WHO’S THE ACE - marketwatch.bloodhorse.commarketwatch.bloodhorse.com/pdfs/20150207.pdf · who’s...

SIRES 2YO CONSIGNORS ARE BETTING ON

JUDGING NEW SIRES BY PEDIGREE, PERFORMANCE

Special Section

WHO’S THE ACE AMONG 2015

FRESHMAN SIRES?

Champion Racehorse

and Proven Sire$12,500 LFSN

A T o p 2 0 A c t i v e S i r e i n 2 0 1 4

o v e r $ 6 ,10 0 ,0 0 0 i n p r o g e n y e a r n i n g s

w i t h t w o g r a d e 1 w i n n e r s

m g 1 s w i o ta pa - o w n e r o f t h e

h i g h e s t f e m a l e b e y e r o f 2 0 1 4 at m o r e t h a n a m i l e

s o l d f o r $ 2 ,8 0 0 ,0 0 0 at k e e n o v

E c l i p s e F i n a l i s t T e x a s R e d

h i g h e s t e a r n i n g 2 yo c o lt o f 2 0 1 4

owns the highest 2YO Beyer at more than a mile

$ 2 6 M i l l i o n i n

l i f e t i m e p r o g e n y e a r n i n g s‘‘

BLOOD-HORSE

#1 on Steve Haskin’s

Derby Dozen

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LGB, LLC 2015 / Benoit Photo

*Statistics accurate as of press time

Gainesway Farm 859.293.2676 / Michael Hernon 859.621.6295Neil Howard 859.621.6273 / Brian Graves 859.621.6270

Texas REd (G1)

co-highweight

on experimental free hcp

at 126 lbs.

Breeders’ Cup

Juvenile Champion (G1)

Texas Red, bred by StonestreetThoroughbred Holdings LLC


Champion Racehorse

and Proven Sire$12,500 LFSN

A T o p 2 0 A c t i v e S i r e i n 2 0 1 4

o v e r $ 6 ,10 0 ,0 0 0 i n p r o g e n y e a r n i n g s

w i t h t w o g r a d e 1 w i n n e r s

m g 1 s w i o ta pa - o w n e r o f t h e

h i g h e s t f e m a l e b e y e r o f 2 0 1 4 at m o r e t h a n a m i l e

s o l d f o r $ 2 ,8 0 0 ,0 0 0 at k e e n o v

E c l i p s e F i n a l i s t T e x a s R e d

h i g h e s t e a r n i n g 2 yo c o lt o f 2 0 1 4

owns the highest 2YO Beyer at more than a mile

$ 2 6 M i l l i o n i n

l i f e t i m e p r o g e n y e a r n i n g s‘‘

BLOOD-HORSE

#1 on Steve Haskin’s

Derby Dozen


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MarketWatch / 5

This special section of MarketWatch is all about the next wave of freshman sires

that have first-crop 2-year-olds of 2015.The new intake of stallions is highlighted by

Uncle Mo, the champion 2-year-old male of 2010; Gio Ponti, a champion grass horse with plenty of dirt pedigree influences; and Trappe Shot, whose yearling average was the highest ever for a first-crop sire that entered stud for a $10,000 fee.

Since our next look at the offspring of these sires will be at the 2-year-old sales, Glenye Cain Oakford examines the changing juvenile auction landscape. Keeneland April is gone (at least for 2015), some sales have relocated to new venues, and sale companies continue to tinker with their catalogs and under tack show formats to appeal to both consignors and buyers.

Next, Michael Compton talks to 2-year-old consignors about the progeny of first-crop sires under their care; some of the stallions with impressive 2-year-olds in training may surprise you.

Alan Porter discusses how the commercial stallion market selects for pedigree, racing performance, and physical appearance—but can these criteria help us predict eventual success as a sire?

Finally, we review last year’s close race for leading freshman sire between Quality Road and Super Saver. Todd Pletcher trained both horses during their racing careers, and he offers his perspective on what each sire is passing on to his progeny. Then, Lane’s End and WinStar Farm tell us what makes their stallion—Quality Road and Super Saver, respectively—unique.

Enjoy,

Ian TappManaging Editor

Vol. CXLI, No. 6 The Blood-Horse (ISSN 0006-4998) is published weekly except for the first week of June, the first week of July and the fourth week of December, plus two special issues, one in July and one in December by The Blood-Horse Inc., 3101 Beaumont Centre Circle, Lexington, Ky., 40513. Periodicals postage paid at Lexington, Ky., and at additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to—THE BLOOD-HORSE, P.O. Box 911088, Lexington, KY 40591-1088. Combined issues count as two subscription issues. One-year subscription surface rates: United States, $99.00 (plus sales tax where applicable); Canada, $172.20 (including GST); all others, $269.00 payable in U.S. funds drawn on a U.S. bank. Optional air expedited service available $394.00 US dollars. Send subscription orders, change of address requests, or inquiries to: THE BLOOD-HORSE, Circulation Dept., P.O. Box 911088, Lexington, KY 40591-1088; or for fastest service call in the U.S./Canada: (800) 582-5604. All others may call (859) 278-2361. Hours are Mon.-Fri., 8:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m. EST/EDT, except holidays. Fax us at: (859) 276-6743. Include copy of mailing label for address changes. Allow 4-6 weeks for arrival of first copy or for address change to take effect. Send Letters to the Editor and all other correspondence to: THE BLOOD-HORSE, P.O. Box 919003, Lexington, Ky., 40591-9003. (859) 278-2361. Canada Post International Publications Mail Product (Canadian Distribution) Sales Agreement No. 40028969. Canada GST registration R128871423. Printed in the United States. Data provided or compiled by The Jockey Club Information Systems Inc. generally is accurate but occasionally errors and omissions occur as a result of incorrect data received by others, mistakes in processing and other causes. The Jockey Club Information Systems Inc. disclaims responsibility for the consequences, if any, of such errors, but would appreciate their being called to its attention. Information as to races, race results, earnings and other statistical data for races run subsequent to Dec. 31, 1990, was obtained from Equibase Company and is utilized only with permission of the copyright owner. Such information for periods prior to Jan. 1, 1991, was obtained from the Daily Racing Form Inc. Copyright © 2015 by THE BLOOD-HORSE Inc. All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, in any form or by any means, electronic or otherwise, without the prior written permission of THE BLOOD-HORSE Inc.

IN THIS SECTION

6FINDING THE RIGHT MIX

9EARLY IMPRESSIONS

12FRESHMAN SIRES BY THE NUMBERS

20GUESSING GAME

22SIZE AND ATHLETICISM

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Cover illustration by Katie Taylor

2-Year-Old Auction Preview

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Larger, multi-day catalogs are designed to attract buyers at all price levels

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Finding the Right MixTABLE 1

Yearling to 2-year-old pinhooking trends, 2009-14Horses sold as yearlings and again as 2-year-olds in North America

Yrlg-2YO Years

No. Pinhooks Yrlg Avg. 2YO Avg.

No. Profitable

% Profitable

Yrlg Gross 2YO GrossRate of Return

2013-14 1,466 $44,368 $82,897 583 40% $94,363,289 $115,451,163 22%

2012-13 1,235 $39,232 $85,135 586 47% $73,151,161 $99,884,805 37%

2011-12 1,089 $34,100 $74,461 435 40% $58,914,440 $77,033,286 31%

2010-11 1,133 $31,856 $63,620 374 33% $58,752,605 $68,476,911 17%

2009-10 958 $34,508 $71,639 357 37% $52,218,441 $65,198,577 25%

Total 5,881 $37,371 $76,257 2,335 40% $337,399,936 $426,044,742 26%

| 2YO auction landscape undergoes reconfiguration |

B Y G L E N Y E C A I N O A K F O R D

This year’s 2-year-old auction season is throw-

ing some new variables at buyers and sellers, includ-ing the loss of Keeneland’s April sale, a format change for the Ocala Breeders’ Sales Co.’s March auction, and venue changes for the Fasig-Tipton Florida and Barretts May sales, which relocate to Gulfstream Park and Del Mar, respectively. But even with those chang-ing features, sale executives and auction participants say they’re optimistic the overall market will remain broadly stable and similar to last year’s at a time when foal crops remain relatively

low and demand for juveniles appears to be holding steady.

Last year, a total of 3,447 juveniles went through North American auction rings, up 19% from the previous year’s 2,887 and the most since 2009, when the season offered 3,667 horses. But the larger number of of-

ferings didn’t slow the market’s impressive rise: gross sales increased by a generous 16%, from $158,749,626 for 2,326 horses in 2013 to $183,465,841 for 2,679 horses in 2014. That marked the fourth consecutive year of growth for the public 2-year-old market-place, a welcome climate for the sellers who


MarketWatch / 7

endured the market downturn between 2006 and 2010, when overall gross collapsed by 47%, from a 10-year high of $218,127,764 to $115,076,588.

The 2014 season’s buy-backs ticked up-ward, too, but not alarmingly so. In 2014 the percentage of horses that failed to reach their reserves was 22%, up from 19% a year earlier.

From Maryland to Florida to California, executives at auction houses hosting the sea-son’s big juvenile sales agree that the 2015 market should look much as it did last year, even if the details of the sale calendar do not.

“There’s demand for quality at all levels in the marketplace, whether it’s 2-year-olds in training or weanlings or yearlings or brood-mares,” said Fasig-Tipton president Boyd Browning, whose company hosts its Florida select sale at Gulfstream March 4, the Texas 2-year-olds auction at Lone Star Park in Grand Prairie, Texas, March 31, and the Mid-lantic May auction in Timonium, Md., May 18-19. “I think you’re going to continue to see a real appetite for quality, as we’ve seen in every other marketplace in recent years. I think we’ll see some greater depth to the market as supply and demand continues to be a chal-lenge for people. People need horses, and if they can’t always afford the one that they ab-solutely love, they may pick the one that they really like. Hopefully, you’ll have more horses on people’s short lists as a result of the need for horses.”

The 2015 juvenile auction landscape changed somewhat for the season’s major sales when Keeneland announced it would not host its April 2-year-old auction, a fix-

ture on the major juvenile auction cal-endar since 1993, due to a lack of horses. With its population of owners and trainers on the grounds during the track’s presti-gious spring race meet, Keeneland would have seemed the perfect place to conduct a 2-year-olds in training sale, but since 2009 the catalog had steadily dwindled from 216 to 137 horses, a fact that Keeneland’s chief executive Bill Thomason suggested is part of a wider trend (and doubtless exacerbated

by shrinking overall foal crops).

“The ‘boutique sale’ model has become increasingly dif-ficult,” Thomason said in announcing the April sale’s suspension. “The April sale lacks a critical mass of hors-es, a key factor that makes our September yearling, No-vember breeding stock, and January horses of all ages sales so successful.”

