Who Are the True Palestinians???

8/6/2019 Who Are the True Palestinians???

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WHO ARE THE TRUE PALESTINIANS?

Today's Palestinians are claiming that they are ancestors of the ancient Philistines and therefore have all right for theLand of Israel, even before us Jews! We'll discuss here about it without going into political debate who has which right/s

and whose right/s are more or less truthful. Our discussionhere will be based only on the historically/archeological proven facts which have to exclude any doubt about itsauthentic origin!!!

So lets start!

-( SEE PARTIAL EXPLANATION BELOW! )-

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(Septuagint phylistieim in the Pentateuch and Josue , elsewhere allophyloi ,"foreigners").

In the Biblical account the Philistines come into prominence as the inhabitants of themaritime plain of Palestine from the time of the Judges onward. They are mentionedin the genealogy of the nations ( Genesis 10:14 ; cf. 1 Chronicles 1:11-12 ), wheretogether with the Caphtorim they are set down as descendants of Mesraim. It isconjectured with probability that they came originally from Crete, sometimesidentified with Caphtor, and that they belonged to a piratical, seafaring people.

They make their first appearance in Biblical history late in the period of the Judges inconnection with the prophesied birth of the hero Samson. The angel appearing toSaraa, wife of Manue of the race of Dan , tells her that, though barren, she shall bear a
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son who "shall begin to deliver Israel from the hands of the Philistines" ( Judges 13:1-5); and we are informed in the same passage that the domination of the Philistinesover Israel had lasted forty years. In the subsequent chapters graphic accounts aregiven of the encounters between Samson and these enemies of his nation who wereencroaching upon Israel's western border.

In the early days of Samuel we find the Philistines trying to make themselves mastersof the interior of Palestine, and in one of the ensuing battles they succeeded incapturing the Ark of the Covenant (1 Samuel 4 ). The coming of a pestilence uponthem, however, induced them to return it, and it remained for many years in the houseof Abinadab in Cariathiarim ( 1 Samuel 5 ; 6; 7).

After Saul became king the Philistines tried to break his power, but wereunsuccessful, chiefly owing to the bravery of Jonathan ( 1 Samuel 13 ; 14). Their

progress was not, however, permanently checked, for we are told ( 1 Samuel 14:52 )that there was a "great war against the Philistines all the days of Saul ", and at the endof the latter's reign we find their army still in possession of the rich plain of Jezraelincluding the city of Bethsan on its eastern border ( 1 Samuel 31:10 ).

They met with a severe defeat, however, early in the reign of David (2 Samuel 5:20-25), who succeeded in reducing them to a state of vassalage ( 2 Samuel 8:1 ). Prior tothis date the power of the Philistines seems to have been concentrated in the hands of the rulers of the cities of Gaza , Ascalon , Azotus (Ashdod), Accaron, and Geth, and a

peculiar title signifying "Lord of the Philistines" was borne by each of these pettykings. The Philistines regained their independence at the end of the reign of David ,

probably about the time of the schism , for we find the Kings of Israel in the ninthcentury endeavouring to wrest from them Gebbethon, a city on the border of themaritime plain ( 1 Kings 15:27 ; 16:15 ). Towards the close of the same century theAssyrian ruler, King Adad-Nirari, placed them under tribute and began the long seriesof Assyrian interference in Philistine affairs. In Amos (1:6, 8) we find a denunciationof the Philistine monarchies as among the independent kingdoms of the time.

During the latter part of the eighth century and during the whole of the seventh thehistory of the Philistines is made up of a continual series of conspiracies, conquests,and rebellions. Their principal foes were the Assyrians on the one side and theEgyptians on the other. In the year of the fall of Samaria (721 B.C.) they becamevassals of Sargon. They rebelled, however, ten years later under the leadership of

Ashdod, but without permanent success. Another attempt was made to shake off theAssyrian yoke at the end of the reign of Sennacherib. In this conflict the PhilistineKing of Accaron, who remained faithful to Sennacherib, was cast into prison by KingEzechias of Juda. The allies who were thus brought together were defeated at Eltekehand the result was the siege of Jerusalem by Sennacherib ( 2 Kings 18 ; 19).Esarhaddon and Asurbanipal in their western campaigns crossed the territory of thePhilistines and held it in subjection, and after the decline of Assyria theencroachments of the Assyrians gave place to those of the Egyptians under theTwenty-sixth Dynasty.

It is probable that the Philistines suffered defeat at the hands of Nabuchodonosor ,

though no record of his conquest of them has been preserved. The old title "Lords of the Philistines" has now disappeared, and the title "King" is bestowed by theAssyrians on the Philistine rulers. The siege of Gaza , which held out againstAlexander the Great, is famous, and we find the Ptolemies and Seleucids frequentlyfighting over Philistine territory. The land finally passed under Roman rule, and its
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cities had subsequently an important history. After the time of the Assyrians thePhilistines cease to be mentioned by this name. Thus Herodotus speaks of the"Arabians" as being in possession of the lower Mediterranean coast in the time of Cambyses. From this it is inferred by some that at that time the Philistines had beensupplanted. In the ebb and flow of warring nations over this land it is more than

probable that they were gradually absorbed and lost their identity.

It is generally supposed that the Philistines adopted in the main the religion andcivilization of the Chanaanites . In 1 Samuel 5:2 , we read: "And the Philistines took the ark of God, and brought it into the temple of Dragon, and set it by Dragon", fromwhich we infer that their chief god was this Semitic deity. The latter appears in theTel el-Amarna Letters and also in the Babylonian inscriptions. At Ascalon likewisethere was a temple dedicated to the Semitic goddess Ishtar, and as the religion of thePhilistines was thus evidently Semitic , so also were probably the other features of their civilization.(This part is taken from the Catholic Encyclopedia)


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Philistine Warriors, The Philistines and other Sea Peoples invaded by sea and weredefeated in a great battle called the Battle of the Delta. The naval battle was alsodepicted on the walls of the Ramesses III's mortuary temple at Medinat Habu. ThePhilistines are the primary enemy of the Israelites throughout the Books of Judges andSamuel and are also mentioned by the prophet Amos: I brought Israel up from the

land of Egypt, but also the Philistines from Caphtor [Crete].

Amos 9:7 (This part is taken from www.cojs.org)|

During his long tenure in the midst of the surrounding political chaos of the Greek Dark Ages , Egypt was beset by foreign invaders (including the so-called Sea Peoples and the Libyans ) and experienced the beginnings of increasing economic difficultiesand internal strife which would eventually lead to the collapse of the TwentiethDynasty. In Year 8 of his reign, the Sea Peoples, including Peleset , Denyen ,Shardana , Meshwesh of the sea, and Tjekker , invaded Egypt by land and sea.Ramesses III defeated them in two great land and sea battles. Although the Egyptianshad a reputation as poor seamen they fought tenaciously. Rameses lined the shoreswith ranks of archers who kept up a continuous volley of arrows into the enemy shipswhen they attempted to land on the banks of the Nile. Then the Egyptian navyattacked using grappling hooks to haul in the enemy ships. In the brutal hand to handfighting which ensued, the Sea People were utterly defeated. The Harris Papyrus state:

As for those who reached my frontier, their seed is not, their heart and their soul arefinished forever and ever. As for those who came forward together on the seas, thefull flame was in front of them at the Nile mouths, while a stockade of lancessurrounded them on the shore, prostrated on the beach, slain, and made into heapsfrom head to tail. [2]

Ramesses III claims that he incorporated the Sea Peoples as subject peoples andsettled them in Southern Canaan, although there is no clear evidence to this effect; the

pharaoh, unable to prevent their gradual arrival in Canaan, may have claimed that itwas his idea to let them reside in this territory. Their presence in Canaan may havecontributed to the formation of new states in this region such as Philistia after thecollapse of the Egyptian Empire in Asia. Ramesses III was also compelled to fight
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invading Libyan tribesmen in two major campaigns in Egypt's Western Delta in hisYear 6 and Year 11 respectively. [3]

The heavy cost of these battles slowly exhausted Egypt's treasury and contributed tothe gradual decline of the Egyptian Empire in Asia. The severity of these difficulties

is stressed by the fact that the first known labor strike in recorded history occurredduring Year 29 of Ramesses III's reign, when the food rations for the Egypt's favouredand elite royal tomb-builders and artisans in the village of Set Maat her imentyWaset (now known as Deir el Medina ), could not be provisioned.(This part is takenfrom Wikipedia)


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We can see that not only by the color of their skin but by their family names which carry father name and second usually from their place or country of origin. So it is commonto find here Arabic people with family names such as: Afgani (originally from Afghanistan, Halabi (from Syria) Tzani (fromYemen), Manya (from Sudan), Elfranaue (from Namibia and Egypt) Elqrinaui (from Jordan) etc Only when PLO(Palestinian Liberation Organization) was created they started for the first time in their existence to use word Palestinian and so on until today to make the false claimabout nation and country who after Exodus never ever became state to any power that ruled here!!!

