Will the world really come to an end year2012

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Breakthrough Vol. 14. No. 2. November 2009 4 For the past one year or so, a news item has repeatedly appeared in the electronic and print media: Some soothsayers have found out that the doomsday is near. The world will be destroyed in the year 2012. Even the date seems to be known: 21 December. A video CD has been in circulation, showing what will happen on that fateful day; even a “2012 survival guide” is in the market. What made them conclude that the end was near? How did they know that it would happen in the specific year 2012? What the proponents of the doomsday are telling us is something strange. Archeologists have discovered a calendar in the remains of the ancient Maya civilization of the South America. That calendar ends on the 21 st of December, 2012. Apparently the creators of that calendar did not proceed beyond that date. Why didn’t they? Simple answer: They knew that the world would not exist beyond that date. It is thus meaningless to keep track of dates, months and years after that day. But what exactly will happen on 21 st December 2012, which will destroy the whole world? On this issue, however, we see different eventualities. Some are saying that a large asteroid is now heading towards us, and on that very date it will impact with the Earth. Some are saying that the magnetic field of the Earth will reverse that day; what is now the North Pole will become the South Year 2012: Will the World Really Come to an End? Soumitro Banerjee Pole, and the magnetic South Pole will go close to the geographic North Pole. That will destroy human civilization. Some others are saying that it is not a case of asteroid or magnetic pole: the very rotation of the Earth will change. Our planet rotates around its own axis as it revolves round the sun. That axis of rotation itself will change, and as a result India, which now has a temperate climate, may suddenly find itself situated on the North Pole. Cold regions may move closer to the equator. This will cause a very large scale climatic change. Still others are saying there will be a gigantic volcanic eruption; or, that there will be a super-earthquake. But all these foretellers are unanimous in saying that whatever happens will happen on 21 st December 2012, because there is no date after this in the ancient Maya calendar!! However fictitious such possibilities may seem, their repeated appearance in the media seems to be making an impact on the lay people. It is creating a fear-psychosis among them. The impending catastrophe is becoming a point of discussion and speculation among school-children. Many are losing their interest in learning (what is the point in learning if we are to die soon?). In such a situation, the Hollywood film- makers are seeing a great business opportunity. We know their penchant for capitalizing on peoples’ inner sense of insecurity and fear; recall how they made more than a hundred films on a single theme: the attack of aliens from Mars, and earned billions of dollars. It can be expected that a few films will soon appear in the * Dr. Banerjee is the General Secretary of the Break- through Science Society, and a Professor at the Indian Institute of Science Education & Research, Kolkata.

description

I would like to request my friends, colleagues and seniors to please find some time and go through this article. I am the member of the Breakthrough Science Society and this article was published in their forum.

Transcript of Will the world really come to an end year2012

Page 1: Will the world really come to an end year2012

Breakthrough Vol. 14. No. 2. November 20094

For the past one year or so, a news itemhas repeatedly appeared in the electronicand print media: Some soothsayers havefound out that the doomsday is near. Theworld will be destroyed in the year 2012.Even the date seems to be known: 21December. A video CD has been incirculation, showing what will happen onthat fateful day; even a “2012 survival guide”is in the market.

What made them conclude that the endwas near? How did they know that it wouldhappen in the specific year 2012? What theproponents of the doomsday are telling usis something strange. Archeologists havediscovered a calendar in the remains of theancient Maya civilization of the SouthAmerica. That calendar ends on the 21st ofDecember, 2012. Apparently the creatorsof that calendar did not proceed beyond thatdate. Why didn’t they? Simple answer: Theyknew that the world would not exist beyondthat date. It is thus meaningless to keeptrack of dates, months and years afterthat day.

But what exactly will happen on 21st

December 2012, which will destroy the wholeworld? On this issue, however, we seedifferent eventualities. Some are saying thata large asteroid is now heading towards us,and on that very date it will impact with theEarth. Some are saying that the magneticfield of the Earth will reverse that day; whatis now the North Pole will become the South

Year 2012:Will the World Really Come to an End?

