What’s New in Forecast Pro TRAC V4s New In TRAC V4.pdf · 2015. 7. 20. · Numeric Output (all...
Transcript of What’s New in Forecast Pro TRAC V4s New In TRAC V4.pdf · 2015. 7. 20. · Numeric Output (all...
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Business Forecast Systems, Inc.68 Leonard StreetBelmont, MA 02478 USALast Revised: July 13, 2015© Copyright 1999-2015 All Rights Reserved
What’s New in Forecast Pro TRAC V4
James BerryPhone: (617) 484-5050Fax: (617) 484-9219E-mail: [email protected] site: www.forecastpro.com
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Director of Training at Business Forecast Systems, Inc. (BFS).
Holds a degree in Economics from the University of Chicago.
During his 12 year tenure with the firm, James has worked with
numerous clients representing a wide range of industries,
helping them to implement and improve their forecasting
processes. His current clients include Thermo Fisher Scientific,
FedEx Ground, Arysta Life Sciences, Irving Oil and Honeywell.
James Berry
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Upgrading from Forecast Pro TRAC version 3 to version 4
The data manager
Custom allocation
Improvements to the Override Grid
Displaying archived forecast values
Rounding to whole numbers
Modeling Improvements
Component Models
New Product Forecasting
Constant level Exponential Smoothing models
Workshop Outline
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Upgrading from TRAC V3 to V4
“"The beginning is the most important part of the work.
- Plato
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Upgrading from Forecast Pro TRAC version 3 to version 4 is easy and direct.
Save and close your project in Version 3
Open your project in Version 4
Check to make sure the Data Manager is populated correctly
Go to File>Save As and save a new version 4 copy of your project
Once your project is saved in version 4, it will no longer work in version 3
Steps to Upgrade
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The Options Dialog Box has adapted to the new settings available in Forecast Pro TRAC Version 4.
The Options Dialog Box
No Longer Specify theData Format
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The Options Dialog Box
The Input Data Can NowBe Sorted as it is Read
Into Forecast Pro
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The Options Dialog Box
The New Constant LevelModel Can be Disabled
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The Data Manager lists the data file(s) you wish to import into Forecast Pro. The Historic Data is required, all other files are optional. Click the red Script icon ( ) to call up the Data Manager dialog box.
The Data Manager
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When you upgrade from Forecast Pro TRAC version 3 to version 4, you no longer need a secondary file. When you upgrade, the secondary file will be listed in the Conversions, Filters, and Definitions sections. You will want to remove the file where it is not being used.
The Data Manager: Upgrading
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Data Movement
Historic Data FilesExcel (.XLSX, .XLS)
Text (.MLT, CSV)
ODBC
TRAC
Output FilesNumeric Output (all input
formats and XML)
Forecast Report (Excel)
Tracking Report (Excel)
Override Report (Excel)
Exception Report (Excel)
Outlier Report (Excel)
Hotlist (Excel)
TRAC Project FilesForecast Project (.FPProj)
Forecast Archive (.DB)
Forecast Document (.FCB)
External Data FilesFilters (Excel,.CSV,ODBC)
Conversions (Excel,.CSV,ODBC)
Custom Allocation (Excel,.CSV,ODBC)
Integer Rounding (Excel,.CSV,ODBC)
External Data (Excel,.CSV,ODBC)
Overrides (Excel,.CSV,ODBC)
Modifiers (Excel,.CSV,ODBC)
Hotlist (Excel,.CSV,ODBC)
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Custom Allocation
“You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created.
-Albert Einstein
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Bottom-up aggregation. Create model-based forecasts at the lower level. Construct upper level forecasts by summing nested lower level forecasts.
Top-down aggregation. First, create a model-based forecast at the top level by forecasting the aggregated history. Then, create model-based forecasts at the lower levels. Finally, apply proportionality factors to lower-level forecasts so that the forecasts sum to the top-level forecast.
Custom Allocation. The user imports the allocations to use when distributing a group level forecast.
Aggregation
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Entries are quantities forecast
Model-Based Bottom-Up Top-Down Custom Allocation
(50-50)
6 Packs 70 70 84 60
12 Packs 30 30 36 60
Cans 120 100 120 120
Reconciliation Techniques
Cans
12 Packs6 Packs
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Overrides
When you have your name attached to a prediction your incentives may change.
