Observatory on Crime

Rosaria ConteNicola Lettieri Mario Paolucci

Laboratory of Agent Based Social Simulationhttp://labss.istc.cnr.it

What

Systematic study of phenomena that arouse serious social alarm (i.e. organized crime, cyber-crime, corruption, financial fraud, drug and arms trafficking, low compliance)

Why

Costs of corruption: from $800 billion to $2 trillion in current U.S. dollars (source: United Nations, World Bank)

Cost of war on terrorism in US since 9/11: over $1 trillion (Source: US Congress Research Service report) – March 2011

Cost of global drug trade: over $321,6 billion (Source: United Nations report, 2005)

http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/features/GTD-Data-Rivers.aspx

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_drug_trade

http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,contentMDK:20190295~menuPK:34457~pagePK:34370~piPK:34424~theSitePK:4607,00.html

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL33110.pdf

Observatoryon financial crisis

LOW COMPLIANCE

ORGANIZED CRIME

CORRUPTION

Extorsion racket systems

Crime Observatory

Observatoryon epidemics

Social Contagion

?

Observatory: one proposal two promises

A paradigm shift in our understanding of complex, global, socially interactive systems revealing the hidden laws and processes underlying societies

A deep change in the way policy makers face enormous challenges ranging from financial

and economic instability to crime, environmental and climate change

Science

Policy making

B

A

What for

Provide an innovative and evolutionary view of crime and social failures

Forecast social failures and crime dynamics in interaction with other social phenomena

Help design policy modeling (legal answers and social policies)

Train decision makers through serious games and simulations

Support decision makers in the public and in the private sector

An innovative approach of crime...

The Observatory will be built upon an innovative scientific view and technological instruments• Increasing spread and prosperity of organized crime

systems • Organized crime systems and corruption contribute to

worldwide wealth! • Criminal activities are interdependent and connected

with low compliance phenomena affected by cognitive, cultural and social dynamics.

We still need a theory about the propserity and spread of crime.Criminal systems like Extortion Racket Systems can be studied as systems establishing a “social order”, based on credible dominance relationships- Effective deterrence - Culture of honor

The Observatory:The Observatory will apply innovative approach characterized as: 

Cross-methodologicalwhereby real data are compared with simulation-based ones

Interdisciplinarybenefiting from the joint effort of a consortium including sociologists, political scientists, criminologists, sociologists of law, legal scientists, economists, computer scientists, mathematicians, analytical philosophers and game theorists, as well as cognitive scientists.

Computational supplying computational laboratories where performing what-if analyses, testing hypotheses, and addressing policy design issues.

Agent-basedinvestigating and making explicit the socio-cognitive and behavioral individual mechanisms inducing people to low compliance.

About corruption…

Most indexes (Ci,Ti etc.) are subjective!How to do data/reality mining?

Where to put sensor?Major scientific problems.

Forecast social failures and crime dynamics in interaction with other social phenomena

illegal systems flourish in typologies, frequency, spreading, and related costs.

Can we predict the next step in crime spread/flow?

Help coordinate and design law-making,policy modelling…

Global threats need global answers Criminal activities are often punished and regulated in different ways in different european countries… (PETRA RESKI)

European and national policies need coordination and harmonization at different levels (SEMIRA PROJECT):

Expected outcomes

Increase of tax revenues

Reduction in the costs of crime and crime prevention

Higher efficacy of fight against crime

Higher quality of policy/decision making

Crime Observatory…how it should work.

Data/ reality mining

Theory building/revision

Models

Simulations

Predictions

Policy making

Sensors, Stakeholders and other

Observatories feedback

About the stakeholders…

International/EU/Policy Makers

National International Police Forces

Courts

NGOs - Foundations

About experts…Henri Berestycki (CNRS and EHESS, France)Marc Barthelemy (CEA-Saclay, France),Jean-Pierre Nadal (CNRS and EHESS, France)Andrzej Nowak (Psychology, Poland)David Hales (Computer Sci. UK) Nigel Gilbert (Surrey, UK)Klaus Troitzsch (Political Science, Germany)Jeremy Pitt (Imperial College, UK)Arturo de Salabert (Universidad Autonoma de Madrid)Diego Gambetta (Oxford University, Nuffield College)Antonio La Spina (University of Palermo)Giovanni Sartor (EUI)Maurizio Bonolis (University “La Sapienza” – Sociology)FrancescoForgione (President of Italian Antimafia Commission)John E. Eck (University of Cincinnati Professor of Criminal Justice) Sergio Moccia (University “Federico II” - Criminal Law)Nicola Gratteri (Prosecutor – Antimafia)Donatella Della Porta (European University Institute –sociology) Federico Varese (Oxford University)Jakob Svensson (Political Science – Stocklolm)Vittorio Scarano (University of Salerno – Computer Science)Ernesto Fabiani (University of Benevento – Legal Science)Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (George Mason University, Farifax, VA)Kathleen Carley (Carnegie Mellon – Cognitive Science)Martin Short (CAM, USA)Neil F Johnson (ESSEX UK)Aron Clauset (CO, USA)David Hales and others from P2P COMMUNITY

…..

Thank you!