Soumitro Banerjee

Pole, and the magnetic South Pole will goclose to the geographic North Pole. That willdestroy human civilization. Some others aresaying that it is not a case of asteroid ormagnetic pole: the very rotation of the Earthwill change. Our planet rotates around itsown axis as it revolves round the sun. Thataxis of rotation itself will change, and as aresult India, which now has a temperateclimate, may suddenly find itself situated onthe North Pole. Cold regions may move closerto the equator. This will cause a very largescale climatic change. Still others are sayingthere will be a gigantic volcanic eruption;or, that there will be a super-earthquake.But all these foretellers are unanimous insaying that whatever happens will happenon 21st December 2012, because there is nodate after this in the ancient Maya calendar!!

However fictitious such possibilities mayseem, their repeated appearance in themedia seems to be making an impact on thelay people. It is creating a fear-psychosisamong them. The impending catastrophe isbecoming a point of discussion andspeculation among school-children. Manyare losing their interest in learning (what isthe point in learning if we are to die soon?).In such a situation, the Hollywood film-makers are seeing a great businessopportunity. We know their penchant forcapitalizing on peoples’ inner sense ofinsecurity and fear; recall how they mademore than a hundred films on a singletheme: the attack of aliens from Mars, andearned billions of dollars. It can be expectedthat a few films will soon appear in the

* Dr. Banerjee is the General Secretary of the Break-through Science Society, and a Professor at the IndianInstitute of Science Education & Research, Kolkata.

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market, capitalizing on people’s fantasy andfear of the events of the year 2012. That willfurther fuel the fear psychosis.

In this situation it has become necessaryto present a scientific dissection of thearguments forwarded by the doomsdaytheorists. That is the purpose of the presentarticle.

On the Maya civilization and itscalendar

A long time ago, in the Old Stone Age, afew groups of mongoloid tribes of Asiacrossed the Bering Strait and reachedAlaska. With time they spread over the wholeof the two American continents. Initially theywere hunter-cum-gatherers. When theyreached Mexico and Central America, someof them invented agriculture in the fertileland they found there. With land suitablefor cultivation, they created a settledagrarian culture, which in course of timeled to urban life around the capitals of thekingdoms. Inca, Maya, and Azteccivilizations developed in this manner atdifferent times, and in different parts ofCentral and South America.

Among them, the Mayacivilization seems to haveadvanced the most, as evidencedby the small pyramid-typestructures, temples, utensils,artwork, etc., that thearchaeologists have found. Theseevidences indicated that the Mayacivilization advanced the most inthe period from the 7th to the 9th

century AD. They had a writtenlanguage and had well developedtraditions in art. But they werefar behind the contemporarycivilizations in China (the Tangdynasty), India (the Pala dynasty),or Europe (the Charlemagne rule).

Theirs was a societydominated by the priests.

Human-sacrifice was common at the timeof sowing the seeds (in the hope of getting abetter yield by pleasing the gods). They hadnot discovered the extraction and use of iron;so they were still in the bronze-age. TheIndus-valley civilization and the Egyptiancivilization are two thousand years olderthan the Maya civilization. The Greekcivilization, the Chinese and Roman empires,the time of Buddha and Ashoka in India –these are also more than a thousand yearsolder than the Mayans. So it can be saidthat when civilizations in the other parts ofthe world had advanced significantly, theMayans remained far behind, which theycould not overcome through exchangebecause of the geographic isolation.