- Nate Silver”
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Systems Rows Dialog Box
This Systems Row Dialog Box allows you to:
Display previously generated forecasts in the override grid
Round the forecasts to the nearest, pre-defined integer
The Previous ForecastsTo Display
Select Which PreviousForecasts are Displayed
Round Using the Integer Scheme
Start the Rounding atThe Beginning of the
History
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A header row is required. The IRQ column must be present and labeled accordingly.
If you do not specify a rounding quantity, Forecast Pro will use the default rounding quantity.
Integer Rounding Quantity (IRQ)- Excel File Layout
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IF(condition, value1, value2) - Returns value1 if condition is true or value2 if condition is false
SUM(x, y, …) - Returns the sum of the specified set of values
AVERAGE(x, y, …) - Returns the average of the specified set of values
ABS(n) - Returns the absolute value of n
SIGN(n) - Determines the sign of n. Returns 1 if n is positive, 0 if n is zero, and -1 is n is negative.
SQR(n) - Returns n squared
SQRT(n) - Returns the square root of n
INT(n) - Rounds n down to the nearest integer
TRUNC(n) - Truncates n to an integer
ROUND(n, decimal places) - Rounds n to the specified number of decimal places
MIN(x, y, …) - Returns the smallest value in the specified set of values
MAX(x, y, …) - Returns the largest value in the specified set of values
MEDIAN(x, y, …) - Returns the median of the specified set of values
MODE(n) - Returns the mode (most frequently occurring value) of the specified set of values
Supported Override Formulas
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Forecast Pro also has custom tokens to quickly reference certain numbers:
FORECAST - Forecast row
STAT - Statistical forecast row
BASE - Baseline forecast row
OVR# - Override row “#”
HIST# - The historic row “#” years prior
SAFETY - The safety stock at the item’s specified lead time
SAFETY_ALL - The safety stock corresponding to the lead time of the current cell
DDLT - The demand during the item’s specified lead time
DDLT_ALL - The demand corresponding to the lead time of the current cell
REORDER - The reorder point at the item’s specified lead time
REORDER_ALL - The reorder point corresponding to the lead time of the current cell
YTD - Returns the calendar Year-to-Date value, using the historical value, and adjusted value
CONV – The Conversion factor
MAD - The within-sample mean absolute deviation
Override Tokens
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Forecast Pro also has custom tokens to quickly reference certain numbers:
INHER- The inherited overrides row
LOWER - The lower confidence limit based on the adjusted forecast
UPPER - The upper confidence limit based on the adjusted forecast
LEADTIME – The leadtime
HISTFC - Returns either the history value, if available, or the forecast value
MOD_MOI - Croston's model mean order interval
MOD_MOS - Croston's model mean order size
MEAN - The mean of the historic data
STDEV - The standard deviation of the historic data
Override Tokens (continued)
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Constant Level Smoothing
“Time present and time past are bothperhaps present in time future and time
future contained in time past.- T.S. Eliot
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This model will set the level smoothing coefficient to a very small number
The model helps when you have items with zero or very low demand for parts of the year
Constant Level
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Component Model
Whatever good things we build end up
building us.
-Jim Rohn”
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In a Custom Component Model, you have the ability to either let Forecast Pro estimate the final values for a given component or to customize the values to be used.
The model is based on the components found in an Exponential Smoothing Model
Level
Trend
Seasonality
Events
Component Model
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Custom Component Models can be used to:
Customize the trend
Set the seasonal pattern
Share the seasonal pattern of one item with another
Define the volume impact of events
Component Model Uses
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The Component Model Settings
Define the Seasonality
Name the Model
Set the initial valueequivalent to the Level of a smoothing model
Define the Trend
Assign an Event Schedule and define its impact
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You can choose the type of Trend you want to use by choosing from the dropdown. The 3 main options are:
None/No Trend
Linear Trend
Bent Trend
Customizing the Trend
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With a linear trend, you are growing/declining at a constant rate. This will appear as a straight line trend. You can set the growth rate 4 ways:
Slope – Set the consistent growth/decline per period.
