Which Future for European Space?

Klaus R. Kunzmann Potsdam, Professor em. TU Dortmund/Germany

Sailing ahead Which Future for European Space?

Closing lecture of Lower Silesia Festival of Architecture 2015 “City Flows”. Wroclaw, Museum of Architecture, 9. October 2015 .

Outline

•  Europe 2015 •  Challenges of European territorial development •  Pathways into the future of European space •  Scenarios, visions and narratives for Europe •  A final comment

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The Future of European Space

Europe 2015 Europe is in a crisis

•  Return of nationalism and militant regionalism and eroding solidarity •  Increasing hegemonial dominance of the Anglo-American world of finances •  Dependency on US based global information and communication power •  Economic divide between global and local economies, between North and

South and East and Wes in Europe •  Growing economic competition from China and other BRICSs •  Demographic change >aging and clash of values between generations •  Migration flows from Africa and the Middle East •  Limited absorptive capacity and ailing competence of local, regional and

national governments to cope with EU regulation and information overload

. . . .and as a rule these changes cannot be tackled at the local or regional level of planning and decision-making

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Challenges of European territorial development

•  Climate change

•  Continuous concentration of jobs and population in metropolitan city regions

•  Economic, social and spatial polarisatio at European, national, regional and urban tiers

•  Marginalisation of peripheral regions >maintaining public services •  Structural change in old industrial regions •  Preserving the cultural heritage •  Maintaining the balanced urban system •  Constraining the use of land to conserve resources •  Protecting fragile border environments >East, Southeast and South •  Industrialization of agriculture and decline of small scale farming

. . . . . .and all this in a climate of eroding European solidarity . . . .

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Traditional Pathways into the Future of European Space

Where to go? •  Global Cities •  Metroregions •  Macro Region Development •  Border regions •  Cohesion Policy: A New ESDP? •  TransEuropean Corridors >TENs •  ESPON: Europe 2050

. .. though all this may not lead to a new Europe!

No Bananas or Shoes! Europe is a Bunch of Grapes

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Global Cities

Paris and London, the only global cities (almost city states) in Europe > Istanbul

•  Concentration of financial, economic, political power in Europe. •  Most EU policies support directly or indirectly the development of the

two global cities to secure Europe’s competiveness in the world •  Both cities compete for tourists, inward investment and the creative

class and cultural hegemony in Europe

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ww.mlit.go.jp/kokudokeikaku/international/spw/general/uk/images/figure02_uk_b.jpgSource:


Towards a Europe of Metro Regions Depending on local politics, leadership, corporate power, the civil society

and the creativity of grassroots movements cities promote development in metropolitan regions following trendy urban development paradigms, such as

•  Smart and intelligent •  Sustainable or Eco or green •  Creative •  Knowledge •  Inclusive •  Cosmopolitan and liveable •  Compact •  Resilient or healthy > and many more

In fierce competition with other city regions in Europe and beyond, striving to link to trans-european transport networks and expand their territories to a dependant suburban and rural hinterland

. . continuously struggling between top-down and bottom-up decision-making environments to balance social, economic, cultural and ecological objectives

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Developing Border Regions Cross-border policies and programmes of the EU aim to

•  Maintain peace on European borders

•  Overcome national boundaries and national ideologies

•  Encourage interregional cooperation

•  Support usually much neglected regions in the periphery of nation-states

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Macro Region Development

•  Promote the idea of an United Europe •  Overcome national boundaries and national ideologies •  Experiment cross-national regional development, encourage interregional

cooperation and converge national approaches to regional development

•  Experimnt in

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EU Cohesion Policy Cohesion policy is a spatial policy,

aiming to promote regional development across Europe

and influence sector policies to be aware of their (unintended?) territorial impacts > Budget: 2014-2020 >325 Mrd. €

What can EU cohesion policy achieve?

•  Bring hope, encourage local governments •  Show action •  Promote the European Idea •  Distribute and redistribute financial resources •  Transfer knowledge •  Strengthen competences in regions •  Set standards •  Show pathways into the future

Quelle: DG Regio MEMO/13/1011 19/11/2013

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TENs

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Developing the Trans-European Transport Network is one of the EU responses to the challenges mentioned above.

The aims are: •  Strengthening global competitiveness of

Europe as a whole •  Accelerating European cohesion •  Linking Eastern Europe better to the West •  Shortening travelling and transportation times

across Europe •  Linking city regions in the periphery to the core

of Europe •  Bypassing Germany, when transporting goods

from the Mediterranean to Scandinavia •  Creating the territory of single internal market, •  In the end the TEN aims to deepen the

European Union

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ESPON: Europe 2050 A scenario developed in the framework of ESPON research Europe: open and polycentric

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More Pathways into the Future of European Space

….the above visions for Europe may not address all problems of the continent….

What about other pathways?