But wherever a civilization had engagedin agriculture, it had to solve one practicalproblem: At what time of the year shouldseeds be sown? For this, it is necessary tospecify a definite time each for every cropround the year; that is, one needs a calendar.That is why all agricultural societies had toinvent some kind of time-keeping systemwithin the year. In order to measure time,one needs a unit of measurement –something that happens cyclically in the

Fig. 1 : The map of the area of Maya Civilization

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same interval.We can easilyidentify threesuch cyclicalevents whichcould serve thepurpose: 1) therotation of theEarth aroundthe sun, 2) therotation of theEarth around itsown axis, and 3)The rotation ofthe moon

around the Earth. If these times weremultiples of one another, there would be noproblem. One could simply call one the day,another month, and the third the year. Butactually this does not happen. The durationof the day times a whole number does notgive the year; the time in a year divided bythe time in a month does not give a wholenumber either. That is why the solar yeardoes not contain a whole number of moon-months, nor does it contain a whole numberof days (a year = 365.242199 days). That iswhy making a calendar is not a trivial affair.

The thinkers of different societies triedto solve the problem in different ways. TheEnglish calendar (called the Gregoriancalendar) has 365 days in a year, and theremaining part is accounted for by adding aday once every four years (the leap-years).That also does not complete the story;another correction becomes necessary onceevery 400 years. The Indian calendar hasbecome very complicated because it tries tocombine the solar year with the moon-month. As a result, every year the calendaris different, religious events happen atdifferent times in different years, and thedates of events given by different calendar-makers often do not match.

The Mayans also tried to solve theproblem in their own ways. In the Mayasociety it was the priests’ job to fix the datesof various activities. In doing so, the

priesthood had to devote a great deal ofthought to calendar-making, and proposedtwo different types of calendars. In one, theyear had 260 days, and in the other it had365 days. The first one, based on the averagehuman gestation period, was used mainlyin religious events while the second one,based on the solar cycle, was used in day-to-day life including cultivation.

There was an important differencebetween the ways we write numbers and theway the Mayans did. We use a decimalsystem, in which there are 10 basic digits (0to 9). We need two digits to write numbersbigger than 9, three digits for numbers biggerthan 99, etc. In contrast, the Maya used abase 20 number system, that is, it had 20digits. So the numbers were written in stepsof 20.

The calendar with 260 days in a year wascalled Tzolkin, and its division was 13 times20. It is composed of 20 day-signs, each ofwhich has 13 variations, and was used todetermine character traits and timeharmonics, in a similar way to Westernastrology. One would count days 1 to 13,and then the second cycle would start. When20 such cycles are completed, a new Tzolkinstarts.

Fig. 2 : The 20 digits of theMaya number system

Fig. 3 : The time cycle of the Maya calendar

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The other one, nowadays called the “longcount calendar,” had 365 days. One problemcan immediately be noticed: the number 365is not divisible by 20. That is why their cyclewas actually of 360 days (18 times 20), afterwhich the remaining 5 days were added. A360-day cycle was called a “Tun”, and the20-day months were called “Uinals”. Eachday of a Uinal was marked by a separatedigit, since they had 20 digits. Larger timeswere measured by multiples of those Tuns.20 Tuns (7200 days) made a “Katun”, 20Katuns (144000 days) made a “Baktun”, and13 Baktuns added up to a “Great cycle” of1872000 days. Thus this great cycle has5200 Tuns. Now if we consider the additional5 days in a year, there are 5126 years in agreat cycle.

Today’s doomsday theorists are pointingat this 5126-year cycle. The Great Cycle ofthe Maya long count calendar started on 11August 3114 BC. From that day, the 5126-year Great cycle is to end on 21 December2012 (when the Mayan date will be13.0.0.0.0). Hence the simple conclusion:The world must end on that day!!

Yet, a little bit of rational thought will tellyou that, when a millennium ends the worlddoes not come to an end, another millenniumstarts. In the same way when a great cycle

ends, another great cyclestarts. In fact, the Maya hadnames for time units largerthan the great cycle: 20Baktuns made a Piktun, 20Piktuns made a Kalabtun,20 Kalabtuns made aKinchiltun, so on and soforth. When the Mayans hadgiven these names for largertime units, they surely didnot imagine that the worldwould come to an end afterthe end of the great cycle.This is just a fruit ofimagination of the fear-mongers.

