Whither Demand? - Growth In Prospect
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Whither Demand? - Growth In Prospect
Roger Lee
Tecnon OrbiChem Marketing Seminar at APIC 2015
Seoul, 7 May 2015
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-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Actual
Forecast 2008
Current Forecast
% AAGR
APIC 2015
WORLD GDP GROWTH 1995-2020
Source: World Bank & Probe Economics
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20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Actual
2008 Forecast
Current Forecast
APIC 2015
WORLD GDP GROWTH 1995-2020
(Billion Constant 2000 Dollars)
Source: World Bank & Probe Economics
![Page 4: Whither Demand? - Growth In Prospect](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032513/55d2e14fbb61eb13168b45ba/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: World Bank & Probe Economics
APIC 2015
WORLD GDP GROWTH BY REGION 1995-2007
(Billion Constant 2005 Dollars)
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-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
World
Source: World Bank & Probe Economics
APIC 2015
WORLD GDP GROWTH BY REGION 2008-2014
(Billion Constant 2005 Dollars)
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
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0
1
2
3
4
5
25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
Phthalic Anhydride
Orthoxylene
Acrylic Acid
Adipic Acid
Adiponitrile
Maleic Anhydride
Consumption (Million Tons)
APIC 2015
WORLD PETROCHEMICAL CONSUMPTION vs GDP1995-2007 & 2008-2014
GDP (Billion 2000 $)
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
2008-2014
1995 -2007
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0
10
20
30
40
50
25000 30000 35000 40000 45000
VCM
PTA
Paraxylene
MEG
Acetic Acid
Caprolactam
Consumption (Million Tons)
APIC 2015
WORLD PETROCHEMICAL CONSUMPTION vs GDP1995-2007 & 2008-2014
GDP (Billion 2000 $)
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
2008-2014
1995 -2007
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD PHTHALIC ANHYDRIDE CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD ADIPIC ACID CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD ACRYLIC ACID CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD MALEIC ANHYDRIDE CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
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0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD VCM CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
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0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD PARAXYLENE CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
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0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD MONOETHYLENE GLYCOL CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD CAPROLACTAM CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
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0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2008 Forecast
North America
South America
West Europe
East Europe
ME & Africa
S & SE Asia
Northeast Asia
China
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
APIC 2015
WORLD ACETIC ACID CONSUMPTION
Million Tons
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APIC 2015
GDP vs CONSUMPTION GROWTH SHARE 1995-2007
Source: World Bank, Probe Economics & Tecnon OrbiChem
GD
P
Male
ic A
nhydrid
e
Adip
icA
cid
Capro
lacta
m
Phth
alic
Anhydrid
e
Acry
lic Acid
Ace
tic Acid
Para
xyle
ne
MEG
VCM
N & S America 35% 13% 19% -6% -1% 20% 6% 4% 3% 15%
Europe 29% 5% 30% 6% -10% 18% 12% 3% 5% 12%
ME & Africa 8% 10% 3% -2% 12% 4% 2% 3% 3% 1%
S & SE Asia 9% 5% 5% 5% 15% 8% 16% 26% 18% 13%
Northeast Asia 7% 5% 8% 32% 0% 14% 17% 23% 3% 5%
China 12% 62% 36% 65% 85% 36% 47% 41% 68% 54%
Asia 29% 71% 49% 102% 99% 58% 80% 90% 88% 72%
World 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
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APIC 2015
GDP vs CONSUMPTION GROWTH SHARE 2008-2014
Source: World Bank, Probe Economics & Tecnon OrbiChem
GD
P
Male
ic A
nhydrid
e
Adip
icA
cid
Capro
lacta
m
Phth
alic
Anhydrid
e
Acry
lic Acid
Ace
tic Acid
Para
xyle
ne
MEG
VCM
N & S America 27% 10% -402% -12% -12% 9% 7% 4% 6% 12%
Europe 4% -1% -196% 18% -32% 1% -11% 7% 4% -8%
ME & Africa 11% 7% 15% 0% 13% 9% 9% 1% 8% 9%
S & SE Asia 19% 6% 66% 3% 29% 9% 18% 4% 13% 4%
Northeast Asia 6% -14% 72% -5% -38% 20% 2% -24% 1% 0%
China 32% 93% 545% 96% 141% 52% 74% 108% 68% 83%
Asia 57% 84% 683% 94% 132% 81% 94% 88% 83% 87%
World 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
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APIC 2015
CONCLUSIONS
• GDP growth stalled for 3 years as a result of the 2008 financial crisis.
• World GDP growth is still at least 0.5% below that forecast in early 2008.
• Two thirds of global GDP growth since 2008 has been in the world outside the Americas and Europe, compared with one third beforehand.
• Following the 2007-2009 hiatus, many petrochemicals have resumed growth at or above previous GDP multipliers, but some have not.
• For the products considered here, over 80% of consumption growth since 2008 has been in Asia. For some products the proportion is much higher.
• Europe has suffered most, contributing only 4% to global GDP and recording losses in most categories of consumption growth since 2008.
• With China entering a ‘New Normal’ period of lower growth, Europe struggling to recover and crude oil price uncertainty putting a damper on investment, it is difficult to see a return to pre-crisis spending levels occurring any time soon.
Source: Tecnon OrbiChem
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