Where is Harm’s Way? (Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines)
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Transcript of Where is Harm’s Way? (Mapping Disaster Risk in the Philippines)
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Where is Harm’s Way?(Mapping Disaster Risk
in the Philippines)
Department of Environment and Natural Resources
Manila Observatory15 March 2005
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Can you guess this hazard?
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And this one…
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Where does the money go?
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Disaster Language
Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability
Risk likelihood of harm, loss, disaster
Hazard physical impact of disturbance
Exposure elements affected by hazard
Vulnerabilitycapacity of community to prepare, absorb, recover from hazard
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Risk = H x E x V
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Hazards• Natural
– Typhoon– Drought (El Nino)– Earthquake (Tremor, Landslide)– Volcano– Tsunami
• Anthropogenic– Deforestation– Mining– Climate change (historical, projected)
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Hazard:Typhoon
Data source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center (1945-2001)
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Hazard:Drought(El Nino)
Data source: IPCC Data Distribution Centre-Climate Research Unit
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Hazard:Earthquake
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Hazard:Landslide(E-quake)
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Hazard:Volcano
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Hazard:Tsunami
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Hazard:Deforestation
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Hazard:Mining
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Hazard: Climate change (historical rain, temperature)
Source: IPCC Data Distribution Centre-Climate Research Unit
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Hazard:Climate change
(projected warming)
Source: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization
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Hazard: Climate change (projected rainfall)
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
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Exposure
• Population
• Natural habitat
• Conservation areas
• Groundwater
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Exposure (Population)
Data source: NSO, (Population in 2000)
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Exposure(Natural Habitat)
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Exposure (conservation areas)
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Exposure (groundwater)
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Vulnerability
• Human Development Index– Education– Health– Economy
• Urban centers
• Socio-eco pressures
• Transport
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Vulnerability (HDI)
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Vulnerability (urban centers)
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Vulnerability (socio-eco pressure)
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Vulnerability (transport)
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Risk
• Typhoon
• Drought (El Nino)
• Earthquake (tremor, landslide)
• Tsunami
• Volcano
• Climate Change (temperature, rainfall)
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Risk:Typhoon
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Risk:Drought(El Nino)
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Risk:Earthquake
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Risk:Landslide
(Earthquake)
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Risk:Tsunami
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Risk:Volcano
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Risk:Climate Change (Temperature)
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Risk:Climate Change
(Rainfall)
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In sum, harm’s way:• Typhoon
– Luzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east)
• Drought (El Nino)– Mindanao (central, west)
• Earthquake (tremor, landslide) + Tsunami– Northwest to southeast diagonal across RP
• Volcano– Luzon (west central, south, southeast), Visayas (central,
east), Mindanao (central)
• Climate Change – Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas (central)– Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast), Visayas (east)