Where it comes from
-
Upload
hondafanatics -
Category
Documents
-
view
242 -
download
2
Transcript of Where it comes from
![Page 1: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Hint: it’s all about geology and cars and heating and...
![Page 2: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Two different estimates
Source: US Dept of Energy
![Page 3: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Who will be using it?
Source: US Dept of Energy
Industrialized countries use two-thirds of total now, soon will be about equal
![Page 4: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Primary uses are: transportation
and electricity
Petroleum products are useful because they’re portable
which is easily distributed between fixed points for other uses
Both these are growing fields !
![Page 5: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
EE/FSU=Eastern Europe &Former Soviet Union
We like our cars...and so doeseveryoneelse
NB: Europe & Industrial Asia aren’t projected to grow much; compare w/ other places
Source: US Dept of Energy
![Page 6: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Electricity demands are projected to grow over the next 20 years
Note the different geographic distributionSource: US Dept of Energy
![Page 7: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Why does energy consumptionincrease?
Note the different geographic distributionSource: US Dept of Energy
1) Popul’n2) Std of Living
![Page 8: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Various economic scenarios:
The better off people are, the more energy we’re gonna need.
Source: US Dept of Energy
![Page 9: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
All right, so there’s a real need. What are our energy sources?
Yep, it’s oil, folks
Oil + Natl Gas= ~ 3 X Coal
others negligible
Source: US Dept of Energy
NB: current usage
![Page 10: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Oil prices are interesting...
Source: US Dept of Energy
Prices havevaried by afactor of 6 over the last30 years.
(So why thesmooth projection? )
How good is it for the year 2002?
![Page 11: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Didja see any evidence of positive feedback in the oil market on the last slide?
The OPEC oil ministers have declared that they wish to keep the price low enough that further exploration will not be economically viable (Negative feedback)
![Page 12: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
When Gulf Oil opened the first gas station back in 1913, the price was $0.27/gallon.
That was about 3 hours work at the prevailing average wage.
Scaling into today’s regime, we’d be talking about $25 – 30 for a gallon of gas.
![Page 13: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
THE REAL COST OF THE REAL COST OF PETROLEUM MOTOR PETROLEUM MOTOR
FUELFUEL
Environmental DamageAgricultural LossesIncreased Health Care
ExpensesHigher Insurance Premiums
U.S. Military Expenses for U.S. Military Expenses for Protecting Middle East Oil Protecting Middle East Oil SuppliesSupplies
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
$45/Barrel
$15/Barrel
$9/Barrel
Price of a Barrel of OilPrice of a Barrel of Oil
Actual Cost of Oil is at Least $69 Per Barrel
One man’s opinion on:
Source: Robert Q. Riley Consulting
![Page 14: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Back in 1949 a geophysicist named M. King Hubbert,working for Shell, got interested in the total oil supply.Using his geologic estimates for future discoveries,he predicted production levels amazingly accurately:
Hubbert curves showproductionrates in b/yr
This shows 2 of Hubbert’s early projections; notethe peak years
![Page 15: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
50 years experience makes Hubbert look pretty good overall
This chart addsthe effects of “unconventional” production
--extends our supply a little, butdoesn’t change much
Source: CJ Campbell, Oil & Gas Journal, March, 2000
![Page 16: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Note that production curves tail off while need curves just keep increasing!
![Page 17: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Basic problem is that discoveryrate is now less than consumption
Discovery peakwas in the ’70’sleading to theproduction peaknow
We now consume 4 times as much as we discover! Source: CJ Campbell, House of
Commons testimony
![Page 18: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Oil production lags discovery
Source: CJ Campbell, House of Commons testimony
![Page 19: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
US oil discovery & production as an example:
Discovery
Prod’n
Source: CJ Campbell, House of Commons testimony
![Page 20: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
The US was the first country to have an oil industry
The discovery peak was 1930’sProduction peak was 1970’s
For the North Sea and Alaskan fields, it’s only 28 years between discovery & production peaks
This in spite of much more difficult production & distribution conditions --better technology gained us speed
![Page 21: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Global discovery peak was in the 1970’s
25 - 30 years of well-funded effort by some very smart people prospecting around the world hasn’t increased the discovery rate
![Page 22: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
The slowing Discovery Rate:
Includes oil“discovered”in known reservoirs (“backdated”)
-a majorsource of “new” oil for the past 30 years!