Moreover, some peoplealways try to tell us that the ancientcivilizations were more advanced than ours.They knew what is known today, and inaddition they knew many things that are yetto be discovered by the modern societies.Based on this belief, the articles publishedrepeatedly in newspapers are telling us thatwhen the Mayans said that a great cycle willend on 21 December 2012, they must haveknown that the world will come to an endon that day. Given that they were such anadvanced civilization, their beliefs must betrue.

But actually, like biological evolution, theevolution of human society is unidirectional.In the history of human society, man haslearnt about nature bit by bit, throughstruggle with nature. A generation hasinherited what the preceding generation haddiscovered, asked new questions on the basisof what is known up to that time, and triedto learn new things. Whatever a generationcould learn became a part of the collectiveknowledge on the basis of which the nextgeneration tried to advance further. Theformation of knowledge is a continuousprocess in which the experience of thepresent generation adds to the collectiveexperience of all the past generations, andthe society advances by the incremental

Fig. 4 : The Maya pyramid

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addition of knowledge. That is why it isunidirectional. This means that, though itis possible for a culturally isolatedcommunity today to remain more backwardthan some of the societies of the past, it isnot possible for a civilization far back in timeto have been more advanced than theadvanced societies of today. That is why, oneshould not blindly believe in the romanticimagery of the Egyptian civilization, theMayan civilization, or the Vedic age in India,and count on hard archaeological evidenceto decide exactly how far those societies hadadvanced.

What can happen that day?

The doomsday theorists did not just saythat the world would end in the year 2012;they also had to present some apparentlybelievable ways in which the world wouldbe destroyed. Let us now turn our attentionto those “possible doomsday events.”

The theory of asteroid collision

We are learning from the doomsdaytheorists that a large asteroid is now headingdirectly towards the Earth, and it will collideexactly on the 21st of December 2012. Howdid we know that? Somebody must have seenthat asteroid with a telescope? Who hasseen? Where exactly in the sky is it visible?Who has calculated its trajectory and hasconcluded that it is indeed in a collisioncourse with the Earth? That it will collideexactly that day?

If you probe these questions, you will getno answer.

In fact, for a long time scientists havebeen keeping an eye on the nearby asteroids,taking note whenever a new asteroid isreported by any astronomer, and keepingtrack of their motion. There is a body ofastronomers doing this work. There is awebsite that maintains the data for all thoseasteroids. Amateur astronomers from allover the world obtain the information of

asteroids from that site, keep eye on them,and regularly update the information. Thatis how we now have very concreteinformation about the asteroids that couldpossibly threaten the Earth. The “Near EarthObject Program” of NASA keeps track of theirtrajectories. None of the professional oramateur astronomers engaged in this workare saying that they have observed anasteroid that will hit the Earth on 21December 2012. They are not saying this,because without a proper observation it isludicrous to say so.

It is not difficult to understand thereason. It is not that an asteroid is comingstraight at us, and moving in a straight linepath, one day it will hit us. The Earth is notstatic; it is moving round the sun. Theasteroid also cannot move in a straight linepath; its orbit is determined by thegravitational attraction of the sun, Jupiter,and any other planet that happens to beclose to it at a point of time. In order todetermine the orbit, the scientists writedifferential equations following Newton’slaws, measure the present position andmomentum of the asteroid, and solve thedifferential equations starting from thatinitial condition. Because of the attractionof multiple bodies which are themselvesconstantly in motion, the trajectory of anasteroid is generally very complicated. Slighterror in estimating the initial conditionamplifies fast, and renders the predictioninaccurate. Scientists know that, with thecurrent accuracy in measuring the positionand momentum of a distant object, theprediction beyond a time-frame of about sixmonths is quite meaningless. That is whythey do not make themselves ridiculous bypredicting where the asteroid will be threeyears later.

