What’s Next for In-Fill Housing San Francisco? .pdf1.6 million new residents in Bay Area by 2035...
Transcript of What’s Next for In-Fill Housing San Francisco? .pdf1.6 million new residents in Bay Area by 2035...
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What’s Next for In-Fill Housing
in
San Francisco?
June 21st, 2010
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Over 225 communities in the Bay Area since 1979, we’ve seen changes in urban housing in
the last 3 decadesTuesday, October 5, 2010
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MUSEUM PARC
San Francisco, CA
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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HARBOR LOFTS
San Francisco, CA
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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PORTSIDE
San Francisco, CA
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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GLASSWORKS
San Francisco, CA
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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ONE RINCON HILL
San Francisco, CA
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Overview
Housing Formula
Where We Are Today
What It Means For The Future
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Formula for Housing
Can be complicated
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Formula for Housing
Let’s make it simple
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Formula for Housing
Let’s make it simple
The essentials:
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Formula for Housing
Let’s make it simple
The essentials:
Demand
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Formula for Housing
Let’s make it simple
The essentials:
Demand
Supply
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Formula for Housing
Let’s make it simple
The essentials:
Demand
Supply
Capital
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Formula for Housing - Demand
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Formula for Housing - Demand
Attractive climate and city
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Formula for Housing - Demand
Attractive climate and city
Innovative economy
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Formula for Housing - Demand
Attractive climate and city
Innovative economy
High quality of life
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Formula for Housing - Demand
Source: City-Data
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Income to Qualify for a Home
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Income to Qualify for a Home
SF Median Household Income: $87,127
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Formula for Housing - Demand
Historically Low Interest Rates
Source: Federal Housing Finance Board’s MIRS
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Where We Are Today
Source: SF MLS
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Where We Are Today
Source: SF MLS
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Marketing Strategy ExecutiveSuites
• Age: 35-54• Education: College Graduate• Kids: HH w/o Kids• Ethnicity: White, Asian, Mix• Marital Status: Singles/Couples• Social Group: The Affluentials• Media: Shape Magazine, The Amazing Race• Lifestyle: Shop at Express
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Marketing Strategy Movers&Shakers
• Age: 35-54• Education: Graduate plus• Kids: HH w/o Kids• Ethnicity: White, Asian, Mix• Marital Status: Couples• Social Group: Elite Suburbs• Media: Inc. Magazine, internet• Lifestyle: Scuba diving, snorkeling
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Marketing Strategy Money&Brains
• Age: 45-64• Education: Graduate plus• Kids: Family mix• Ethnicity: White, Asian, Hispanic, Mix• Marital Status: Married• Social Group: Urban Uptown• Media: Sunday newspaper, Wall Street Week TV• Lifestyle: Shop at Nordstrom
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Where We Are Today
Source: SF Planning
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Formula for Housing - Supply
Supply constrained Market….
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Formula for Housing - Supply
Supply constrained Market….
• Geography
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Formula for Housing - Supply
Supply constrained Market….
• Geography
• City government
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Formula for Housing - Supply
Supply constrained Market….
• Geography
• City government
• Labor and Construction Cost
• Available Financing
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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“D” Day… New Financing Stopped – Sept. 2008
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Where We Are Today
May 2010
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Where We Are Today
May 2010
?
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Where We Are Today
Source: SF Planning Dept, “Pipeline Report Q4 2009”
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Formula for Housing - Capital
Who Will Provide Construction Financing
When Will Capital Markets Returning to Lending
Personal Guarantees-will they be required
Is the Traditional Financing Structure Available
•Equity
•Mezzanine Debt
•Construction Loan
Where does this leave us?
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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How Do We Move Forward?