Source: CJ Campbell, House of Commons testimony
![Page 23: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Fourth Quarter 2001 API Drilling Statistics
WASHINGTON, January 16 — Estimated completions of U.S. oil wells, natural gas wells and dry holes decreased by 8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2001 compared with the same period of 2000, the American Petroleum Institute reported today. Oil well completions dropped 23 percent, and natural gas completions dropped 3 percent for the quarter compared to the same period of 2000.
According to the 2001 Quarterly Well Completion Report: Fourth Quarter, an estimated 8,309 oil wells, natural gas wells and dry holes were completed in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2000, there were an estimated 9,038 completions. For the fourth quarter of 2001, gas completions were down 3 percent to 5,365; oil well completions decreased 23 percent to 1,931, and dry holes rose 3 percent to 1,013.
Total exploratory completions were up 26 percent in the fourth quarter and development completions were down 11 percent compared to the same quarter last year.
API also reported a 1 percent increase in total footage drilled in the fourth quarter for a total of 41,534,000 feet.
From the API:
![Page 24: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Source: CJ Campbell, House of Commons testimony
Contrast this with the popular image:
“This notionis believedby many Politicians.” --Colin Campbell
![Page 25: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Leading to some laughable consumer decisions
![Page 26: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
In Europe, where gasoline prices have been over $5 per gallon for many years,
![Page 27: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
…they’ve taken to using cars that you put on like a sweater
The Smart Car serves quite well for most urban purposes
![Page 28: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
…or even a T-shirt…
(This one’s in Italy & must get a jillion miles per gallon.)
![Page 29: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
We can do OK in this country, too
Here’s an experimental car built by some students at Berkeley that gets over 1,000 miles per gallon
Not even trying for production, of course…
![Page 30: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Production is another matter:
Some serious players think that we could do a lot better than we are:
The 1985 Chevy Blazer got 20 mpg, the 2002 model gets 18
Fleet averages fell from 26 to 24 in the same interval…
![Page 31: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Here’s a potentially useful technology:
“Hybrid” cars are an attempt to maximize the relative advantages of gasoline and electrical power systems
Honda and Toyota both have production versions of hybrid cars available in the U.S. now. The price is $20,000, and the gas mileages are 56 & 48 mpg, respectively.
![Page 32: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Hubbert curves for all petroleum-like resources that we have fashioned to date change the picture a little
But notmuch
Source: CJ Campbell, House of Commons testimony
![Page 33: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
The underlying cause is that petroleumoccurrence is a pretty rare thing
Must havethe right:
Initial cond’sHistory Geologic Environm’t
Source: CJ Campbell, House of Commons testimony
![Page 34: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
So, we are faced with a scenario something like this:
![Page 35: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
and it’s interesting to note just where the oil reserves are …
![Page 36: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
WORLD PETROLEUM RESERVES
Billion Barrels
Total Remaining
Total Recovered
UnitedStates
Canada
Mexico,Central America,& South America
WesternEurope
Mid-East
EasternEurope,FormerU.S.S.R.,China
OtherEasternHemisphere
Total Oil Recovered Since 1859 & Total Remaining as of 1990
Protecting Against Limited Supplies, Protecting Against Limited Supplies, Future Monopolies, and Price IncreasesFuture Monopolies, and Price Increases
![Page 37: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
So it looks like, in YOUR lifetime you will be:
• Paying a LOT more for gasoline • Very concerned with Middle East politics• Trying new energy technologies• Looking for alternate sources of energy
![Page 38: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
with regard to alternate sources,consider these data on energy available from non-renewable sources:
Source Total Energy (J)
Uranium 1.6 E 23 Coal 1.4 E 23 Syncrude 1.4 E 22 (tar sands, shale oil) Crude oil 1.0 E 22 Nat’l Gas 8.0 E 21
![Page 39: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
and from renewable ones:
Source Energy (J/yr)
Solar 4.0 E 24 Biomass ~2 E 21 Hydroelectric 9.2 E 19 Geothermal 8.0 E 19 Wind energy unknown
![Page 40: Where it comes from](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022042715/55940d2a1a28ab0c048b4702/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Afterword: Comparing energy prices for different fuels:
Fuel $/MbtuOil 3.49Nat’l Gas 4.29Coal 1.19
How about wood, ethanol, wind, geothermal, solar, tidal, …?