Scientists know that there are threeasteroids which can come close to the Earthat some point of time. But for each one it isimpossible to say whether it will really hitthe Earth or will pass by some three hundredthousand miles from the Earth. The closest

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approach is expected from the asteroidnamed Apophis, in the year 2029.

Even if we assume that a few years lateran asteroid is found to be heading for a directcollision, it is possible to send a rocket tointercept it, and to change its course bycausing an explosion nearby. The technologyto do that is already in man’s hand. Wayback in 1988 a satellite was sent to takeclose-up photographs of an asteroid. Nowthe technology is far more advanced than itwas in 1988, and diverting an asteroid doesnot seem to be a big deal.

The theory of magnetic field reversal

We know that the Earth is a large magnet,whose North Pole lies close to the geographicNorth Pole and the South Pole lies close tothe geographic South Pole. It is not that themagnetic axis is the same as the rotationalaxis, but they are close.

Was it always like this? No. Geologistshave found that in the past the magneticpoles have reversed many times. At somepoint of time the South Pole existed wherewe now find the North Pole. Even earlier itwas the North Pole again. How often do thesepole reversals occur? Probing into thisquestion, scientists have found that thereis no order in these reversals. The timeinterval between two reversals changesrandomly. There have been epochs when thechanges occurred in 5000 years; there have

also been epochs when no reversal happenedin 50 million years.

There are two stable positions of themagnetic poles with respect to the axis ofthe Earth’s rotation. It is similar to asituation where a ball is released into adouble-well as shown in Fig.6. It would havetwo possible stable positions. If it has someamount of energy, it would oscillate aroundone of the stable positions. If the energy isincreased, it might jump from one well toanother, and then would oscillate aroundthe other stable position.

The Earth’s magnetic field behaves in asimilar manner. At present the magneticnorth pole is undergoing small oscillationsaround the geographic North Pole. In thepast also such a situation existed for millionsof years. Then, the oscillations would beginto increase in amplitude, and at some pointof time the North Pole crossed the equatorand moved to the southern hemisphere. Itthen settled in its new position close to thegeographic South Pole, and continued tooscillate around it for a long time. Thenagain, the time for another reversal wouldcome.

Cannot such an event happen again? Yes,it can. The only problem is that it isimpossible to predict such an occurrence.Especially, it is complete nonsense to saythat a pole reversal will happen three yearslater, exactly on the 21st of December.

Moreover, it is not a fact that ageomagnetic pole reversal is accompaniedby mass extinction. Some specific speciesmay have problems. For example, the

Fig. 5 : The asteroid Apophis

Fig.6: The Earth’s magnetic axis has two stablepositions, the way the ball in such a containerhas two stable positions.

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migrating birds navigate using the magneticlines of force. Such birds may lose way whenthe magnetic field undergoes change. Butnothing of such a magnitude can happenthat may drive the human race to extinction.Some newspaper reports and internetwebsites are saying that during the polereversal the Earth’s magnetism willdisappear, and so cosmic rays will fall onthe Earth’s surface. A little thought willconvince you how baseless thesepropositions are. Ultraviolet rays and otherelectromagnetic waves are in no way affectedby magnetic field. Ultraviolet rays areblocked by the ozone layer – not magneticfield. Magnetic field can affect the trajectoriesof only the charged particles. Such particlesin the cosmic rays move along the magneticfield lines and enter the Earth’s atmosphereclose to the magnetic north pole. That causesa brilliant display in the night sky, calledaurora borealis. But nobody has ever heardthat the Eskimos or the polar bears diedbecause charged particles had entered theatmosphere. The last pole reversal (theBrunhes-Matuyama reversal) is reported tohave occurred around 7,80,000 years ago.This is a time when the immediatepredecessor of man, the Homo Erectus,roamed on the Earth. They seem to havelived happily through the pole reversal. Thisessentially points to the fact that nothingcatastrophic can happen during a polereversal.

