Why WiMAX

Tom FlanaganDirector, Broadband Strategy

Broadband Communications GroupTexas Instruments

Syllabus

• An introduction to Texas Instruments and our role in broadband?

• Historical perspective on market development

• Wireless technologies and the role of WiMAX

• What others are saying• Final Exam

Summary

• Consumer markets increasingly drive technology evolution

• Mobile phones are the most significant consumer product– Mobile phone networks will have advantage in scale

• Of the various flavors of WiMAX, 802.16e has the best chance for success– Combines reasonable bandwidth with mobility– Needs acceptance in mobile phones to be successful

(4G?)

• Bandwidth is Key. Wired networks deliver fixed bandwidth best– WiMAX may serve niche applications in fixed broadband

but will not displace Cable, DSL and Fiber

Who is TI?

• Most consumers and educators in particular know us for our calculators

The Opportunity for TI

• Analog– Converting the

world we live in to digital information

• Digital Signal Processing– Analyze, compress,

enhance, transmit

Roughly ½ of all mobile phones shipped are TI based8 of 10 3G designs use TI

And many more…

SX1

SPV

F2051

Tungsten TN2051

P2102V

P800

T191

3650

Zire 71

G8000

Wireless

..and many more…

Broadband

DSP Drives Broadband

• 1984 Dial modem• Hayes 212

– 1,200 Bits Per Second

– $1,200

• 1984 Leased Line Modem

• Racal 19.2– 19,200 Bits Per

Second– $20,000

Modems sell for $1,000 per kilobit

DSP Drives Broadband

• 2004 - Broadband Cable Modem

• 3 Million Bits Per Second

• $3,000,000

Modem Cost Per Kilobit

$1,041.67

$0.02$-

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

1984 2004

DSP Drives Broadband

• How is this possible?– Signal processing

innovation• Hardware and software

– Process technology development

– System on Chip Integration (SOC)

– Drives cost down– Expands the potential

market– Enables new markets:

• The Connected Home– And the innovations

continue…

Enabled By SOC Integration

Consumer Friendly Prices

• 1984 Modem• Hundreds of

suppliers– minimal software

• WLAN DSL Modem• 1 supplier

– hardware and software

• Broadband Modem• Router• WLAN

Delivering

• The Connected Home

Delivering

• The Impact of the Connected Home– Consumers and

their connectivity needs have matched the enterprise and telecommunications markets as a driving force in the development of networking equipment and networked products

Available Today

• Retail outlets, consumer friendly prices

• Billions of connected devices

Bob Metcalfe's Law

• Connect any number, "n" of machines and you get "n" squared potential value – The value of a

network grows exponentially as the number of connected devices increases

• True for Enterprises– Equally true for Connected Homes

Ubiquitous Networking

• How we communicate will change radically when the network is all around us.– Consider how Voice has changed in the

past 15 years.

The Old Paradigm

Physically Tethered - You went to the Network

TI Vision: Ubiquitous VoIP

• More than a replacement for traditional telephony

• VoIP support will be incorporated into desktops, servers, gateways and consumer electronics operating systems

• Hardware cost per channel will drop to the point that basic VoIP capability can be incorporated into nearly any connected device

that has an IP connection

E v e r y w h e r e

Integration

• The popularity of mobile phones has made them the integration platform of choice– Voice, Music, TV, Radio, Cameras,

Medical– Further cementing their role as the key

consumer electronics product

According to Nokia650 million mobile phones will ship in 2004

And many more…

SX1

SPV

F2051

Tungsten TN2051

P2102V

P800

T191

3650

Zire 71

G8000

Wireless

The Economist

• Mobile and landline telephony– Marriage or divorce?

