Why Viggle (VGGL) Is A Short: Up To 66% Downside

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    Why Viggle is a Short: Up To

    66% DownsideBleecker Street Research

    June 3rd, 2014

    Disclosure: We are short shares of Viggle, Inc (VGGL)

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    Robert Sillermans Public Track Record

    RobertSillerman

    Viggle

    SFX

    Entertainment

    CKXEntertainment

    Riviera

    Holdings

    CircleEntertainment

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    Circle Entertainment

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    SFX Entertainment

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    Declining User Growth

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    Declining User Engagement

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    Decreased Transparency

    (Metric) 6/30/2014 12/31/2014 3/31/2014

    MAUs

    Time w/in App Persession

    Engagements/Day

    Average Days

    Active

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    What Do Employees Say?

    Smart and vibrant team, shamefully wasted

    The product no long works well, and is anoutright embarrassment (see the reviews) the

    user base is plummeting. Misery and frustration is rampant among

    staff

    Im not optimistic about the outlook for thiscompany

    Source: Glassdoor

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    What Do Employees Say? (contd)

    Sinking Ship

    Pros: You work in a great neighborhood.

    Cons: You work for Viggle, the worst companyof all time.

    Advice to Senior Management: Respect

    human beings.Source: Glassdoor

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    What Do Employees Say? (contd)

    Development team is poorly managed and

    developers are not respected or trusted by

    their own management (treated more as

    resources than as people.

    Management creates unrealistic schedules

    and timelines and promotes them as accurate

    throughout the company, then blamesdevelopers when dates arent met.

    Source: Glassdoor

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    Valuation

    Viggle currently trades at $5.73

    Market cap is $79 million

    This puts Viggles P/S ratio at 4.59

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    Valuation

    Base Case

    Base Case (Viggle trade in-

    line with entertainment

    stock peers) Viggle P/S: 2.48

    Implied Share Price: $3.09

    Downside: -46%

    Bear Case

    Bear Case (Viggle trades in-

    line with S&P500 P/S)

    Viggle P/S: 1.56 Implied Share Price: $1.95

    Downside: -66%

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    The End