the “space” where it will provide distinct advantages.
©Ofcom 12
Services will gradually evolve, becoming fully available between 2015 and 2020
2005 2010 2015 2020
Offices and homes deploy W-LAN
systems
Communicators become multi-modal
Personalisation, reformatting and message filtering
Home appliances add wireless
Broadband connections to the home proliferate
Speech recognition and other user
interface advances
“Remote control on life”available to wealthy in developed countries
“Remote control on life”widely available in
developed countries
Handset manages daily life
Mobile TV and intelligent PVRs assemble viewing
©Ofcom 13
In conclusion
• The user experience based on wireless communications is likely to change dramatically over the next 10 – 20 years as the handset becomes a “remote control on life”
• This will not require much change in technology, although mesh networks, UWB, better user interfaces and enhanced backhaul will all help
• Services will grow rapidly on the back of increasingly ubiquitous and standardised wireless connectivity
• A flexible spectrum allocation policy will allow networks to grow in reaction to the new services and for new technologies to be rapidly deployed