Bruce Schubert, Emxsys

WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT TOOLWhat It Can Do & How to Make It Do More

NASA World Wind Europa Challenge

September 19-22, 2012, Como Italy

Bruce Schubert• Software Architect, Designer, Developer

• Emxsys Open Source Developer• Emergency Management Geomatics• Wildfire Management Tool

• AeroComputers Mission Management System• Software Architect and Developer

• UltiChart Mission Management System for Police and Fire Helicopters

• Cartographer• Nationwide Street Level Maps

• Georeferenced Video Synchronized with Maps• Fire Mapping with Aircraft and EO/IR Sensors

• Ventura County Fire Department• Software Development Manager• ICS

• Situation Unit Leader• Field Observer

• Volunteer • Firefighter/Battalion Chief• Search, Rescue and First Aid• CPR Instructor• Sound Technician (FOH and Recording)

Wildfire Management Tool

The Art of the Campbell Prediction

System

The Science of BEHAVE

http://emxsys.com

POTENTIAL FIRE BEHAVIORAND THRESHOLDS OF CONTROL

Doug Campbell’s Wildland Fire Prediction and Communication System (CPS)

Doug Campbell

Rothermel’s Fire Spread Model

Richard C. Rothermel

WMT: A Simplified Display of Complex Data

Inputs Location Outputs

Vision Statement

• For wildland firefighters

• Who need tactical decision support tools

• The Wildfire Management Tool (WMT)

• Is a decision support system

• That predicts the potential fire behavior

• Unlike BehavePlus and FARSITE

• This product uses on-scene fire behavior observations

Fire Behavior 101Fire behavior is the manner in which a fire reacts to the influences of:

• Fuel• Weather• Topography

Basic Fire Behavior NomenclatureHEAD

RIGHTFLANK

LEFTFLANK

REAR or HEAL

Directio

n of Spread

Origin

Spot fire

Rate of Spread

Flame Length

Slope and Aspect Derived from Terrain

Fuel Model Data from Web Map Servers

Determine Fire Behavior at Any LocationDirection of Maximum Spread and Flame Length

Show Fire Behavior in Familiar Terms

Haul Chart

Firefighters Can Predict Fire Behavior

Fire Behavior is greater when force vectors are aligned.

Fire Behavior

Campbell Prediction System

Learn from the Past—Predict the FutureWhat Does the Fire Tell You?

• Alignment of Forces Concept• In-alignment tracks

• Trigger Points• Geographic/Temporal

• Fuel Flammability Curves• Replications

Case Study: South Canyon

Case Study: Dillon

How to Make It Do More

The Problem With Models1. The model is inaccurate.

2. The model is too complex.

Solving one problem exacerbates the other.

Drawing Hands, M.C Escher

Develop A Model Based on Ground Truths

Learn from the Past—Predict the Future• Build a Fire Behavior Observation Database

• Local• Regional• International

• Data collected by Field Observers via Georeferenced Photos• Photos must display horizontal and vertical references• Observations codified by Fire Behavior Analysts• Photo queries viewed by Incident Commanders

Add a Wind Field Model• Incorporate terrain effects into the surface winds• Incorporate a diurnal slope flow model• Need for modeling lee winds

Determine Trigger Points

A trigger point is a place on the terrain where a change in the alignment of forces will change the fire behavior, creating either an opportunity for suppression or a danger to firefighters. • Analyze fire behavior predictions over the spatial and

temporal domains to determine when and where fire behavior may change.

• Render trigger points on the terrain viewer and on a timeline.

Show Thresholds of Control• Drape a Threshold Of Control color overlay on the terrain.

1. LOW 0-1’ Fire will burn and will spread however it presents very little resistance to control and direct attack with firefighters is possible

2. MODERATE 1-3’ Fire spreads rapidly presenting moderate resistance to control but can be countered with direct attack by firefighters

3. ACTIVE 3-7’ Fire spreads very rapidly presenting substantial resistance to control. Direct attack with firefighters must be supplemented with equipment and/or air support.

4. VERY ACTIVE 7-15’ Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Indirect attack may be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area becomes a concern.

5. EXTREME >15’ Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Any form of attack will probably not be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area is of critical concern.

Simulate Short Term Fire Behavior• Create a 3D Fire Simulation display

• Not a fire progression model• Render Head, Flanking and Backing fire behavior

Software Architecture

NetBeans Platform WorldWind SDKLibs: VisAD, JFreeChart

WorldWind NetBeans ModuleEmxsys APIs

CPS Plugin

Software Design Fundementals

CHEAP

GREAT

FAST

FREE

IMPOSSIBLEUTOPIA

JUST INTIME TO BETOO LATE

CODE SMELLS

YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR

LimitedUse

Write ItYourself

Pick Two:

World Wind

Who Uses It?• United States Forest Service• CALFIRE• Catalonia GRAF