Will electric cars rule the future?

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Transcript of Will electric cars rule the future?

  • Will electric car rule the future? Nicolas Meilhan Principal Consultant, Frost & Sullivan July 2014
  • 2 3 major challenges we have to take into consideration to develop a sustainable car : climatic changes, end of fossil fuels and air pollution Performance Efficiency Acceleration Top speed CO2 emissions Air pollution Climatic changes CO2 emission at highest level in the last 800,000 years More than 2 expected by 2100 with drastic consequences if nothing is done End of fossil resources 97% of road transportation use fossil fuels Oil, which is the main driver of our economy, might have disappeared by the end of the century Air pollution With the rural exodus and development of mega cities, air pollution has reached unprecedented levels Serious health diseases to multiply drastically ChallengesConstrains Sustainable car KSF = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Costs Total cost of ownership Retail Recharging Maintenance Autonomy Distance without charging Time to recharge Storage weight Infrastructure Investment required to update existing infrastructure and/or build a new one Standards across all countries Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
  • 3 The reason why electric vehicles never met the gap until now is that fossil fuels have the best energy density, both in mass and volume, than any other energy vector Source : Pierre-Ren BAUQUIS Energy density of energy vectors used in transport Fossil fuels have a mass density 100 times as high as batteries 1kg of fossil fuel contain as much energy as in 100 kg of batteries
  • 4 If anthropogenic contribution to climate change is still being debated, global warming is happening with up to 5C increase by 2100 in the worst case scenarios with drastic consequences Sources: Global change.gov 800,000 Year Record of CO2 Concentration Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is 30% higher than at any time in measurable history It is predicted to reach from 550 to 900 ppm by 2100 85% to 200% increase compare to highest concentration observed in the last 800,000 years Projected temperature up to 2100
  • 5 Knowing whether well still have fossil fuel in 2100 is not key the critical issue is how long we will have affordable oil to fuel our economy and our cars Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost Extractioninbillionsofoil barrelsperyear Liquid fuels extraction - 1700 to 2100 - Source: Manicore , Jean-Marc Jancovici It's not the size of the tank which matters, but the size of the tap Jean-Marie Bourdaire
  • 6 0 20 40 60 80 100 60 70 80 90 100 110 Air pollution is one of the key driver for city to adopt EV cars, especially in China. Diesel emissions (particles & NOx) are particularly unhealthy although CO2 emissions are lower Particles (PM) emissions in Paris 9th of juin 2004, 10h, atmo index Mauvais 7 14th of June 2004, 10h, atmo index Bon 3 Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost PM10 = 20 g/m3 PM10 = 80 g/m3 NOx & CO2 emissions by engine technology Diesel Gasoline NOxemissions CO2 emissions Diesel 2005 Downsized Diesel +DPF DPF + NOx trap HCCI+DPF DPF+SCR D Hybrid SI Hybrid PFI 2005 PFI adv + VVT DISI CAI DISI NOx trap DISI turbo 19,000 people killed every year in Europe because of particles from diesel cars Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
  • 7 Extended-Range EVs offer the best trade-off between petroleum consumption and Well-to-Wheel Emission Fuel Consumption and Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions for Future (2035 Cars) Source: More Sustainable transportation: The Role of Energy Efficient Vehicle Technologies, Sloan Automotive Laboratory (MIT), April 2008 Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost Extended-Range 30 miles
  • 8 Country electricity mix can have a huge impact on CO2 emissions of electric vehicles Well to wheel emissions of a battery vehicle Carbon capture and storage is key to reduce transportation emissions in the long term as most of electricity in the USA (40%),Germany (45%) and China (80%) is produced with coal Nuclear and renewable energies (including hydro) are the best alternatives to produce CO2 free electricity Emissions intensity gCO2/kWh g/km Wind 5.5 0.9 Nuclear 15 2.4 Hydro 18 2.9 Nuclear 60 9.6 Natural Gas - CC 461 74 Natural Gas 653 104 Coal 1075 172 CO2 emissions intensity (gCO2/kWh) % of CO2 free electricity Emission intensity (gCO2 / kWh) Well to wheel emissions of electric vehicle* (g/km) France 90% 75 20 Canada 59% 267 43 California 44% 470 75 US 31% 710 114 China 20% 950 160 Source: Rouler sans ptrole, Pierre Langlois, 2008 * Equivalent to an intermediary ICE car = 9l/100 km => 244g/km Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
