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Slide 1Why CLEWS matter A Focus on the Energy System of
Mauritius
International Energy Workshop 2013, Paris
.
Manuel Welsch, Sebastian Hermann, Mark Howells KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Stockholm
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 1
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
The CLEWS Approach
desa.kth.se 15.07.2013 2
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Government vision for making Mauritius a sustainable island focussing on reducing dependence of fossil fuel and reducing GHG emission …
Why Mauritius?
In Mauritius, Climate, Land-use, Energy, and Water Sytems (CLEWS) were expected to be highly interrelated:
• Producer and exporter of sugar (occupying 80% cultivated land area)
• EU decision in 2009 to cut guaranteed sugar import price by 36%
• Dependent on fuel imports (83%) for its energy requirement
• Diverse climate, prone to climate change • Integrated agricultural and energy policy • Small island with clear boundaries • Robust resource data available • Previous case studies
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 3
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Aim
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 4
To quantitatively demonstrate the added value of an integrated CLEWS assessment. This is done by comparing conclusions derived from an energy model (“Current Practice Approach”) with those of an integrated “CLEWS approach”.
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Energy Water Land Use
Water availabilty for each point in the system (on the
island) under different conditions / szenarios
Grid map of Mauritius showing optimal crops,
potential water use, and potential yield including a
„Crop calendar“
Applied Modelling Tools
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 5
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Applied Modelling Tools
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 6
Development and calibration of water, energy and land use model using 10 years data (1996- 2005) • WEAP - water • LEAP - energy • AEZ - land production planning Selective integration of the different models using common assumptions and “soft” linkages to calculate: • What are the changes in total costs? • What are the influences to the local water balance? • How changes the local energy balance? • What are local and externally induced GHG emissions?
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
desa.kth.se 15.07.2013 7
Model Set-up – Current Practice Approach
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Model Set-up – Current Practice Approach
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 8
LEAP was used to calculate:
• the average power plant dispatching; • future capacity requirements; • ethanol production from sugar cane; • changes in fuel imports to the island due to the substitution of gasoline with
ethanol; • the effects of changes in rainfall patterns on generation; • greenhouse gas emissions on the island; • associated external emissions due to fuel processing and fertiliser supply;
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
desa.kth.se 15.07.2013 9
Model Set-up – CLEWS Approach
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Model Set-up – CLEWS Approach
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 10
LEAP was set up exactly the same as in Current Practice approach. Additionally, the following interlinkages were considered:
Input
• Bioenergy production potential and fertiliser requirements for alternative crop; • Additional water pumping demands:
− For urban water supply and sugarcane processing from the water model; − For agricultural irrigation from the land-use model;
• Desalination demand for urban water supply from water model; • Monthly storage volumes & river flows to consider competing water demands;
Output • Water demands for ethanol production and power plant cooling;
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Scenarios
Interlinkages between CLEWS were assessed for different scenarios:
• Investigate the effects of increases in local ethanol production until 2030. • Assessing the impacts of climate change • Considering the implications of growing an alternative crop
Business as Usual Ethanol – 1st generation
Ethanol – 2nd generation
Current Practice Approach
BAU BAU+CC
1GEN 1GEN+CC
1GENCLEWS 1GEN+CCCLEWS
2GENCLEWS 2NC+CCCLEWS
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
desa.kth.se
15.07.2013 12
OVERALL WATER WITHDRAWALs AND ENERGY DEMAND IN DIFFERENT CLEW SCENARIOS
Mauritius Total Water Withdrawals Under Different Integrated CLEW Scenarios
Mauritius Total Energy Demand Under Different Integrated CLEW Scenarios
Increasing energy demand for biofuel production: Energy demand increases as demand for water pumping and desalination grows.
260
280
300
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340
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380
W at
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Cu bi
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Reference Scenario
Production of Ethanol
Production of 1st generation ethanol under the "Worst Case" climate change scenario
2000
2500
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3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
En er
gy D
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d in
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aw at
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ou rs
Reference Scenario
Ethanol Production
Production of ethanol under a "Worst Case" climate change scenario
Water withdrawals increase under climate change scenarios: To compensate for reduced rainfall, irrigation will have to be expanded to previously rain-fed sugar plantations and farms. This leads to higher withdrawals of surface and ground water.
THE IMPACT OF TRANSFORMING TWO SUGAR PROCESSING PLANTS TO PRODUCE 2nd GENERATION ETHANOL (PROJECTED FOR 2020)
Reduced fuel imports Reduced greenhouse gas
emissions Reduced expenditures
The import dependence decreases. Gasoline imports are reduced as ethanol replaces gasoline as a motor fuel. Some bagasse is diverted from electricity generation to ethanol production, which needs to be compensated for by increased imports of coal and distillate oil.
Total greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. Tailpipe and upstream emissions are reduced as gasoline is replaced by ethanol. The increased use of coal and distillate oil (in place of bagasse) for electricity generation results in smaller additional emissions.