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The Palestine Liberation Organization is undoubtedly one of the best known terrorist

organizations in the world. Accordingly, the organization is led by perhaps the bestknown individual in the modern history of international terrorism; Yassir Arafat . ThePLO was created in 1964 during a meeting known as the Palestinian Congress in aneffort to give a voice to the large number of Palestinians living in refugee camps inLebanon . It was not long before the group began to splinter into various factions, allof whom believed they knew the best way to achieve Palestinian liberation. Mostnotable of these groups were the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine , Popular Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine , Popular Democratic Front for theLiberation of Palestine - General Command , and al-Fatah . Each of these factionsremained more-or-less under the umbrella of the PLO and never strayed too far fromthe fold.

By 1967 the PLO had decided that their primary goal was the destruction of the stateof Israel. For the next ten years, this goal was the primary focus of the massiveterrorist campaign by which their reputation was formed. This war cost untoldhundreds of casualties on both sides with very little to show in return. Therefore, in1974 the PLO made a conscious decision to alter its focus from the purely terrorist toone that would include political elements, necessary for any meaningful dialogue.This created more unhappiness amongst some followers who felt that the PLO, whilestriking blows, was not truly finding its mark. This led to the creation of yet another splinter group called the Rejectionist Front. It was at this time that Yassir Arafat andhis group al-Fatah took over the leadership role.

Things began to change quickly such as the all-important recognition of the PLO bythe United Nations and by the Arab peoples at the Rabat Conference. Arafat deftlymanipulated the organization from one perceived by the (Western) public as barbaric
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The Population of Palestine Prior to 1948Introduction

The population figures for mandatory and Turkish Palestine are of historicalinterest and figure in many historical debates. The Zionist claim thatPalestine was "a land without a people" is challenged by pro-Palestinianhistorians who cite census figures showing a substantial Palestinian-Arabpopulation by 1914. The Zionists note that most of this increase seems tohave occurred after 1880, when Jews began developing Palestine. Inparticular, Joan Peters ("From Time Immemorial") claimed that a largeproportion of the population increase among Arabs was due to immigration.

Pro-Palestinian historians try to make a case that Zionist settlement hadbegun displacing Palestinians before 1948.

The goal of the present is to examine the claims in the light of thebest available statistical data, without supporting the contentions of either side, and without any intention either to denigrate from thetragedy of Palestinian refugees or to use the data to question Jewishclaims to Palestine. The moral claims of the sides should not dependon percentages of population. In practice, I am aware that the data onthis page have been used to support various partisan claims. That isprecisely the sort of abuse that this material is intended to fight. Themajor conclusion is "The nature of the data do not permit preciseconclusions about the Arab population of Palestine in Ottoman andBritish times" Anyone who pretends otherwise is deliberatelymisleading you. We can reach some general conclusions - Palestinewas not empty when Zionists started arriving, there was some Arabimmigration as well etc. But we cannot give a precise number in anycase, and even if we could, it would not constitute evidence to backany moral claims.

Uncertainties in the data - Debates about the population of Palestineflourish because of the lack of good information and confusion over themeaning of census figures, and the will of partisans to distort history.Census figures of the Ottoman Empire were unreliable. Foreign residentswere not counted, and illegal residents did their best to evade the census,as did people wishing to evade military services and taxes. Thepopulation figures of the British mandate were more reliable, but there wasno published census taken after 1931. Mandatory figures for the periodafter 1931 are based on hospital and immigration records andextrapolation, it seems. Nomadic Bedouin were not counted or undercounted in both Ottoman and British censuses. Those who becamesettled in Palestine would then add to population figures. In studying thepopulation of Palestine between 1800 and 1948, we must keep in mind thatthere was only one agreed-upon reliable census in all that time, which tookplace in 1931. The British census of 1922 was taken in less than settledconditions, and may have undercounted the population. The Ottomanfigures certainly undercounted. The census data of 1922 and 1931 and theestimates based on these censuses have also been challenged but they


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appear to be internally consistent. That is, in the main, the number of people reported by the British mandate in 1922 and 1931 is consistent withthe rates of natural increase that they reported. The numbers given in the1945 survey are about 100,000 or more below what would be expectedbased on the number of refugees and remaining population in 1948.

Uncertainties in infant mortality and underreporting of births would notaccount for all of this discrepancy. It could be due to illegal immigration or in part to settling of nomadic Bedouins in the Palestinian Arab population.

Economics and Immigration - Under the British Mandate, which beganafter WWI, Jewish population increased due to immigration, especially inthe 1930s. Arab population also increased at an exceptional rate.According to records, about 18,000 non-Jews entered Palestine between1930 and 1939 when there were more or less reliable figures. In the sameperiod, about 5,000 non-Jews left. This does not count illegal immigrationof course, or immigration prior to 1930. Economic analyses show that by the

1930s the standard of living of Palestinian Arabs was approximately twicethat of Arabs in surrounding countries, whereas in Ottoman Turkish timesit was lower than in surrounding countries. Some of the farm populationmay have suffered economic hardship, characteristic of any industrializingand urbanizing society, but in the main, the standard of living improved,and it improved much faster than it did in surrounding countries. There isno doubt that this improvement in conditions was an attractant for immigrants as well as resulting in improved health and larger families.Additionally, British activity in building the port of Haifa during the 1920sand in operating it during WW II undoubtedly attracted at least someimmigrants. However, there is no hard evidence that more than 100,000 or

200,000 (out of about 1.3 million in all of Palestine, and about 7-800,000 inthe area that was to become Israel in 1948) Palestinians had immigrated tothe land that was to become Israel. It is impossible to determine at presentwhen this immigration took place. 100,000 Arabs immigrating in 1880would have produced many more descendants by 1948 than 100,000Arabs immigrating in 1930. However, since economic conditions did notimprove until mandatory times, it is unlikely that the bulk of the immigrationoccurred under Turkish administration.

Joan Peters, in her book "From Time Immemorial," argues that most of theincrease in Arab population was in fact due to illegal Arab immigration. Her

figures are not accepted by most demographers and historians, includingZionists. Norman Finkelstein and others have criticized her thesis andshown evidence of poor scholarship. Finkelstein's analysis also shows thatthe largest increases of Palestinian Arab population occurred close toJewish population centers in Palestine, which would argue against thePalestinian contention that the Zionists were dispossessing Arabs. We donot know if this increase was due to population shifts in Palestine or immigration from outside Palestine. It is certain that there was at leastsome illegal Palestinian-Arab immigration, as noted in British mandatoryreports. Immigration from Transjordan was not illegal, and was notrecorded as immigration at all until 1938. Beginning in the 1920s when they

built Haifa port, and especially during and just prior to World War II, theBritish recruited Arab workers from the Houran in Syria and elsewhere.Arabs also came to Palestine before the war, attracted by higher wages.However, since much of the depletion of Palestinian population that hadoccurred in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries was due to migration
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to neighboring countries, many of these returning Arabs may have beenfamilies returning to Palestine.

Refugees - The UN figure for Palestinian Arab refugees that is most oftenquoted by pro-Arab sources is 726,000. This number was later reviseddownward to 711,000 by the UN, but almost nobody pays attention to thechange. On the other hand, pro-Zionist sources like to quote a much lower figure that was contained in an interim report by Ralph Bunche. The711,000 figure may be closest to the truth, but there is no real way of knowing.

About this page - This page is the result of an ongoing analysis. It is notintended to be an exhaustive demographic study. Corrections andadditions are most welcome.

IMPORTANT NOTE

Many of the figures presented on this page must be incorrect, becausethey conflict with other reports. Th purpose of showing these data is toexamine the discrepancies. It is an abuse of the intent of this essay, and itis intellectually dishonest, to post one table or set of figures from this pagein isolation, and to use those numbers to "prove" a political point aboutJewish or Arab rights in Palestine.

