When to run more experiments?

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iLive Latvia, Riga, November 12th 2015 Ton Wesseling CEO Testing.Agency #iLive2015- @TonW Run more experiments

Transcript of When to run more experiments?

i L i v e L a t v i a , R i g a , N o v e m b e r 1 2 t h 2 0 1 5

To n W e s s e l i n g – C E O – Te s t i n g . A g e n c y

# i L i v e 2 0 1 5 - @ To n W

Run more experiments

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Thank you for having me

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

On this stage

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Visit ing Riga

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On november 11th

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http:/ / test ing.agency

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Meeting you al l

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Conversion people

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Always fun

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

When we start cooking

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Open minded, outgoing

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High energy & fun

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

We are

Evidence Based

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And

LEAN

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I t has been a long day

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What about your energy?

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Value for your t ime and money

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Reboost your energy

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Please stand up

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Raise your hands

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Raise your hands

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High energy conversion fun

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Calm down and focus

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Why this song?

ROAR

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Because of Katy Perry?

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No, i t ’s the name of the song!

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Today

the

ROARmodel

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20 years ago

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I learned about him

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Quali ty circle – the start of LEAN

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LEAN

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So I looked at data

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Made some changes

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And measured i f i t was successful

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And measured i f i t was successful

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Why can this lead to fai lures?

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Average conversion rate looks stable

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But in fact

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There is a big weekly change!

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I only did small improvements

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So I made many wrong decisions

26 out of 44 weeks: over 5% change!

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Then I learned about this story…

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Bil l Murray

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Trying to get the gir l

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Constant test ing environment

A/B-Testing

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Methods used to improve conversion

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Methods companies plan to use

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A/B-test ing is

HOT

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A/B-test ing is

HOT

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Everyone is pushing to test more

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Like Amazon, Like ZalandoG

erm

an

Ecom

me

rce

mark

et,

thank

you

An

dré

Mory

s

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More experiments

“If you double the number of

experiments you do per year

you’re going to double your

inventiveness”

Jeff Bezos, CEO Amazon

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Never sat isf ied with conversion rates

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Start test ing or test more

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NO

Growth problems wil l disappear…

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A/B-test ing is not a solut ion

It’s a methodology

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I t ’s part of a:

Continuous

Optimization

Program

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I t ’s a way of working

It’s company DNA

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You need to know:

When

How

What

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Growth curve – how it was teached

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the

ROARmodel

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Optimizat ion phases - ROAR

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

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Optimizat ion phases - ROAR

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

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Optimizat ion phases - ROAR

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

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Optimizat ion phases - ROAR

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk

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Optimizat ion phases - ROAR

Time span

Co

nve

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ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk + Optimization

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Optimizat ion phases - ROAR

Time span

Co

nve

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ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk + Optimization + Automation

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Optimizat ion phases - ROAR

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think

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Optimizat ion phases - ROAR

Time span

Co

nve

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ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think

1.000 conversions

per month

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Optimizat ion phases - ROAR

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think

10.000 conversions

per month

1.000 conversions

per month

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How much impact do you need?

http://ondi.me/size

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Optimizat ion phases - ROAR

Time span

Co

nve

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ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think

10.000 conversions

per month

1.000 conversions

per month

15% impact

needed

5% impact

needed

Impact needed: all conversions with an average conversion rate of 2%, a test length of 3 weeks and a power of 80%

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Optimizat ion phases - ROAR

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think

1.000 conversions

per month

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Phase 1: br idge the gap – Risk

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Phase 1: br idge the gap – Risk

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Get out of the off ice

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Risk

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Yes, I ’ve got those 1000+ conversions

Time span

Co

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r m

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Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think

1.000 conversions

per month

10.000 conversions

per month

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With 1000+ conversions a month

Your tes t capac i t y is max.

20+ tests a year

wi th a s ta t i s t i ca l power o f 80%

on pred ic ted up l i f t s o f 15%

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Tests with measurable impact

On average

1 out of 3

Simple truth: you’re just not always able to create a winner with enough impact

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So in this case, you’ve got impact

Every 7 or 8 weeks

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Slower? Energy wil l run out!And your continous optimization program will die

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What to test? Business cases!

Delivery –test with

in stock. 4 weeks

or 2 days?

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What to test? Business cases!

Service charge, do

it or not? Include in

price or not?

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What to test? Big design changes

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ROAR – Optimizat ion – moving up

Time span

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Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think

1.000 conversions

per month

10.000 conversions

per month

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Final ly you can test detai ls…

Is Multi Variate Testing (which is also A/B-testing but with more varations) a good idea? Almost never!

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You should grow to

Customer Buying Reasons

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Reasons behind the customer journey

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A continuous optimizat ion team

Analyst Psychologyst

Designer Developer

Team Lead

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They keep on asking:

Why are these users here?