That’s been a common re-frain among some consignors and buyers in the 2-year-old marketplace for several years now: Multi-day auctions are growing in popularity be-cause today’s buyers want larger sale catalogs that give them more horses to choose from and a better chance of finding an affordable animal.

That’s one reason OBS has changed its March sale’s for-mat, expanding the catalog by about 200 horses in an open-style program that will take place March 17-18.

“I think that’s an oppor-tunity to recapture some buyers who maybe skipped March the last few years,” said OBS sales director Tod Wojciechowski. “The in-creased catalog size helps get to that critical mass that buy-ers feel like they can come and find horses that fit their budget, and it allows buyers to spread out over the catalog so they’re not all landing on the same horses.”

OBS’s juvenile sales turned in record performances last year, and they all stay on the calendar in 2015. In addition to the March auction, OBS will conduct its spring sale April 21-25 and a June auc-tion June 16-19. Also in 2015 OBS will use a new under tack show format at its 2015 April and June auctions; that format, which debuted at the 2014 June sale, divides the breeze show into shorter

North American gross sales of 2-year-olds in training increased by 16% in 2014

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Yearling to 2-year-old pinhooks by yearling price decile, 2009-14Horses sold as yearlings and again as 2-year-olds in North America

Decile Min. Price No. Pinhooks Yrlg Avg. 2YO Avg. No.

Profitable Yrlg Gross 2YO Gross Rate of Return

1 $90,000 600 $144,681 $242,325 331 $98,808,500 $138,125,440 40%

2 $60,000 589 $71,000 $133,289 327 $53,599,231 $74,582,125 39%

3 $40,000 727 $47,251 $96,440 377 $48,891,323 $66,606,400 36%

4 $30,000 539 $33,079 $69,989 231 $28,609,811 $35,837,800 25%

5 $22,000 502 $25,035 $61,731 223 $22,607,745 $29,439,455 30%

6 $15,000 715 $17,696 $45,326 265 $26,952,670 $30,787,487 14%

7 $10,000 570 $11,481 $35,487 199 $17,944,123 $19,216,220 7.1%

8 $6,000 484 $7,576 $28,062 158 $13,346,638 $12,902,966 -3.3%

9 $3,000 620 $4,260 $20,452 150 $15,041,063 $12,046,513 -20%

10 $300 535 $1,680 $12,790 74 $11,598,831 $6,500,336 -44%

Total $300 5,881 $37,371 $76,257 2,335 $337,399,936 $426,044,742 26%

TABLE 2


MarketWatch / 8

sessions that take place over more days, in order to allow buyers additional time to examine horses—all accom-modations for buyers at the multi-day auctions.

But not everyone is ready to consign the small, high-end auction to the “out-of-fashion” bin just yet. Ken-tucky-based Fasig-Tipton still hosts its one-day, select Florida auction. The Florida horses that sold were lucra-tive, averaging $284,468 with a $180,000 median. But there were 38 buy-backs and 47 sales, resulting in a 45% buy-back rate, significantly higher than the rate at the OBS March, April, and June sales, at Barretts spring se-lect and May sales, and at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale. Browning says heightened buyer selectivity at sales such as the Florida auction are due not to the sale format but to the closer scrutiny of 2-year-olds in general, from timed and videotaped workouts to more detailed veterinary exams.

The Fasig-Tipton Florida sale this year moves from Frank Stronach’s Adena Springs South near Willis-ton, Fla., to Gulfstream Park, where Browning believes it will benefit from a strong owner and trainer colony and from the track itself.

“People are used to see-ing horses race there and have a really good feel for the surface and the times, and they’ll have a real familiar-ity with buying horses off of a surface they’re accustomed to racing on,” Browning said. “I think there’s an advantage to having a racing surface that’s dirt. The overwhelm-ing majority of graded stakes races that aren’t conducted on turf are now raced on dirt, as opposed to synthetic surfaces. So I think there are definite advantages to pro-spective buyers’ being able to

watch horses perform under tack on a surface that’s very similar to what they’re going to race on.”

California’s Barretts sale company, meanwhile, will

shift its headquarters to the Del Mar Fairgrounds this year after conducting sales at Fairplex Park in Pomona, Calif., since 1990. The com-pany’s final Pomona auction will be its select sale, held this year on Feb. 23 instead of its previous March slot. The May sale on May 27 will launch the Del Mar era.

“We’d always like to have more horses, but we bring to market what we can and try to concentrate on quality,” said Barretts general manag-er Kim Lloyd. “We’ve accom-plished that. Del Mar is a des-tination, and I think it will be very attractive to buyers. I also think it will be attractive to consignors, and I think it will help us a lot. We have no trouble attracting buyers, but it would benefit everybody if we could offer more horses. Our consignors already bring good horses.”

Lloyd noted that Japanese agent Naohiro Goda has in-dicated the groups he repre-sents are excited about the

new venue and that at least one major Florida-based pin-hooker told him the switch to Del Mar will probably increase his consignment there. That’s all good news,

and Lloyd also hopes to see more homegrown Califor-nia pinhookers, especially in light of what he called “the emergence of the Cal-bred” at the 2013 May sale.

“I expect it to be strong like last year, and maybe even a little stronger,” Lloyd said of the overall market.

Pinhookers would wel-come that. The number of pinhooked 2-year-olds has climbed steadily over the last three years from 1,089 in 2012 to 1,466 last year. The overall rate of return for 2013’s pinhooked juveniles (after factoring in a 5% sale commission and $20,000 in upkeep costs for each) was 37%, the highest since the 2009-10 pinhooking sea-son, but it fell to 22% in the 2013-14 pinhook cycle. In a rebounding yearling market, average price jumped from $55,700 to $64,069 in 2013, and median price rose from $21,000 to $25,000—costs that tightened the lid on rate of return at the 2014 juve-

nile sales, even though the pinhooks’ gross returns also climbed. At season’s end, the percentage of profitable pin-hooks fell to 40%, down from 47% in 2013 as yearlings

that cost $94,363,289 grossed $115,451,163 when resold as 2-year-olds of 2014.

Pr ices remained much the same at the 2014 yearling sales, where the market av-erage was $63,324 and median remained $25,000. That’s keep-ing pressure on pin-hookers, who, like the auction houses, see a strong focus on qual-ity that’s reflected in rate-of-return data for pinhooks between 2009 and 2014: Dur-ing those years the highest rates of re-turn, between 36%

and 40%, were logged by juveniles whose average yearl ing purchase pr ice was between $47,000 and $145,000.

Yearling-to-juvenile resell-er Eddie Woods, last season’s second-ranked consignor by gross with 99 juveniles sold for $15,039,500, expressed no surprise that the 2-year-old market overall remains popular with buyers and sell-ers.

“It’s a tremendous mar-ketplace, and the number of good horses that have come out of there is staggering,” Woods said.

He acknowledged that av-erage inventory prices have climbed but believes there’s still value to be found even as the yearling market has strengthened. And his pin-hooking strategy has not var-ied, he said.

“We stayed with our plan: Buy all the quality you could afford,” he said. “Because that’s all that sells at the end of the day.” MW

At OBS April and June, shorter under tack shows spread over more days aim to give buyers more time to inspect horses

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Freshman Sire Preview

MarketWatch / 9

With the 2-year-olds in training sales season commencing this month, attention naturally turns to the newest crop of freshman stallions.

In an attempt to predict which first-crop sires will be represented by high-demand juveniles at public auction and ultimately emerge at the top of the heap at year’s end as a result of their offspring’s accomplishments on the racetrack, MarketWatch sought the impressions of leading 2-year-old consignors for in-sights that reach beyond conventional statistical data.

Early Impressions

| 2YO consignors discuss their favorite new sires |

B Y M I C H A E L C O M P T O N

First-crop juveniles showing promise ahead of sales season

the precociousness of the juveniles in his tutelage by Haynesfield and Uncle Mo.

“We have a couple of them by Haynesfield that we are pretty high on,” Dunne said. “They seem to be nice, big horses with good action. They consistently have size and strength, and they have a good way of going. We have some Uncle Mos that we like as well. They are forward and act like they are going to be very quick. Uncle Mo was such a good 2-year-old himself that it isn’t a shock that he will get early 2-year-olds.”

Nick de Meric also holds the 2-year-olds by Haynesfield and Uncle Mo in high regard and says that Cape Blanco and Tizway de-serve consideration. Cape Blanco ranked fifth among first-crop sires in yearling average—$64,455 from 67 sold—while Tizway’s yearling average of $81,549 from 45 yearlings sold was fourth-best.

“The Haynesfields I have are good-mov-ing, strong, and precocious,” de Meric said. “I have a couple of Cape Blanco colts that I like very much, indeed, and both of them look like they will do turf or dirt. They both get over the ground well and are uncompli-cated horses. They are rugged, have great dispositions, and are good movers over the racetrack. I have some Uncle Mos that I like a lot. Some of mine are more precocious than others right now, but overall, they are an impressive group.”

“I think highly of our Tizways,” de Meric added. “They are attractive, bal-anced horses with good size and great dis-positions. They are very intelligent, and they’re fast learners. I would also mention Trappe Shot, Big Drama (Florida), and even Archarcharch as first-crop sires to watch. I like what I see from their 2-year-olds.”

Another first-crop stallion whose 2-year-olds are commanding attention is Sidney’s Candy, a millionaire son of Candy Ride. His 53 yearlings that sold last year averaged $60,294.

“We have a couple of Sidney’s Candys,” Dunne said. “They are good-moving horses. I’m not sure how quick they will be, but they are very athletic. They don’t strike me that they are going to be the fastest ones here in a month or two, but they seem to have quali-ty that should show when they go long. They look like they will be nice horses.”

Dunne says that when it comes to buying yearlings to pinhook he strives to balance the merits of the individual with consider-ation for the market.

“It’s a combination of both for us,” Dunne said. “When we’re buying, the primary step is the physical. When we short-list, we put

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It should come as little surprise that the f irst-crop sires that recorded the high-est yearling sale averages in 2014 are rep-resented by forward juveniles this year. Trappe Shot led all other first-crop sires by yearling average with 73 head sold, averag-ing a robust $115,712. Now 2, youngsters by the grade II-winning son of Tapit remain in vogue, and consignors are giving them rave reviews.

Also being lauded are the first juveniles by Uncle Mo, who is the only other first-crop sire with a six-figure yearling sale average ($108,642) from 106 sold. Haynesfield, who ranked ninth in yearling average ($55,965) on 53 head sold, is another sire drawing generous praise for his initial crop.

“I like my Uncle Mos and my Trappe Shots, but that’s a very biased statement,”

Niall Brennan said. “I don’t have any other 2-year-olds by freshman sires, so I have nothing else to compare them to in my barn. They were the only two sires that stood out to me (at the year-ling sales) and the only two that seemed to have a lot of them out there. Since they were the leading sires at the sales, it’s no surprise that they are looking nice at this point.”

