Whither California?

Russell Hancock4 November 2009

DisneylandOpening Day 1955

California’s Population Growth1900-2010

Today 2009

Projected 2040

Asian 4.1 million 10 million

Hispanic 10 million 28 million

White 17 million 20 million

California’s Population GrowthProjected

Source: Public Policy Institute of California

WhiteAsianHispanicAfrican American

California by Ethnicity 1990

Source: Public Policy Institute of California

WhiteAsianHispanicAfrican American

California by Ethnicity 2010

Source: Joint Venture: Silicon Valley Network and Public Policy Institute of California

California by Ethnicity, 2000

United States by Ethnicity, 2000

Source: United States Census Bureau

WhiteAsianHispanicAfrican American

California by Ethnicity 2040 projected

Source: Public Policy Institute of California

One Example:

California Prisons

From 1970-2000 the crime rate rose higher than the rate of population.

Today California has 115,000 convicts.

After a $3.4 billion construction spree, the prisons are more crowded than before.

Another example:

Transportation Infrastructure

1975 1995

Miles of highway 15,138 18,202

Vehicle miles traveled 72 billion 150 billion

Transportation in California

Demand vs. Capacity

Source: Public Policy Institute of California, Caltrans

Third example:

California’s Schools

California’s Per-pupil Spending relative to National Average, 1969-2000

Fourth example:

Water

Massive Population GrowthBurgeoning Demand Undisciplined Spending

Shrinking EconomyFiscal ConservatismNeopopulist Constraints

Question we must ask:

Does California have good institutions in place to provide thoughtful solutions and statesmanlike leadership?

No. We’re plagued by dysfunction.

Dysfunction in Sacramento.

Dysfunction in California’s regions.

Dysfunction in the electorate.

Dysfunction in Sacramento

California State AssemblySummer 2009

Dysfunction in our regions.

Dysfunction in the electorate

Problem: Ideological Divide, Gridlock

Solution:

Re-districtingOpen Primaries

Problem:

Budgetary Gridlock

Solution:

Relax super-majority requirement

Problem:

Term Limits

Solution:

16 years total, any house

Problem:

Budgetary Woes

Possible Solution:

Spending matches revenuesPay-as-you-go fundingInitiatives must specify sourcePeg tax to stable sourcesSpikes go into reserveMandatory set-asidesNew model for business activity

Problem:

Fractured State-Local Relationship

Possible Solution:Restore rule of separationProp 13 funds allocated locally

Problem:

Proliferation of Initiatives

Possible Solution:

Higher threshold for qualificationMust specify revenue source

Problem:

Questionable Effectiveness of Government programs

Possible Solution:

Performance-based budgeting

What’s the fastest way to achieve reforms such as these?

A Constitutional Convention?

The California Constitution

• 140 years old• 75,000 words• Amended 500 times

The United States Constitution• 220 years old• 4,500 words• Amended 17 times

Why such a dramatic step?

Incrementalism doesn’t respect the crisis we are in.

“Single-subject” rule doesn’t allow full slates to come before voters.

“Revisions” can only be authorized by the Legislature or through a convention.

How do you convene a constitutional convention?

Proposition One

Provides California voters the right to convene a convention.

Proposition Two

Calls for a constitutional convention in 2011.

How would the delegates be selected?

Three possibilities:

ElectionAppointmentRandom selection

How do you prevent a runaway convention?

Ballot will specify a “limited” convention:

• Budget reform• Election reform• State-local fiscal relationship reforms• Government oversight mechanisms

Moderating forces on the convention:

Delegates not beholden to interest groups

Highly public deliberations

Outcome will be placed back on the ballot for approval

Who supports the convention approach?Governor Arnold SchwarzeneggerDan Walters, Sacramento BeeDan Weintraub, Sacramento BeeNumerous legislatorsVelasquez InstituteSan Jose Mercury NewsThe EconomistNew York TimesSan Diego Union-TribuneSan Francisco ChronicleLos Angeles TimesContra Costa TimesSan Francisco Business TimesSilicon Valley/San Jose Business JournalFresno BeeNew American Foundation

Bay Area CouncilJoint Venture: Silicon Valley NetworkCommon CauseCourage CampaignThe GuardianThe Times StandardIrish TimesVentura County StarSanta Maria TimesThe Bond BuyerPeter SchragChico Enterprise-RecordSacramento BeeLa OpinionCalBuzzFresno BeeForbes

(partial list)

What do voters think?

Poll of 1000 registered California voters, conducted by EMC Research, September 8-13, 2009.

69% support Proposition 171% support Proposition 2

14% “state on right track”77% “state on wrong track”

73% of voters age 18-35 support71% of voters age 65- support70% low-propensity voters support80% Latinos support70% Republicans support71% Democrats support

63% support if held today, no additional information

How do I find out more?

www.repaircalifornia.org

Some men look at constitutions with sanctimonious reverence and deem

them like the ark of the covenant, too sacred to be touched. But

governments are always in their stock of information a century or two

behind the intelligent part of mankind, and have interests against

touching old institutions.

Can one generation bind another and all others forever? I think not.

We might as well require a man to wear still the coat which fitted him

when a boy. The Creator has made the earth for the living, not the dead.

Each generation has the right to choose for itself the form of

government it believes most promotive of its own happiness, to

accommodate to the circumstances in which it finds itself.

Thomas Jefferson

Thank you for engaging this subject!

Russell Hancockhancock@jointventure.org