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And they want to know

How they can

help their users’ brains

to fullf i l their needs?

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Data & Psychology

Digital Data Persuasion Psychology

Analyze

&

Experiment

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A lack of resources

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Testing takes resources

Use it to LEARN

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FA C T & A C T

&

TellConcludeAnalyze

TestCreateAnalyzeFind

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A n d t h e n s t a r t : FA C T & A C T

&

TellConcludeAnalyze

TestCreateAnalyzeFindFind

Your optimization team needs a good analyst / researcher

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Many sources out there to Find

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FA C T & A C T

&

TellConcludeAnalyze

TestCreateAnalyzeFind Analyze

Really a good analyst / researcher!

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Use your analyt ics data

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Create heatmaps

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Create screen recordings

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To find out: The cr i t ical spots

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FA C T & A C T

&

TellConcludeAnalyze

TestCreateAnalyzeFind Create

And yes, your team needs an economic / consumer Psychologyst and a UX designer

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Source: Psychology

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Two systems

107

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Two systems that intervene

108

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System 1 taking over

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And the automated respons rules

110

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Even when i t ’s wrong

111

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Use that persuasion knowledge

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Tests that can be done

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Tests that can be done

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Tests that can be done

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Tests that can be done

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Tests that can be done

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Tests that can be done

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Tests that can be done

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Tests that can be done

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Tests that can be done

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Tests that can be done

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Tests that can be done

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

FA C T & A C T

&

TellConcludeAnalyze

TestCreateAnalyzeFind Test

And your team needs a good front-end developer

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Get your A/B-solut ion in p lace

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

You need Front end development

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

FA C T & A C T

&

TellConcludeAnalyze

TestCreateAnalyzeFind

Analyze

Your analyst will analyze the results

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Look at detai ls

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

FA C T & A C T

&

TellCombineAnalyze

TestCreateAnalyzeFind

TellConclude

Your psychologyst should conclude and your conversion lead should tell

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Store your learnings

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Push your behavioral insights

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Everyone should use your knowledge!

Data Insights Action

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

+ Optimization + Automation

Back to the ROAR model

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk Re-think

1.000 conversions

per month

10.000 conversions

per month

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

ROAR – Optimizat ion – moving up

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think

1.000 conversions

per month

10.000 conversions

per month

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Now you’re test ing

On your way to

4 tests a week

Max capacity with 1 teammember on each discipline: analyst, ux, developer, psychologyst

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Test capacity

maximum number of

experiments per yearthat your site or app

can handle

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Regret

amount of money

you are losing per year by

not using your full test capacity

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

ROAR – Automation

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think

1.000 conversions

per month

10.000 conversions

per month

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Automation

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

You tested which locations are cr i t ical

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

You know which dialogues are cr i t ical

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Automation

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Now you’ve moved to

Algorithm testing

Which internal and external influencers do have an impact on which segment of users?

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

+ Optimization + Automation

ROAR – Automation

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk Re-think

1.000 conversions

per month

10.000 conversions

per month

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

ROAR – You don’t stop optimizing

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think

1.000 conversions

per month

10.000 conversions

per month

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

ROAR – Re-think

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think

1.000 conversions

per month

10.000 conversions

per month

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

A/B-test ing is the ult imate resource

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

More experiments

“If you double the number of

experiments you do per year

you’re going to double your

inventiveness”

Jeff Bezos, CEO Amazon

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

CRO brings user knowledge

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Store your learnings

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

You wil l make big impact on Discover

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Now, that ’s

HOT

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Now, that ’s

HOT

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Done test ing?

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Done test ing? No!

TESTING NEVER STOPS

Okay, end of life, cash cow, no need for any further growth accelaration or user knowledge

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

A/B-test ing

Minimize regret

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Test as much as you can

Time span

Co

nve

rsio

ns

pe

r m

on

th

Risk + Optimization + Automation Re-think

10.000 conversions

per month

1.000 conversions

per month

15% impact

needed

5% impact

needed

Impact needed: all conversions with an average conversion rate of 2%, a test length of 3 weeks and a power of 80%

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Like Amazon, Like ZalandoG

erm

an

Ecom

me

rce

mark

et,

thank

you

An

dré

Mory

s

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Experimenting is a way of working

It’s company DNA

T o n W e s s e l i n g | @ T o n W R u n m o r e e x p e r i m e n t s # i l i v e 2 0 1 5

Run more experiments

i L i v e L a t v i a , R i g a , N o v e m b e r 1 2 t h 2 0 1 5

To n W e s s e l i n g – C E O – Te s t i n g . A g e n c y

# i L i v e 2 0 1 5 - @ To n W

Run more experiments