Shift in the Earth’s rotational axis

Some doomsday theorists are saying thaton that fateful day the Earth’s rotational axiswill shift. It is not that this axis neverchanges. Indeed it does. There is an easyway of understanding this. If you extend theaxial line into the sky, it is supposed to meetthe pole star. While all other stars are seento move with time due to the Earth’s rotation,only the pole star is not supposed to move.If you take a long-exposure shot aiming yourcamera at the night sky (it has to be mounted

on a tripod), you will see concentric circulartracks of the motion of the stars. The circlesare centred at a point where the pole star issupposed to be; that is why it is not supposedto move. But if you really take such a shotyou will find that the pole star is not at thecentre, and it also moves in a small arc of acircle. Was it always so? No. Scientists havefound that the Earth’s rotational axis movesin an undulating motion, much like themotion of a rotating top. The pole star wasalong the axial line in the past, but now theaxis has moved slightly away from it.

Citing this motion of the Earth’srotational axis, some people are imaginingthat the Earth’s axis may move away fromits mean position by a large extent. In thatcase the tropic of cancer, which now passesthrough northern India at about 23 degreelatitude, will move away. The places on Earththrough which the new tropic of cancer willpass will then have a climate similar to thatof Northern India; and the climate ofNorthern India will either become too hot ortoo cold. There will be large scale changesin the climate of every place in the world.That will lead to the catastrophe.

Some people are saying that the axis ofrotation, instead of changing with respectto the stars in the sky, may also change withrespect to the Earth itself. In that case thelocations of the geographic north and southpoles, and the equatorial plane will change.One of today’s temperate regions maybecome the new north pole, and the changedequator may pass through a place that isfreezing cold today. That will again lead to acatastrophic climate change.

These two kinds of catastrophes are notentirely impossible though, if we considertime-frames of millions of years. But suchan event cannot happen over short periodsof time. The reason is simple: the rotationalinertia of the Earth. Because of the inertia,no abrupt change can take place in itsrotational motion – unless a large force isapplied from outside, which is impossible inthe case of the Earth. Small changes can

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take place owing to the fact thatthe Earth is not a solid sphere.The inside of the Earth has softand molten parts, whoserotation may not be the sameas that of the outer crust. Therecan be small changes of therotational motion of the planetdue to the constant interplaybetween the motions of variouslayers, but large-scale changescannot occur out of this.

That is why it can be said withconfidence that no catastrophicdisorientation of the Earth’srotation is going to occur on the21st of December 2012.

Super-Earthquake and Super-Volcanism theories

Earthquakes and eruption ofvolcanoes are common events inmany parts of the globe. Thecrust of the Earth is made of afew “plates,” which move withrespect to each other. That causes theearthquakes and volcano eruptions, and thatis why such events mainly occur close tothe plate boundaries.

Can a very large-scale earthquake orvolcano eruption occur? Yes, that is possible.But such an event is always localized. A city,a district, or even a province may be affected.But an earthquake or a volcanic eruptioncannot affect the whole world to the extentof driving the human race to extinction.

Moreover, the occurrence of such a super-earthquake or a large volcanic eruptioncannot be predicted much in advance. Somegeological and biological indicators do actas precursors to such an event, and can beused in prediction, but that is always over ashort span of time. The increase intemperature of soil and groundwater, theswelling of land, the presence of specificgases in sub-surface water, and minortremors often give forewarnings of animpending large earthquake, but only over

a period of a few months. That is why, inthe year 2009, or even earlier, it is impossibleto predict that a super-earthquake or asuper-volcanism will occur on 21st December2012. The Mayans foretelling such an eventis simply ridiculous.

Pole reversals in the sun and solar flare theory

The sun has magnetism, which has itspolarities. The dark spots that sometimesappear on the sun’s body are indicators ofthe sun’s magnetic activity. There can alsobe local magnetic fields due to the movementof hot ionized gas. Movement of chargedparticles means flow of current, and flow ofcurrent produces magnetic field. That is whylocal north poles and south poles can becreated on the surface of the sun. When thathappens, hot gases leap out of the sun’ssurface along the magnetic lines of force, andfall back at the local south pole. Where thegas has outward motion appear bright, and

Fig. 7 : Solar flares on the Sun.

