Which factors forecast most accurately which of the nominees will win Best Picture? Total Revenue...
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Which factors forecast most accurately which of the nominees will win Best Picture?
Total Revenue (adjusted) Total Budget (adjusted) Running Time Director Experience Source Material Studio Genre Release Date
Summary StatisticsWinning Nominees
Mean Minimum Maximum
Median Standard Deviation
Revenue242438461 16894615 805056171 185472335 188485606
Budget 47569153 4158000 268000000
36300000 46985166
Running Time
144.59 93 219 133 33.34
Days released before ceremony
170.46 68 409 129 95.65
Mean Minimum Maximum Median Standard Deviation
Revenue 181671197
14719007 2138850000
92361268 274189636
Budget 39212831 2440000 175500000
28893000 34417879
Running Time
131.98 84 194 128 23.88
Days released before ceremony
187.34 57 444 135.5 113.86
Losing NomineesSummary Statistics
95% Confidence.
H0 H1 P Value
Days from Ceremony
μw-μL=0 μ w-μL<0 .1880
Does a closer release date indicate a higher chance of winning?
T-Test
Variable Coefficients P-value
Intercept -0.054078819 0.84446358
Adjusted Revenue 1.35159E-10 0.393175424
Adjusted Budget -8.61494E-10 0.476716168
Days from release to award -0.000111417 0.753687073
Running Time 0.004166588 0.023103215
Experienced Director -0.203595373 0.00943012
Comedy -0.116411456 0.390173456
Drama -0.113457394 0.251954524
Thriller -0.247609864 0.048548348
True Story -0.12130757 0.184288749
Original -0.050586749 0.541565801
Major Studio 0.066714224 0.401458856
MODEL
R-Squared .143
Significance F 0.034
n 143
Ŷ=1.35E-10x1-8.62E-10x2-1.1E-
4x3+0.0042x4-0.20x5-0.12x6-0.114x7-0.25x8-0.12x9-0.05x10+.067x11
Our Equation
X1=Adjusted Revenue
x2=Adjusted Budget
X3= Release Date
X4= Running Time
X5= Director Experience
X6=Comedy
X7= Drama
X8= Thriller
X9= True Story X10= Original
X11= Major Studio
FilmLost in Translation
Master and Commander
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
2003ŷ
.312678
0.299045
0.167013
0.447025
0.664269
FilmSlumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
MilkThe Reader
2008ŷ
0.448771
0.5274240.117674
0.116869
0.242687
ConclusionsThe strongest correlation we found in the variables we tested was a positive correlation between running time and Oscar WinningsWe showed that the common assertion that films with release dates closer to the awards ceremony are more likely to win is likely a mythInterestingly, we found a Negative correlation between experience of director and winning. Overall, our model can only account for 11% of the variability in Data. You cannot quantitatively measure how “good” a movie is.
Credits
Lead Excel Technician Warren Brown-PoundsAssistant Excel Technician Bryce Gerard
Data Collection Grisel ZunigaWarren Brown-PoundsBryce Gerard
Regression Analysts Warren Brown-PoundsBryce Gerard
Data Provided By imdb.comboxofficemojo.com
PowerPoint Design Bryce GerardBased on an Idea by Bryce GerardSpecial Thanks to: Rajat Gupta