Ciaran Dunne of Waver-tree Stables, the leading consignor of 2-year-olds in training the last three years, has been struck by


MarketWatch / 10

together a group of horses that we think will work for what we want to do. Then we’ll go back through them and evaluate them based on their pedigree and what we think we can pay. Our rule of thumb when we’re standing there looking at one is: ‘Can we get 21⁄2 times the amount we pay for this one next year?’ If we don’t think we can, it’s a walk-away situ-ation for us.

“The problem with first-season sires is that they are the f lavor of the month, and they kind of creep away from us,” he con-tinued. “Yearlings by first-crop stallions are usually so popular (at the yearling sales) that they fall out of our price range. With Uncle Mo’s yearling average north of $100,000, it’s difficult for me to sit there and think they are all going to bring $250,000 as 2-year-olds. A lot of times we just get priced out of them (as yearlings), and then the mar-ket moves on. Next year there will be a new kid on the block.”

Emphasizing that he shortlists yearlings without preconceived notions inf luencing his decisions, Dunne conceded that he fo-cuses on individuals first and foremost.

“One of the most expensive yearlings we bought last year is by Court Vision,” Dunne said. “If you had asked me before the year-ling sales started if I wanted a Court Vision, I would have told you no. He is a grass horse by Gulch. But the individual ticked all the boxes for us, and nearly $150,000 later we had a Court Vision. I would never have seen that coming.”

Brennan concurs with Dunne on buying philosophy, adding that value is of prime importance when shopping for yearlings destined for the resale market.

First-crop sires by 2013 Comparable Index

Stallion ’13 CI

Uncle Mo 2.56

Misremembered 2.39

Gio Ponti 2.14

Spaniard 2.01

Tizway 1.85

J P’s Gusto 1.84

Girolamo 1.81

Sidney’s Candy 1.79

Trappe Shot 1.75

Cape Blanco (IRE) 1.70

First Dude 1.62

King Puma 1.61

Paddy O’Prado 1.61

Court Vision 1.59

Haynesfield 1.54

First-crop sires by percent of dams that won at 2 (min. 15 dams)

Stallion Dams (%)

Uncle Mo 53 (31%)

Tizway 22 (29%)

Gone Astray 21 (28%)

Sidney’s Candy 25 (28%)

Dublin 19 (25%)

Haynesfield 21 (25%)

American Lion 17 (24%)

Girolamo 22 (24%)

Cape Blanco (IRE) 40 (23%)

Drosselmeyer 20 (21%)

First Dude 21 (21%)

Trappe Shot 20 (20%)

Twirling Candy 19 (20%)

Gio Ponti 21 (19%)

First-crop sires by 2013 Class Performance Index

Stallion ’13 CPI

Misremembered 4.06

Gio Ponti 3.49

Uncle Mo 3.45

Tizway 3.29

Cape Blanco (IRE) 3.20

King Puma 3.20

Girolamo 2.84

Drosselmeyer 2.73

Sidney’s Candy 2.69

Bank Heist 2.54

Twirling Candy 2.53

Spaniard 2.41

Giant Oak 2.34

Trappe Shot 2.31

Haynesfield 2.28

First-crop sires by 2013 N. Hemisphere foals

Stallion ’13 Foals

Cape Blanco (IRE) 173

Uncle Mo 170

Archarcharch 126

Gio Ponti 112

Wilburn 111

Paddy O’Prado 108

First Dude 100

Trappe Shot 100

Drosselmeyer 97

Twirling Candy 94

Girolamo 93

Sidney’s Candy 90

Haynesfield 83

Dublin 75

Tizway 75

“The reason that fresh-man sires can work is that since there are no knocks on them they always give you a chance,” Brennan said. “The Uncle Mos and Trappe Shots going into this year’s sales, if people like them, they are going to buy them because there are no knocks on t hem . T he y h aven’t proved t hat t hey aren’t going to be good sires.

“Proven sires are no -brainers; you just get tied on,” he added. “Most pin-hookers can’t afford to buy t he Tapits a nd t he Wa r Fronts, the top-end sires. Freshman sires have always had an appeal to the pin-hooker because they want to f ind horses that catch their eye that they can af-ford to buy. Historically, freshman sires present that opportunity.”

Br en n a n t abb e d Ne w York-based stallion Here Comes Ben, winner of the 2010 Forego Stakes (gr. I), as an under-the-radar first-crop sire with upside. Acknowledging that the son of Street Cry, with just 24 yearlings sold for an average of $25,604, is not as commercially viable as some other more fashion-

able freshman sires, Brennan is impressed with the development of his 2-year-olds.

“He might just be a dark horse freshman sire,” Brennan said of Here Comes Ben. “He probably doesn’t have the numbers to actually be a leading stallion, but I have a few by him and they are all very nice. I was impressed with the consistency of them at the yearling sales, and I really like the few that I have. I like their maturity and their strength. They all act quite focused on the racetrack.”

Raul Reyes of King’s Equine believes Trappe Shot will be a leading freshman sire, also noting that the offspring of Dublin and Lonhro—who has his first North American crop of 2-year-olds this year—are worth keeping an eye on.

“I am really pleased with the Trappe Shots I have,” Reyes said. “From what I see, his 2-year-olds should be popular. I believe he is going to be a top stallion.”

“The Dublins have nice bodies,” Reyes added. “They are big, strong horses that look versatile, like they will go short or long. I also have a Lonhro colt that I’m very happy with. They sold well last year, and they im-pressed me at the yearling sales. Those turf sires usually get grass horses with high ac-tion, but the one I have looks like he can run on any surface. He’s a nice horse. The Sid-ney’s Candys also look precocious.”

From an end-user’s perspective, trainer Mark Casse, an active buyer of both year-lings and 2-year-olds, much prefers buying horses by first-crop sires as juveniles as op-posed to yearlings.

“Buying a 2-year-old by a freshman sire is a lot less risky than buying a yearling by


MarketWatch / 11

First-crop sires by percent of dams’ runners to win at 2 (min. 40 winners)

Stallion Dams’ 2YO Wnrs (% Rnrs)

First Dude 82 (29%)

Trappe Shot 65 (28%)

Haynesfield 69 (27%)

American Lion 54 (26%)

Big Drama 44 (26%)

Drosselmeyer 75 (26%)

Ice Box 46 (26%)

Gio Ponti 78 (25%)

Sidney’s Candy 64 (25%)

Uncle Mo 104 (25%)

Twirling Candy 57 (24%)

Wilburn 62 (24%)

Archarcharch 75 (23%)

Cape Blanco (IRE) 95 (23%)

First-crop sires by 2014 yearling average

Stallion ’14 Yrlgs Sold ’14 Yrlg Avg. ’14 Yrlg Med.

Trappe Shot 73 $115,712 $85,000

Uncle Mo 106 $108,642 $75,000

Gio Ponti 66 $93,348 $75,000

Tizway 45 $81,549 $50,000

Cape Blanco (IRE) 67 $64,455 $40,000

Drosselmeyer 58 $60,647 $40,000

Sidney’s Candy 51 $60,294 $47,000

Haynesfield 53 $55,965 $47,000

Big Drama 32 $54,203 $27,500

Ice Box 13 $51,654 $23,000

Factum 3 $50,667 $45,000

Giant Oak 11 $48,336 $45,000

Girolamo 32 $43,006 $23,000

Twirling Candy 51 $40,955 $30,000

Telling 10 $38,220 $6,250

First-crop sires by 2014 N. Hemisphere foals

Stallion ’14 Fls (% chg ’13-14 Fls) ’13 Fls

Archarcharch 131 (4.0%) 126

Paddy O’Prado 125 (16%) 108

Tizway 113 (51%) 75

Wilburn 106 (-4.5%) 111

Uncle Mo 99 (-42%) 170

Cape Blanco (IRE) 98 (-43%) 173

First Dude 98 (-2.0%) 100

Trappe Shot 90 (-10%) 100

Regal Ransom 88 (80%) 49

Gio Ponti 87 (-22%) 112

Drosselmeyer 82 (-15%) 97

Court Vision 79 (46%) 54

Gone Astray 79 (6.8%) 74

Sidney’s Candy 79 (-12%) 90

Ice Box 69 (-6.8%) 74

First-crop sires by 2014 mares bred

Stallion ’14 MB (% chg ’13 Fls-’14 MB) ’13 Fls

Uncle Mo 166 (-2.4%) 170

Gio Ponti 154 (38%) 112

Cape Blanco (IRE) 141 (-18%) 173

Tizway 141 (88%) 75

First Dude 132 (32%) 100

Paddy O’Prado 132 (22%) 108

Archarcharch 129 (2.4%) 126

Trappe Shot 122 (22%) 100

Wilburn 122 (10%) 111

Sidney’s Candy 120 (33%) 90

Drosselmeyer 118 (22%) 97

Ice Box 102 (38%) 74

Haynesfield 101 (22%) 83

Courageous Cat 91 (160%) 35

Regal Ransom 88 (80%) 49

a freshman sire (for end-users) because you get to see the product perform,” Casse said. “I have spent some money on yearlings by first-crop sires that by the time I got them into training I was not real happy with my purchases. At 2-year-old sales you get to see performance, so that can eas-ily change your tune.”

Casse is no stranger to success when it comes to gambling on juveniles by first-crop sires. Casse bought graded stakes winners Spring in the Air and Spring Venture as juveniles from Spring At Last’s first crop in 2012 and nabbed Palos Verdes Stakes (gr. II) winner Conquest Two Step at auction from Two Step Salsa’s first crop in 2013.

“I didn’t look at any of Spring At Last’s yearlings that year, but when I got to the 2-year-old sales I saw a filly (Spring in the Air) who really impressed me. She went on to win the Alcibiades (gr. I) for us. The Two Step Salsa colt is another one. I wouldn’t have bought him as a yearling, but watching him perform on the track convinced me.”

Like most everyone else Casse is impressed with the flair of Trappe Shot’s offspring—so much so that he was the un-derbidder on Trappe Shot’s $600,000 yearling colt bought by Juddmonte Farms at last year’s Keeneland September sale. As far as the 2-year-olds in his barn, Casse indicated his charges by Twirling Candy and Gio Ponti are notewor-thy, and he also fancies the Uncle Mos he has seen.

“I like the way that the Twirling Candys move over the racetrack,” Casse said. “And Gio Ponti has a chance to do well. His horses look like they will go on.”

Judging by the ability that their 2-year-olds are exhibit-ing, the 2015 class of freshman stallions appears to be a promising one. Of course, time will tell.

In offering a final assessment of the first-crop sire pic-ture, de Meric declared with conviction, “If three or four of us are hitting on the same stallions, I would say that those are the best young stallions to watch closely.”