Ethanol production has an economic benefit. As some of the sugar is converted to ethanol, the expenditures for sugar refining and gasoline imports are reduced. This outweighs the reduced sugar export earnings and the costs associated with ethanol production and the increases in oil and coal imports.
Baseline
Gasoline imports
Sugar refining.
Sugar exports
Oil imports
Ethanol prod.
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
desa.kth.se
15.07.2013 15
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Results - Changes in Generation in 2030
BAU+CC compared to BAU BAU+CCCLEWS compared to BAUCLEWS
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 16
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Results - BAU+CCCLEWS compared to BAUCLEWS
Changes in Electricity Demand related to Water Requirements in 2030
Changes in Generation in 2030
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 17
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Current Practice Approach:
• 1st GEN ethanol very advantageous − +43.5 mill. USD, − 1,950 TJ ethanol, − -148,000 tons of CO2-eq
• 2nd GEN less attractive
• 2nd GEN remains less attractive
• 1st GEN with climate change − -40% hydropower generation − +400 TJ of coal and oil
imports − -106,000 tons of CO2-eq
• 1st GEN with climate change − +67,000 MWh for water supply − Hydropower generation only 28% of
the Current Practice Approach − +1,380 TJ of coal and oil imports − +10,000 tons of CO2-eq
• New Crop scenario − Less favorable, but could not have
been assessed without CLEWS
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Factors which may indicate that a CLEWS approach should be applied:
• Integrated policies with potential implications for multiple resource systems
• High shares of hydropower • Climate change induced rainfall changes • Water stress • Conflicting water management priorities • Holistic assessment of greenhouse gas emissions
Does the effort justify the added value?
desa.kth.se 15.07.2013 19
High-level CLEWS panel announced by the Government of Mauritius at Rio+20 conference to ensure an integrated approach to CLEWS-related policies.
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
• Welsch M., Hermann S., Howells M., Rogner H.H., Young C., Ramma I., et al. Adding Value with CLEWS – Modelling the Energy System and its Interdependencies for Mauritius. Applied Energy, reviewed.
• M. Howells, S. Hermann, M. Welsch, R.E. Segerström, H. Rogner, T. Alfstad, et al. Integrated analysis for climate change, land-use, energy and water strategies. Nature Climate Change, in press.
• S. Hermann, M. Welsch, R.E. Segerström, M.I. Howells, C. Young, T. Alfstad, et al. Climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) interlinkages in Burkina Faso: An analysis of agricultural intensification and bioenergy production. Natural Resources Forum, 36 (4), pp. 245–262, 2012.
Publications
International Energy Workshop 2013, Paris
.
Manuel Welsch, Sebastian Hermann, Mark Howells KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Stockholm
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 1
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
The CLEWS Approach
desa.kth.se 15.07.2013 2
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Government vision for making Mauritius a sustainable island focussing on reducing dependence of fossil fuel and reducing GHG emission …
Why Mauritius?
In Mauritius, Climate, Land-use, Energy, and Water Sytems (CLEWS) were expected to be highly interrelated:
• Producer and exporter of sugar (occupying 80% cultivated land area)
• EU decision in 2009 to cut guaranteed sugar import price by 36%
• Dependent on fuel imports (83%) for its energy requirement
• Diverse climate, prone to climate change • Integrated agricultural and energy policy • Small island with clear boundaries • Robust resource data available • Previous case studies
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 3
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Aim
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 4
To quantitatively demonstrate the added value of an integrated CLEWS assessment. This is done by comparing conclusions derived from an energy model (“Current Practice Approach”) with those of an integrated “CLEWS approach”.
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Energy Water Land Use
Water availabilty for each point in the system (on the
island) under different conditions / szenarios
Grid map of Mauritius showing optimal crops,
potential water use, and potential yield including a
„Crop calendar“
Applied Modelling Tools
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 5
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Applied Modelling Tools
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 6
Development and calibration of water, energy and land use model using 10 years data (1996- 2005) • WEAP - water • LEAP - energy • AEZ - land production planning Selective integration of the different models using common assumptions and “soft” linkages to calculate: • What are the changes in total costs? • What are the influences to the local water balance? • How changes the local energy balance? • What are local and externally induced GHG emissions?