•  Europe: Cultural Theme Park of the World •  Europe: A Pastoral Continent •  Europe: School of the World •  Europe: A Smart Continent •  Europe: Silicon Archipelago •  Europe: China’s Special Economic Zone •  Europe: Backwater of the North African Industrial Belt

Europe: Theme Park of the World . . . the old Europe scenario

Klaus R. Kunzmann

•  The urban and cultural heritage of Europe’s cities and regions is seen as the key territorial potential for urban and regional economic development;

•  Conservation of the urban and heritage is a key concern of city development, Local and regional economies are linked to culture and heritage;

•  Humanities, cultural sciences, the preservation of the heritage and tourism receive high priority in higher education and research;

•  From Venice to Tuscany, from Skane to Brandenburg, from Scotland to Sardinia, from Aix-en-Provence to the Massive Central, from Salamanca to Canary Islands, Europe becomes a second and third home continent for the affluent middle and upper class of Asia and Russia,.

•  Silence, learning and nature observation are the key assets of European holiday regions;

•  Mobility concepts are oriented to tourist target and second home owners;


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TENs and the Future of European Space

A European Territorial Development Strategy Can it make an impact?

Given the importance of EU corridors and the related transport infrastructure for territorial cohesion at a transnational level, a common regulative framework should be implemented in order to provide a homogenous background against which to operate. The concept of an integrated European territorial development strategy would enable local and regional decision-makers to refer to the European dimension during national discussions and to have a clear, communicable perspective on their level of intervention. (Recommendation VII of the paper)

Better not!

1.  There is no willingness at EU level (and at most national tiers) to produce a follow-up project to the ESDP, which had not much political impact in the member countries of the EU

2.  An integrated European territorial development strategy would not address the challenges of the TENs and hardly solve the impacts

3.  A common regulative framework (law) would centralize even more power in Brussels and be against the interests of the regions and the people

4.  National governments should rather be given advice and guidelines how to better cooperate with regions, affected by sector policies

Slow Europe: A Pastoral Continent Klaus R. Kunzmann

•  Ecological objectives, low carbon principles and resource conservation determine regional policies;

•  Agriculture in all forms regains economic importance. Quality food is exported to all over the world . Europe becomes the food basket of the Middle East, North Africa and China;

•  Forests and nature parks are extended across Europe:

•  Traditional medicine and the cultivation of medical herbes conquer the continent;

•  Integrated policies promote rural-urban economies and intra-regional economic circuits;

•  Principles of agro-tourismo prevail in tourism policies;

•  Endogenous development and slow city concepts conquers strategic urban and regional policies;

•  Individual mobility and interregional flows of goods gradually decline:

. . . a desperate scenario?


Europe: School of the World . . . the mainstream scenario

Klaus R. Kunzmann

•  Knowledge has been identified as the new resource and survival strategy of Europe in the Asian century;

•  National governments double the expenses for higher education and research;

•  By profiling their local knowledge-scapes and creating urban environments for learning and living, sports and entertainment, European cities promote the evolution of a complex system of knowledge industries;

•  European universities market their institutions as centers of advanced higher education and innovative training. They aim to become favorite targets of students and researchers from all over the world;


Europe: A Smart Continent The corporate Europe

Klaus R. Kunzmann

•  Many cities promote smart-city concepts, promoted by Siemens, IMB , Cisco and others:

•  Better Mobility management, energy reduction and public transport information contribute to achieve the compact green city

•  Smart technologies enable rural regions to survive, enabling people in low density regions to have convenient access to public services, such as welfare, health, education and public transport;

•  Smart logistics optimize freight transport and accommodate growing use of e-shopping;

•  City centers are gradually transforming into consumption fairs and museums for e-shoppers;

•  City tourists are guided (and seduced) by new information technologies


Europe: The Silicon Archipelago Europe is lagging behind the US and China, when it comes to

innovative entrepreneurship

The Greek archipelago would be a perfect location for the innovative European creative class

Supported by a huge Marshall plan of the EU, programmes are developed to attract young entrepreneurs from around the world to to start up ITC businesses on the islands

A new university of the archipelago will be the hub of innovative global work and life balances

Within two decades the archipelago of Greece will become the most advanced Region of Europe, It competes successfully with California and Chinese HighTech regions


Europe: China’s special economic zone . . . not an unlikely scenario!

Klaus R. Kunzmann

•  Special (free) zones for Chinese investment are developed in areas, with high unemployment and easy access to China, > Hamburg, Naples, Parchim

•  Chinese low cost production zones in in Europe and North Africa Prato, Naples, Sicily; Romania, or Egypt

•  Growing Chinese investment in high tech enterprises > Mechanical engineering, environmental technology,

•  Chinese/European automobiles are assembled in Europe’s car factories >Volvo, Opel, Fiat, Peugeot

•  Development of Chinese technology and science parks in partnership with European cities and universities

•  China has a considerable stake in European agriculture and food industries

•  Next generation high-speed trains in Europe are built by Chinese corporations

•  Chinese architects are invited to design flagship projects


Europe Backwater of the North African Industrial Belt

. . the unlikely Arab spring scenario

Klaus R. Kunzmann

•  The Arab spring has triggered-off a rethinking of European development and migration policies;

•  In cooperation with China a Mediterranean Marshall plan will be initiated by Turkey, Israel and Spain to develop North Africa as a European-African integration zone top provide jobs, education and training for young Arabs and Africans;

•  Following the model of China, free economic zones are established in the region, with good accessibility to port facilities;

•  Modern Infrastructure is built , technical universities , schools and technology parks will be established to meet the requirements of the Sub Sahara Africa;

•  Energy produced in the Sahara is used for building up industries and technology parks dedicated to the development of solar energy and the provision of drinking water;

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