Wicked problems handout - ETH Z€¦ · Wicked Problems • Multiple actors • Differing...
Transcript of Wicked problems handout - ETH Z€¦ · Wicked Problems • Multiple actors • Differing...
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Wicked Problems(Understanding complexity)
Agree concepts
Define boundaries
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Land spanning more than 0.5 hectares with trees higher than 5meters and a canopy cover of more than 10 percent, or treesable to reach these thresholds in situ. It does not include landthat is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use.
What is a forest?
Definitions matter
Source: Rekacewicz et al. 2009 http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/forest
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13 m ha.yr‐1Determining trends
Reforestation7,8 m ha.yr‐1
Forest Expansion
Afforestation
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Understanding the trendDeveloping a dynamic systems understanding
Time
EXPLAINING THE TRENDS: Identifying Drivers
Underlying causes
Proximate causes
Influencing factors
Demography
Births, deathsMigrationPopulation density
Culture
Public attitudes, beliefs, valuesIndividual behaviour
Institutions
Formal policiesPolicy
environmentProperty rights
Technology
IntensificationInfrastructureProcessing efficiency
Economy
Market growthMarket demandPrice fluctuation
Infrastructure
Transport & energyIndustrialisationUrban expansion
Agriculture
Cultivation typeLand clearanceLand speculation
Timber extraction
Commercial loggingIllegal logging
Logging intensity Environment
Disturbance regime
Social & political stability
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It’s complex!
Wellbeing
• Quality of Life
• Think…
• What is important in your life?
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What is important for your quality of life?
Capital Assets Framework
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Natural Capital
• Land and products
• Water & aquatic resources
• Trees and forest products
• Wildlife
• Wild foods & fibres
Physical Capital
• Infrastructure• transport ‐ roads, vehicles, etc.
• secure shelter & buildings
• water supply & sanitation
• energy
• communications
• Technology• tools and equipment
• seed, fertiliser, pesticides
• traditional technology
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Financial Capital
• Savings
• Credit/debt
• Remittances
• Pensions
• Wages
Human Capital
• Health
• Nutrition
• Education
• Knowledge and skills
• Capacity to work
• Capacity to adapt
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Social Capital
• Networks and connections
• Trust
• Formal and informal groups
• Participation in decision‐making
• Leadership
Livelihoods
“The assets (natural, physical, human, financial and social), and access to these determine the living gained by the individual or the household”
Source: Ellis, 2000. Rural Livelihoods and Diversity in Developing Countries.
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The Social‐Ecological System
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Trade Offs
1. Ecosystem Services
2. Strategies
3. Stakeholders
4. Technical fixes
People have many different options, and they are good at finding new ones!
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Wicked Problems
• Multiple actors
• Differing perspectives
• Conflicting interests
• Significant intangibles
• Pervasive uncertainties
• Each solution is unique
• Each solution is costly
• …and has consequences
Former US Secretary of State George Shultz drew a distinction between “problems you can solve”, and “problems you can only work at.”
Think of a problem.
Are you having trouble clearly defining it?
Does it involve changing what people think or do, or how they think of themselves?
Do you suspect that when you think you have solved it, there will still be some outstanding issue, or new problem to deal with?
Do you know that no matter what you do, someone will be unhappy?
Does the problem keep changing?
Are you failing to make progress by being rational?
An environmental problem.
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Wicked Problems
• Solutions are not right or wrong …
… but more or less acceptable
• No stopping rule
• The answer is a process
• Authoritative
• Competitive
• Collaborative
Taming Wicked Problems