Why Religion is at the Heart of America’s Identity Crisis...Same-sex Marriage: Pew Surveys,...
Transcript of Why Religion is at the Heart of America’s Identity Crisis...Same-sex Marriage: Pew Surveys,...
Why Religion is at the Heart of America’s Identity Crisis
Robert P. Jones, Ph.D.
2
The End of an Era
White Christian America
A metaphor for:
• the cultural and political edifice
• built primarily by white Protestant
Christians,
• which set the tone for our national
conversations and shaped American
ideals.
Vital Signs
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The One Chart:White Christian Minority, Same-sex Marriage Majority
5954 54 53
48 46 47 45 43 42 4132
36 37 3640 39
48
51 52 52 54 5359 61 64
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Sources: White Christian: General Social Survey, 2004-2012; PRRI Surveys, 2010-2016.Same-sex Marriage: Pew Surveys, 2004-2009; PRRI Surveys, 2010-2018.
Percent of Americans who are white Christian vs. percent who favor same-sex marriage, 2004-2018
White Christian Favor same-sex marriage
ObamaPresidency
5
A Minority White Christian Country
42
23
6
25
3
White ChristianNonwhite ChristianOther religionUnaffiliatedDont know/Refused
Source: PRRI 2017 American Values Atlas.
6
The Decline of White Christians by Age
63
50
35
23
16
23
26
25
5
5
7
8
13
18
29
40
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
65+
50-64
30-49
18-29
Source: PRRI 2017 American Values Atlas.
White Christian Nonwhite Christian Other religion Unaffiliated Don't know/Refused
7
More Young Adults are Unaffiliated Today than in the Past
10
2023
38
812
17
26
37
13
18
35
812
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1986 1996 2006 2016
Sources: General Social Survey, 1986, 1996, 2006; PRRI 2016 American Values Atlas.
Religiously Unaffiliated by Age Cohort, 1986-201618-29 30-49 50-64 65+
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The Decline of White Christian Subgroups, 2006-2017
2321.4 20.8 19.9
18.316.8
15.317.8 17
15.5 14.913.7 12.8 13.316 16.1
14.2 13.9 1311.4 11.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source: Pew Religion and Public Life Survey, 2006-2009; PRRI, American Values Survey, 2010 and 2012; PRRI,
Pluralism Survey, 2011; PRRI 2013-2017 American Values Atlas.
White evangelical Prot. White mainline Prot. White Catholic
9
Decreasing Proportions of White Christians by StatePercentage of White Christians by State, 2007
HI 14
10
Decreasing Proportions of White Christians by StatePercentage of White Christians by State, 2016-2017
11
A Caveat: White Evangelicals, Proportion of Electorate vs. Population (2008-2018)
26 26 26 26 26 26
21 21 2018 17
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Source: National Exit Polls, 2008-2016; Pew Religion and Public Life Survey, 2008; PRRI, American Values Survey, 2010-2012; PRRI American Values Atlas, 2014-2018.
Electorate Population Linear (Population)
End of Life Bargaining: From “Values Voters” to “Nostalgia Voters”
13
Stages of Grief
14
Trump Remains Popular with White Evangelicals
30 2731
2428
33
43 4338 41
3742
3741 42
35 36
4839
4940
46
6168
7465
7368
76 7773 72
68 68
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18
Sources: PRRI Surveys, 2015-2018
Favorability of Donald Trump Among White Evangelical Protestants, 2015-2018All Americans White Evangelical Protestants
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The Trump Effect on White Christian Political Ethics
Our Divided, Dysfunctional Nation:Partisanship, Religion, and Tribal Identity
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Widening Religion Gap between the Parties
37
17
22
16
20
16
2
1
2
18
3
3
3
8
56
13
12
4 9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Republicans DemocratsSource: Pew Religion and Public Life Survey, 2006.