Major Conclusions

1. The nature of the data do not permit precise conclusions about theArab population of Palestine in Ottoman and British times , and therelative contributions of natural increase and immigration, imprecision in

the counts and other issues.2. Palestine was not an empty land when Zionist immigration began.The lowest estimates claim there were about 410,000 Arab Muslims andChristians in Palestine in 1893. A Zionist estimate claimed there were over 600,000 Arabs in Palestine. in the 1890s. At this time, the number of Jewish immigrants to Palestine was still negligible by all accounts. It isunlikely that Palestinian immigration prior to this period was due to Zionistdevelopment. Though uncertainty exists concerning the precise numbers of Arabs living in the areas that later became Israel, it is very unlikely that theclaims of Joan Peters that there were less than 100,000 Arabs living thereare valid.

3. Zionist settlement between 1880 and 1948 did not displace or dispossess Palestinians. Every indication is that there was net Arabimmigration into Palestine in this period, and that the economic situation of Palestinian Arabs improved tremendously under the British Mandaterelative to surrounding countries. By 1948, there were approximately 1.35million Arabs and 650,000 Jews living between the Jordan and theMediterranean, more Arabs than had ever lived in Palestine before, andmore Jews than had lived there since Roman times. Analysis of populationby sub-districts shows that Arab population tended to increase the mostbetween 1931 and 1948 in the same areas where there were largeproportions of Jews. Therefore, Zionist immigration did not displace Arabs.For a detailed discussion that focuses on this myth, please refer to Zionismand its Impact.
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4. Historic population data in Palestine during Ottoman times andduring Mandatory times show significant discrepancies. For example,figures reported in Table A-1 for 1930 population of Arabs are about100,000 too low according to census figures for 1931

5. It is not possible to estimate illegal Arab immigration directly, butapparently there was some immigration. The total Arab immigration toPalestine recorded or estimated by the Mandate government was in theneighborhood of 45,000. Illegal immigration that was not recorded wouldnot register in the final population figures for 1945, because those figureswere estimates. We simply do not know how many Arabs and Jews therewere in Palestine before the declaration of the state of Israel. It is probablethat there were about 100,000 Arab immigrants into Palestine. An unknownnumber may also have migrated internally, from the Arab areas in the WestBank that were formerly the centers of commercial activity and populationto the coastal plain and Galilee. The Arab population increase of areas with

large Jewish settlement was about 10% greater than that in areas withoutJewish settlement. This effect cannot be totally separated fromurbanization. A population of approximately 103,000 Bedouin (1922estimate reported in the 1927-1929 reports of the Mandatory) may havebeen excluded or included in different population figures as the authoritiesand demographers saw fit. There is no way to know how many of theseBedouin made a permanent home in Palestine or how many became partof the city population in the course of industrialization between 1922 and1948. However, the evidence indicates that they were in fact included in allthe official population figures. This is shown by the fact that estimates of Muslim population that explicitly do not include Bedouin were significantly

lower than the census figures, and by the fact that population growth isconsistent with figures for natural increase if we assume that the Bedouinwere included.

5. There are large discrepancies between official population figuresand the number of Palestinian refugees - An analysis of population bysubdistricts and villages, using the admittedly incomplete data of thePalestine Remembered Web site, shows that there were about 736,000Muslim and Christian Arabs in the part of Palestine that was to become"Green Line Israel" in 1949. There would not have been more than 620,000refugees in 1949 if these figures are correct, since the Israeli census

showed 156,000 non-Jews living in Palestine in November 1948, of whomabout 14,000 were Druze. The number of refugees reported by UNRWA in1948 was 726,000. It might indicate that an unregistered and illegalpopulation of 100,000 was included in the refugees, or it might be due toserious and systematic undercounting of Arab population by the Mandateauthorities. McCarthy suggests that there was such undercounting, yet hisfigures for the total population of Palestine agree with projections based onofficial figures for 1945.

6. There are serious discrepancies in reporting of the number of refugees. In 1949, UNRWA reported 726,000 refugees. By 1950 they

reported 914,000 according to one source (McCarthy), an increase of 26%that could not come either from births or further displacement of refugees,which were negligible.

7. The city of Jerusalem has had a Jewish majority since about 1896 -The city of Jerusalem itself there was a Jewish majority since about 1896,


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but probably not before. The district of Jerusalem (as opposed to the city)comprised a very wide area in Ottoman and British times, in which therewas a Muslim majority. This included Jericho, Bethlehem and other towns.Within the Jerusalem district, there was a subdistrict of Jerusalem thatincludes many of the immediate suburbs such as Eyn Karem, Beit Zeit etc.

In that subdistrict, the Jews remained a minority , with only about 52,000out of 132,000 persons in 1931 for example.

The major conclusion is "The nature of thedata do not permit precise conclusions aboutthe Arab population of Palestine in Ottomanand British times"

Population of Ottoman Palestine

The population of Ottoman "Palestine" is difficult to estimate, because:

1. There was no administrative district of Palestine. Turkish census figures were for various districts, including the Jerusalem, Acco and Nablus districts for example. The Acredistrict included areas in Lebanon, outside the modern borders of Palestine in which therewere no Jews.

2. Turkish census figures did not include Bedouins (estimated at a few thousand by Turks,but at 100,000 in the British census of 1922) and foreign subjects. A considerableproportion of the Jews retained their foreign nationality (usually Russian) in OttomanPalestine.

3. Both Arabs and Jews avoided the Turkish census. Foreigners who were withoutresidence permits did not want to make their presence known. Arabs and Jews wished toavoid taxes and conscription.

4. In the 19th century, only Muslims were subject to the draft, and accordingly, Muslimstended to avoid the census.

5. According to Justin McCarthy, the census tended to undercount women and children.

6. The Turkish census data were not published regularly, so only partial data are available.

As the data are ambiguous, different sources give different estimates. In particular, Zionistsources may exaggerate the number Jews in earlier years and undercount Arabs, andArab sources According to Bachi, (cited here ) there were there were 489,200 Arabs(Muslims and Christians) in Palestine in 1890 and 42,900 Jews.

According to Beinin and Hajjar the Turkish census for 1878 listed 462,465 Turkish subjectsin the Jerusalem, Nablus and Acre districts: 403,795 Muslims (including Druze), 43,659Christians and 15,011 Jews. In addition, there were at least 10,000 Jews with foreigncitizenship (recent immigrants to the country), and several thousand Muslim Arab nomads(Bedouin) who were not counted as Ottoman subjects.

However, according to the data of Karpat, cited here , in the Ottoman Turkish Census of 1893, there were 371,959 Muslims and 42,689 Christians, for a total of 414,648 ArabPalestinians, and only about 9,000 Jews. The data of Beinin and Hajar probably includesubdistricts of the Acre Sanjak that are in modern Lebanon. Everyone agrees that thenumbers for Jews and Muslims are far too low. Rupin (cited in the same article here )claimed there were a total of 689,275 persons in Palestine in 1893, of whom about 80,000were Jews. This number is probably an overestimate.

According to Justin McCarthy , in 1860, there were 411,000 Arabs in Palestine, in 1890there were 553,000, in 1914 there were 738,000, but in 1918 there were only 689,000. Asthere was no census in several of those years, it is not clear how he draws theseconclusions McCarthy tells us that these numbers have been adjusted for undercountingof women and children, accounting for the differences between McCarthy's figures andcensus data. The drop during the war may have been caused by famine and disease as
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McCarthy claims, but he doesn't note that in 1922, the British census listed only 660,641Arab Palestinians (Christians and Arabs, see table below) nor does he explain the dropfrom 1918. Perhaps the earlier figures include areas of Palestine not included in themandate or other overestimates.

By 1908, according to Dr. Hala Fattah (http://www.jerusalemites.org/jerusalem/ottoman/1.htm ) :

:" when Sultan Abdul-Hamid II's rule collapsed, it was estimated that the Jewishpopulation of Palestine had risen to 80,000, three times its number in 1882, when the firstentry restrictions were imposed." Other estimates put Jewish prewar population as low as40,000 and as high as 100,000.

According to Arjan El Fassed and Lauri Irani (Originally atelectronicintifada.net/historicalmyths/nosuchthing.html and no longer on the Web - 2007)in 1912 there were only 40,000 Jews and 525,000 Arabs in Palestine. However, Beinin andHajjar claim that the "Arab population in 1914 was 683,000. By the outbreak of World War I (1914), the population of Jews in Palestine had risen to about 60,000, about 33,000 of whom were recent settlers."

