Why Study Why Study Environmental Environmental Geology?Geology?

Poorna Pal, MS MBA Ph.D.

Professor of GeologyChair: Geology & Oceanography ProgramGlendale Community College

Disaster mitigation has becomeDisaster mitigation has become a socioeconomic necessity because of increasing

– Fatalities– damage and destruction

an increasingly complex task because of intricate public policy choices

in addition to the perennial problems ofin addition to the perennial problems of a seemingly insatiable demand for the natural

resources and the attendant problems of environmental

degradation and climate change.

FatalitiesFatalitiesSince the 1970s, natural disasters have produced two-thirds of all disaster-related fatalities worldwide.

Fatalities are more common in the economically less developed Third World than in the economically developed world.

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* International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (The Economist, Sept 6, 1997)

High wind: 21%

Earthquakes: 8%Earthquakes: 8%

Flood: 19%Flood: 19%

Other naturalOther naturaldisasters: 21%disasters: 21%

Volcanoes: 1%Volcanoes: 1%

Drought & Famine: 6%Drought & Famine: 6%Landslides: 3%Landslides: 3%

Man-madeMan-madedisasters: 34%disasters: 34%

Disasters*Disasters*by type: 1971-96by type: 1971-96

TotalFatalities

worldwide: (1971-96)8,219,000

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00 44 88 1212 1616

ETHIOPIAETHIOPIA

CHINACHINABANGLADESHBANGLADESH 31.931.9

SUDANSUDAN

48.448.4

DISASTER FATALITIES* (1971-96: IN THOUSANDS)DISASTER FATALITIES* (1971-96: IN THOUSANDS)

MOSTLY FLOODSMOSTLY FLOODS

MOSTLY FAMINEMOSTLY FAMINE

MOZAMBIQUEMOZAMBIQUE

MOSTLY MASS STARVATIONMOSTLY MASS STARVATION

INDIAINDIA

SOVIET UNION/CIS STATESSOVIET UNION/CIS STATES

IRANIRAN

PHILIPPINESPHILIPPINES

NICARAGUANICARAGUA

COLUMBIACOLUMBIA

GUATEMALAGUATEMALA

SOMALIASOMALIA

NIGERIANIGERIA

PERUPERU

MEXICOMEXICO

HONDURASHONDURAS* International Federation of Red Cross * International Federation of Red Cross

and Red Crescent Societies and Red Crescent Societies (The Economist, Sept 6, 1997)(The Economist, Sept 6, 1997)

MOSTLY FLOODSMOSTLY FLOODS

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Deaths

Damage

Changes, in this century, in the number ofChanges, in this century, in the number of deaths and cost of damage, in U.S. hurricanes

(cost in billion 1996$)

Source: Harvey Blatt: OUR GEOLOGIC ENVIRONMENT (Prentice Hall, 1997) back

The Complexities of Disaster The Complexities of Disaster Mitigation StrategiesMitigation Strategies

Predictive value of the scaling law Predictive value of the scaling law and its implications for the public-and its implications for the public-policy choices.policy choices.

Population Growth, Technology and Population Growth, Technology and Environmental StressEnvironmental Stress

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0.1

1

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Frequency PlotsFrequency Plots

This exponential scaling This exponential scaling gives us three alternative gives us three alternative choiceschoices

Flatten the curveFlatten the curve Steepen the curveSteepen the curve Lower the interceptLower the intercept

1

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11 J. Bradford DeLong: http://econ161.berkeley.edu/ J. Bradford DeLong: http://econ161.berkeley.edu/

Gross Gross World World

ProductProduct11

22 P. Jorion & W. Goetzmann: Journal of Finance, 54(3), June 1999 P. Jorion & W. Goetzmann: Journal of Finance, 54(3), June 1999

World World Stock Stock MarketMarket22

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… … and so are economic prosperity and so are economic prosperity and carbon emmissionsand carbon emmissions

GDP (PPP) in trillion US $GDP (PPP) in trillion US $

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Thus, the environmental stress Thus, the environmental stress attendant to population growth attendant to population growth presents a catch-22 situation:presents a catch-22 situation:

Poverty and deprivation enhance Poverty and deprivation enhance environmental stress.environmental stress.

But this stress is only aggravated But this stress is only aggravated by the technology that is needed by the technology that is needed to ameliorate the deprivation. to ameliorate the deprivation.