If de Meric’s conclusion rings true, it appears that Trappe Shot, Uncle Mo, and Haynesfield are clearly the early favor-ites to get the next chip off the old block and claim the title of leading freshman sire in 2015. MW


MarketWatch / 12

Uncle Mo; 24%

Drosselmeyer; 5.6%

Cape Blanco; 7.1%

Tizway; 7.9%

Gio Ponti; 12%

Trappe Shot; 19%

Sidney’s Candy; 4.0%

Big Drama; 3.2%

Girolamo; 2.4%

Haynesfield; 2.4%

Dublin; 1.6%

Friesan Fire; 1.6%

Ice Box; 1.6%

Paddy O’Prado; 1.6%

Archarcharch; 0.8%

Court Vision; 0.8%

First Dude; 0.8% Giant Oak; 0.8%Regal Ransom; 0.8%

Telling; 0.8% Twirling Candy; 0.8%Victor’s Cry; 0.8%

Sires of first-crop yearlings sold in top decileIncludes 126 first-crop yearlings sold in North America in 2014 for $125,000 or more

Freshman Sires by the Numbers B Y I A N T A P P

A s we look ahead to the group of new sires that will be represented

by progeny at the 2-year-old sales and on the racetrack in 2015, the next eight pages contain charts and tables of the data we know about them to this point.

The pie chart below represents the top 10% of first-crop yearlings (excludes short yearlings) and is essentially a snapshot of how the commercial market ranked each sire’s offerings. Uncle Mo was preferred by a slight margin over

Trappe Shot, with Gio Ponti a clear third. Tizway, Cape Blanco, Drosselmeyer, and Sidney’s Candy were all well represent-ed with top yearlings, though they were clearly in the second tier.

But the yearling market can be wrong. In recent years we can note that Malibu Moon, Not For Love, and Un-usual Heat—all of whom entered stud in regional markets—were not even on the commercial radar with their first yearlings. Each of those sires, however,

currently leads his respective stallion crop by Average Earnings Index (AEI).

Beginning on page 12, we profile each stallion by first-crop yearlings and their dams, including a breakdown of the dams’ level of best race (LOBR) and level of best produce (LOBPr.).

All these data points provide clues as to which freshman sires are best posi-tioned for success. Now, let’s watch as their juveniles sort themselves out at auction and on the racetrack. MW


MarketWatch / 13

< $25,000 $25,000-$49,999 $50,000-$74,999 $75,000-$99,999 $100,000-$199,999 $200,000+

Yearling sales price distribution by sireSires that stood their first season in North America for a fee of $5,000 or more

American Lion Archarcharch

Big Drama Cape Blanco (IRE) Courageous Cat

Court Vision Drosselmeyer

Dublin First Dude

General Quarters Giant Oak Gio Ponti

Girolamo Haynesfield

Here Comes Ben Ice Box

Misremembered Paddy O'Prado Regal Ransom

Sidney's Candy Telling Tizway

Trappe Shot Twirling Candy

Uncle Mo

Yearling Distribution for Sires $5,000+

Wilburn

American LionArcharcharch

Big DramaCape Blanco (IRE)

Courageous CatCourt Vision

DrosselmeyerDublin

First DudeGeneral Quarters

Giant OakGio Ponti

GirolamoHaynesfield

Here Comes BenIce Box

MisrememberedPaddy O’PradoRegal Ransom

Sidney’s CandyTellingTizway

Trappe ShotTwirling Candy

Uncle MoWilburn

Top 20 first-crop yearlings of 2014 by sales price

Sex Sire–Dam (Dam YOB) Sale Price Consignor Buyer

Colt Trappe Shot–Winning Call (1998) KEESEP $600,000 Gainesway Juddmonte Farms

Colt Uncle Mo–Stormy Renee (2005) KEESEP $550,000 Woods Edge Farm M.V. Magnier

Filly Gio Ponti–Shandra Smiles (1998) FTSAUG $500,000 Warrendale Sales John Ferguson

Colt Cape Blanco (IRE)–Belterra (1999) KEESEP $450,000 Four Star Sales Albaugh Family Stables

Colt Gio Ponti–Eltimaas (2007) KEESEP $450,000 Woods Edge Farm Tanma Corp.

Filly Uncle Mo–Erica’s Melody (1999) FTSAUG $450,000 Hill ’n’ Dale Sales Agency Craig Bernick

Colt Tizway–Lady Nichola (2001) FTSAUG $425,000 Taylor Made Sales Agency Matthew Schera

Filly Tizway–Vindy City (2007) FTSAUG $425,000 Woodford Thoroughbreds Whisper Hill Farm

Colt Trappe Shot–Mayhavebeentheone (2000) FTSAUG $400,000 Nursery Place Matthew Schera

Colt Uncle Mo–Eagle Sound (2003) KEESEP $390,000 Paramount Sales Shortleaf Stable

Colt Trappe Shot–Foxy Friend (2001) KEESEP $385,000 Baccari Bloodstock Crupi’s New Castle Farm

Colt Trappe Shot–Songfest (2002) KEESEP $380,000 Four Star Sales Juddmonte Farms

Colt Uncle Mo–Southern Charmer (2006) FTSAUG $375,000 Summerfield Ice Wine Stable & Aisling Duignan

Colt Uncle Mo–Hi Lili (2003) KEESEP $320,000 Denali Stud Conquest Stables

Filly Uncle Mo–Therese (2005) FTSAUG $310,000 Four Star Sales Fox Hill Farm

Colt Drosselmeyer–Queen of Empire (2006) FTSAUG $300,000 Gainesway Alex & JoAnn Lieblong

Colt Trappe Shot–Broad Sound (2001) FTSAUG $300,000 Four Star Sales Alex & JoAnn Lieblong

Colt Trappe Shot–V V S Flawless (1999) KEESEP $300,000 James M. Herbener Jr. Shortleaf Stable

Colt Uncle Mo–Sparkling City (2007) KEESEP $300,000 Baccari Bloodstock Crupi’s New Castle Farm

Colt Drosselmeyer–Early Vintage (2004) KEESEP $280,000 Indian Creek Sallusto & Albina


MarketWatch / 14

First-Crop Stats2012 Fee $5,000

’13 Live Foals 72

’13 CI 1.18

’13 CPI 1.52

Avg. Birth Order of Foals 4.99

Avg. Dam Age First Start 2.69

Avg. Dam Age First Win 2.94

Avg. Dam Start First Win 3.90

% Dams’ Rnrs to Win at 2 26%


’13 Live Foals 70

’13 CI 1.42

’13 CPI 2.06







’13 Live Foals 35

’13 CI 1.49

’13 CPI 2.07







’13 Live Foals 173

’13 CI 1.45

’13 CPI 3.20







’13 Live Foals 54

’13 CI 1.59

’13 CPI 2.22






Yearling StatsNo. Sold 28

Average $58,304

Median $27,500

Maximum Price $230,000

No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 2 (7.1%)

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 4 (14%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 10 (36%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 19 (68%)


Average $32,400

Median $30,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 1 (10%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 8 (80%)


Average $66,900

Median $42,500


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 6 (10%)

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 9 (15%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 22 (37%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 43 (72%)


Average $38,533

Median $26,680


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (5.0%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 4 (20%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 10 (50%)

BIG DRAMA Montbrook—Riveting Drama, by Notebook 2015 Fee $10,000

COURAGEOUS CAT Storm Cat—Tranquility Lake, by Rahy 2015 Fee $6,000

CAPE BLANCO (IRE) Galileo (IRE)—Laurel Delight (GB), by Presidium (GB) 2015 Fee ¥2,500,000

COURT VISION Gulch—Weekend Storm, by Storm Bird 2015 Fee Can$7,500



’13 CI 1.38

’13 CPI 1.77







Average $17,168

Median $12,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 1 (2.7%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 9 (24%)


Average $27,766

Median $17,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (1.2%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 9 (11%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 29 (35%)

AMERICAN LION Tiznow—Storm Tide, by Storm Cat 2015 Fee $5,000

ARCHARCHARCH Arch—Woodman’s Dancer, by Woodman 2015 Fee $9,000

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%G1SWG2/3SWSWSPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%G1SWG2/3SWSWSPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR

0%G1SWG2/3SWSWSPWnrPlRnrUnr

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR



MarketWatch / 15


’13 Live Foals 97

’13 CI 1.45

’13 CPI 2.73







’13 Live Foals 75

’13 CI 1.28

’13 CPI 1.84








’13 CI 1.62

’13 CPI 1.56







’13 Live Foals 43

’13 CI 1.12

’13 CPI 1.19







Average $63,934

Median $40,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 4 (7.5%)

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 7 (13%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 20 (38%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 42 (79%)


Average $43,994

Median $45,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 2 (6.5%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 11 (35%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 17 (55%)


Average $31,642

Median $20,000


No. Top 5%; $170K+

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (3.0%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 5 (15%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 15 (45%)


Average $14,433

Median $10,750


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 1 (8.3%)

DROSSELMEYER Distorted Humor—Golden Ballet, by Moscow Ballet 2015 Fee $15,000

FIRST DUDE Stephen Got Even—Run Sarah Run, by Smart Strike 2015 Fee $7,500

DUBLIN Afleet Alex—Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird 2015 Fee $6,500

GENERAL QUARTERS Sky Mesa—Ecology, by Unbridled’s Song 2015 Fee $5,000


’13 Live Foals 42

’13 CI 1.39

’13 CPI 2.34








’13 CI 2.01

’13 CPI 3.49







Average $53,050

Median $47,500


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 1 (10%)

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (10%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 3 (30%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 6 (60%)


Average $95,684

Median $80,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 8 (14%)

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 15 (26%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 32 (56%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 48 (84%)

GIANT OAK Giant’s Causeway—Crafty Oak, by Crafty Prospector 2015 Fee $7,500

GIO PONTI Tale of the Cat—Chipeta Springs, by Alydar 2015 Fee $15,000

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR

G1SWG2/3SWSWSPWnrPlRnrUnr

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR

G1SWG2/3SWSWSPWnrPlRnrUnr0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR



MarketWatch / 16


’13 Live Foals 93

’13 CI 1.81

’13 CPI 2.84







’13 Live Foals 83

’13 CI 1.55

’13 CPI 2.28







’13 Live Foals 50

’13 CI 1.24

’13 CPI 1.33







’13 Live Foals 38

’13 CI 2.39

’13 CPI 4.06







’13 Live Foals 74

’13 CI 0.97

’13 CPI 1.49








’13 CI 1.61

’13 CPI 2.26







Average $40,007

Median $15,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 2 (6.9%)

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 3 (10%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 5 (17%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 14 (48%)


Average $57,243

Median $49,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 3 (6.0%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 21 (42%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 42 (84%)


Average $26,167

Median $25,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 1 (4.8%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 12 (57%)


Average $24,571

Median $18,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 1 (7.1%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 5 (36%)


Average $53,458

Median $22,500


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 1 (8.3%)

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 2 (17%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 3 (25%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 5 (42%)