The war reduced both Arab and Jewish populations to some extent, so that there werevariously, according to different sources, 40,000 to about 80,000 Jews in Palestine.

Comparing some of these numbers is illuminating. The census of 1893 gives a total of 414,648 Arab Palestinians. Table A-1 below lists 469,000 Arabs for 1893 , Bachi claimedthere were 489,000, McCarthy estimated 553,000, and Rupin estimated about 600,000 allfor approximately the same year. Likewise, as noted, there were wide discrepancies for Jews as well. Arjan Fassed and Lauri King Irani (see table below) claimed there were only7,000 Jews in 1870, and 10,000 in 1893 (apparently taking the Jewish population figures,but not the Arab ones from the Turkish census of that year) while Bachi estimated thatthere were about 42,000 Jews in 1893. Hala Fattah claimed about 80,000 Jews in 1908,while table A-1 of Arjan El Fassed and Lauri King Irani listed only 60,000 in 1914.

The data for Arab population estimates are given below. The Census of 1922 is the British

Census of course, while that of 1893 is the Ottoman Census. As we can see frominspection there is no agreement between the numbers. In part this may be because theyrefer to different areas and some include subdistricts that were not part of Palestine after 1918. The origins of these data are not really known. McCarthy's prewar figures areprobably overestimates of Arab population, even assuming great undercounting in theTurkish census.

Table 1: Comparison of different estimates of Arab Population of Ottoman Palestine

Bachi Census Table A-1(Fassed) Rupin McCarthy Beinin &Hajar

1860 411,000 1870 367,2241878 447,0001893 489,000 414,648 469,000 600,000 553,000 1912-14 525,000 738,000

1918 689,000 1922 660,641

To give an idea of the variability and uncertainty in Ottoman data, Table 1-a presentsestimates of population in the Qouds (Jerusalem) district, which comprised about 2/3 of the future area of Palestine

Table 1a: Ottoman population figures for the Qouds District 1

Year 2: 1885 1890 1900 1910Population: 233.2 336.1 3 341.6 382.1
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1. Data are from the statistics compiled by Jan Lahmeyer at the Populstat Web site using various sources.

2. The actual years are given as 1884/5, 1890/1, 1900/1, 1910/1911

3. An average value taken from two estimates by the same source.

It is very unlikely that the population increased by 44% in 5 or 6 years between 1885 and1890, or that in 25 years the population increased 63%

The Areas of Jewish Settlement under the Ottoman empire

The principle arguments center around the population of Arab Palestinians in the areas of Palestine that were eventually included in the state of Israel in 1948. In 1948, it isestimated that these areas included some 800,000 Arabs (there is no certainty about thisfigure either. Joan Peters claimed that the population of these areas was about 92,000 in1893, based on population figures for the seven Turkish subdistricts that approximatelycomprised Palestine in 1948. This would mean that Jews, who numbered perhaps 85,000according to optimistic estimates, might comprise the largest single minority in that area.The origin of these figures is uncertain, since the Turkish census gave 198,000 non-Jewish persons for these sub-districts, probably an underestimate, and Cuinet, a traveler of this period, estimated about 186,000

Table 2: Arab Population of Future Area of Israel in 1893

Peters Cuinet TurkishCensus

92,000 186,000 198,000

If we assume that the initial population was 200,000 in 1893, and that there was a yearlynatural increase of 2.7%, we would reach the figure of 820,000 in 1948, without assumingany immigration at all. Assuming that the Ottoman census undercounted, this is not anunlikely surmise. For all of Palestine, between 1922 and 1931, the census figures for non-Jews, correspond to an annual increase of about 2.9%, while between 1931 and 1948they correspond to an increase of 2.0%. This difference may be due to undercounting inthe 1922 census or errors in the estimate after 1931, or to drops in the actual birthrate.

If we accept Peters' figures, then we would have to assume that the shortfall was made upby an additional immigration of somewhat under 100,000 Arab Palestinians since 1893,some of whom would have had considerable offspring by 1948. However, as YehoshuaPorath has shown ( see note below ) Peters' figures are very unlikely.

Population of Mandatory Palestine

A. Population Growth in Palestine

There were only two censuses taken in Mandatory Palestine, in 1922 and in 1931. Allother figures for population of mandatory Palestine are based on reported births anddeaths and immigration. The Anglo-American survey of 1945 provides valuable additional

data for population in that year, but it too is probably incomplete. Zionists point out thatdata after 1931 do not reflect illegal immigration of Arabs, as well as Jews, while pro-Palestinians believe that the census omitted many Bedouin and understates thePalestinian birthrate. Justin McCarthy asserts that the census of 1922 was donecarelessly, and other Palestinian sources challenge the data from 1931. Unfortunately,there is no way to "correct" the values of a census that was done carelessly and there isno reason to assume a consistent bias in one or another direction. The 1922 and 1931censuses have arbitrary estimates of the number of Bedouin in the Negev. The numberswere not based on actual census questionnaires. Moreover, these Bedouin were notsedentary. They moved between the Sinai, the Negev and what is now Transjordan. Thereis no way to know what percentage of this subpopulation could be said to be permanentresidents of the Negev.

Jewish population during the mandate and immigration - The census of 1922 listed83,790 Jews in Palestine. The census of 1931 listed 174,606. The Anglo-American reportof 1946 listed 608,000 Jews in Palestine. According to the Israel Statistical Abstract, therewere 716,000 Jews recorded in November 1948 and 758,000 recorded at the end of theyear. It is not possible to ascertain the actual number of Jews present at the birth of thestate, but the number given is generally 650,000. Considerably numbers of immigrants
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entered immediately after the state was declared. A net immigration of 216,000 Jews wasrecorded for 1930-1939. According to the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, about483,000 Jews immigrated to Palestine between 1919 and 1948.

Arab population and illegal immigration - The Anglo-American report of 1945 listedabout 1,222,000 Muslim and Christian Arabs in Palestine and 15,000 "others." . Themandatory blue book reports for the 1920s estimated about 25,000 illegal Arab immigrantsin total that were not recorded. The 1937 Mandatory report estimated about 25,000 legalArab immigrants over the entire period.

In addition the report notes:

"5. There has been unrecorded illegal immigration both of Jews and of Arabs in the period since thecensus of 1931, but no estimate of its volume will be possible until the next census is taken."

The data concerning legal immigration of Arabs were also reported occasionally in theannual reports of the Mandatory submitted between 1923 and 1938) but in a haphazardand obscurantist fashion.

The table below summarizes approximate population growth in Mandatory Palestine

Table 3: Approximate population growth in Mandatory Palestine

Year Source TotalMoslems Jews Christians Others

(No.) (%) (No.) (%) (No.) (%) (No.) (%)1922 Census 752,048 589,177 78.34 83,790 11.14 71,464 9.50 7,617 1.01

1931 Census 1,033,314 759,700 73.52 174,606 16.90 88,907 8.60 10,101 0.98

1937 Estimate 1,383,320 875,947 63.32 386,084 27.91 109,769 7.94 11,520 0.83

1945 Survey 2 1,845,560 1,076,780 58.35 608,230 32.96 145,060 7.86 15,490 0.84

1947 1 Projection 1,955,260 1,135,269 58.06 650,000 33.24 153,621 7.86 16370 0.84

1. Figures for Jewish population were estimated to include immigration. 650,000 is theaccepted number. Number of others were estimated based on average rates of increasein 1922-1945. The source http://www.palestineremembered.com/Acre/Maps/Story574.html gives the number 608,250 for 1945 as a revised survey figure and this number is generallyaccepted. However, table A-1 and others list the survey numbers as if they are for 1946rather than 1945.

2. These widely quoted numbers are apparently likewise based on the official estimatesand were not due to a special survey. A copy of the report (abridged) that is on the Webgives only figures for 1944 (not revised for Jewish illegal immigration and of course notrevised for Arab illegal immigration, which has never been estimated). It states:

Population

4. According to official estimates, the population of Palestine grew from 750,000 at thecensus of 1922 to 1,765,000 at the end of 1944. In this period the Jewish part of the

population rose from 84,000 to 554,000, and from 13 to 31 percent of the whole. Three-fourths of this expansion of the Jewish community was accounted for by immigration.Meanwhile the Arabs, though their proportion of the total population was falling, hadincreased by an even greater number-the Moslems alone from 589,000 to 1,061,000.*

It seems likely that the Survey supplement numbers are from 1945, the year when thesurvey was done, and not from 1946 as is often stated. The reason is that in the body of the survey, prepared before these data were available, it gives figures for 1944 as quotedabove. Projecting a birthrate of about 30.7 would give figures larger than the above for 1945, and certainly for 1946.