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
desa.kth.se 15.07.2013 7
Model Set-up – Current Practice Approach
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Model Set-up – Current Practice Approach
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 8
LEAP was used to calculate:
• the average power plant dispatching; • future capacity requirements; • ethanol production from sugar cane; • changes in fuel imports to the island due to the substitution of gasoline with
ethanol; • the effects of changes in rainfall patterns on generation; • greenhouse gas emissions on the island; • associated external emissions due to fuel processing and fertiliser supply;
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
desa.kth.se 15.07.2013 9
Model Set-up – CLEWS Approach
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Model Set-up – CLEWS Approach
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 10
LEAP was set up exactly the same as in Current Practice approach. Additionally, the following interlinkages were considered:
Input
• Bioenergy production potential and fertiliser requirements for alternative crop; • Additional water pumping demands:
− For urban water supply and sugarcane processing from the water model; − For agricultural irrigation from the land-use model;
• Desalination demand for urban water supply from water model; • Monthly storage volumes & river flows to consider competing water demands;
Output • Water demands for ethanol production and power plant cooling;
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Scenarios
Interlinkages between CLEWS were assessed for different scenarios:
• Investigate the effects of increases in local ethanol production until 2030. • Assessing the impacts of climate change • Considering the implications of growing an alternative crop
Business as Usual Ethanol – 1st generation
Ethanol – 2nd generation
Current Practice Approach
BAU BAU+CC
1GEN 1GEN+CC
1GENCLEWS 1GEN+CCCLEWS
2GENCLEWS 2NC+CCCLEWS
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
desa.kth.se
15.07.2013 12
OVERALL WATER WITHDRAWALs AND ENERGY DEMAND IN DIFFERENT CLEW SCENARIOS
Mauritius Total Water Withdrawals Under Different Integrated CLEW Scenarios
Mauritius Total Energy Demand Under Different Integrated CLEW Scenarios
Increasing energy demand for biofuel production: Energy demand increases as demand for water pumping and desalination grows.
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
W at
er W
it hd
ra w
al in
M ill
io n
Cu bi
c M
et er
Reference Scenario
Production of Ethanol
Production of 1st generation ethanol under the "Worst Case" climate change scenario
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
En er
gy D
em an
d in
G ig
aw at
t H
ou rs
Reference Scenario
Ethanol Production
Production of ethanol under a "Worst Case" climate change scenario
Water withdrawals increase under climate change scenarios: To compensate for reduced rainfall, irrigation will have to be expanded to previously rain-fed sugar plantations and farms. This leads to higher withdrawals of surface and ground water.
THE IMPACT OF TRANSFORMING TWO SUGAR PROCESSING PLANTS TO PRODUCE 2nd GENERATION ETHANOL (PROJECTED FOR 2020)
Reduced fuel imports Reduced greenhouse gas
emissions Reduced expenditures
The import dependence decreases. Gasoline imports are reduced as ethanol replaces gasoline as a motor fuel. Some bagasse is diverted from electricity generation to ethanol production, which needs to be compensated for by increased imports of coal and distillate oil.
Total greenhouse gas emissions are reduced. Tailpipe and upstream emissions are reduced as gasoline is replaced by ethanol. The increased use of coal and distillate oil (in place of bagasse) for electricity generation results in smaller additional emissions.
Ethanol production has an economic benefit. As some of the sugar is converted to ethanol, the expenditures for sugar refining and gasoline imports are reduced. This outweighs the reduced sugar export earnings and the costs associated with ethanol production and the increases in oil and coal imports.
Baseline
Gasoline imports
Sugar refining.
Sugar exports
Oil imports
Ethanol prod.
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
desa.kth.se
15.07.2013 15
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Results - Changes in Generation in 2030
BAU+CC compared to BAU BAU+CCCLEWS compared to BAUCLEWS
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 16
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Results - BAU+CCCLEWS compared to BAUCLEWS
Changes in Electricity Demand related to Water Requirements in 2030
Changes in Generation in 2030
15.07.2013 desa.kth.se 17
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Current Practice Approach:
• 1st GEN ethanol very advantageous − +43.5 mill. USD, − 1,950 TJ ethanol, − -148,000 tons of CO2-eq
• 2nd GEN less attractive
• 2nd GEN remains less attractive
• 1st GEN with climate change − -40% hydropower generation − +400 TJ of coal and oil
imports − -106,000 tons of CO2-eq
• 1st GEN with climate change − +67,000 MWh for water supply − Hydropower generation only 28% of
the Current Practice Approach − +1,380 TJ of coal and oil imports − +10,000 tons of CO2-eq
• New Crop scenario − Less favorable, but could not have
been assessed without CLEWS
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
Factors which may indicate that a CLEWS approach should be applied:
• Integrated policies with potential implications for multiple resource systems
• High shares of hydropower • Climate change induced rainfall changes • Water stress • Conflicting water management priorities • Holistic assessment of greenhouse gas emissions
Does the effort justify the added value?
desa.kth.se 15.07.2013 19
High-level CLEWS panel announced by the Government of Mauritius at Rio+20 conference to ensure an integrated approach to CLEWS-related policies.
Why CLEWS Matter A Focus on the Energy System of Mauritius
• Welsch M., Hermann S., Howells M., Rogner H.H., Young C., Ramma I., et al. Adding Value with CLEWS – Modelling the Energy System and its Interdependencies for Mauritius. Applied Energy, reviewed.
• M. Howells, S. Hermann, M. Welsch, R.E. Segerström, H. Rogner, T. Alfstad, et al. Integrated analysis for climate change, land-use, energy and water strategies. Nature Climate Change, in press.
• S. Hermann, M. Welsch, R.E. Segerström, M.I. Howells, C. Young, T. Alfstad, et al. Climate, land, energy and water (CLEW) interlinkages in Burkina Faso: An analysis of agricultural intensification and bioenergy production. Natural Resources Forum, 36 (4), pp. 245–262, 2012.
Publications
