Whither global governance?

1

• FAITH & DOUBT

• HOPE & FEAR

2

Religion and Science• RELIGION & SCIENCE both respond to mystery• *Important questions* lead us to both religion and science

• Paul Tillich, The Dynamics of Faith, p24 (HarperOne 2001):• Doubt “is always present as an element in the structure of faith.”

• Religion: – In spite of all doubts, we have faith

• Science: – In spite of all evidence, we have doubt

• So religion vs. science is *not* about “faith vs. proof”• But faith vs. skepticism

• Science offers no end; religion offers faith

• Both values are important:– Science good for pushing for more progress– Religion good for addressing all of science’s failures 3

Applying our IO lessons to your lives

• In science, we have the luxury of continuous doubt

• In religion, we have the luxury of faith

• In policy-making, there are no luxuries

• You’ll need evidence, skepticism, and faith!

4

Whither Global Governance?

5

One Love

• “Let’s get together to fight this Armageddon so when the man comes there will be no doom”

• Practical lesson: Cooperation results from “Armageddons”

• …hopefully to avoid the next one!

6

1929 vs. 2008http://alltta.wordpress.com/2009/03/05/comparing-the-dow-jones-1929-1930-with-2008-2009/

7

Is this a “Bretton Woods” Moment?

8

Treaty of Versailles (1919–20): League of Nations

Keynes begins discussions on an “international loan”

1918

Stock Market Crash!

World War II (1939-45)

United Nations (1945)

Bretton Woods: IMF/World Bank (1944)

GATT: 1947

Smoot-Hawley (1930) Beggar-thy-neighbor

1944

15 years from crash to institutional solutions…

1929

9

Latin American Debt Crisis (1982)

1980

Tequila Crisis (1995)

2008 Financial Crisis

“Bretton Woods” moment… 2023?...

Or beyond?

East Asian Financial Crisis (1997-1999)

2023?

Lay out architecture now, so we’re ready when it comes…

20081990 2000

10

Think Big aboutGlobal Governance!

11

Regionalism before globalism?

12

Is regionalism our future?Customs Unions: A real sacrifice of sovereignty

Common tariff policy with rest of the world 13

Currency Union: Sacrifice of monetary policy

14

Baby steps

• Asia– Asian Development Bank– ASEAN + 3– Chiang Mai Initiative– Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)

• North America– NAFTA

15

16

Main IO take-away from the class:

Narrow and deep Broad and deep

may be more effective than

Broad and shallow Broad and deep

17

• Think big about global governance changes

• We’re part of an ongoing global conversation

• New multi-polar world

18

Faith… Distributions

And what you’re doing to shape yours…

19

Typical “uniform” or rectangular distribution (histogram)

Fre

quen

cy

Poor Low-income

Lower-middle

Middle Upper-middle

High-income

Rich

20

Typical symmetrical distribution (histogram)F

requ

ency

Poor Low-income

Lower-middle

Middle Upper-middle

High-income

Rich

21

22

INCOME? SUCCESS? HAPPINESS?

23

24

What are you doing in college?

25

Implicit throughout the class

• Theory– Philosophy (from ancient to modern thinkers)– Logic (game theory)

• Empirics– Data (qualitative, quantitative)

• History• Statistics

26

To understand international relations

You need

a broad liberal arts education

27

Undergraduate education & the 3 r’s

• readin’

• ’ritin’

• ’rithmetic

• Broad education…

28

Skills

• Become well-read

• Learn to write well

• Learn statistics

• Learn a foreign language (fluent!)

29

Breadth of undergraduate education & life opportunities

Breadth of undergraduate education

Life

opp

ortu

nitie

s

30

Graduate school is different (not harder)

• Fewer hours in class, more hours studying

• Greater opportunity costs

• Grades not important

• Be focused!

• Statement of purpose

31

Writing• First sentence – most important!

• Organize your argument into sections– What is the question?– What is your answer (or what is the debate)?– What is your methodology?– What is your evidence?– Why should we care?

• Lay this out in the 1st para

• Return to each in its own section (paper outline):1. Background literature2. Your theory/argument3. Method4. Evidence5. The intro/conclusion should answer the “so what” question 32

Relationships

• Letter of recommendation

• Network of friends– @ Georgetown– Amazing

33

Next step:

• “What are you going to do when you graduate?”=• “How are you doing?”=• “Hello”

• I.e., well intentioned but vacuous question

• Don’t let it bring you down!

• No one knows @ 22 what life will present them

34

What do we know?

35

Distribution of opportunities before education

36

Distribution of opportunities after education

37

You have bright futures

38

YOU ARE GEORGETOWN!

• Privilege

• Thank you

39

Thank youWE ARE GLOBAL GEORGETOWN!

40