Where is the UK ELT Market Headed? · Where is the UK ELT Market Headed? Patrik Pavlacic, Head of...

W h e r e i s t h e U K E L T M a r k e t H e a d e d ?

Patrik Pavlacic, Head of Research, BONARD

ABOUT BONARD

BONARD (formerly StudentMarketing) is a market intelligence and strategic development firm. We leverage our global knowledge and connections to help our clients grow in the vibrant international

education market.

4Offices

In Europe and China

282Projects

Conducted by our certified experts

50Specialists

Focusing on research, business solutions

1,000Meetings

With industry stakeholders conducted annually

20,000Stakeholders

Interviewed annually

2

[email protected] twitter.com/BonardGlobalwww.bonard.com company/BonardGlobal

BONARD is a United Nations World Tourism Organization Affiliate Member.

OUR ENGAGEMENT WITH THE UK ELT SECTOR 3


4


UK’S GLOBAL POSITION

GLOBAL ELT: OVERALL MARKET SIZE 5


STUDENT NUMBERS STUDENT WEEKS

580,598

1,378,345

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

UK TOTAL

2,333,544

10,496,109

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

UK TOTAL

Source: BONARD, 2019; based on data from national associations, stats offices and global ELT supply.

GLOBAL ELT: STUDENT NUMBERS 6


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

USA UK AUSTRALIA CANADA IRELAND NEW ZEALAND MALTA SOUTH AFRICA

2014 2015 2016 2017 201842%


GLOBAL ELT: STUDENT WEEKS 7


0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

USA UK AUSTRALIA CANADA IRELAND NEW ZEALAND MALTA SOUTH AFRICA

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

22%


GLOBAL ELT: TOP SOURCE MARKETS (SWS) 8


0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

China

Brazil

Japan

Saudi A

rabia

South

KoreaIta

ly

ColombiaSp

ain

Thaila

nd

Turke

y

Taiwan

Vietnam

France

Mexico

Switze

rland

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: BONARD, 2019

GLOBAL ELT: UK’S SHARE IN TOP 20 MARKETS (SWS) 9


64%

50% 10

%

50%

13%

13%

15%

7%

28%

44%

50%

51%

8% 2

%

20%

41%

8%

13%1%

41%


Top 1-10 source markets

Top 11-20 source markets

10


SPOTLIGHT ON THE UK

UK ELT: TOP SOURCE MARKETS (OVERALL) 11


Source: English UK, 2019

EU

EU

EU

EU

EU

EU

STUDENT WEEKS

UK ELT: TOP EU SOURCE MARKETS (STATE SECTOR) 12


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

POLA

NDSP

AIN

ROMANIA

ITALY

BULG

ARIA

UNITED KIN

GDOM

FRANCE

GERMANY

CZECH RE

PUBL

IC

LATV

IA

PORTU

GAL

HUNGARY

LITHUANIA

GREEC

E

NETHER

LANDS

2017 2018Source market

Share (weeks,

2018)

y-o-y change

(%)Poland 6.1% 13.2%Spain 2.4% -2.7%Romania 2.0% 236.2%Italy 1.9% 20.2%Bulgaria 1.0% 24.8%United Kingdom 0.9% -8.9%France 0.7% -4.8%Germany 0.6% 10.3%Czech Republic 0.3% 10.7%Latvia 0.3% -22.6%Portugal 0.2% -48.0%Hungary 0.2% -41.8%Lithuania 0.2% 4.7%Greece 0.2% -13.0%Netherlands 0.2% -2.4%


UK ELT: TOP EU SOURCE MARKETS (PRIVATE SECTOR) 13


STUDENT WEEKS

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

ITALYSP

AIN

FRANCE

GERMANY

POLA

ND

UNITED KIN

GDOM

AUSTRIA

BELG

IUM

CZECH RE

PUBL

IC

PORTU

GAL

NETHER

LANDS

SWED

EN

HUNGARY

BULG

ARIA

ROMANIA

2017 2018Source market

Share (weeks,

2018)

y-o-y change

(%)Italy 16.2% -5.1%Spain 7.2% -1.8%France 5.6% -0.2%Germany 3.8% -0.5%Poland 0.8% -5.2%United Kingdom 0.8% 128.9%Austria 0.7% -5.3%Belgium 0.6% -7.5%Czech Republic 0.6% 12.4%Portugal 0.5% -7.9%Netherlands 0.5% -16.9%Sweden 0.4% -18.5%Hungary 0.2% 10.2%Bulgaria 0.2% -14.8%Romania 0.2% -14.4%