Average $26,902

Median $20,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 2 (4.3%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 2 (4.3%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 20 (43%)

GIROLAMO A.P. Indy—Get Lucky, by Mr. Prospector 2015 Fee $5,000

HERE COMES BEN Street Cry (IRE)—Chasetheragingwind, by Dayjur 2015 Fee $7,500

MISREMEMBERED Candy Ride (ARG)—Beyond Perfection, by Quack 2015 Fee $3,500

HAYNESFIELD Speightstown—Nothing Special, by Tejabo 2015 Fee $10,000

ICE BOX Pulpit—Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat 2015 Fee $7,500

PADDY O’PRADO El Prado (IRE)—Fun House, by Prized 2015 Fee $9,500

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR



MarketWatch / 17


’13 Live Foals 49

’13 CI 1.23

’13 CPI 1.45







’13 Live Foals 90

’13 CI 1.91

’13 CPI 2.69







’13 Live Foals 21

’13 CI 1.28

’13 CPI 0.81







’13 Live Foals 75

’13 CI 1.85

’13 CPI 3.29







Average $15,405

Median $4,500


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (4.8%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 1 (4.8%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 3 (14%)


Average $61,636

Median $46,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 2 (4.5%)

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 5 (11%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 15 (34%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 36 (82%)


Average $47,125

Median $16,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 1 (13%)

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (13%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 2 (25%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 3 (38%)


Average $83,481

Median $50,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 5 (12%)

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 10 (23%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 16 (37%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 33 (77%)

REGAL RANSOM Distorted Humor—Kelli’s Ransom, by Red Ransom 2015 Fee $5,000

TELLING A.P. Indy—Well Chosen, by Deputy Minister 2015 Fee $10,000

SIDNEY’S CANDY Candy Ride (ARG)—Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat 2015 Fee $15,000

TIZWAY Tiznow—Bethany, by Dayjur 2015 Fee $15,000



’13 CI 1.75

’13 CPI 2.31







’13 Live Foals 94

’13 CI 1.52

’13 CPI 2.53







Average $125,968

Median $100,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 11 (18%)

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 24 (39%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 46 (74%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 59 (95%)


Average $41,174

Median $32,500


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 1 (2.0%)

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 1 (2.0%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 11 (22%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 31 (62%)

TRAPPE SHOT Tapit—Shopping, by Private Account 2015 Fee $10,000

TWIRLING CANDY Candy Ride (ARG)—House of Danzing, by Chester House 2015 Fee$10,000

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR



MarketWatch / 18



’13 CI 2.49

’13 CPI 3.45








’13 CI 1.23

’13 CPI 1.44


Avg. Dam Age 1st Start 2.83

Avg. Dam Age 1st Win 3.28

Avg. Dam Start 1st Win 5.03



Average $111,663

Median $75,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+ 19 (20%)

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+ 30 (32%)

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 56 (59%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 85 (89%)


Average $23,745

Median $10,000


No. (%) Top 5%; $170K+

No. (%) Top 10%; $125K+

No. (%) Top 25%; $62K+ 6 (12%)

No. (%) Top 50%; $25K+ 15 (31%)

UNCLE MO Indian Charlie—Playa Maya, by Arch 2015 Fee $25,000

WILBURN Bernardini—Moonlight Sonata, by Carson City 2015 Fee $6,500

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


SPWnrPlRnrUnr

Dam LOBPr.

Dam LOBR


Stallion Sire ’12 Fee ’15 Fee’13 NH Fls

’13 CI ’13 CPI’14 NH Fls

’14 CI ’14 CPI ’14 MB

’14 MB CI

’14 MB CPI

’13 Wnlg Med.

(No. Sold)

’14 Yrlg Med.

(No. Sold)

Damsthat Wonat 2 (%)

Dams’ Fls 2YO Wnrs

(%Rnrs)

Dams’ Fls 2YO

SWs (%Rnrs)

Adios Charlie Indian Charlie $3,500 $3,000 23 1.42 2.16 64 1.36 1.16 67 1.10 1.07 $12,000 (3) $17,000 (6) 8 (35%) 27 (33%) 5 (6.1%)

Albertus Maximus Albert the Great 61 1.02 1.48 41 0.86 1.28 47 0.67 0.85 $9,000 (11) 14 (23%) 30 (18%) 2 (1.2%)

American Lion Tiznow $5,000 $5,000 72 1.18 1.52 62 1.28 1.48 55 0.98 1.29 $16,500 (14) $9,500 (44) 24 (33%) 54 (26%) 4 (1.9%)

Archarcharch Arch $10,000 $9,000 126 1.37 1.77 131 1.17 1.85 129 1.11 1.48 $34,500 (20) $18,000 (101) 26 (21%) 75 (23%) 5 (1.5%)

Attempted Humor Distorted Humor 11 1.01 1.21 6 0.44 1.53 7 1.01 1.50 3 (27%) 3 (33%)

Backtalk Smarty Jones $3,500 $3,000 20 0.66 1.50 27 0.83 1.05 16 1.39 1.22 $4,500 (3) 2 (10%) 4 (36%)

Bank Heist Maria’s Mon $2,500 $2,500 11 0.91 2.54 8 1.64 1.90 25 1.06 2.04 1 (9.1%) 2 (18%)

Big Drama Montbrook $10,000 $10,000 70 1.42 2.06 42 1.34 1.70 66 1.26 1.31 $20,000 (5) $27,500 (32) 22 (31%) 44 (26%) 7 (4.1%)

Bold Chieftain Chief Seattle $3,000 20 0.96 1.69 20 1.22 1.74 22 0.76 1.14 $10,750 (2) 10 (50%) 9 (17%) 1 (1.9%)

Bulldogger Dixie Union 12 0.37 0.62 6 0.89 0.76 6 0.21 0.76 $3,850 (4) 1 (8.3%) 8 (33%) 1 (4.2%)

Cape Blanco (IRE) Galileo (IRE) $17,500 173 1.70 3.20 98 2.52 3.88 141 1.10 2.24 $38,000 (17) $40,000 (67) 70 (40%) 95 (23%) 8 (1.9%)

Coast Guard Stormy Atlantic $1,000 $1,000 14 0.54 1.39 8 0.66 1.33 18 0.74 1.09 $6,000 (5) 4 (29%) 14 (27%)

Courageous Cat Storm Cat $10,000 $6,000 35 1.52 2.07 49 1.10 1.87 91 1.04 1.81 $28,000 (2) $30,000 (13) 7 (20%) 14 (15%) 2 (2.2%)

Court Vision Gulch $9,794 54 1.59 2.22 79 1.67 2.32 69 1.86 2.00 $45,000 (3) $23,920 (21) 13 (24%) 26 (22%) 3 (2.5%)

Crown of Thorns Repent $4,000 $2,000 25 1.27 2.19 12 1.18 1.31 27 1.20 1.28 $15,000 (1) $5,000 (10) 10 (40%) 11 (23%) 1 (2.1%)

Custom for Carlos More Than Ready $3,000 $3,500 50 1.09 1.47 40 1.17 1.25 60 1.12 1.78 $13,000 (19) 14 (28%) 27 (18%) 2 (1.3%)

D’ Funnybone D’wildcat $3,500 $2,500 38 1.41 1.70 16 1.00 1.49 20 0.94 1.48 $18,000 (7) $16,000 (13) 9 (24%) 22 (24%) 3 (3.2%)

Drosselmeyer Distorted Humor $17,500 $15,000 97 1.45 2.73 82 1.47 1.79 118 1.72 1.68 $50,000 (25) $40,000 (58) 33 (34%) 75 (26%) 13 (4.6%)

Dublin Afleet Alex $7,500 $6,500 75 1.28 1.84 61 1.15 1.90 62 1.10 1.54 $48,000 (5) $19,000 (38) 26 (35%) 36 (19%) 8 (4.3%)

Due Date El Prado (IRE) $2,000 $2,000 37 0.87 1.01 22 0.79 1.76 32 0.70 1.11 $1,200 (5) 4 (11%) 11 (12%) 1 (1.1%)

E Z’s Gentleman Yankee Gentleman $2,500 $2,500 13 0.87 1.49 17 1.34 1.26 15 1.32 1.11 $8,000 (7) 3 (23%) 1 (9.1%)

Etched Forestry $3,500 $3,500 19 1.05 0.87 9 0.97 0.60 21 0.87 1.25 1 (5.3%) 10 (14%)

Freshman sire statisticsListed below are statistics for stallions whose first crop are 2-year-olds of 2015, with a minimum of 10 foals born in North America in 2013. Listed for each stallion are the 2012 fee on which the current 2-year-olds were bred and the 2015 fee. ’13 Foals is the number of North American foals that are 2-year-olds of 2015; ’13 CI (Comparable Index) and ’13 CPI (Class Performance Index) are based on the mares that produced those foals. ’14 Foals reflects registered foals of 2014; ’14 CI and CPI are based on the dams of those foals. ’14 MB is the number of mares bred in the Northern Hemisphere in 2014; ’14 CI MB and ’14 CPI MB are based on the mares bred. Sale averages are for 2014 and include only North American sales. Dams that Won at 2 (%) refers to the number and percentage of dams of 2013 foals that won as 2-year-olds. Dams’ Fls 2YO Wnrs (%) and Fls 2YO SW (%) refer to the number and percentage of the 2013 dams’ runners that won as a 2-year-old and won a stakes as a 2-year-old, respectively.


MarketWatch / 19



’14 CI ’14 CPI ’14 MB

’14 MB CI

’14 MB CPI

’13 Wnlg Med.

(No. Sold)

’14 Yrlg Med.