Table 4: Palestine Mandate: Growth of Non-Jewish population from 1922 - 1937The report of the mandatory for 1937 lists population calculated according to the twocensus and according to estimates of population made based on immigration, emigrationbirths and deaths in intervening years. No allowance is made for illegal immigration in
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these figures. These figures are given in the table below, along with calculated rates of increase for each year.

Year Muslims %

Christians %

Total"Arabs" %

Others % Jews %

1922 589,177 71,464 660,641 7,617 83,790

1923 609,331 3.421 72,090 0.876 681,4213.14

5 7,908 3.820 89,660 7.006

1924 627,660 3.008 74,094 2.780 701,7542.98

4 8,263 4.489 94,945 5.894

1925 641,494 2.204 75,512 1.914 717,0062.17

3 8,507 2.953 121,725 28.206

1926 663,613 3.448 76,467 1.265 740,0803.21

8 8,782 3.233 149,500 22.818

1927 680,725 2.579 77,880 1.848 758,6052.50

3 8,921 1.583 149,789 0.193

1928 695,280 2.138 79,812 2.481 775,0922.17

3 9,203 3.161 151,656 1.246

1929 712,343 2.454 81,776 2.461 794,1192.45

5 9,443 2.608 156,481 3.182

1930 733,149 2.921 84,986 3.925 818,1353.02

4 9,628 1.959 164,796 5.314

1931 753,812 2.818 87,870 3.394 841,6822.87

810,02

4 4.113 172,028 4.388

1932 771,174 2.303 90,624 3.134 861,7982.39

010,28

1 2.564 180,793 5.095

1933 789,980 2.439 95,165 5.011 885,1452.70

910,53

2 2.441 209,207 15.716

1934 807,180 2.177 99,532 4.589 906,7122.43

710,74

6 2.032 253,700 21.267

1935 826,457 2.388 103,371 3.857 929,8282.54

910,89

6 1.396 320,358 26.274

1936 848,342 2.648 106,474 3.002 954,8162.68

711,21

9 2.964 370,483 15.647

1937 875,947 3.254 109,769 3.095 985,7163.23

611,52

0 2.683 386,084 4.211

AverageIncrease 2.680 2.909

2.704 2.800 11.097

The numbers in Table 4, given in the Mandatory report of 1937, are only in approximateagreement with numbers reported by the mandatory for the same years elsewhere. Thedifferences are apparently random. For example, for 1928, the above table lists 79,812Christians, but the 1928 Mandatory report listed only 78,463. On the other hand, themandatory report lists only 753,812 Muslims for 1931, but the census listed a total of about 759,000 or 761,000 (depending on whether you take the Statesman's Yearbookfigures or British mandate figures)

The above series has unexplained fluctuations in annual increase of Christian and Muslimpopulations that could be due to immigration, or to undercounting and padding to makefigures agree with census data, or other errors. For example, in 1933, the number of Christians is shown to increase by over 5% in a single year, an increase that might beaccounted for by immigration. A note in an earlier mandatory report indicates that manyPalestinians who had immigrated to the United States returned because of the severity of the depression. In 1923, the numbers recorded for Muslim Arabs represent a 3.4%increase over the census of the previous year, while those for Christian Arabs representan increase of only 0.876%.


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Population increase versus natural increase - Chapter 4 of the Anglo-American Surveyof 1945 gives the following table for natural increase. As usual when dealing withmandatory data, there are unexplained lacunae:

Table 5: Palestine Mandate: Average Annual Rate of Natural Increase per 1,000

Years Moslems Jews Christians

1922/25 28.27 20.44 20.18

1928/30 26.19 22.70 20.00

1931/35 24.97 20.91 20.85

1936/40 27.68 17.75 20.77

1941/44 30.71 17.83 18.89

The natural "increase" numbers are somewhat suspicious. Beginning with the figures of the 1922 census, and using the natural increase figures to determine the population, we

would have 1,061,464 Muslims in 1944 instead of 1,061,000, a close agreement.However, the Anglo-American survey indicated that there were 19,000 Muslim immigrantsin addition between 1922 and 1944, and presumably some of these immigrants wouldhave had children, so the numbers are about 30,000 below what they should be. Even so,the rates of "natural increase" for 1941-44 are suspiciously high, as though the data were"fixed" to give larger numbers. For Christians, the survey data of 1945 give 145,060, butthe natural increase data would give only about 113,2200, suggesting a net immigration of perhaps 20,000 or 25,000 between 1922 and 1945, plus offspring.

Discrepancies in reported Data

The last year for which we have census data is 1931. The census figures are reporteddifferently in different sources, but the variations are minor. They are in fair agreementwith British Mandatory report data listed in the 1937 Report of the Mandatory for 1931.The Report of the mandatory listed about 753,000 Muslims for 1931, while the censusfigures are quoted as giving 759,000 or 761,000. The data follow approximately from thepublished birthrates. Other estimates of Arab population are somewhat different.McCarthy's figure apparently includes Druze, and the figure in Table A-1 may include onlyMuslims.

Table 6: Estimates of Arab Population of Mandatory Palestine in 1930-31

Census McCarthy Table A-1 1

848,607 860,000 763,000

1 Data are for 1930

Population of Arabs in 1948 Israel and Number of Refugees

The number of Arabs residing in Palestine as citizens in 1948 and consequently thenumber of refugees, is a matter of controversy.

McCarthy (article in Encyclopedia of the Palestinians, Philip Mattar Ed. posted at thePalestine Remembered Web site ) states the following:

Of the 1,358,000 Palestinian Arab citizens of Palestine in 1948, approximately873;600 resided within what would become the Israeli borders, 485,000 without.The Israelis recorded 156,000 non-Jews in 1948, a number that includedperhaps 1,000 non-Arabs, leaving 155,000 Palestinians in Israel. This meansthat 718,000 Palestinians either were refugees or died during the war. Note thatthis number depends on the somewhat imprecise estimation of the numberswho lived on both sides of the border before the war, and so should be taken asa mean estimate. However, statistically it cannot be wrong by more than 5 to 10percent (for other analyses, see Khalidi, 1992; Bachi, 1977).

The above estimates which according to McCarthy "cannot be wrong by more than 5 to 10percent" probably overestimate the population within the area of Israel by about 20% as
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we shall see. The 156,000 "non-Jews" recorded by the Israelis included about 15,000Druze. McCarthy counts these apparently in all statistics though he writes:

" all non-citizens, as well as non-Druze listed along with the Druze under thecategory "Other" in the British data, should be excluded."

If he did not count the Druze, then how else could he report 860,000 Arabs in 1931, whenthe census reported less than 849,000? The extra 10,000 Druze seem to make up thediscrepancy.

The above numbers are based on the assumption of McCarthy that the Mandate figuresfor mortality and fertility were wrong. So he has corrected by "fudge factors." If indeed themandate numbers for fertility and mortality were wrong, the numbers found in the Censusof 1931 would have been very different from the estimates given in previous years. Theywere not.

A confusion has arisen about the number of refugees originally reported by the UN. SomeZionists cite a figure as low as 472,000. That number is an interim estimate, not a finalfigure. It comes from a progress report by UN Mediator Ralph Bunche, published Oct. 18,1948.

The number 726,000 comes from an economic survey final report published Dec. 28,1949, by the UN Conciliation Commission. The document is available in PDF format. Thatis the figure McCarthy used. But In its report A/1367/Rev.1, dated Oct. 23, 1950, the U.N.Conciliation Commission revised the 726,000 estimate down to 711,000. It stated :

15. The estimate of the statistical expert, which the Committee believes to be as accurateas circumstances permit, indicates that the refugees from Israel-controlled territory amountto approximately 711,000. The fact that there is a higher number of relief recipientsappears to be due among other things to duplication of ration cards, addition of personswho have been displaced from areas other than Israel-held areas and of persons who,although not displaced, are destitute.