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dark spots appear where it has inwardmotion. This is what we see as sunspots.

The appearance of such sunspots doesnot occur uniformly over time. It has an 11-year cycle, when the number of sunspotsincrease, which indicates an increase of thenumber of local north- and south-poles andhence an increase in the sun’s magneticactivity. At these times, large solar flares leapout of the sun, which can be seen withtelescopes. Through this process, the overallnorth pole and south pole of the sun reversetheir positions. Then again the activitysubsides, and the sun settles in the newmagnetic position for another cycle of 11years.

When the activity of the sun increases,sometimes gigantic solar flares come out ofthe sun. Storms of charged particles emergefrom the sun and move outward, passingover the planets. These flows of chargedparticles create their own magnetic fields,and the resulting “magnetic storms” affectthe magnetic field of the earth.

This affects many things on the Earth.Many artificial satellites are affected. Theaurora borealis becomes extraordinarilybright. The Earth’s magnetic field undergoesrapid changes under the influence of themagnetic storms. We know that a change inmagnetic field can produce voltages inconductors. At present there are many suchlong conductors on the Earth – whichconduct electricity from one place to another.Such long electrical transmission linesexperience over-voltage, which can damageequipment.

Citing such impacts of the increase ofsolar activity, the doomsday theorists arenow saying that in the year 2012 a very largesolar flare will swallow the Earth, and willcause a large-scale catastrophe.

In fact, the last solar pole-reversal eventhappened in the year 2001. Eleven yearslater, in the year 2012, the sun is againexpected to experience increased magneticactivity. Thus far it is correct. But then,imagination spreads its wings.

Can you remember what catastrophicevents happened in the year 2001? Or inthe year 1990? I am positive that you won’tbe able to recall anything special thathappened in those years. Those of us, whowork in the field of engineering, know thatcertain things did happen. On 31 March2001, a few artificial satellites malfunctioned,shutting down internet and TV transmissionfor some time. A transmission line fromSeattle to Los Angeles in the USAexperienced dangerous over-voltage, and hadto be disconnected. As a result many placesin the USA experienced power cuts. That yeara solar flare was so large that the Earthpassed through it.

Except for the engineers handling theseequipments, nobody on this planet feltanything. Solar flares are so tenuous thatnothing happens if the Earth passes throughone. On the basis of these facts, the readercan now argue out how much “disaster” mayhappen when the solar activity againincreases in the year 2012.

Galactic equator theory

If you serf the internet looking forhomepages dedicated to the 2012 doomsday,another theory will attract your attention.It says that in that year, the sun will crossthe galactic equator, and that will cause thecatastrophe.

This probably needs some explanation.We know that the sun is an ordinary memberof the billions of stars that form the giganticconglomeration called the “Milky Way”galaxy. The galaxy is shaped like a disk, andhas spiral arms. The sun is situated on aspiral arm, roughly two-thirds of the radiusaway from the centre. The sun is not placedon the equatorial plane of the galaxy. In fact,it and all the other stars in the galaxyoscillate around the galactic equatorialplane. Once the sun goes to one side of theequatorial plane, and then to the other side.It thus undergoes a harmonic motion withthe equatorial plane in the middle. The

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amplitude, that is, the distancebetween one end of thisoscillation to the other, is about230 light years. The sun coversthis distance in about 33 millionyears.

So far it is correct scientificinformation. But then, theproponents of the doomsdayhypothesis are saying that onthat very day, the 21st ofDecember 2012, the sun willcross the galactic plane. How didthey know that? Simple answer:the Maya calendar makers hadcalculated that.