End Point – Set the trend value of the last forecast point. Forecast Pro will connect the starting point to the end point with a straight line.
Total Forecast – Set the total volume for the entire forecast.
Current Year – Set the total for the current year (historic + forecast). The resultant trend will be continued beyond the current year if your forecast extends that far.
Note: the percent option is not available for linear trends
Linear Trend
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A bent trend is best thought of as a beginning point and end point. A bent trend requires you to define 2 components; a slope and any other definition of how fast the line bends up or down.
In a bent trend you set the starting and end points, then how quickly the trend “Bends”.
Bent Trend
0.000
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1000.000
1200.000
1400.000
1600.000
1800.000
2000.000
bend up
Linear
bend down
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You can define the seasonality by setting the Multiplicative Indexes for each period. These will indicate whether each period is above average or below average.
Customizing Seasonality
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The user needs to assign a pre-existing event schedule. The impact can be set either in units (additive) or as a percentage (multiplicative).
Customizing Events
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When applying a Component Model to multiple items, some considerations:
Starting Point – If you customize the starting point, you will be setting the initial level and this could lead to issues when applied to items with different volumes.
Trend – If you customize any option other than the slope, this could lead to issues when applied to items with different volumes.
Event – If you use customize the event indexes using Custom Additive, this could lead to issues when applied to items with different volumes.
Applying the Model to Multiple Items
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New Product Forecasting
When we create stuff, we do it because we listen to the customer, get their inputs and also throw in what we’d like to see,
too. We cook up new products.
- Steve Jobs”
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Assumes the initial demand pattern will be similar to an analogous product’s initial demand pattern or to a “launch profile” that you’ve created.
Can be used with or without historic demand.
When used without historic demand, an estimate of the initial sales over a specific period of time (the “launch total” over the “launch horizon”) is required.
If historic demand exists, the launch total can be estimated using the analogy series’ cumulative relative percentage.
Forecast by Analogy
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Take an existing item, and apply its “shape” to a new, similar product.
Forecast by Analogy
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20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
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160000
180000
200000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
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Specified Launch Total: Set the sum of the volume over the launch period.
Launch Horizon: Set the number of periods you want the volume to cover.
Launch Date: For items with no history, set the starting period.
Automatically Extend: If your schedule is too short, use Expert Selection to extend it.
Expert Selection After: Set an ending date when the Analogy model will be replaced by Expert Selection.
Align Seasonality: Make sure a seasonal analogy series lines up properly.
Forecast by Analogy Settings
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Analogy schedules can either be:
Imported from Excel
Created dynamically within Forecast Pro from an existing item’s
Historic Data
Forecast Data
Trend
Seasonality
Analogy Schedules
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Creating Analogy Schedules
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Conclusion
“It's more fun to arrive a conclusion than to justify it.
- Malcolm Forbes”
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Upgrading from Forecast Pro TRAC version 3 to version 4
New settings and data formats
The data manager
Improvements to the Override Grid
Displaying archived forecast values
Rounding to whole numbers
Modeling Improvements
Component Models
New Product Forecasting
Constant level Exponential Smoothing models
Conclusion
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BFS offers forecasting seminars, Webinars and product training workshops.
On-site, and remote-based (via WebEx) classes are available.
Learn more at www.forecastpro.com
Subscribe to our blog at theforecastpro.com
Forecasting Training and Workshops
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September 28 thru 30, 2015 in Boston Massachusetts USA
Monday, September 28th : Optional pre-conference workshopUnderstanding and Implementing the Forecasting Methods in Forecast Pro presented by Eric Stellwagen
Tuesday & Wednesday, September 29th and 30th : Main Conference featuring
Educational tutorials
User presentations
Forecast Pro demonstrations
Q&A panels
And much more
Forecast Pro User Conference 2015
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Forecast Pro User Conference 2015
September 28 thru 30, 2015 in Boston Massachusetts USA
A sample of the sessions being presented:
Unleashing the Power of the Override Grid
Improving Forecast Pro Performance
What Next? A Roadmap for Continuous Forecast Improvement
Case Study: Implementing Forecast Pro TRAC across Caterpillar’s Dealer Network
Intimate event with maximum of 60 users
Visit www.forecastpro.com for more info & to register; early bird discounts still available