2006 Unaffiliated
Other world religions
Jewish
Other Christian
Hispanic Catholic
Hispanic Protestant
Black Protestant
Mormon
White Catholic
White mainlineProtestantWhite evangelicalProtestant
33
7
19
12
16
10
4
1
1
17
3
3
3
9
5
6
1
3
1
3
1227
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Republicans DemocratsSource: PRRI 2017 American Values Atlas.
2017
18
Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner? Partisanship in the Family
19
Negative Views of the Other Party
5 5
38 39
54 52
4 4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Republican Party (amongDemocrats)
Democratic Party (amongRepublicans)
Source: PRRI 2017 American Values Survey.
Do you feel that the policies of the following...
Don't know/Refused
Are so misguided they poseserious threat to the countryAre somewhat misguided butnot dangerousMove the country in the rightdirection
Coming Together and Standing Apart
21
Interactions with Difference
22
Where Americans Encounter Difference
23
Which Institutions are Bringing People Together?
1950 or 2050? The Challenge of Re-Envisioning America
25
Stark Partisan Divides on the Ideal of Racial Diversity
26
Stark Partisan Divides on the Ideal of Religious Diversity
27
Nostalgia for the 1950s
66 66 65 62 60 57 57 48 43 42 41 41 36 31 25
34 34 34 36 39 43 43 51 56 57 59 57 64 68 74
0
20
40
60
80
100
Source: PRRI 2016 American Values Survey.
Since the 1950s, do you think American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the better, or has it mostly changed for the worse?
Mostly changed for the better Mostly changed for the worse Don't know/Refused
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1950 or 2050? The Challenge of Re-Envisioning America
Why Religion is at the Heart of America’s Identity Crisis
Robert P. Jones, Ph.D.
EXTRA SLIDES BELOW
31
Optimism About Cultural and Demographic Change
66 66 62 60 57 56 48 43 42 41 41 34 31 25
8573 78
6078 69 64 56 57 56 52 50 43 42
0102030405060708090
100
Sources: PRRI 2016 American Values Survey; PRRI/The Atlantic 2018 Voter Engagement Survey.
American culture has mostly changed for the better Demographic change mostly positive
32
Independent Predictors of 2016 Support for Donald TrumpAmong White Working-Class Voters
11
3.5
3.3
1.9
-1.7
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Republican Identification
Fears of Cultural Displacement
Deport Undocumented Immigrants
Economic Fatalism
Economic Hardship
Source: PRRI/The Atlantic White Working Class Survey, 2016.
Support for Donald Trump: Odds Ratios from Multivariate Regression Model
33
Racial/Ethnic Composition of Evangelicals
63
19
10
12 3 2
White, non-Hispanic
Black, non-Hispanic
Hispanic
API
Native American
Other/Mixed race
Don't know/Refused (VOL.)
Source: PRRI 2017 American Values Atlas.
34
Evangelicals by Race and Ethnicity
15
522
51
25White Evangelical
Black Evangelical
Hispanic Evangelical
API/Other/Mixed RaceEvangelicalNon-Evangelical Religious
Unaffiliated
Source: PRRI 2017 American Values Atlas.
35
Median Age of Evangelicals by Race
4753
5650
40 40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
All Americans All Evangelicals WhiteEvangelicals
BlackEvangelicals
HispanicEvangelicals
API Evangelicals
Source: PRRI 2017 American Values Survey.
36
Growing Discomfort with Children Marrying Across the Aisle
5
27
49
4
20
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 2008 2010Note: Numbers for 2008 and 2010 are percent who said they would be very or somewhat upset.Sources: Almond and Verba Civic Culture Study, 1959-1960; YouGov Surveys, 2008 and 2010.
Percent who say they would be displeased if son or daughter married a supporter of the other party
Republican Democrat
37
Most Republicans Distrust Reporters' Motives
53
79
52
31
43
17
45
66
0102030405060708090
All Americans Republican Independent DemocratSource: PRRI 2017 American Values Survey.
Do you think most reporters have a personal or political agenda, or are most reporters trying to report the news fairly and accurately?
Personal or political agenda Trying to report news accurately