  • 9 Extended-Range EVs are the only alternative technology able to compete today at a global scale with the ICE on autonomy and infrastructure investment required Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis, 2011 Autonomy Infrastructure investment HighLow Distance Time to recharge Storage weight Internal Combustion Engine 600 km 5 min Already existing45 kg Extended-Range EV 600 km (20 to 60 km electric) Already existing2-3 hours 50 to 90 kg Electric vehicle 60 to 250 km electric To be developed4-8 hours 90 to 250 kg Fuel Cell Vehicle 600 km To be developed5 min 90 to 100 kg Performance Perform a n c e Climatic changes End of fossil r e s o u r c e s Air pollution Sustainable car = same performance, autonomy and cost as an ICE Autonomy Infrastructure Cost
  • 10 Extended-Range EV is expected to be competitive with the ICE by 2015 with a payback period of les than 4 years for an oil price at 2,5 /L without any state subsidy Total cost of ownership of an ICE compared with a Extended-Range EV * Prospects for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in the United States and Japan: A General Equilibrium Analysis MIT, 2009 ** 80% of French drivers average trip per day is less than 50 km every day Payback period sensitivity to oil price and state subsidy TCO of a C-segment car ICE Extended-Range EV with 50 km electric autonomy Retail price () 14800 (20000$) + 7400 (+10000 $*) Electric autonomy 0 km 50 km Energy consumption 7 l/100km 1.4 l/100km ** & 15 kWh/100km Annual energy consumption (14000 km) 980 l 196 l & 1,68 MWh Annual TCO(1,75/l & 100 /MWh) 1715 343 + 168 = 511 Annual TCO(2 /l & 100 /MWh) 1960 392 + 168 = 560 Annual TCO(2,5 /l & 100 /MWh) 2450 490 + 168 = 658 Oil price 1,75 2 2.5 Incremental annual TCO of ICE 1204 1400 1882 Payback period without subsidy 6.1 years 5.3 years 3.9 years Payback period with a 2,000 subsidy 4,5 years 3,9 years 2.9 years Payback period with a 4,000 subsidy 2.8 years 2,4 year 1.8 years puisement des nergies fossiles Performance Changements climatiques Pollution atmosphrique Autonomie Infrastructures Cots
  • 11 0 5 Well to Wheel Emissions Autonomy Infrastructure InvestmentEnergy Efficiency Cost 0 5 Well to Wheel Emissions Autonomy Infrastructure InvestmentEnergy Efficiency Cost Internal Combustion Engine Electric Vehicle Extended-Range EV Fuel Cell Vehicle Extended-Range EV represent the best trade-off for a sustainable vehicle at a global scale in the short to medium term - up to 2030 0 5 Well to Wheel Emissions Autonomy Infrastructure InvestmentEnergy Efficiency Cost 0 5 Well to Wheel Emissions Autonomy Infrastructure InvestmentEnergy Efficiency Cost Sources: Frost & Sullivan analysis, 2011
  • 12 The market potential for electrified vehicles mostly depend on 2 factors: 1. Battery prices reduction from $600/kWh 2. Gas prices increase from $3.5 per gallon Electrified vehicles projected competitiveness with internal-combustion-engine vehicles - Total cost of ownership (US example)1 - 1 Assumes 15 kWh/km (as may be achieved with lightweight, efficient air-conditioning)Source: Mc Kinsey, 2011
  • 13 Electrification of vehicles will take place progressively starting with Extended-Range EV whose electric autonomy increases when battery prices decrease - up to the day when all vehicles will run electrically ICE will still be around for a while representing the majority of vehicle sales for another 15 years Hydrogen is very unlikely to be used in a car before 2025 - only an energy vector for gas or nuclear, no significant advantage over an PHEV and some investments required to set up a distribution infrastructure EV, which neither emits CO2 nor pollutants, still face too many challenges cost, autonomy, infrastructure, norm standards to have a chance to replace at a global scale the ICE before 2040. There is however a potential for EV and FC in local niche applications like company fleets, car sharing or bus/tramway Extended-range EV has both the ICE advantages autonomy, infrastructure required, affordable cost - and the EV ones Energy efficiency, Well to Wheel emissions without sharing their drawbacks Annual light-duty sales by technology type Annual global EV and PHEV sales Source: EIA 2011
  • 14 The higher the gas price, the more electrified cars are sold! Best way to promote electrified vehicles is to increase gas prices either artificially through a carbon tax or by selling more cars to Chi