In fact, there was probably no way to determine precisely how many refugees there were

for the reasons cited above, and because of addition of non-Palestinian Arabs who wherealso destitute and "displaced from areas other than Israel held areas" (or not displaced atall) or persons who "although not displaced, are destitute." There is always a large supplyof persons who are destitute in this part of the world, but that is not related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
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In theory, we could determine thenumber of refugees by taking theoriginal Palestinian Arab populationfigures for 1948, and subtracting fromthem the number of those who

remained in each town in Israel. This isone way for example, in which thenumber of Jewish Holocaust victimswas estimated. However, we do nothave accurate data either for theoriginal 1948 population or for thenumber of persons remaining in eachvillage, town and city. The latter couldbe provided by the Israeli CentralBureau of Statistics. Their claim is thatbased on that type of analysis, therewere about 500,000 refugees, whichseems too low.

Palestine was divided into districts andsubdistricts, and the data of the 1945survey provide population figures bysubdistrict. The population of eachvillage and town is likewise known for 1944. Therefore we can estimate thepopulation of Arabs who were in theareas that eventually formed the Stateof Israel within the borders of the"Green Line" armistice, thoughMcCarthy claims that this is notpossible

A map of the subdistricts used in 1946is shown at right, with the borders of 1948 superimposed (green line), andsome major towns in Red. Palestinehad been redistricted since 1931, sothat the Bethlehem and Jericho districtswere abolished and incorporated intothe Jerusalem district.

By using data of the 1945 (or 1946)survey and multiplying by a factor toallow for population increase in 1945-1948, we can arrive at some estimates

of total Arab (Christian and Muslim)population of Palestine. The total givenin the Anglo-American Survey was1,221,840, of which 1,076,780 wereMuslims and 145,060 were Christians.Assuming a 3% annual growth rate (anoverestimate because it includes boththe Muslim and Christian populations,we would have 1,335,105 in 1948,which is very close to the total figure for all of Palestine given by McCarthy andcan be accepted as correct. However,his estimate of 873,600 for the

population residing within Israel is notnecessarily correct.

Table 7 gives the Arab population of districts that became part of Israel, the number of Arabs (excluding Druze) remaining in Israel at the end of 1948 as given by the IsraelCentral bureau of Statistics and the calculated number of possible refugees. The data can


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only be approximate and we must stress that this is not a full and veridical picture. Thedata are taken from Web pages of the Palestine Remembered Web site. One page givesthe total population of each district according to the Anglo-American survey that was donein 1945 or 1946. However, some districts were not included entirely in Israel. For thesedistricts the population figures listed for each town in 1944 were used, as given inindividual pages at the Palestine Remembered Web site, which are linked from the index

page . Unfortunately, it seems that this site doesn't list all the towns. and we cannot be surethat it is accurate. In the second column are the estimated populations of these districts inmid 1948. These estimates were obtained by multiplying survey data by 109.27%,(1.0927) ( assuming that the data were for 1945 or early 1946, and multiplying the 1944population data for towns by 112.55% (1.1255). These factors represent 3% annualgrowth for 3 years and four years respectively. We cannot know with certainty that thedata presented by the Palestine Remembered Web site for the five districts partiallyincluded in Israel are complete or are intended to be complete. The sum of their figures is120,999. The entire population of the five subdistricts was 527,000 according to the surveydata.

Table 7: Palestine: Estimate of Arab Population and Refugees in 1949 Borders of Israel Population

Subdistrict . 1944/51

19482

Safad 48,940 53,477Acre 62,930 68,764Tiberias 26,410 28,858Beisan 17,340 18,947Nazareth 41,930 45,817Haifa 129,680 141,701Jaffa 113,770 124,316Ramla 101,430 110,833Beersheba 6,480 7,081Gaza 3 59,900 67,417

Hebron3

19,820 22,307Jerusalem 3 24,700 27,800Jenin 3 7,759 8,733Tulkarm 3 8,820 9,927Total 669,909 735,978Arabs in Israel 1948 4 141,500Refugees 5 594,478

Notes

1. 1945 figures are from the Palestine Survey for entiresubdistricts. 1944 figures are the sum of populations of each village and town in partial subdistricts. In some casesthe figures include "other" populations such as Bahai andDruze who did not become refugees in appreciablenumbers.

2. The estimates were arrived by assuming a populationgrowth of 3% per annum, and providing for 3 years of growth for survey figures, and four years of growth for partial subdistricts.

3. These districts were not incorporated into Israel as awhole, and therefore only the population of villages andtowns listed by Palestine Remembered is given. This givesvillages with as few as 20 people. In only a few cases of tiny villages, population was marked "not available."Palestine Remembered has assured me that these figuresare intended to be complete and accurate within reason.However, it has been pointed out that some towns suchas Majdal in Gaza district may not be listed at all.Nonetheless, demographers of the Israel government who
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huge number. If there had been 726,000 refugees in 1948, there would be 841,000 in1953 using a 3% annual growth rate. However, this number would be even smaller if theprobably more accurate estimate of 711,000 refugees is used. It is almost certain thatrefugee figures reflect a constant accretion of fake duplicate ration cards and of personswho "although not displaced, are destitute" - meaning infiltration of locals into the ranks of refugees.

Estimate of Internal Migration of Population in MandatoryPalestinee

The 1931 census, like the 1946 survey, gave the population by subdistricts. Thesesubdistricts were slightly different, since Jerusalem included Jericho and Bethlehem in1946, but not in 1931, and there may have been other minor changes, but for the mostpart we can assume that the districts were similar. Therefore we can arrive at someconclusions regarding the increase in Arab population in different areas that were or werenot settled by Jews.

Table 8: Palestine: Growth of Arab population in Jewish and non-JewishSubdistricts

ubdistrict Total Moslems Jews Christians Others Arabs 1945 Arabs 1931%Arabincrement %Jews

High % of Jewsaffa 409,290 95,980 295,160 17,790 360 113,770 75,713 50 72

Haifa 253,450 95,970 119,020 33,710 4,750 129,680 72,105 80 47erusalem 253,270 104,460 102,520 46,130 160 150,590 105,046 43 40

Tiberias 41,470 23,940 13,640 2,470 1,420 26,410 19,190 38 33Beisan 24,950 16,660 7,590 680 20 17,340 13,173 32 30Ramla 134,030 95,590 31,590 5,840 10 101,430 62,083 63 24Tulkarm 93,2200 76,460 16,180 380 20 76,840 45,662 68 17Nazareth 49,910 30,160 7,980 11,770 ---- 41,930 25,420 65 16

Total 1,259,590 539,220 593,680 118,770 6,740 657,990 418,392 57 47ow % of Jews ("non-Jewish") afad 56,9700 47,310 7,170 1,630 860 48,940 36,035 36 13

Acre 73,600 51,130 3,030 11,800 7,640 62,930 44,846 40 4Gaza 150,540 145,700 3,540 1,300 ---- 147,000 94,213 56 2Hebron 93,120 92,640 300 170 10 92,810 67,496 38 0Ramallah 48,9300 40,520 0 8,410 ---- 48,930 39,061 25 0Nablus 94,600 92,810 0 1,560 230 94,370 68,696 37 0enin 61,2100 60,000 0 1,210 ---- 61,210 41,407 48 0

Beersheba 7,000 6,270 510 210 10 6,480 51,094 -87% 7Total 585,970 536,380 14,550 26,290 8,750 562,670 442,848 27 2

Total 1945 1,845,560 1,075,600 608,230 145,060 15,490 1,220,660 861,240 42 33

As shown in Table 8, areas of Jewish settlement had a growth of 57% in Arab populationbetween 1931 and 1945, while in those with few or no Jewish settlers, the growth of Palestinian Arab population was 27% in that period. Overall, the Palestinian Arabpopulation grew by 42% from 1931 to 1945. Among the urban areas Haifa had thehighest growth rate, probably due to British port activity. There was a shift in populationfrom the south and urban centers to the North. Ramla, Haifa, Tulqarm, Nazareth,Jerusalem and Jaffa had the highest growth rates. Excluding Beersheba district, wherethe census figures show a net loss of Arab population, the total Arab population of thenon-Jewish areas (those with a low percentage of Jewish population) was 56,190 in 1945versus 391,754 in 1931 or 42% more, about the same as the overall average.

