Which wine are you - ENACrecherche.enac.fr/.../example_projects/wine2.pdf · Introduction Purpose :...
Transcript of Which wine are you - ENACrecherche.enac.fr/.../example_projects/wine2.pdf · Introduction Purpose :...
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Which wine are you ?
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT
ENAC
April 8, 2016
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Introduction
Purpose : Estimate the average nb of glasses drinked perweek for an individual
Database : Use of ”Google form” / sample size n=365
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Correlation Matrix
Figure: Part of Correlation Matrix
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Correlation Matrix
Correlated Variables
AGE,STATUS,CHILDREN,EARNINGS,JOB SITUATION
AFRICA,ASIA,AMERICA,EUROPE
QUANTITY,CONSUMPTION FREQ
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Variables Table (1)
Variables - Description Name UnitsAge AGE YearsGender MALE 0..1Born in France FRANCEBIRTH 0..1Location (FR Region/Abroad) REGION 0..12Urban/Countryside CITY 0..1Sport practise freq. SPORT FREQUENCE 0..3Consuming wine CONSUMPTION 0..1Favorite type of wine FAVORITE 0..2Type of sellers PRODUCER 0..1- SUPERMARKET 0..1- SPECIALIZED SHOP 0..1- INTERNET EXIHIBITION 0..1Parents habits TRADITION 0..1
Table: Variables Tables - Part 1
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Variables Table (2)
Variables - Description Name UnitsOther drinked beverages BEER 0..1- STRONG ALCOHOL 0..1- CHAMPAGNE 0..1Oenology skills level KNOWLEDGE 1..4Max. wine bottle expenditure BUDGET 1..4Criterias of choice CRITERIAREGIONS 0..1- PRICE 0..1- TASTE 0..1- DESIGN 0..1Wine/Event NOCONNOTATION 0..1- GIFT 0..1- PARTY 0..1- FAMILYMEAL 0..1- CHILLING 0..1
Table: Variables Tables - Part 2
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Dependant Variable
Y
Y = QUANTITY (nb of glasses/w.)
Too hard to modelize our initial dummy variable : FAVORITE.
An other possible choice : CONSUMPTION FREQ (cf.correlations)
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Linear Regression - EViews
Notable Values
k = 48
R2 = 0.313947
R2
= 0.212230
Figure: Linear regression - Model 1
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Analysis
Too many ”insignificant parameters” to modelize itproperly.
Lack of precision.
⇒ Conclusion : We have to improve our choices to improveour model quality.
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Linear Regression - EViews
Notable Values
k = 29
R2 = 0.305546 < R21
R2
= 0.247675 > R21
Figure: Linear regression - Model 1
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Analysis (1)
Variables Expected ActualAGE + +MALE + +(REGION = 1) + NS(REGION = 2) + +(REGION = 5) + +(REGION = 6) + NS(REGION = 7) + NS(REGION = 8) + NSCITY - -(FAVORITE = 0) - NS(FAVORITE = 2) + +PRODUCER + +INTERNET EXIHIBITION - +
Table: Expected/Actual Effects - Part 1
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Analysis (2)
Variables Expected ActualCHAMPAGNE + -TRADITION + +(KNOWLEDGE = 1) - -(KNOWLEDGE = 2) - -(KNOWLEDGE = 3) + -(KNOWLEDGE = 4) + -(BUDGET = 2) - -(BUDGET = 3) + -(BUDGET = 4) + -CRITERIAREGIONS + +TASTE + NSDESIGN - +FAMILYMEAL - -CHILLING + +
Table: Expected/Actual Effects - Part 2
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
F-Statistic
F-Statistic = 5.279763 > F(29,365-29) (n = 365 and k = 29)
Cl : we reject H0 ⇒ β0,...,β28 = 0, our model is globallysignificant.
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Normality
Figure: Resid. Final Model Histogramm
Analyse
JB = n−kn × JB = 1348
We reject H0.
⇒ We do not have u∼N.
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Hetero-/Homo-scedasticity
White Heteroscedasticity Test
n × R2 = 34.0758 > χ2(29) = 39, 0875 → (α=0.1)
We d.n.r H0.
⇒ We have Homoscedasticity.
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?
Conclusion
First model enhanced.
Other methods (log,squared variables) could have been usedto improve the model.
Some variables have an unexpected marginal effect on thedependant variable.
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Lucas ALBINET Julie MONTELS Maxence RAGOT Which wine are you ?