UK ELT: REGIONAL OVERVIEW (SWS) 14



UK ELT: REGIONAL OVERVIEW 15

[email protected] company/BonardGlobal

Region Student weeks(% share)

Student numbers(% share)

Student weeks(% share)

Student numbers(% share)

Central England 1% 1% 5% 4%

Eastern England 8% 9% 7% 8%

London 24% 21% 27% 32%

Northern England 9% 8% 19% 13%

Northern Ireland 1% 1% 0% 0%

Scotland 12% 7% 6% 3%

South & South Eastern England 27% 34% 20% 25%

South West England & The Channel Islands 16% 18% 14% 14%

Wales 1% 1% 2% 1%

TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100%

EU Non-EU


UK ELT: JUNIOR TO ADULT RATIO (SNS) 16


63%

37%

35%

61%

64%

68%

61%

47%

74%

37%

63%

65%

39%

36%

32%

39%

53%

26%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

WALES

SOUTH WEST ENGLAND & THE CHANNEL ISLANDS

SOUTH & SOUTH EASTERN ENGLAND

SCOTLAND

NORTHERN IRELAND

NORTHERN ENGLAND

LONDON

EASTERN ENGLAND

CENTRAL ENGLAND

ADULTS JUNIORS


UK ELT: CHAINS & INDEPENDENTS (PRIVATE SECTOR) 17


0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Student numbers Student weeks

2017 2018

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Student numbers Student weeks

2017 2018

CHAINS INDEPENDENTS


UK ELT: CHAINS & INDEPENDENTS (PRIVATE SECTOR, SNS) 18


010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,000

Easte

rn En

gland

Lond

on

Northern

Englan

d

Scotla

nd

South

& South

Easte

rn En

gland

South

West E

ngland

2017 2018

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

100,000

Easte

rn En

gland

Lond

on

Northern

Englan

d

Scotla

nd

South

& South

Easte

rn En

gland

South

West E

ngland

Wales

2017 2018

CHAINS INDEPENDENTS


19


FUTURE OUTLOOK

INDUSTRY SENTIMENT 20


Q: How could English UK help your agency with regard to the nearing Brexit?

Source: BONARD agency survey, 2019; n=194 agents

UK ELT SUPPLY 21



OVERSU

PPLY

? CONSOLIDATION

• Number of transactions up from 2017.• Closures and exit strategies.

AVERAGE CENTRE SIZE*

PRIVATE SECTOR:Student numbers: 1,341Student weeks: 4,421

STATE SECTOR:Student numbers: 587Student weeks: 5,189

* English UK membership only.

UK’S NEW INTL ED STRATEGY 22


TARGETS

At its heart is an ambition to increase the value of education exports to £35 billion per year, and to students hosted in the UK to 600,000 per year, both by 2030.

PRIORITY MARKETS

China and Hong Kong; the Middle East and North Africa; Latin America; and the ASEAN group of nations.

BUDGETS AVAILABLE

The strategy encourages education bids to the GREAT Challenge Fund for 2019. This £5 million fund supports export activity for the sector across the globe.

SUMMARY 23


The ELT market in the UK continues to benefit from the longstanding tradition of being the primary destination to study the English language at high-quality educational institutions. Overall, the UK is still the most popular destination, with a global market share of 42% in terms of student numbers.

The UK ELT sector is still dependent on a declining Western Europe as its main source region (in terms of student numbers. In addition, while EU countries account for 57% of all students, they represent 37% of all student weeks.

In recent years, UK ELT centres have attracted more juniors, helping the market to sustain growth. Juniors make up 54% of ELT students in English UK private sector centres and 13% in state sector centres.

The current political and economic situation and uncertainty surrounding Brexit in the UK is keeping the currency exchange rates low, helping maintain interest among prospective students.

The UK government has also implemented new policies to ensure steady influx of international students, who are offered a two-year work visa after graduating from a British university.

Moreover, the new international education strategy aims to increase the value of education exports to £35 billion per year, and that of higher education students hosted in the UK to 600,000 per year by 2030.

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Where is the UK ELT Market Headed? · Where is the UK ELT Market Headed? Patrik Pavlacic, Head of...

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