What You Should Know About Air Quality Modeling
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What You Should Know What You Should Know About Air Quality ModelingAbout Air Quality Modeling
Tyler Cruickshank & Patrick BarickmanState of UtahDepartment of Environmental QualityDivision of Air Quality
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јA = σA(λ,T)ФA(λ,T)I(λ) dλ∫λ1
λ2
where,
јA is the First-order rate constant for photolysis (јA )
Objective 1: Objective 1: Derive each term of the first-order rate constant for winter-time photolysis .
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Modeling Atmospheric ChemistryModeling Atmospheric Chemistry
The Model - CMAQ?
What Are People Doing With CMAQ?
What You Should Know About CMAQ Results (Challenges).
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CMAQ
Simulates:
Gas phase: NO2, NO, O3, OH, VOC’s, …Aerosol Phase: NH4, NO3, OC, EC, …Wet DepositionDry Deposition
CMAQ is a 3-D Grid Based Model
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MM5 or WRFMM5 or WRF
Meteorology Interface Processor (MCIP)Meteorology Interface Processor (MCIP)- Interpolate met fields to CMAQ grid
CMAQCMAQInitial Chemistry ConditionsBoundary Chemistry ConditionsGas Phase ChemistryAerosol Chemistry
Emissions (SMOKE)Emissions (SMOKE)AreaPointMobileBiogenic
Too Much InterpolationNo Feedback
CMAQ Model StructureCMAQ Model Structure
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A Coupler Has Been Developed (but not released)
CMAQCMAQWRFWRFCMAQ “Calls”
Chemistry Feedback
Next Generation CMAQNext Generation CMAQ
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1) Pollution control strategies
2) Research
3) Operational air quality forecasting
CMAQ ApplicationsCMAQ Applications
Let’s look at some examples.Let’s look at some examples.
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Annual Ozone Mortalities (cardiopulmonary)Annual Ozone Mortalities (cardiopulmonary)
Mortalities/1000km Mortalities/1,000,000 people
Casper and West. CMAS 2008
Air Pollution & Health ImpactsAir Pollution & Health Impacts
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Lin 2008. CMAS 2008
Evaluation of Mercury Outflow from East Asia using CMAQ-Hg
Asian TransportAsian Transport
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Lightning NOx Emissions
Kaynak 2008. CMAS 2008
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Operational ForecastingOperational Forecasting
2.5 km5 km12 km
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Winter PM2.5Summer O3
Secondary pollutantsSecondary pollutants
Utah’s Air Quality Modeling ApplicationsUtah’s Air Quality Modeling Applications
Not just dust and “stuff”, but complex gaseous chemistrythat creates O3 and PM2.5.
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1. Chemistry based on “summer” laboratory data.
2. UV ground surface albedo & photolysis rates.
3. Poor western landuse data and biogenic emissions.
Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling ChallengesAtmospheric Chemistry Modeling Challenges
Examples:
Wont even talk about this challenge …NN
SSEE
WW
Salt Lake Valley
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► Model development history
Where:California, Eastern USOzone
When:Chemical Mechanisms: 1970’s – 1980’sFirst CMAQ: June 1998
► Today’s wide ranging applications & challenges
Chemistry Based on Summer Laboratory DataChemistry Based on “Summer” Laboratory DataChemistry Based on “Summer” Laboratory DataChallenge #1Challenge #1
CONUS 365 days/year
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UNKNOWN3%
AMMONIUM NITRATE
67%
AMMONIUM SULFATE
13%
CARBON16%
PM2.5: Ammonium Nitrate (NH4NO3)PM2.5: Ammonium Nitrate (NH4NO3)
Wasatch Front Inversion PM2.5 Components
Wasatch Front’s Winter-Time ChallengeWasatch Front’s Winter-Time Challenge
HNO3 + NH3
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Daytime Pathway to HNO3
O3 + λ -> O2 + 2 OHNO2 + OH -> HNO3
Nighttime Pathway to HNO3
N2O5 + H2O -> HNO3
N2O5 lab data performed at 293+ K
Ultra Violet (UV) Radiation
Ammonium Nitrate (NH4NO3) Particulate Ammonium Nitrate (NH4NO3) Particulate
1)
2)
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Ultraviolet Radiation ultimately creates O3 and HNO3
UV Ground Surface AlbedoUV Ground Surface AlbedoChallenge #2Challenge #2
O3
ScatteredIncid
ent
Reflection
Actinic flux = Incident + Scattered + Reflected
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Estimated UV Albedo ValuesEstimated UV Albedo Values
Data from Tanskanen and Manninen (2007)
Croplands: 0.37
“Bare” Ground: 0.83
Evergreens: 0.27
Grasses: 0.72
CMAQ/JPROC Uses 0.05
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Photolysis Rate Sensitivity to UV AlbedoPhotolysis Rate Sensitivity to UV Albedo
NO2 Photolysis Rates
0
0.25
0.5
0.75
1
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1UV Albedo
July 18 January 18
NO
2 Ph
otol
ysis
Rat
e
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CMAQ Results: OCMAQ Results: O3 3 @ 1400 MST - Difference Plots@ 1400 MST - Difference Plots
0.850.85
Albedo O3 HNO3 NO3(p) NH4(p) NH4NO3
0.55 +27% +14% +33% +22% +30%
0.65 +34% +17% +43% +29% +38%
0.75 +41% +21% +54% +36% +48%
0.85 +49% +26% +66% +45% +59%
Maximum Hourly Concentration Change
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Poor Western Landuse Data & Biogenic EmissionsPoor Western Landuse Data & Biogenic Emissions
Challenge #3Challenge #3
Biogenics (VOC’s) play a significant role in atmospheric chemistry.
Some biogenic species are highly reactive WRT the formation of ozone.
Gamble Oak: IsopreneJuniper, Saltbush: λ-pineneRabbitbrush: LimoneneSagebrush: Other monoterpenes
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Categorized as USGS Shrubland
Q: All “Shrublands” = ? A: Probably Not ….
* This is an issue in met modeling as well.
Species?Leaf Area Index?Species Emission Factors?
Landuse Data Landuse Data
& Biogenic Emissions& Biogenic Emissions
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168
Salt Lake City
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168
Logan
Biogenics Impact on Ozone (CMAQ Model – July 2005)
+
+
Biogenics and Ozone FormationBiogenics and Ozone Formation
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ConclusionsConclusions
• It is the only tool that we have so …
• Utah is up a creek.
• Significant challenges exist (external/internal)
Time-Science.com
• But progress is being made.