+

Why British Columbia needs to Turn Down the Heat:Climate Change & B.C., Canada:A World Bank Coursera Final Project

+Outline

Introduction: The World Bank’s “Turn Down the Heat” Report British Columbia, Canada

Negative effects: Environmental effects Economic effects Health effects

Implications Conclusion

+Introduction: World Bank Report World Bank Report “Turn Down the

Heat”: Must avoid a 4 degrees C increase in

global temperatures to avoid irreversible climate change

The frequency/severity of floods, droughts, storms, and other natural disasters are predicted to rise

These events will have untold global effects on the environment

Climate change will effect key industries, services & infrastructure

Image source: http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/Feature%20Story/ECA/Poalnd/Heat-Report-400x264-copy.jpg/_jcr_content/renditions/original

+Introduction: B.C., Canada

Location: Westernmost province of Canada Known for its natural beauty and diverse ecosystems However, Climate change is already affecting Canada!

Canadian insurance companies: payouts have doubled every five years (since 1983) due to: Property damage Infrastructure damage More sickness Higher mortality

Image source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/130995712@N05/15782802834/in/photolist-q3EZqf-i9R261-fYaW2-dXL75-ebh8V-baWtw-baWzG-hWT7G-k2vXA-igVBH-iGU5y-igVBD-hJFxZ-kj6RB-i6uNV-i6uP1-hJFy3-hEiux-hER2M-hJFy1-qH6z4A-4nBGW8-2vVkpu-eAnZM-3brkWN-jhnBi-jhnAm-hEiuu-qH7KwE-qH7KbQ-aeauBR-jhnEa-8b9gRs-jhnCH-bJ4FQ4-6giM3-hER2X-akH4UF-hER2N-q3EW21-qH5Skb-qH7Ruw-q3EYnU-qH6CCE-qZAAjG-aoYHob-Tkbah-MZEKw-aVF1Pc-5HHtaC

+Environmental effects: Rising temperatures By 2050:

Greater Vancouver: Will have average temperature of Northern California

Prince George Area: Okanagan weather

By 2080: Projections of further

warming of 0.9-1.8 degrees C

+Environmental effects:Milder winters & drier summers B.C. lost 50% of snow pack in last 50-100 years

Less snow runoff in summer less water for crops less water for hydropower/industries

Annual precipitation increased 20% Spread of outbreaks (due to mild winters)

Blue Stain Fungus Spread by Mountain Pine Beetle Affected area = 4 Vancouver Islands (13 million ha) Range could expand north & east

More severe fires/droughts

+Environmental Effects:The Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic

Image source: http://www.bcbudget.gov.bc.ca/2005_sept_update/bfp/img/bgt2005u_p1_tb_beetle2.gif

+Environmental Impacts:What happened to the snow?

Image source: https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/graphics/maps/snowpack-early-2015-full-width-map.jpg

+Environmental effects:Floods & Rising sea levels Changing rain/snow patterns: affects rivers, lakes, groundwater B.C. glaciers have steadily been retreating Faster melts/increased precipitation

Floods in Fraser Valley, Interior regions and other areas in B.C.

Low lying areas hit hardest (ie: Delta) Higher flood risk due to storms

Sea Level Rise: 4-12 cm along most of the coast Up to 16-34cm in Vancouver area over past century By 2050

Northern B.C. coast: up to 30cm Northern Yukon: up to 50cm

+Environmental effects:Sea Level Rise in the Lower Mainland

Source: Sierra Club of Canada, BC Chapter

+Environmental effects: Species’ adaptation Forests: What trees will adapt to 2050 climate?

Forests need 40-50 years to establish Trees can’t move as fast as climate

North shore mountains Dying of stress Summer drought/Winter storms

Western Red Cedar Iconic First Nations symbol May migrate to Northeastern B.C. (to Fort Nelson) May get taken over by early successional pine

(vulnerable to beetle)

Pacific Northwest: Could lose 47% of plant species What species will take over?

Image: https://www.flickr.com/photos/78791029@N04/10550975926/in/photolist-h5mvy3-89VbbU-79mqaJ-cbUtB1-ebgPeH-7pueyn-7pufjx-p2ZUm2-pGpvko-pYywKV-pGiGCz-8Xbz4A- 8Xbz5E-8Xbz59-pq6FTM-31bjw1-7H39k2-a7n1CM-7RfzmX-8X8y6B-99k18Y-nENVXk-cuRWCh-7xCvps-db2Vvo-db2Vri-db2TBQ-7py1uN-7py2GY-9p4ggf-9p4ggs-561fcJ-ebgL7a-ebnoDy-ebnqXQ-ebgKyv-ebnoZU-ebgNB8-jeVKt8-nENVra-nEP9U3-6KMgKG-5cVsNW-516Pax-4xJcAi-qUAFTF-noGr8-4SNWm7-4NU5i1-snXYSQ