The fact is, for an event thathappens once in 33 millionyears, it is impossible to sayexactly in which year it willhappen. To predict the date is as ludicrousas it gets. After a lot of observation throughthe modern telescopes, and after a lot ofcalculation, the scientists can at most saytoday that the sun takes about 900 years tocross the central part of the galaxy, and atsome point of time in those 900 years, thesun crosses the geometric equatorial plane.Since there is nothing special in thatequatorial plane – only void between stars –nothing special happens when it crosses.That is why it is impossible to say exactlywhen it crossed the plane.

Why do the “end of the world”theories appear again and again?

This is not the first time that theoriespredicting the destruction of humancivilization have been in circulation. Everyreligion has fables and stories about the startand the end of human civilization. That iswhy, the idea that the world will come to anend becomes a part of the consciousness ofthose who believe in some religion.

For example, the Christians believe thatone day the “final battle” between God andSatan will take place at a place called

“Armageddon”. That battle will finish offhuman civilization – an event called theapocalypse. The Islam religion also hassimilar ideas about the battle between thegod and the evil, and the destruction ofcivilization. Hindus believe that when sin or“adharma” increases in the society, the godhimself comes down and destroyseverything. It is believed that in the pastthere were ages or “yugas” called Satya,Treta, Dwapar, etc., which ended in suchdestructive interference from god. At presentit is the “kali-yuga,” and if sin, corruption,and adharma increase too much, it will alsobe destroyed in a similar manner. Peoplehear about these stories from childhood, andthus ideas about the horrific “last day” entertheir minds unconsciously. When they hearsome apparently scientific-sounding theoriespredicting an impending doomsday, theirminds tend to believe and not question.

There is another important aspect.Today’s youths do not have a bright futurebefore them. Many students, who are lookingforward to building a bright future, will notget entry into the world of higher education.The door to higher education is very narrow.Those who would overcome the hurdle of stiff

Fig. 8 : All stars are part of such Galaxies, and theyoscillate around the equatorial plane.

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Breakthrough Vol. 14. No. 2. November 200914

competition will also be deprived of theaccess to higher studies if their parents arepoor. Today education is a commodity, whichhas to be purchased from the market. Thosewho are lucky enough to have parents whocan afford it, may obtain a higher educationdegree. But the pain of unemploymentawaits most of them. When this is the actualsituation, the mind unconsciously sees animpending doomsday as a welcome event.That single event will make everybody equal,everybody will die together, and the haplessmillions will not have to withstand thetorment of deprivation. The unconsciousmind looks forward to this possibility alongwith the fear of the “final day.” Instead ofstruggle against oppression and injustice,they dream of an alternative picture of acatastrophic event that will destroy theoppression and injustice, and the differencebetween the haves and have-nots. They arefed with this alternative picture. Theybelieve. Their minds want to believe.

Among those who propagate suchnonsense in the name of science, there arepeople who really believe in them. But mostof them do this with an ulterior motive, witha design – to keep people away from thestruggle against injustice and oppression,to keep them dreaming of a “final day” whentheir problems, along with everything else,will come to an end.

Sources of information:

The websites that propagate the doomsday theories of2012:1. www.survive2012.com2. www.december212012.com3. www.polereversal.com4. www.nasca.org.uk/asian_disaster/2012/

2012.html5. www.diagnosis2012.co.uk6. www.2012doomsday.com

The websites giving scientific information on asteroids:1. neo.jpl.nasa.gov (Near Earth Object Program)2. cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/ephimerides/critlist/3. cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/mpc.html (International

Astronomical Union’s Minor Planets Centre)

Websites giving information about the Earth’s magneticfield:1. www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/magnetic/reversals.html2. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/geomagnetic_reversal

For information on the Maya calendar:1. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maya-calendar2. www.mayacalendar.com/menu.html3. www.michielb.nl/maya/calendar.html

For information on the sun’s magnetic activity1. science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast15feb_1.htm2. solar.physics.montana.edu/ypop/spotlight/

magnetic/3. solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/the_key.shtml4. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/03/

070323132406.htm

For information on the galactic equator:1. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/galactic_plane2. www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/223656/

galactic-equator