(No. Sold)



(%Rnrs)

Dams’ Fls 2YO

SWs (%Rnrs)

Adios Charlie Indian Charlie $3,500 $3,000 23 1.42 2.16 64 1.36 1.16 67 1.10 1.07 $12,000 (3) $17,000 (6) 8 (35%) 27 (33%) 5 (6.1%)

Albertus Maximus Albert the Great 61 1.02 1.48 41 0.86 1.28 47 0.67 0.85 $9,000 (11) 14 (23%) 30 (18%) 2 (1.2%)

American Lion Tiznow $5,000 $5,000 72 1.18 1.52 62 1.28 1.48 55 0.98 1.29 $16,500 (14) $9,500 (44) 24 (33%) 54 (26%) 4 (1.9%)

Archarcharch Arch $10,000 $9,000 126 1.37 1.77 131 1.17 1.85 129 1.11 1.48 $34,500 (20) $18,000 (101) 26 (21%) 75 (23%) 5 (1.5%)

Attempted Humor Distorted Humor 11 1.01 1.21 6 0.44 1.53 7 1.01 1.50 3 (27%) 3 (33%)

Backtalk Smarty Jones $3,500 $3,000 20 0.66 1.50 27 0.83 1.05 16 1.39 1.22 $4,500 (3) 2 (10%) 4 (36%)

Bank Heist Maria’s Mon $2,500 $2,500 11 0.91 2.54 8 1.64 1.90 25 1.06 2.04 1 (9.1%) 2 (18%)

Big Drama Montbrook $10,000 $10,000 70 1.42 2.06 42 1.34 1.70 66 1.26 1.31 $20,000 (5) $27,500 (32) 22 (31%) 44 (26%) 7 (4.1%)

Bold Chieftain Chief Seattle $3,000 20 0.96 1.69 20 1.22 1.74 22 0.76 1.14 $10,750 (2) 10 (50%) 9 (17%) 1 (1.9%)

Bulldogger Dixie Union 12 0.37 0.62 6 0.89 0.76 6 0.21 0.76 $3,850 (4) 1 (8.3%) 8 (33%) 1 (4.2%)

Cape Blanco (IRE) Galileo (IRE) $17,500 173 1.70 3.20 98 2.52 3.88 141 1.10 2.24 $38,000 (17) $40,000 (67) 70 (40%) 95 (23%) 8 (1.9%)

Coast Guard Stormy Atlantic $1,000 $1,000 14 0.54 1.39 8 0.66 1.33 18 0.74 1.09 $6,000 (5) 4 (29%) 14 (27%)

Courageous Cat Storm Cat $10,000 $6,000 35 1.52 2.07 49 1.10 1.87 91 1.04 1.81 $28,000 (2) $30,000 (13) 7 (20%) 14 (15%) 2 (2.2%)

Court Vision Gulch $9,794 54 1.59 2.22 79 1.67 2.32 69 1.86 2.00 $45,000 (3) $23,920 (21) 13 (24%) 26 (22%) 3 (2.5%)

Crown of Thorns Repent $4,000 $2,000 25 1.27 2.19 12 1.18 1.31 27 1.20 1.28 $15,000 (1) $5,000 (10) 10 (40%) 11 (23%) 1 (2.1%)

Custom for Carlos More Than Ready $3,000 $3,500 50 1.09 1.47 40 1.17 1.25 60 1.12 1.78 $13,000 (19) 14 (28%) 27 (18%) 2 (1.3%)

D’ Funnybone D’wildcat $3,500 $2,500 38 1.41 1.70 16 1.00 1.49 20 0.94 1.48 $18,000 (7) $16,000 (13) 9 (24%) 22 (24%) 3 (3.2%)

Drosselmeyer Distorted Humor $17,500 $15,000 97 1.45 2.73 82 1.47 1.79 118 1.72 1.68 $50,000 (25) $40,000 (58) 33 (34%) 75 (26%) 13 (4.6%)

Dublin Afleet Alex $7,500 $6,500 75 1.28 1.84 61 1.15 1.90 62 1.10 1.54 $48,000 (5) $19,000 (38) 26 (35%) 36 (19%) 8 (4.3%)

Due Date El Prado (IRE) $2,000 $2,000 37 0.87 1.01 22 0.79 1.76 32 0.70 1.11 $1,200 (5) 4 (11%) 11 (12%) 1 (1.1%)

E Z’s Gentleman Yankee Gentleman $2,500 $2,500 13 0.87 1.49 17 1.34 1.26 15 1.32 1.11 $8,000 (7) 3 (23%) 1 (9.1%)

Etched Forestry $3,500 $3,500 19 1.05 0.87 9 0.97 0.60 21 0.87 1.25 1 (5.3%) 10 (14%)



’14 CI ’14 CPI ’14 MB

’14 MB CI

’14 MB CPI

’13 Wnlg Med.

(No. Sold)

’14 Yrlg Med.

(No. Sold)



(%Rnrs)

Dams’ Fls 2YO

SWs (%Rnrs)

Euroears Langfuhr $3,000 $2,000 32 0.91 1.60 29 0.54 1.47 47 0.87 1.48 $2,500 (4) $4,200 (3) 12 (38%) 17 (24%) 2 (2.8%)

Everyday Heroes Awesome Again $1,500 $1,500 17 1.03 1.23 12 1.09 0.84 36 1.18 1.29 $6,000 (1) 9 (53%) 9 (18%)

Exhi Maria’s Mon 27 1.31 1.66 8 1.75 1.43 18 1.58 1.50 $4,852 (1) $10,000 (9) 11 (41%) 13 (16%) 7 (8.8%)

Ez Dreamer In Excess (IRE) 14 0.62 1.47 15 1.33 1.63 16 0.97 1.63 $8,250 (6) 5 (36%) 14 (24%) 2 (3.4%)

Factum Storm Cat $10,000 19 1.45 1.48 25 1.11 1.29 60 1.41 1.52 $45,000 (3) 10 (53%) 22 (42%) 5 (9.6%)

First Dude Stephen Got Even $7,500 $7,500 100 1.62 1.56 98 1.48 1.51 132 1.15 1.25 $32,000 (11) $18,000 (40) 26 (26%) 82 (29%) 8 (2.8%)

Friesan Fire A.P. Indy $4,000 $4,000 64 1.23 1.35 43 1.42 1.81 64 1.37 1.69 $30,000 (3) $25,000 (17) 14 (22%) 22 (16%) 1 (0.7%)

Gayego Gilded Time 10 1.07 1.36 34 0.95 1.61 34 0.97 1.35 $22,871 (6) 5 (21%) 2 (8.3%)

General Quarters Sky Mesa $8,500 $5,000 43 1.12 1.19 41 1.05 1.10 51 1.16 1.29 $12,000 (4) $8,500 (17) 5 (12%) 17 (23%) 2 (2.7%)

Get Rich Quick Seeking the Gold $2,500 $5,000 10 0.75 0.97 6 0.66 0.32 9 0.68 1.86 $2,500 (5) 1 (5.6%)

Giant Oak Giant’s Causeway $7,500 $7,500 42 1.38 2.34 27 1.30 2.06 35 0.89 1.75 $17,000 (5) $45,000 (11) 20 (48%) 32 (24%) 6 (4.5%)

Giant Surprise Giant’s Causeway $3,500 $2,500 33 1.21 1.30 12 1.19 1.38 17 1.03 1.53 $11,500 (2) $16,000 (7) 6 (18%) 6 (10%) 1 (1.7%)

Gio Ponti Tale of the Cat $20,000 $15,000 112 2.14 3.49 87 1.48 2.33 154 1.75 2.54 $120,000 (9) $75,000 (66) 32 (29%) 78 (25%) 25 (8.1%)

Girolamo A.P. Indy $15,000 $5,000 93 1.81 2.84 67 1.65 2.33 70 1.58 1.74 $32,500 (10) $23,000 (32) 29 (31%) 63 (21%) 7 (2.3%)

Gone Astray Dixie Union $4,500 $4,500 74 1.02 1.25 79 1.33 1.60 64 1.72 1.83 $15,500 (6) $14,000 (33) 26 (35%) 39 (21%) 4 (2.2%)

Haynesfield Speightstown $10,000 $10,000 83 1.54 2.28 59 1.44 1.74 101 1.61 1.62 $61,000 (12) $47,000 (53) 33 (40%) 69 (27%) 12 (4.7%)

Here Comes Ben Street Cry (IRE) $7,500 $7,500 50 1.24 1.33 33 0.97 1.41 46 1.13 1.40 $19,000 (6) $25,000 (24) 16 (32%) 36 (30%) 3 (2.5%)

Hunt Crossing Corinthian $1,500 $1,500 16 0.88 1.19 36 0.81 0.98 62 0.73 1.02 3 (19%) 6 (26%) 3 (13%)

Ice Box Pulpit $7,500 $7,500 74 0.95 1.49 69 1.03 2.17 102 1.22 2.00 $100,000 (3) $23,000 (13) 23 (31%) 46 (26%) 5 (2.8%)

Indy Express A.P. Indy $1,500 $1,500 17 0.60 0.79 12 0.02 0.85 28 0.37 0.71 2 (12%) 2 (9.5%)

Informed Tiznow $2,500 $2,500 24 0.34 0.99 22 0.68 1.50 33 0.78 2.09 $5,750 (2) 4 (14%)

Interactif Broken Vow $2,000 $2,000 34 1.33 1.44 21 1.13 2.70 14 1.32 1.70 $2,000 (1) $2,200 (13) 12 (35%) 26 (21%) 4 (3.3%)

J P’s Gusto Successful Appeal $3,500 $2,000 30 1.84 1.10 24 0.86 0.74 19 1.27 0.96 $9,000 (3) $8,000 (8) 3 (10%) 30 (38%) 6 (7.6%)

Kennedy A.P. Indy $3,000 $2,000 15 1.19 1.38 17 1.42 1.75 22 1.36 1.89 $4,000 (7) 7 (47%) 9 (23%) 6 (15%)

King Puma Forest Wildcat 11 1.61 3.20 4 1.16 3.77 7 1.42 3.88 4 (36%) 4 (11%)

Misremembered Candy Ride (ARG) $7,500 $3,500 38 2.39 4.06 19 1.73 1.98 31 2.79 6.16 $33,000 (2) $16,000 (16) 21 (55%) 14 (18%) 2 (2.5%)

Native Ruler Elusive Quality $2,000 $2,000 18 0.96 1.39 15 0.83 1.55 20 0.86 1.14 $10,000 (5) 6 (33%) 8 (21%) 1 (2.6%)

Paddy O’Prado El Prado (IRE) $15,000 $9,500 108 1.61 2.26 125 1.43 2.46 132 1.14 1.86 $36,000 (11) $20,000 (53) 28 (26%) 67 (22%) 6 (2.0%)

Proudinsky (GER) Silvano (GER) $2,000 $2,000 15 0.77 1.41 11 1.17 1.59 25 0.95 1.21 $1,700 (1) 4 (27%) 4 (16%)

Rallying Cry War Chant $200 $500 15 0.38 0.60 5 0.58 0.61 12 0.49 0.94 $4,100 (2) 3 (20%)

Recap Storm Cat 18 1.05 1.99 $2,700 (5) 8 (15%) 1 (1.8%)

Reflect Times (JPN) French Deputy $1,000 $1,000 10 0.34 1.46 15 0.51 0.80 4 (40%)

Regal Ransom Distorted Humor $7,500 $5,000 49 1.23 1.45 88 1.02 1.80 88 0.96 1.40 $9,500 (5) $4,500 (21) 12 (24%) 20 (18%) 2 (1.8%)

Schramsberg Storm Cat 29 0.52 1.36 30 0.80 1.77 37 0.81 1.93 $13,458 (4) 13 (45%) 5 (9.1%) 2 (3.6%)

Sidney’s Candy Candy Ride (ARG) $15,000 $15,000 90 1.79 2.69 79 1.82 2.27 120 1.67 1.86 $81,000 (14) $47,000 (51) 38 (42%) 64 (25%) 12 (4.6%)