Therefore we cannot conclude that Jewish settlement displaced Arabs. Jewish settlementmay have attracted Arabs, so that in the areas that eventually became Israel in allprobability there were more Arabs than there would have been without Jewish settlement.Another explanation is that the urban areas attracted Jewish settlers and Arabs because


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of better standard of living and employment opportunity. Health conditions were probablysomewhat better in these areas as well. Note that Table 8 is not divided according toareas that did or did not become part of Israel. Therefore the data should not be misusedto claim that a large number of Arabs present in Israel in 1948 had migrated from the non-Jewish areas of the West Bank and Gaza. Beersheba district, which became part of Israel,lost about 45,000 Arabs between 1931 and 1945, if we believe the survey.

The importance of the above is that it shows that rather than "dispossessing" or displacingthe Arabs of Palestine, Zionist settlement apparently attracted them. The claim of dispossession is examined in detail in Zionism and its Impact. .

Bedouin Population Statistics in PalestineIn the reports of the Mandatory for 1927, 1928 and 1929 there is a note in the populationstatistics that states:

*No figures are included for the nomadic Bedouin population, whichin 1922 was estimated at 103,000.

No other reports of the Mandatory posted by the United Nations included detailed

population statistics of that type, though summary statistics and immigration were reportedperiodically. This note has given rise to the idea, repeated in several sources, thatBedouin estimated at 100,000 in 1922 were not counted in any of the population data.However, the values for Muslim population given in these three notes in 1927 - 1929 arefar below the 1922 census value of 589,000, and very far below the projected populationgrowth that had to have taken place based on reported birthrates. Table 9 gives theprojections for Muslim population based on the 1922 census and using the birthratespublished in the Palestine Survey of 1946, the projections for Bedouin population usingthe same birthrates, and the difference between the two, which is the projected settledMuslim population. The last column gives the actual reported Muslim population in thoseyears, which is a fair match for the projected figures. This seems to show that the censusdata and other values published as the number of Muslim Arabs in Palestine apparentlyincluded the Bedouin population. At least, we have no reason to think otherwise, and we

have no other explanation for the low figures reported in the 1927-1929 Mandatoryreports.. The total projected figures for Muslim population are about 13,000 below theactual census figures for 1931 which is fair agreement if we allow for migration and for various errors.

Table 9: Reported versus projected values for Muslim population in 1927-1929

Year Projected based on 1922 Census Reported(MandatoryReports)Total Muslim

(1922-589,000)Bedouin

(1922-103,000)Settled(Total-Bedouin)

1927 677,301 118,406 558,895

545,225

1928 692,892 121,132 571,761 557,649

1929 710,824 124,266 586,558 572,443

Using the base of 103,000 Bedouin in 1922 and published birthrate figures for Muslims,there would have been 197,000 Bedouin in Palestine in 1948. This seems unlikely. In fact,in 1931, the district officer of the Beersheba subdistrict, Aref-El-Aref, who later achievedfame for writing a history of Palestine, estimated that there were 51,000 inhabitants in thedistrict, including Bedouin. These numbers were carried forward and multiplied by a"factor" in the successive British population figures, until the Anglo-American survey,which could not find any Bedouin in the Negev, or else didn't look for them. The Bedouinpopulation decreased either because they became settled and absorbed into the rest of the population or because they moved away, or because they had never existed for themost part, and were simply figures fabricated by Aref-El Aref. There is no way to know
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what percent of the 103,000 figure of 1922 were actual residents of the Negev, as theBedouin moved between the Negev, the Sinai and what is now southern Jordan. Theborders imposed by the British and the strict control of the borders, as well as changes inthe economy of the region, worked against the nomadic way of life. Many former NegevBedouin must have remained in the much larger deserts in Sinai and neighboring Jordan,while others migrated north and settled down.

Since the population increase tracks the birthrate only if we include these numbers, thissuggests that the shortfall might have been made up in part by unregistered immigrantswho somehow came to be included in the census. This would be the case, for example,for wives acquired outside Palestine. Alternatively, the shortfall may be explained by thefact that Bedouin became sedentary and came to be included in the yearly counts. Inmodern Israel, nomadic Bedouin population has generally varied from 50-80,000. In anycase, it is hard to see how the existence of uncounted Bedouin would affect Palestinepopulation statistics at different times. Those Bedouin who are not counted in any censusvery probably were not permanent residents of Palestine, and weren't counted either asrefugees, or in the British or Ottoman figures, or in the Israeli figures.

The Population of Jerusalem in Ottoman and British Times

The population of Jerusalem has been a matter of contention because of respectiveJewish and Arab claims to the city. We must be careful to emphasize that the focus mustbe on the population of the city of Jerusalem within municipal boundaries, or of thepopulation of "greater Jerusalem" including the the immediately surrounding Arab villagesand neighborhoods such as Deir Yassin, Lifta, Beit Safafa etc. The population of thedistrict of Jerusalem (approximately corresponding to Qouds in the Ottoman Empire) isirrelevant. The latter included a much wider area that encompassed Jericho, Bethlehemand other separate towns and villages. According to the Anglo-American Survey of 1946,the population of the city of Jerusalem in 1946 was made up as given in Table 10 below.

There was a plurality of Jews in Jerusalem in the late 19th century, but perhaps not amajority. Ottoman census figures underestimated the number of Jews, many of whomremained foreign nationals. However, we can be fairly confident that there has been a

Jewish majority in the municipal boundaries of Jerusalem since before the beginning of the twentieth century.

Table 10 - Population of Jerusalem until 1945

Year Total Muslim Jewish Christian % Jews

1844 1 15,510 5,000 7,120 3,390 45.9

1876 2 25,030 7,560 12,000 5,470 47.9

1896 2 45,420 8,560 28,112 8,748 61.9

1922 3 52,081 13,411 33,971 4,699 65.2

19313

90,451 19,894 51,222 19,335 56.61945 4 164,330 33,680 99,320 31,330 60.4

1. This figure is quoted widely on the Web and is apparently the Ottomancensus figure. It is given for example here .

2. John Oesterreicher and Anne Sinai, eds., Jerusalem, (NY: John Day,1974), p. 1

3. British Mandate Census of 1922 and 1931

4. Anglo American Survey, 1945

In the subdistrict of Jerusalem within the Jerusalem district, the picture is different. The

subdistrict included villages such as Lifta and Ein Karem that might properly belong assuburbs of Jerusalem, but it also included towns that were outside the "greater Jerusalemarea" at least at the time. The subdistrict further included Bethlehem, Jericho andsurroundings, which are scarcely relevant to describing the population of Jerusalemproper. In that whole area there were 132,600 persons in 1931, of which 78,000 were
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Arabs. The 1946 Anglo-American survey found about 150,00 Arabs in the Jerusalemsubdistrict, and about 102,000 Jews.

Ami Isseroff

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APPENDICES - ADDITIONAL PALESTINE DATA TABLES

Some additional tables and notes for mandatory and Ottoman Palestine are below.

The following widely quoted table was supposedly compiled from various sources (seenotes) and appeared in an article by Arjan El Fassad and Lauri King Irani atelectronicintifada.net/historicalmyths/nosuchthing.html (no longer posted) and it had awide circulation in various pro-Palestinian Web sites. It may be that it was deliberatelyconstructed to mislead people. There is no attribution of a particular number to a particular source, and some of the figures conflict with published census data. The footnote that wasappended to the table states, "The numbers in this table are estimates constructed from

the following.." In other words, there is no guarantee that the numbers in the table are thesame as those of the authors cited. Rather, they are "estimates" constructed from thereferences cited, based on criteria that are not stated.

Note added in 2007: These figures are presented to illustrate problems in reporting of population, which are often intentional distortions for propaganda purposes. It is ironic thatpeople have quoted these dubious figures to support nationalist claims.