+Economic Effects: Forest & Fisheries Large amounts of timber lost due to

fire & mountain pine beetle Fisheries may be affected by

increased glacier melt/warmer waters Acidification of water ways can prevent

shellfish larvae from properly developing shells Zooplankton (with calcium carbonate

shells) are main food source for salmon

Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/-annon/5295721297/in/photolist-94XXrB-5tsiK3-7fMQGz-fbGf1v-2VrGRW-dqrAS5-7r87wG-35XGZ4-2VrHmE-gvvAgD-dsxE3t-7j6GaC-i5JFm6- rVfqA-dsxPq9-3fL2et-7ectrF-pHAwiE-jTwyJn-dsxEz4-dsxDJz-o77McC-95mqpf-aAxHAW-8N9A5f-cNXPwh-2PAox-rVgkV-77Ed57-bZmp11-77AgHX-p4En8G-oP7ztW-9j2AfE-opBP8a-ozKVV-4z6Tc2-oXs8dM-7j2tiz-8tjhPh-oE51GW-psjmaJ-xHa3d-9rd7iv-3HBToB-gXiukh-f3gcTv-fWVEEC-4fpiFK-7BCJP8

+Economic Effects: Agricultural sector Crops damaged by pests and extreme weather Risk of soil salinization

Once soils are salty, nothing can be done

Destroyed crops: 2009: Spotted wing drosophila destroyed cherry crops in

Okanagan 2010: High precipitation destroyed much of the root crops in Delta 2012: Drought in Peace River region

Prince George: Will have Okanagan-type climate (warmer) Will there be enough water?

+Economic effects:Damage to infrastructure Roads

Milder winters More freeze/thaw cycles reduce life of road/maintenance cost

Flooding 2010: Highway to Bella Coola

destroyed (175 residents evacuated)

Buildings By 2050, 2000-3000 homes at risk of

floods At a cost of $2000/annum per resident

by 2050s Fire season of 2003

Destroyed 334 homes, 45,000 evacuated

Fire off Highway 20 (BC, Canada)

Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/wanderin_weeta/4905826227/in/photolist-8tvDdP-8qks8X-8rREUR-fgsCnM-8gaRsn-6HH6Xf-2aTwrG-4d4WQu-4d4WPm-zJQWP-4cZXsz-6Qb3dU- 4d4WSY-9PvZrt-9PvZri-9RnSG3-9Rkq98-9RnSGd-9Rkq8Z-9RnSFG-9Rkq94-9RnSFU-9Rkq96-9RnSFQ-9RnSG7-BmfKb-8qkqWH-9wJWsG-aWKVVg-uQr8m-uQr8d-ywu6N-uQr8k-aq7X9x-9wZE4y-tXDgb-qbAdQ-9wWGbD-aWKWcn-qbA1L-aqaDqh-aqaDt5-aqaDxG-aq7X6P-5QrGbY-akEYeW-qbAd5-uGfEL-3bpUv6-xhuUP

+Health Effects:

Air Quality: 2010 fire season: air quality warnings issued by City of Vancouver and

Government of Alberta

Stroke/Respiratory illness: Due to heat waves 2009: 8 day heat wave in lower mainland

Vancouver Coastal Health Authorities reported more deaths compared with average

More outbreaks: Cryptococcus gattii fungus (caused by milder winters)

Since 1999: 129 infections, 4 deaths on Vancouver Island

Psychological impacts: Due to evacuation from floods/fires

+Implications: What needs to be done? Agricultural sector:

Take advantage of improved agricultural systems (Northern B.C.) produce more food to support a growing population

Need improved irrigation systems to combat water shortages Natural methods to eliminate crop pests/diseases Reduce dependency on US imports

California current accounts for the majority of fruit & vegetable imports to B.C. but agriculture sector now in crisis due to water shortages

Forestry sector: Improve market for blue fungus stained timber destroyed by mountain pine

beetle Reforest based on future forest structure projections

Fisheries sector: Improve the fish farming industry Adapt market for changing fish stocks due to changing water system

conditions

+Implications:What needs to be done? Reduce carbon footprint

Expand clean, public transportation Promote energy saving measures

Invest in renewables Reduce dependency on hydroelectric power Avoid turning to fossil fuels to supplement energy demand

Improve infrastructure: Better flood mitigation Improved road systems

+Conclusion: Major action needs to be taken

International agreements (COP21 in Paris) By national, provincial, and municipal

governments Communities need to work together to find

feasible, sustainable solutions

New initiatives with future conditions in mind: A larger population Fewer resources More natural disturbances

+Sources:

http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=4e21d69f-b3e3-4776-99cf-2da3b2ee1104

http://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/topic.page?id=BE3D1E436EE14ADE8255FA0AD060659C

http://www.livesmartbc.ca/learn/effects.html http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Climate+cha

nge+impact+agriculture+study/8455586/story.html

https://www.biv.com/article/2015/2/climate-change-looms-major-threat-key-bc-industrie/