Sierra Sunset Bertrando $2,500 $2,500 32 0.86 1.99 29 0.81 2.24 32 0.74 2.13 $4,500 (13) 11 (34%) 23 (32%) 1 (1.4%)

Silver Mountain Victory Gallop $2,000 $2,000 19 1.11 1.42 6 0.50 1.83 13 0.99 1.06 $1,350 (2) 3 (16%) 7 (17%)

Slew’s Tiznow Tiznow $2,500 $2,500 22 1.00 1.08 38 1.30 1.56 31 1.10 1.45 $10,000 (4) 7 (32%) 13 (26%) 2 (4.0%)

Society’s Chairman Not Impossible (IRE) 19 1.21 1.47 4 0.63 0.92 $10,120 (13) 8 (42%) 10 (26%) 1 (2.6%)

Spaniard Candy Ride (ARG) $3,428 21 2.01 2.41 13 1.21 2.17 16 1.55 1.62 $10,580 (6) 11 (52%) 31 (36%) 7 (8.1%)

Telling A.P. Indy $6,500 $10,000 21 1.28 0.81 21 1.32 1.20 4 0.63 1.13 $38,000 (1) $6,250 (10) 3 (14%) 14 (33%) 1 (2.4%)

Tiz the One Tiznow $1,500 37 0.97 1.56 29 1.10 1.27 26 1.08 1.29 $2,850 (2) $5,000 (19) 6 (16%) 23 (24%) 1 (1.1%)

Tizway Tiznow $25,000 $15,000 75 1.85 3.29 113 1.47 2.61 141 1.20 1.78 $45,000 (8) $50,000 (45) 34 (45%) 35 (17%) 8 (3.8%)

Trappe Shot Tapit $10,000 $10,000 100 1.75 2.31 90 1.47 1.81 122 1.63 2.01 $66,000 (20) $85,000 (73) 33 (33%) 65 (28%) 3 (1.3%)

Twirling Candy Candy Ride (ARG) $15,000 $10,000 94 1.50 2.53 57 1.45 2.47 85 1.42 1.99 $25,000 (13) $30,000 (51) 26 (28%) 57 (24%) 9 (3.8%)

Uncle Mo Indian Charlie $35,000 $25,000 170 2.56 3.45 99 1.62 2.82 166 1.71 2.56 $110,000 (15) $75,000 (106) 88 (52%) 104 (25%) 30 (7.2%)

Victor’s Cry Street Cry (IRE) 33 1.21 1.64 34 1.15 2.52 30 1.02 2.95 $14,726 (12) 8 (24%) 19 (19%)

Vineyard Haven Lido Palace (CHI) $3,000 $2,000 10 0.87 1.04 12 0.37 1.13 27 1.30 1.10 $6,000 (5) 5 (50%) 3 (13%)

Wilburn Bernardini $6,500 $6,500 111 1.22 1.44 106 1.08 1.39 122 1.13 1.36 $26,000 (18) $12,000 (64) 21 (19%) 62 (24%) 7 (2.7%)

Freshman Sire Statistics (cont’d)

MarketWatch / 20

Unproven Sires

ANN

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B Y A L A N P O R T E R

Guessing Game

Age, if we are fortunate, teaches many things. One of those is humility, and nothing hands out lessons in that

department like the Thoroughbred racehorse. This particu-larly applies with regard to picking winners and losers among unproven stallions. There was a stage when I believed that it was reasonably possible to conclude the prospects of a new stallion by considering his racing performance and pedigree, but time has disabused me of that notion.

In fact, I’ve come to the conclusion that the usual criteria are likely more relevant for stallion promotion than for stal-lion prediction. Having written literally hundreds of stallion ads, I’ve come to appreciate that a stallion ideally needs what songwriters call “the hook,” the catchy line or riff that sells the song. The hook for a stallion prospect might be a defining per-formance (or the suggestion of unfulfilled brilliance), or being by a horse considered to be a “sire of sires,” or coming from a “stallion-producing family.” The collective mind of the market generally perceives these as key factors, but it’s worth examin-

ing how they actually corre-late to success as progenitor.

With larger books leading to a smaller pool of commer-cial stallions, I would suggest that once a stallion achieves a level of performance suf-ficient to become a main-stream Kentucky sire—with rare exceptions having a grade I win or being a very good grade II winner—the narrow talent range renders the differences in racing abil-ity insignificant in terms of sire potential. Or to put it another way, racing class is a major factor discriminating potential mainstream com-

mercial stallions from the population at large but a bad discriminator among those chosen to join the main-stream.

Turning to pedigree, an-other factor that earns a lot of attention with regard to stallion potential is the “sire of sires” factor. My colleague Byron Rogers has argued that the concept of a sire of sires is something of a myth on the grounds that very few outstanding stallions have multiple sons whose stud ca-reers approach that of their famous father.

I take a slightly differ-

Can we pick winners among mainstream sire prospects?

Right or wrong, the market evaluates unproven stallions by race record, pedigree, and looks

MarketWatch / 21

Unproven Sires

ent view, primarily in my definition of what being a sire of sires entails, thinking more in terms of a stallion who has a number of sons that, while not necessarily the equal of their sire, are consistent, reliable begetters of stakes winners.

Storm Cat would be one fitting that definition, although, of course, even he had his disappointments. Still, that’s a long way from what we might call a “non-sire of sires.” A prime ex-ample would be Alydar, whose best sons provided a succession of stud disappointments (in fact, his only son to outperform expectations was California-based grade II winner Benchmark).

From earlier eras, Habitat and Bull Lea come to mind as notoriously bad sires of sires. From such cases we might imply that perhaps some stallions, while excellent sires in their own right, have a tendency to pass on something that inhibits their sons from consistently transmitting their own positive genetic variants for athletic perfor-mance.

Oddly enough, being by a non-commercial or even downright bad stallion doesn’t neces-sarily mean a stallion won’t succeed at stud. Champion sire Vaguely Noble was by a ter-rible stallion in Vienna, and more recently we have Indian Charlie, Tiznow, and Candy Ride, whose respective sires In Excess, Cee’s Tizzy, and Ride the Rails, whatever their merits as stallions, would hardly have been viewed as “sire of sires” material.

If the idea that some stallions are geneti-cally destined to fail as sires of sires is a spec-ulative one, when we consider the “sire-pro-ducing family” hypothesis we are standing on firmer ground as far as molecular science is concerned. The only DNA that is passed consistently via the tail-female line is mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). Since, however, mtDNA is believed to be inherited exclusively from the mother, a stallion does not transmit his own mtDNA to his off-spring.

As a point of interest, there are fewer than 20 unique mtDNA female lines in the Thoroughbred, with the majority of leading commercial sires coming from a far smaller group. Thus, there are any number of great stallions and stud disasters that share identical mtDNA.

It’s probably that the concept of a stallion family is more due to an im-

mediate female line produc-ing two or three high-quality colts that go on to success-ful stud careers. Thus, when Special produces Nureyev, and her daughter, Fair y Bridge, produces Sadler’s Wells, a “stallion family” is born.

With a growing percent-age of horses being bred for the commercial market, looks have also acquired a major role in the marketability of a stallion, and there is no doubt that the really outstanding individual will often quickly build a commercial follow-ing. I wouldn’t question that exceptional looks are a posi-tive asset, but whether there

is much correlation between that and racetrack performance is questionable.

There have been any number of very successful sires that didn’t own the kind of physique in demand by the commercial market, or didn’t sire that type, but that have motivated the market to adjust when their offspring began to run. For a recent example we might reflect on City Zip, whose less than perfect forelegs saw him sell for $9,000 as a short yearling. After making 23 starts in two seasons, City Zip retired to stud in New York. Now standing at Lane’s End for a career high of $40,000, City Zip is coming off a year in which both his daughter Dayatthespa and son Work All Week earned Eclipse Awards.

Overall, it is hard to escape the conclusion that once a stallion has made it into the select group of horses that are able to retire as mainstream commercial stallions, performance, pedigree, and looks cease to be good discriminatory measures.

For example, consider the four sons of Pul-pit that won grade I events on dirt and retired to stud in Kentucky. In addition to being by the same sire, and from female lines that had recently produced successful sires, Tapit, Sky Mesa, Purge, and Corinthian pretty much span the breadth of extremities. Their order of merit as sires is in exact reverse order to their merit as runners, at least as measured by Beyer Speed Figures.

To compound the paradox, Corinthian, who ran a towering 119 Beyer, is from the “stallion family” of Nureyev, Sadler’s Wells, and Fairy King, his third dam, Number, being a three-quarter sister to that trio. It would seem that owning the genetics to be an outstanding run-

ner is a very different matter than own-ing the genetics to transmit that talent.

With that in mind when we turn to the 2015 freshman sires, we are consid-ering a group that will almost certainly contain some surprises, both good and bad. Having come to the conclusion that picking winners and losers prior to their progeny’s racing is fairly futile, we can perhaps consider them in the light of the factors that influence commercial expectations. Also, bear in mind that those factors have already come into play in shaping these young stallions’ destinies, as that perception will have determined the quality of mares bred in early seasons with potential concomi-tant impact on the opportunities the offspring receive. MW

City Zip wasn’t considered a top stud prospect upon retirement but earned his way into the mainstream

Tiznow, despite his unfashionable sire line, has emerged as a top commercial sire

ADAM

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2014 Freshman Sire Recap

MarketWatch / 22

He was still a month away from the sale (he later sold for $275,000 at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga August) but already had great presence. When being shown, he just stood there with all the confidence in the world. People say that good horses always look like good horses, and Blofeld definitely did. It’s not surprising to see that he’s developed into a graded stakes winner who is now on the Kentucky Derby trail.

At this stage Quality Road has done all that’s been asked of him. Given his raw speed and the precocity of his sire line, we were confident his first 2-year-olds would perform well, but he has certainly exceeded our expectations. To sire a winner at Royal Ascot and the Breeders’ Cup who is targeting the English classics, a Triple Crown prospect in the U.S., as well as a Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) contender—the progressive filly Overprepared—is extraordinary.

Quality Road was certainly at his best as he got older, and the strength of his early books leads us to believe more good things lie ahead for him.

B Y I A N T A P PSize and Athleticism

The race for 2014 champion first-crop sire came down to the final week of the year and was settled by a mere

$25,367 as Lane’s End’s Quality Road edged WinStar Farm’s Super Saver. This group of new sires looks particularly strong—the top three were rounded out by the promising Lookin At Lucky, and 12th on the list was Blame, who had the highest fee in the class upon retirement and whose progeny should be better as they mature.

But siring a grade I-winning 2-year-old from your first crop is a windfall for any young sire. Quality Road got Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. IT) winner Hootenanny, whose earn-

ings helped vault his sire ahead of Super Saver late in the year. Super Saver’s sons Competitive Edge and I Spent It had run one-two in the grade I Hopeful Stakes earlier in the year.