Table A-1 Estimated Population of Palestine 1870-1946

Attributed to electronicintifada.net/historicalmyths/nosuchthing.html Arjan El Fassed andLauri King Irani

Year Arabs % Jews % Total1870 367,224 98 7,000 2 375,000

1893 469,000 98 10,000 2 497,000

1912 525,000 93 40,000 6 565,000

1920 542,000 90 61,000 10 603,000

1925 598,000 83 120,000 17 719,000

1930 763,000 82 165,000 18 928,000

1935 886,000 71 355,000 29 1,241,000

1940 1,014,000 69 463,000 31 1,478,000

1946 1,237,000 65 608,000 35 1,845,000

* Figures are rounded.Sources: The numbers in this table are estimates constructed from the following: Yehoshua Ben-Arieh,"The Population of the Large Towns in Palestine During the First Eighty Years of the Nineteenth Century,According to Western Sources" in Moshe Ma'oz, ed. Studies on Palestine during the Ottoman Period,Magnus, 1975; Alexander Scholch, "The Demographic Development of Palestine 1850-1882",International Journal of Middle East Studies, XII, 4, November 1985, pp. 485-505; "Palestine",Encyclopedia Britannica, 11th edn, 1911; "Palestine", Encyclopedia of Islam, 1964; UN Document A/AC14/32, 11 November 1947, p.304; Justin McCarthy, "The Population of Ottoman Syria and Iraq, 1878-1914", Asian and African Studies, XV, 1 March 1981; Kemal Karpat, "Ottoman Population Records and theCensus of 1881/82-1893", International Journal of Middle East Studies, XCI, 2, 1978; Bill Farell, "Reviewof Joan Peters", 'From Time Immemorial', Journal of Palestine Studies, 53, Fall 1984, pp. 126-34; WalidKhalidi, From Heaven to Conquest: Readings in Zionism and the Palestine Problem until 1948, Institute forPalestine Studies, 1971 appendix I; Janet L. Abu Lughod, "The Demographic Transformation of Palestine",in Ibrahim Abu Lughod, ed., The Transformation of Palestine: Essays on the Origin and Development of

the Arab-Israeli Conflict, Northwestern University Press, 1971 pp. 139-63.

It must be understood that the figures in the above table are estimates. The figures for"1946" are actually the figures of the 1945 Anglo-American survey report. Therewas no census in most of the years given in the table above, and likewise in the estimates
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given below for Mandate population. However, the estimates for mandatory Palestine are infair agreement. The table gives 1.478 million total population in 1940, while the Esco figuresestimate 1,544,530 for the same year. There is no explanation for the fact that 1930 figuresare larger than the census figures of 1931.

Population Growth Estimates under the Mandate

These estimates are based primarily on the reports of the British Mandate for Palestine and the Mandatory censuses, conducted in 1922 and 1931. All figuresfollowing 1931 are estimates. There was an unknown amount of Arab and Jewishillegal immigration, which could only be estimated by the British authorities.

Source: http://www.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/80859e/80859E05.htm

Table A-2 Population of Palestine, 1922-1942 a,b

Year TotalMoslems Jews Christians Others

(No.) (%) (No.) (%) (No.) (%) (No.) (%)1922Census 752,048 589,177 78.34 83,790 11.14 71,464 9.50 7,617 1.01

1931Census 1,033,314 759,700 73.52 174,606 16.90 88,907 8.60 10,101 0.98

1931 c 1,036,339 761,922 73.52 175,138 16.90 89,134 8 60 10,145 0.98

1932 1,073,827 778,803 72.52 192,137 17.90 92,520 8.61 10,367 0.97

1933 1,140,941 798,506 69.99 234,967 20.59 96,791 8.48 10,677 0.94

1934 1,210,554 814,379 67.27 282,975 23.38 102,407 8.46 10,793 0.89

1935 1,308,112 836,688 63.96 355,157 27.15 105,236 8.04 11,031 0.85

1936 1,366,692 862,730 63.13 384,078 28.10 108,506 7.94 11,378 0.83

1937 1,401,794 883,446 63.02 395,836 28.24 110,869 7.91 11,643 0.83

1938 1,435,285 900,250 62.72 411,222 28.65 111,974 7.80 11,839 0.83

1939 1,501,698 927,133 61.74 445,457 29.66 116,958 7.79 12,150 0.81

1940 1,544,530 947,846 61.37 463,535 30.01 120,587 7.81 12,562 0.81

1941 1,585,500 973,104 61.38 474,102 29.90 125,413 7.91 12,881 0.81

1942 1,620,005 995,292 61.44 484,408 29.90 127,184 7.85 13,121 0.81

Source: Esco Foundation (1947). (seehttp://www.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/80859e/80859E05.htm )a. Exclusive of members of His Majesty's Forces (Great Britain).b. Adapted from table, "Estimated Population of Palestine," Statistical Abstract of Palestine 1943, p. 2.c. The figures for 1931 and following years are as of 31 December of each year.

Table A-3 Recorded immigration and emigration, Palestine, 1930-1939

ar Immigration Emigration Net immigration

Jews Non-Jews Total JewsNon-Jews Total Jews

Non-Jews Total

0 4,944 1,489 6,433 1,679 1,324 3,003 3,265 165 3,430

1 4,075 1,458 5,533 666 680 1,346 3,409 778 4,187

2 9,553 1,736 11,289 x a x x 9,553 1,736 11,289

3 30,327 1,650 31,977 x x x 30,327 1,650 31,977
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4 42,359 1,784 44,143 x x x 42,359 1,784 44,143

5 61,854 2,293 64,147 396 387 783 61,458 1,906 63,364

6 29,727 1,944 31,671 773 405 1,178 28,954 1,539 30,493

7 10,536 1,939 12,475 889 639 1,528 9,647 1,300 10,947

8 12,868 2,395 15,263 1,095 716 1,811 11,773 1,679 13,4529 16,405 2,028 18,433 1,019 977 1,996 15,386 1,051 16,437

al 222,648 18,716 241,364 6,517 5,128 11,645 216,131 13,588 229,719

Source: Esco Foundation (1947). (seehttp://www.unu.edu/unupress/unupbooks/80859e/80859E05.htm a. "x" indicates that emigration was not reported.

The following tables were given in the reports of the Mandatory for the years 1927-1929 for birth and mortality statistics by population group.

Table A- 4: COMPARATIVE TABLE OF BIRTHS AND DEATHS BY RELIGIONSFOR THE YEAR 1927 1

Christians. Moslems. Jews. Others. Total .

*Population ... ... . .. ...

76,839 545,225 147,687 8,618 778,369

Deaths... ... ... ... ... 1,545 18,031 1,987 243 21,806

Deaths per 1,000 of population...

20.1 33.07 13.45 28.19 28.01

Births... ... ... ... ... 2,991 30.586 5,182 434 39,193

Births per 1,000 of population...

38.92 56.09 35.08 50.35 50.35

Deaths of Infantsunder 1 year of age ... ... ...

560 6,631 598 68 7,857

Infantile MortalityRate... ...

187.22 216.79 115.79 153.68 200.46

1 Report of the Mandatory, 1927


Christians. Moslems. Jews. Others. Total .

*Population ... ... . .. ...

78,463 557,649 149,554 8,850 794,516

Deaths... ... ... ... ... 1,486 19,575 1,830 186 23,077


18.93 35.1 12.23 21.01 29.04

Births... ... ... ... ... 3,172 34,011 5,308 404 42,895
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40.42 60.98 35.49 45.64 53.98


499 6,921 514 49 7,983


157.31 203.49 96.83 121.28 186

2. Report of the Mandatory, 1928


Christians. Moslems. Jews. Others. Total.

Population* ... ... ... ... 80,225 572,443 154,330 9,066 816,064

Deaths... ... ... ... ... 1,439 18,133 1,820 242 21,634


17.93 31.67 11.79 26.69 26.51

Births... ... ... ... ... 3,036 33,053 5,257 396 41,742


37.84 57.74 34.06 43.67 51.15


473 6,775 472 66 7,786


155.8 204.97 89.78 166.66 186.52

Natural Increase per 1,000of thepopulation ... ...

19.9 26.06 22.27 16.98 24.64

3. Report of the Mandatory, 1929


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Illegal Immigration in the 1930s

Under the pressures of the Arab revolt, the British government in Palestine reducedimmigration quotas and took stricter measures to control illegal immigrationbeginning in 1938, as well as to curtail Jewish immigration. The excerpt of themandate report of 1938 below shows that in fact, most of the illegal immigrantsapprehended that were reported at different times were not Jewish, but "others." (theentire report of the mandatory is here:

( http://domino.un.org/UNISPAL.NSF/0/cc68bab76ec42e79052565d0006f2df4?OpenDocument target = "n"

36. Jewish immigrants to the number of 12,868 were registered during theyear. Of these, 1,753 were capitalist immigrants whose dependants numbered1,722, 2,537 were students whose maintenance in an approved educationalinstitution is assured, 2,573 were persons coming to employment whosedependants numbered 1,662, and 2,565 were dependants of residents

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