William Hurley, CFA Senior Equity Analyst
description
Transcript of William Hurley, CFA Senior Equity Analyst
© 2009 Northern Trust Corporation northerntrust.com
FALL FOCUS
2009
INVESTMENT CONFERENCE
William Hurley, CFASenior Equity Analyst
Utilities SectorRegulated and Integrated Electric UtilitiesGas Pipelines and Gas Utilities
2 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference
Utilities Sector Performance
Utilities have outperformed the broad index on a 3-year basis.
Indexed Total Return(1 Year and 3 Years)
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110%
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S&P 500 Utilities S&P 500
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9/29
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S&P 500 Utilities S&P 500
3 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference
Regulated Utilities Performance
The regulated utilities outperform in the first half of a recession.
Indexed Total Return(1 Year and 3 Years)
50%
60%
70%
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90%
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110%
12/3
1/07
1/31
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S&P 500 Regulated Utes
50%
60%
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90%
100%
110%
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1/08
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0/08
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S&P 500 Regulated Utes
4 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference
Regulated Utilities Dividend Yield
The regulated utilities historically have yielded 80 basis points less than the 10-year Treasury. Right now, at 5.9%, they yield 260 basis points more.
10-Year Treasury Yield Versus Regulated Average Dividend Yield
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10%19
89
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US 10Y Ave. Reg. Ute
5 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference
Integrated Utilities and Natural Gas Prices
The integrated utilities have been roughly correlated with natural gas prices.
Indexed Total Return(3 Years)
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-09
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Jul-0
9M
ay-0
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pr-0
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ay-0
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pr-0
8Fe
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ov-0
7O
ct-0
7S
ep-0
7Ju
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Jun-
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ay-0
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ar-0
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b-07
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0%
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160%Natural Gas (Rt. Axis) S&P 500 Integrated Utes
6 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference
Regulated Electric Utilities PG&E (PCG) – 1/A
Southern (SO) – 2/A Duke (DUK) – 2/B
Regulated Gas / Pipeline Spectra (SE) – 1/B
Integrated Utilities Entergy (ETR) – 1/B Exelon (EXC) – 1/A FPL (FPL) – 1/A Dominion (D) – 2/B
Utilities Coverage and Themes
Coverage Dividend Yield
PCG; SO
Renewables FPL; PCG
Transmission PCG?; EXC? (Watch for note soon.)
Natural Gas Prices EXC; ETR; D; FPL
Carbon Legislation EXC; ETR; FPL; D
Natural Gas Infrastructure SE
Examples of Themes, Ordered by Exposure or Preference
© 2009 Northern Trust Corporation northerntrust.com
FALL FOCUS
2009
INVESTMENT CONFERENCE
William Hurley, CFASenior Equity Analyst
Alternative EnergySolar
8 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference
Solar and Crude
The solar companies are less correlated with crude, as it should be.
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0%
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120%Crude FSLR SPWRA
9 2009 Fall FOCUS Investment Conference
Chinese Solar Versus First Solar
The Chinese companies have run on lower polysilicon prices; operating leverage.
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Index of Chinese Solar Cos. First Solar
© 2009 Northern Trust Corporation northerntrust.com
FALL FOCUS
2009
INVESTMENT CONFERENCE
William Hurley, CFASenior Equity Analyst
Thank you.