Not surprisingly, the stud fees for both sires were increased to $35,000, and both have long been booked full for 2015.

Todd Pletcher, who trained both Quality Road and Super Saver during their racing careers, is having success with their progeny, including Competitive Edge for Super Saver and grade II winner Blofeld for Quality Road. We asked Pletcher what similarities he sees between the sires and their progeny.

“Mainly just their size and length,” Pletcher said of the Quality Roads. “He was a very leggy horse, and it seems like

QUALITY ROAD IN THE WORDS OF LANE’S END

The international market is definitely a focal point for Lane’s End and Quality Road fits that profile. While Quality Road was a superior dirt horse, he is by Elusive Quality, who has sired horses ranging from European champion Elusive Kate to Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Smarty Jones. Fortunately, Quality Road has shown that versatility early on as a sire and it’s been very gratifying.

The early success of Hootenanny, both in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. IT) and the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, is very promising for Quality Road’s future as an international prospect. At Lane’s End we’ve been very fortunate with horses such as Kingmambo that have had success in both America and Europe, and Quality Road is certainly poised to be that type of horse.

Quality Road has had a strong following since his time on the racetrack, particularly because he possessed tremendous speed and was able to carry it over a route of ground. This style of runner is what breeders and buyers are looking for, and it has made him very popular through his first few years at stud.

Physically, Quality Road’s progeny have been equally impressive and very much like him. They have great length and scope, size, and presence—all things buyers look for. They all have Quality Road’s frame, and we’ve found that he complements a lot of mares in that regard.

Hootenanny and dual grade II winner Blofeld are both out of mares from

| Assessing young sires Quality Road, Super Saver |

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the Storm Cat line. This pedigree angle has worked well, but it also makes sense physically, as Storm Cat-line mares typically have strength and substance, and those traits complement Quality Road.

Generally speaking his progeny have been very sound, easy keepers. When the young horses come in on the farm, we’ve found them to be pretty straightforward. Foals and yearlings tend to have one thing or another that requires attention, but for the most part we’ve found the Quality Roads to be easy to be around. They are clever horses that look after themselves. They take their work willingly at every stage and are level-headed whether in the stall or turned out.

Quality Road has been well received as a commercial sire, and his yearlings have always been in demand. He was in the top three by 2013 first-crop yearling average ($109,750 from 72 sold), and his yearling average was actually up in 2014 prior to the graded stakes wins by Hootenanny and Blofeld.

Blofeld was particularly memorable as a yearling.


MarketWatch / 23

SUPER SAVER IN THE WORDS OF WINSTAR FARMSuper Saver is best remembered for

his 21⁄2-length win in the 2010 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), but don’t forget his form as a juvenile. He broke his maiden by seven lengths going a mile at Belmont and capped off his 2-year-old season by setting a stakes record in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs. As a graded stakes-winning juvenile and classic-winning 3-year-old, Super Saver presents an appealing profile for both the owner/breeder and the commercial marketplace. Super Saver’s progeny consistently have sold better at each subsequent stage of their careers. This trait mirrors Super Saver’s own development as a young horse who kept getting better as he got older, peaking in May of his 3-year-old year. In his first crop he had nice weanlings (avg. $61,000 from 22 sold), better yearlings (avg. $100,803 from 65 sold), and exceptional 2-year-olds (avg. $138,452 from 52 sold).

From a physical standpoint, Super Saver is a very easy horse to breed to. He might not appear 16.2 hands tall at first glance, but then again well-balanced horses can be deceptive. He is correct, well proportioned, and hard to knock physically as there are no traits that you have to compensate for. He has a beautiful way of moving—no knee action and a real “daisy cutter” stride in that he barely lifts his front feet off the ground when he walks.

Super Saver’s progeny are also beautifully actioned horses, very efficient and easy on themselves. This action was one thing that became apparent for those watching his first 2-year-olds breeze last year.

Most of Super Saver’s progeny also share his cool, calm, and collected disposition. When Super Saver comes out of his stall, he assumes his pose, drops his head, and sticks out his tongue—something that has become his trademark. This easygoing temperament served him well in training, and he looks to be passing it on to his progeny.

A perceived negative for Super Saver when he retired to stud was that he was by Maria’s Mon and the jury was out on sons of Maria’s Mon at stud. But being that his broodmare sire is A.P. Indy,

and some of that A.P. Indy quality could be seen coming through in him, helped people get past the unproven sire line.

Super Saver’s rich female family gave breeders added confidence. There are eight graded stakes winners under his

first two dams, and his fourth dam is champion 2-year-old filly and blue hen producer Numbered Account—one of the best female families in the stud book. It is likely that his depth of family has helped Super Saver upgrade his mares like he has.

The sire line that initially may have been perceived as a negative has actually turned out to be a positive. Being by Maria’s Mon out of an A.P. Indy mare, Super Saver’s pedigree does not “get in the way” of many mares in terms of close inbreeding. Broad returns of Mr. Prospector, Northern Dancer, and even his own broodmare sire line, Seattle Slew, have worked well.

Given that Super Saver was extremely effective and raced exclusively on a dirt surface, it is no surprise that his progeny have shown an affinity for that surface. The best results of his top performers Competitive Edge and I Spent It have been on dirt, and, in fact, 90% of Super Saver’s progeny earnings have come on dirt.

While Super Saver’s progeny have been effective at 2, we also expected them to follow their sire’s trajectory and excel around two turns at 3. A lot of trainers who have handled his 2-year-olds have told us they feel like there is more to come this year. With Competitive Edge and I Spent It on the Derby trail and Embellish the Lace on the Oaks trail after breaking her maiden by 101⁄4 lengths, we hope it will make for an exciting spring.

a lot of his babies are.“From what I’ve seen, it

seems like (the Quality Roads) don’t want to be what I would describe as early summer 2-year-olds. I didn’t have him as an early 2-year-old, but I know that he broke his maiden on Cigar Mile day (Nov. 29, 2008) at Aqueduct, and the ones that we’ve been around have seemed to f ind their rhythm more so in the fall than in early spring or summer.”

A s genera l ma nager at Spring Hill Farm, the breeding operation of Quality Road’s late breeder and owner Edward P. Evans, Chris Baker was instru-mental in Quality Road’s de-velopment. Baker, who is now chief operating officer at Three Chimneys, noted that Quality Road is noticeably upright in his pasterns and hind leg.

“Being a little straight in the pastern and hind leg is actually a component of speed,” Baker said. “When the foot hits the ground, if the pastern isn’t bur-ied too deep, they’re not losing that energy. Speed is a function of stride rate and stride length, and a slightly upright horse that is breaking his stride over a little faster or pushing off with more direct power from his hind leg can be faster.

“If they’re too straight, then they’re jamming their joints, and they won’t be around long because the concussive forces aren’t being absorbed by the suspensory apparatus. But being a little bit straight, as in the case of Quality Road, it’s a positive—it’s a part of why he was a fast racehorse.”

Quality Road certainly was fast—he won four grade I’s and set track records at 61⁄2 and nine furlongs.

Carrie and Craig Brogden’s Machmer Hall bred three mares to Quality Road in his first season and purchased a weanling Quality Road filly out of Over Andover (by War Chant) at the 2014 Keeneland November sale. That f i l ly,

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Quality Road Super Saver

Oct. 5: Blofeld1st-Futurity Stakes (gr. II)Earnings: $120,000

Aug. 10: I Spent It1st-Toyota Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II)Earnings: $220,000

Sept. 1: Competitive Edge & I Spent It1st and 2nd-Hopeful Stakes (gr. I)Earnings: $280,000

Oct. 31: Hootenanny1st-Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. IT)Earnings: $550,000

Nov. 2: Blofeld1st-Nashua Stakes (gr. II)Earnings: $150,000

Jul 1

2014 progeny earnings for Quality Road and Super Saver, by date

which cost $112,000, is a pinhook that Mach-mer Hall plans to offer back as a yearling.

“I just loved her—it was a little bit out of my comfort zone as far as pinhooking a filly,” Car-rie Brogden said. “Actually, that’s the most ex-pensive filly we’ve ever pinhooked. But I went and looked at her in the field yesterday and thought, ‘Oh, I know why I bought you!’

“(With Quality Roads) I think you have to be careful about the front end sometimes because Elusive Quality can tend to want to throw pigeon-toed horses,” she explained. “But Quality Road throws a lot of size; he throws pretty heads; long, thin necks; and big shoulders like he has.”

Brogden also bred mares to Super Saver but said she would never breed the same mare to Quality Road and Super Saver because the stallions are so different physically.

“When we saw Super Saver off the track, he toed out slightly in one front foot and he was a little lanky, so when we bred to him, we tried to breed more of those big-bodied mares to give him a little more substance,” Brogden

said. “But he tends to throw plenty of leg—not giant hors-es but good-sized horses. He throws a really pretty walk and good balance.

“Super Saver has far sur-passed any expectations that I had. Everyone thought, ‘An-other son of Maria’s Mon… he won the Derby in the slop…’ But obviously at the 2-year-old sales they just stood out. They breezed fast, they looked fast, and they vetted.”

Super Saver’s first 2-year-olds were indeed head-turn-ers at the sales, where in 2014 they generated a higher gross than any other 2-year-old sire except Malibu Moon.

Pletcher, having trained the sire to a win in the 2010 Kentucky Derby Present-ed by Yum! Brands (gr. I), wasn’t surprised to find them so athletic.

“Super Saver to me was a really, really beautiful horse. Well-balanced, not too big but scopey enough,” he said. “I tend to like medium-sized colts, and he kind of fits that mold.

“We see a lot of his ba-bies— Compet it ive Edge probably being the best ex-ample—when you stand back away from them you think, ‘Wow, this horse isn’t that big.’ When you step into them

and put your chin up to his withers, he’s tall-er than you think. He’s just so well-propor-tioned, so well-balanced that they almost give an appearance that they’re smaller than they actually are.”

Ben Glass, bloodstock adviser for Gary and Mary West, hopes Super Saver’s momen-tum continues into his next crop because he purchased a Super Saver colt out of Char-ity Girl (by Pulpit) for $260,000 at last year’s Keeneland September yearling sale.

“My notes say, ‘Very athletic, big walk, good shoulder, good bone,’ so I liked that horse,” Glass said. “I thought he’d be an early 2-year-old, and he’s training well right now in Ocala.”

“I liked the fact that it’s an early-producing sire line,” Glass said of Super Saver’s pros-pects. “He and Maria’s Mon were good early horses, and that’s what we try to buy.

“We like to buy horses that have a license to be good 2-year-olds and develop into good 3-year-olds because we all know that’s where the big bucks are made.” MW

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Blofeld’s win in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) lifted Quality Road’s 2014 progeny earnings above Super Saver’s for good

Competitive Edge won the Sept. 1 Hopeful Stakes to become Super Saver’s first grade I winner

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