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Clearing Financial Hurdles
Anticipated Sequence of New Projects
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Clearing Financial Hurdles
Anticipated Sequence of New Projects
• Stick build
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Clearing Financial Hurdles
Anticipated Sequence of New Projects
• Stick build
• High density
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Clearing Financial Hurdles
Anticipated Sequence of New Projects
• Stick build
• High density
• Phase-able/Finance-able
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Clearing Financial Hurdles
Anticipated Sequence of New Projects
• Stick build
• High density
• Phase-able/Finance-able
• Podium product
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Clearing Financial Hurdles
Anticipated Sequence of New Projects
• Stick build
• High density
• Phase-able/Finance-able
• Podium product
• Mid-rise
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Clearing Financial Hurdles
Anticipated Sequence of New Projects
• Stick build
• High density
• Phase-able/Finance-able
• Podium product
• Mid-rise
• High-rise
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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What Does This Mean For The Future
New locations vs. existing ones
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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What Does This Mean For The Future
New locations vs. existing ones
Museum Parc
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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What Does This Mean For The Future
New locations vs. existing ones
Museum Parc Mission Bay
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What Does This Mean For The Future
New locations vs. existing ones
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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What Does This Mean For The Future
New locations vs. existing ones
Treasure Island
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What Does This Mean For The Future
New locations vs. existing ones
Treasure Island Hunter’s Points
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What Does This Mean For The Future
Low-rise vs high-rise
900 Folsom 555 Washington
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What Does This Mean For The Future
Low-rise vs high-rise
APPROVED
900 Folsom 555 Washington
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What Does This Mean For The Future
Low-rise vs high-rise
APPROVED
900 Folsom
OPPOSED
555 Washington
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What Does This Mean For The Future
Transit oriented design
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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What Does This Mean For The Future
Transit oriented design
Ocean View Village
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What Does This Mean For The Future
Transit oriented design
5800 3rd Street
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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What Does This Mean For The Future
Transit oriented design
Transbay Terminal•12 Block Parcels
•1,750 for sale homes entitled by SF
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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What Does This Mean For The Future
Living small and green
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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What Does This Mean For The Future
Living small and green
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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What Does This Mean For The Future
Living small and green
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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What Does This Mean For The Future
New ways to finance construction
• Pre-Sale Online
• Standardized Shell Modules
• Customized Areas, Floorplans
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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What Does This Mean For The Future
New ways to finance construction
• Pre-Sale Online
• Standardized Shell Modules
• Customized Areas, Floorplans
Satisfy Pre-Sale Hurdles Prior To
Construction
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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What Does This Mean For The Future
Modular design
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Housing Needs
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Housing Needs
1.6 million new residents in Bay Area by 2035 (64,700 per year)
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Housing Needs
1.6 million new residents in Bay Area by 2035 (64,700 per year)
1.6 million new jobs to be added to the Bay Area by 2035
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Housing Needs
1.6 million new residents in Bay Area by 2035 (64,700 per year)
1.6 million new jobs to be added to the Bay Area by 2035
Bay Area: 214,500 units needed by 2014
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Housing Needs
1.6 million new residents in Bay Area by 2035 (64,700 per year)
1.6 million new jobs to be added to the Bay Area by 2035
Bay Area: 214,500 units needed by 2014
San Francisco: 31,193 units needed by 2014
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Housing Needs
1.6 million new residents in Bay Area by 2035 (64,700 per year)
1.6 million new jobs to be added to the Bay Area by 2035
Bay Area: 214,500 units needed by 2014
San Francisco: 31,193 units needed by 2014
Source: Association of Bay Area Governments, “San Francisco Bay Area: Housing Needs Plan 2007-2014”
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Where We Are Today
?
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Summary
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Summary
Capital is the missing ingredient
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Summary
Capital is the missing ingredient
Supply Pipeline…when will it restart?
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Summary
Capital is the missing ingredient
Supply Pipeline…when will it restart?
Using Innovation to open market and lower risk
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Summary
Capital is the missing ingredient
Supply Pipeline…when will it restart?
Using Innovation to open market and lower risk
Engaging Policy makers to provide Support
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Summary
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Summary
Alternative locations…look to the South.
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Summary
Alternative locations…look to the South.
Smaller sized homes, multi-family is the answer
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Summary
Alternative locations…look to the South.
Smaller sized homes, multi-family is the answer
Transit orientation and shared common area amenities
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Summary
Alternative locations…look to the South.
Smaller sized homes, multi-family is the answer
Transit orientation and shared common area amenities
Standardized systems and designs
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Summary
Alternative locations…look to the South.
Smaller sized homes, multi-family is the answer
Transit orientation and shared common area amenities
Standardized systems and designs
Presale programming
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
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Summary
Alternative locations…look to the South.
Smaller sized homes, multi-family is the answer
Transit orientation and shared common area amenities
Standardized systems and designs
Presale programming
Joint Ventures with Public agencies
Tuesday, October 5, 2010