What’s The Deal?

Labor and Employee Relations in the Trump Era

SHRM Legislative and Legal Conference | March 2017Phillip B. Wilson, Labor Relations Institute, Inc.

Michael VanDervort, CUE Inc.

LOW ER/LR RISKAND

LOW PR RISK

Should I Sleep at Night?Now that the NLRB, Congress and DOL are in Republican control, how concerned should I be about labor issues?

Head to Starbucks.Grab a coffee. Take good notes.

Grab a flask.

LOW ER/LR RISKOR

LOW PR RISK

MED ER/LR RISKAND

MED PR RISK

HIGH ER/LR RISK OR

HIGH PR RISK

HIGH ER/LR RISK AND

HIGH PR RISK

ER = Employee RelationsPR = Public RelationsLR = Labor Relations

Union Membership At All-Time Low

• Total membership fell from 11.1% in 2015 to 10.7% in 2016, and private-sector membership fell from 6.7% to 6.4%

• Many union members do not align with their union’s political bent

• Trump flipped “Blue Wall” States PA, OH, WI, MI

• Exit polls: Trump won 43% of union households (Clinton only 51%)

• Trump 4% better than Romney 2012

• Clinton 9% worse than Obama 2012

Kansas

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Michigan

Iowa

Texas

Arkansas

Lousiana

Alabama

Tennessee

S. Carolina

N. Carolina

Virginia

Missouri

IndianaOhio

Kentucky

Pennsylvania

40%Trump47.6 47.3

43%Trump47.9 46.9

43%Trump

*48.8 47.6

54%Trump52.1 43.5

Source: CNN Exit polls*NOTE: National average - No exit poll data on union households in PA

©2017 Labor Relations Institute, LRIonline.com

How Union Members Elected Trump

Good News For Business Community?

Is the Glass Half-Full…

• NLRB and DOL will roll back Obama era regulations, decisions

• Administration will "dismantle" bureaucracy, reduce size and scope of DOL, NLRB

• Traditional left supporters (labor unions, academics) overwhelmed by populism

• Right to work, Janus or Rauner, etc. deal structural death blows to unions

Or Half-Empty?• Administration so disorganized,

crisis prone – no focus on NLRB, DOL

• Urge to deal with unions on infrastructure, immigration, trade, creates pressure to "play nice"

• Backlash against administration builds support for unions, academics (left-wing populism)

• Mid-term elections dismantle Trump "coalition" – stops any progress

Does Trump Deserve Credit For Saving Jobs?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/business/economy/trump-jobs.html?ref=business

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/business/economy/trump-jobs.html?ref=business

Does Trump Deserve Credit For Saving Jobs?

• Silicon Valley companies support suit against travel ban (or pause)

• Immigration Policy Raises Concerns

• ACA Repeal or Replace Uncertainty

Trump’s early moves trigger business backlash

Labor's Dilemma… How Close to Get to Trump?

What worries me? How NOT worried this guy is.

• Watch this video http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/03/01/afl-cio-president-trumka-unions-will-help-trump-rewrite-rules-economy.html

What the heck is populism?

• Political doctrine based on power of “common people” versus political and economic “elites”

• Can be right, left or centrist (Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Occupy Wall Street)

• Typically democratic (US Revolution, French Revolution, Joseph McCarthy)

• Sometimes Authoritarian, Facist, or Socialist (Hugo Chavez, Xi Jinping)

1. Think big2. Maximize the options3. Use your leverage4. Get the word out5. Fight back6. Deliver the goods7. Contain costs, protect downside8. Have Fun

https://qz.com/894419/trumps-border-wall-is-a-negotiating-tactic-straight-out-of-his-book-the-art-of-the-deal/

“I keep a lot of balls in the air, because most deals fall out, no matter how promising they seem at first.”Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal

Negotiator In ChiefPresident Trump Already Taught Us How He'll Do Deals

❤ Businesses Unions (AFSCME, SEIU, 🚫NEA) Environmentalists🚫Rally Point for Left (anti-Populist)

Anti-Regulation Trump

1

🚫 Most Businesses Most Unions🚫 World Community🚫 Immigrants🚫 ❤ Trump’s Base

“Build a Wall” Trump

❤ Manufacturers 🚫

Retailers/Consumers ❤ UnionsBig PR Risks

Trade Deal Trump

2

❤ Construction/Energy Co’s ❤ Construction Unions Service Unions🚫 Environmentalists🚫 Deficit Hawks🚫

Infrastructure Trump

4

Which Trump(s) Will We Get? 3

What labor and employment policy changes should I

expect under Trump?

