Wheat July 25, 2011. Wheat is not wheat Outlook Bold predictions 2012.
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Transcript of Wheat July 25, 2011. Wheat is not wheat Outlook Bold predictions 2012.
Wheat
July 25, 2011
• Wheat is not wheat • Outlook• Bold predictions• 2012
high protein vs. low protein
red vs. white
hard vs. soft
common vs. durum
food vs. feed
Wheat is not wheat
World Outlook: Wheat stocks are comfortable, but declining for the second year in a row.
Quiz Time!Which country is the largest wheat exporter in the world?
A. Canada
B. United States
C. Russia
D. Australia
Quiz Time!
A. Canada
B. United States
C. Russia
D. Australia
→
Which country is the largest wheat exporter in the world?
Argentina10%
Australia16%
Canada17%
EU15%
Russia4%
Ukraine2%
Kazakhstan3%
United States27%
other8%
Key Wheat Exporters, share of World Exports, 1997-2001
Argentina6%
Australia11%
Canada13%
EU15%
Russia10%Ukraine
5%
Kazakhstan5%
United States23%
other11%
Key Wheat Exporters, share of World Exports, 2007-2011
U.S. Outlook: Wheat stocks are comfortable, but declining for the second year in a row.
U.S. Wheat Highlights
• HRW –smallest crop since 2006 (yields ) • HRS – smallest crop in 4 years (acres and yields ) • SRW – 2nd largest crop in 10 years (acres & yields ) • SWW – largest crop in six years (acres & yields )• Durum – 2nd smallest crop since 1988 (acres )
hard vs. soft
high protein vs. low protein
Wheat is not wheat
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
(150)
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
HRS Protein Premiums at the MGEX, 1970-2010 crop years
15% protein premium 13% protein discount
Pre
miu
m o
r d
isc
ou
nt
to 1
4%
pro
tein
va
lue
s (
ce
nts
/bu
)
2703
1
2739
5
2776
2
2812
9
2849
4
2885
9
2922
4
2959
0
2995
5
3032
0
3068
5
3105
0
3141
6
3178
1
3214
6
3251
2
3287
7
3324
2
3360
7
3397
3
3433
8
3470
3
3506
9
3544
1
3581
3
3619
1
3655
5
3692
1
3727
7
3764
9
3801
3
3837
9
3874
0
3911
2
3947
3
3983
4
4020
6
4054
4(150)
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
Minneapolis and Chicago Nearby Wheat Futures, Premium or Discount to Kansas City Futures, 1993-2010
Series1
Series2
ce
nts
pe
r b
us
he
l
Chicago
Minneapolis
Bold predictions
Quiz Time!After corn, which grain is most commonly used as feed in the U.S. and in the world?
A. Barley
B. Oats
C. Sorghum
D. other
Quiz Time!After corn, which grain is most commonly used as feed in the U.S. and in the world?
A. Barley
B. Oats
C. Sorghum
D. other (wheat!)→
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011 pro
j.0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%World Wheat Feeding as a Percent of Production, 1979-2011
Marketing Year
Fe
ed
ing
as
a p
erc
en
t o
f p
rod
uc
tio
n
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 pro
j.0
100
200
300
400
500
600U.S. Wheat Feed & Residual, 1990-2011m
illio
n b
ush
els
USDA figures
Is there room for even more wheat feeding in the year ahead?
Jan-74Jan-75Jan-76Jan-77Jan-78Jan-79Jan-80Jan-81Jan-82Jan-83Jan-84Jan-85Jan-86Jan-87Jan-88Jan-89Jan-90Jan-91Jan-92Jan-93Jan-94Jan-95Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
190%
200%
210%
220%
230%
240%
250%CBOT Nearby Wheat/Corn Futures Price Ratio, 1974-2011
Long term aver-age
The CBOT July wheat contract averaged 97% of the July corn contract in the month of June, the lowest ratio in my records.
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
190%
200%
210%
220%
230%
240%
250%KCBOT Nearby Wheat/Corn Futures Price Ratio, 1974-2011
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
190%
200%
210%
220%
230%
240%
250%KCBOT Nearby Wheat/Corn Futures Price Ratio, 1974-2011
Wheat feeding in 1977/78 is greater than the previous 3 years combined.
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
190%
200%
210%
220%
230%
240%
250%KCBOT Nearby Wheat/Corn Futures Price Ratio, 1974-2011
Wheat feeding in 1984/85 tops 400 mb for the first time ever.
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
190%
200%
210%
220%
230%
240%
250%KCBOT Nearby Wheat/Corn Futures Price Ratio, 1974-2011
…and again tops 400 mb in 1986/87.
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
190%
200%
210%
220%
230%
240%
250%KCBOT Nearby Wheat/Corn Futures Price Ratio, 1974-2011
Wheat feeding in 1990/91 reaches 500 mb.
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
190%
200%
210%
220%
230%
240%
250%KCBOT Nearby Wheat/Corn Futures Price Ratio, 1974-2011
The last three years when wheat feeding topped 300 mb.
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
160%
170%
180%
190%
200%
210%
220%
230%
240%
250%KCBOT Nearby Wheat/Corn Futures Price Ratio, 1974-2011
Wheat feeding of 220 mb in 2011/12?
100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160% 170% 180% 190% 200%0
100
200
300
400
500
600
U.S. Wheat Fed vs. KCBOT Wheat/CBOT Corn Nearby Futures Ratio, 1990-2010 crop years
KCBOT Nearby Wheat/CBOT Nearby Corn Futures (crop year average)
mill
ion
bush
els
1990
2007
2011 proj.
2012
• HRW – plant in the dust?• The future of the Canadian Wheat Board
[In Canada], the federal government intends to end the Canadian Wheat Board’s monopoly on wheat and barley by August 2012 and thereby permit western farmers to sell on an open market if they wish, just as farmers in the United States and throughout Europe do.
WINNIPEG FREE PRESS JUNE 11, 2011
The future of the Canadian Wheat Board
• Wheat is not wheat • Outlook: Wheat stocks are comfortable,
but declining for the 2nd year in a row.• Bold predictions: We will feed more
wheat and, as goes the price of corn, so goes the price of wheat
• 2012