Bandwidth

• We can’t have enough bandwidth– It is like disk storage –

eventually we use it all• Broadband connectivity

will be an economic differentiator in the future– Are we on the wrong side

of the digital divide?– The US is currently 13th in

household connectivity– Asians lead in bandwidth

• 10Mbps very common in Japan and Korea

• 100Mbps is the fastest growing service in Japan

Distance

WLAN802.11g

ZIGBEE802.15.4

BlueTooth802.15.1/1a

UWB802.15.3a

WLAN802.11b

2.5G 3G

10m

100m

2km

1Mb/s 50Mb/s BandwidthData/Voice

SDTV/HDTV

Music : high bit rate 256kb/s + Music <100kb/s

10km

20km+

100Mb/s

PAN

LAN

MAN

WAN

802.11a/HyperLan2

M WiMAX802.16e

4G

Bandwidth is based on Per-subscriber

MWBA802.20

FWBA802.16a

FWBA802.16

3.5G

5km

2008/92008/9

20062006 20102010

2006/72006/7

20052005

WLAN802.11n

20052005

BlueTooth2.0802.15.4a

20052005

20042004

20052005

Reach / Coverage

Choices

• So what we need to consider is which technology or connectivity method is best for each portion of the network

• WiMAX may be a key technology for future networks but only a portion of the solution.– And as there are flavors of WiMAX the

application of the technology will further fragment

Broadband Connectivity

• The key broadband technologies will be those that bring connectivity to consumers– Dual requirements

• Mobile• Fixed (at home)

802.16a/d

Wireless Technologies

Bandwidth(Mb/s)

2G/2.5G

Distance

10m

100m

1Km

10Km

50Km

802.20

802.16e

10 100

802.16

10.1

3.5GWCDMA-HSDPA

3GIMT-2000

CDMA 1xEV-DOCDMA 1xEV-DV

W-CDMA

802.11

BlueTooth UWB

Mobile Broadband

10 10010.1

Fixed(Stationary)

Pedestrian(Nomadic)

Mobile(Vehicular)

802.16e

802.20

2G/2.5G

3.5GWCDMA-HSDPA

3GIMT-2000

CDMA 1xEV-DOCDMA 1xEV-DV

W-CDMA

Mobility

Bandwidth(Mb/s)

802.11 UWBBlueTooth

DoCoMo will lead the HSDPA trial as early as next year

Mobile Broadband

• 2.5 and 3G Wireless technologies will dominate the near term requirement for mobile broadband– Too late for WiMAX to have an impact

here• WiMAX (802.16e) has a chance of becoming

a key element of 4G wireless

802.16a/d802.16a

802.16a/d Fixed Broadband Market Opportunity

• 802.16d = Indoor• 802.11x competitor

• 802.16a = Line of sight

• Cellular Backhaul• Corporate last mile• Residential last mile

(green field primary)• DSL and Cable Modem

gap filler in cities and mostly rural areas

• Developing countries (Eastern Europe, Latin America, some tier 2 cities in China)

• Hot Spot Backhaul

Unique Opportunity For Higher Education

• Use 802.16e to provide campus wide outdoor data access

Fixed Broadband

• In the US the dominant technologies will remain Cable and DSL

• It looks like Fiber may become a reality

• FTTC (curb) FTTH (home) FTTP (premises)

Yesterday the FCC approved BPL and Deregulated Telco Fiber

What Carriers Are Saying

• AT&T– May use WiMAX for local loop replacement

• Paid $9.5B last year for leased lines

• BT/France Telecom– Looking to use WiMAX for DSL gap filler in

UK and France for ubiquitous broadband coverage

• Covad– Exploring the possibility of conducting

WiMAX trials late this year as a way to bridge gaps in DSL coverage.

The Analysts View

• Market research firm iSuppli on Monday described a largely lackluster outlook for WiMAX, which it said is surrounded by hype and will likely fail to catch on beyond niche applications. Established broadband access providers see no reason to adopt yet another technology for delivering data at high speeds, the company said.

• These applications will not be large enough to sustain the multitude of silicon suppliers and equipment manufacturers who have expressed interest in developing products for WiMAX," iSuppli said. "The hype surrounding WiMAX ... as a fixed wireless access technology will remain just that -- hype."

• A report from ABI Research on Monday said efforts to position WiMAX as a Wi-Fi killer -- Intel, for instance, plans to support WiMAX in its notebook computer chips in 2006 -- will fail.

• "WiMAX enthusiasts sometimes claim that it will 'kill' Wi-Fi. Nothing could be further than the truth," a note from ABI said. High power consumption makes WiMAX an unlikely choice for battery-powered devices like laptop computers and personal organizers.

Questions?