Puzder Takedown• Unions targeted from the

start• Fast food billionaire (not very

populist)• Anti-regulation (minimum

wage, overtime)• Horrible vetting• Gave left (especially

Elizabeth Warren) easy target

Puzder: Down in Flames. Here's How Acosta Stacks Up.

• The Anti-Puzder• Hearing March 15• First Hispanic on

Trump’s Cabinet• Unions support him• Sided with unions 67%

of time sided when at NLRB

• Also worked at DOJ• May be more accepting

of workplace regulation

DOL Changes to expect

• Blacklisting = DOA• Persuader rule – dead• Overtime rule – probably

dead• Decreased funding for

enforcement, outreach• Likely end of “strategic

enforcement”• Minimum wage? Paid leave?

Maybe…

The NLRB

Miscimarra – Term Expires December 17, 2017

McFerrin – Term Expires December 16, 2019

Pearce – Term Expires August 27, 2018

Griffin (GC) – Term Expires November 4, 2017

Potential nominees for 2 open seats

Doug SeatonSeaton, Peters, Revnew

Marvin KaplanOSHA

Bill EmanuelLittler

• Quickie Election Rule

• Specialty Healthcare (Community of Interest Standard)

• Joint Employer• Email• Employee

Handbooks• Privacy –

Confidentiality• Class Action

Waiver

• Graduate Assistant, College Student Athlete Jurisdiction

• Management Rights

• Successor Employer

• Definition of Supervisor

• Replacement Workers

• Dues Obligation Post-Contract

Key Issues New NLRB Will Target

Next WE Apex2023

PendulumLast ME Apex 1983

Next ME Apex 2063

I’m OK, You’re Not OK(Witch Hunt)

I’m OK, You’re OK(Rainbows and Unicorns)

I’m Not OK, You’re not OK(We’re Both Broken)

I’m Not OK, You’re OK(Hero Worship)

Assessing your risk profile

LOWER RISK• Lower external union vulnerability (geography, industry, competitors)

• Lower internal union vulnerability (engagement, treatment, etc.)

• Lower risk of PR pressure (privately held, low public profile, customers don't care, community doesn’t care)

Your risk profile is determined by your internal and external vulnerability to union activity AND your overall sensitivity to negative PR events.

MEDIUM RISK• Higher risk of union activity (geography, industry, competitors); OR

• Higher internal union vulnerability (engagement, treatment, etc.); AND

• Lower risk of PR pressure (privately held, low public profile, customers don't care, community doesn’t care)

MEDIUM RISK• Lower risk of union activity (geography, industry, competitors)

• Lower internal union vulnerability (engagement, treatment, etc.)

• Higher risk of PR pressure (publicly held, high public profile, customers care, community cares)

HIGHER RISK• Higher risk of union activity (geography, industry, competitors); AND

• Higher internal union vulnerability (engagement, treatment, etc.); AND

• Higher risk of PR pressure (publicly held, high public profile, customers care, community cares)

LaborEmployment

Risk

PR Risk

Lower

Higher

HigherLower

Facing uncertainty, constant change, disengagement, and turnover? Approachable leaders positively impact each of these challenges.

Connection1 Are your first level leaders comfortable dealing with disruptions at work? These are moments that make or break organizations and relationships.

Disruption2

Action plan? Focus “Left of Boom”

None of us is smarter that all of us. Network with others at SHRM, CUE, and other industry groups to keep up with what’s next.

Network3

“Left of Boom” Strategies

Integrated

Strategies

Employer of Choice

Brand & Reputation Manageme

nt

Union Campaign

Ready Corporate Campaign

Ready

Worker Center Specific

Daily Actions MatterWork HR and managers can (and should) do daily!

• Say Hello, Please and Thank You• Be approachable• Resolve Problems Early (Open Door)• Active safety programs• Active employee recognition• Employee feedback process and action on feedback• Supervisory training and monitoring• Active management communications process in place• Employee engagement process• Audit for consistent policy administration and trust in supervision

101

Michael VanDervortExecutive DirectorCUE Inc. – an organization for positive employee relations863-370-3560Mvandervort@cueinc.com

Website:CUEinc.comTwitter: @MikeVanDervortLinkedIn:LinkedIn.com/in/michaelvandervort

Phillip WilsonPresident

Labor Relations InstituteFounder

Approachable Leadership800-888-9115

pbwilson@LRIonline.com

Websites:LRIonline.com

ApproachableLeadership.comTwitter:

@ApproachableLDRLinkedIn:

Linkedin.com/in/pbwilson

Keep in Touch!