What would good regulation look like? · Counterfactual. What would good regulation look like?...
Transcript of What would good regulation look like? · Counterfactual. What would good regulation look like?...
Counterfactual
What would good regulation look like?Global Forum on Nicotine
Warsaw 18 June 2016
www.clivebates.com@clive_bates
1. Policy intent2. Unintended consequences3. Regulating vape tech
Be clear on policy objective
? Reduce disease
? Reduce smoking
? Reduce tobacco use
? Reduce nicotine use
? Reduce uptake by teenagers
? Reduce exposure to bystanders
? Defeat the tobacco industry
Policy objective
Reduce disease
✘ Reduce smoking
✘ Reduce tobacco use
✘ Reduce nicotine use
✘ Reduce uptake by teenagers
✘ Reduce exposure to bystanders
✘ Defeat the tobacco industry
Exploring the underlying ethics
The only purpose for which power
can be rightfully exercised over any
member of a civilized community,
against his will, is to prevent harm
to others.
His own good, either physical or
moral, is not sufficient warrant.
John Stuart Mill On Liberty, 1859
Discuss
Maximise informed choice?
1. Policy intent2. Unintended consequences3. Regulating vape tech
Relative risk is the key concept
“….the available data suggest that they are
unlikely to exceed 5% of those associated
with smoked tobacco products, and may well
be substantially lower than this figure.”
Regulatory double negative
Tough on harm reduction
Tough on e-cigarettes
Easy on harm
Most important paragraph in RCP report
“A risk-averse, precautionary approach to e-
cigarette regulation can be proposed […]
However, if this approach also makes e-
cigarettes less easily accessible, less palatable
or acceptable, more expensive, less consumer
friendly or pharmacologically less effective, or
inhibits innovation and development of new
and improved products, then it causes harm
by perpetuating smoking. (12.10)
Abstract
…Regression analyses consider how state bans on e-cigarette sales to
minors influence smoking rates among 12 to 17 year olds. Such bans
yield a statistically significant 0.9 percentage point increase in recent
smoking in this age group, relative to states without such bans.
UK Department of Health - a confession
Source: Department of Health, MHRA, Tobacco Products Directive, Impact Assessment,18 April 2016. [link]
117. [...] There may also be potential negative health implications if the restrictions on advertising reduce the number of consumers switching from tobacco products to e-cigarettes. [...]
207. There is a risk that due to the potential price increase and reduction of choice of e-cigarettes, people will choose to switch back to smoking, thus harming their health.
208. There is a risk that a black market will develop with potentially harmful e-cigarette products, due to consumers no longer having the same degree of choice in the legal market.
The case of flavours
Role of flavours in quitting
About three-quarters relied fully or partially on flavours
Choice of flavours by adults
Less than a quarter currently mostly use tobacco flavours
Did anyone ask the kids?
Shiffman S, Sembower MA, Pillitteri JL, Gerlach KK, Gitchell JG. The impact of flavor descriptors on nonsmoking teens’ and adult smokers' interest in electronic cigarettes. Nicotine Tob Res 2015
Participants indicated their interest (0-10 scale) in e-cigarettes paired with various flavor descriptors
Innovation
Diminishing and negative returns to regulation
Net benefit
Net harm
Valu
e to
soci
ety
Regulatory costs, burdens and restrictions
Builds confidence
Destroys viable firms and products
Compromises design & consumer appeal
Sweet Spot
Policy impact assessment
Regulatory conceptPossible unintended
consequence?Ban e-cigarette use in public places ?Ban advertising, promotion and sponsorship ?Product design restrictions and requirements ?Ban flavours ?Ban flavours that appeal to kids ?Ban open systems because they may be used for drugs ?Impose large scary health warnings ?Ban e-cigarette sales to under-18s ?Prohibit health claims ?Raise taxes on e-cigarettes ?
• Policy intent• Unintended consequences• Regulating vape tech
4 Ps of marketing
Promotion Price
Place Product
Marketing
Promotion Price
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MarketingPrice
"The art of taxation consists in so
plucking the goose as to obtain the
largest amount of feathers with the
least possible amount of hissing”
Jean-Baptiste Colbert
1619-1683
Promotion Price
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Marketing
European Finance Council (ECOFIN)
Conclusions 9 March 2016
12. [any e-cigarette tax] needs to be practical
and foresighted, and strike the right balance
between the revenue, expenses of tax
administration and public health objectives.
Promotion Price
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Marketing
Tax level compared to
cigarettes
Basis for equivalence
Tax base
Tax point
Promotion Price
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Marketing
Promotion Price
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MarketingStandards for devices
Mechanical risks
Thermal risks
Chemical risks
Information
Standards for liquidsPromotion Price
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Marketing
Liquid standards
Containers
Information
Testing protocol
Electrical safety - AFNORPromotion Price
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Marketing
• NF EN 60335-1:2013, Household and similar electrical appliances — Safety — Part 1: General requirements.
• NF EN 61558-1:2006+A1:2009, Safety of power transformers, power supply units and similar — Part 1: General requirements and tests.
• NF EN 62133:2013, Secondary cells and batteries containing alkaline or other non-acid electrolytes — Safety requirements for portable sealed secondary cells, and for batteries made from them, for use in portable applications.
• NF EN 62680-3:2014, Universal serial bus interfaces for data and power — Part 3: USB battery charging specifications, revision 1.2.
Uses existing standards
Intimidating consumersPromotion Price
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Marketing
This product contains nicotine which is a highly addictive substance. It is not recommended for use
by non-smokers
Informing consumersPromotion Price
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Marketing
This product is likely to be at least 95% safer
than smoking cigarettes
Promotion Price
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Marketing
Thousands of micro-decisionsPromotion Price
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Marketing
1. A bar wants to have a vape night every Thursday
2. A bar wants to dedicate one room where vaping is permitted
3. In a town with three bars, one decides it will cater for vapers, two decide they will not allow vaping
4. A bar manager decides on balance that his vaping customers prefer it and his other clientele are not that bothered – he’d do better allowing it
5. A hotel wants to allow vaping in its rooms and in its bar, but not in its restaurant, spa, and lobby
6. An office workplace decides to allow vaping breaks near the coffee machine to save on wasted smoking break time and encourage smokers to quit by switching
7. A care home wants to allow an indoor vaping area to encourage its smoking elderly residents to switch during the coming winter instead of going out in the cold
8. A vape shop is trying to help people switch from smoking and wants to demo products in the shop…
9. A shelter for homeless people allows it to make its clients welcome
10.A day centre for refugees allows it instead of smoking
Promotion Price
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Marketing
Exploring the underlying ethics
The only purpose for which power
can be rightfully exercised over any
member of a civilized community,
against his will, is to prevent harm
to others.
His own good, either physical or
moral, is not sufficient warrant.
John Stuart Mill On Liberty, 1859
Promotion Price
Place Product
Marketing
Promotion Price
Place Product
Marketing
Ensure your ads are socially responsible
Don’t target or feature children, or include content which is likely to appeal particularly to children
Don’t confuse e-cigarettes with tobacco products
Don’t make health or safety claims
Don’t make smoking cessation claims
Ensure you don’t mislead about product ingredients
Don’t mislead about where products may be used
Promotion Price
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Marketing
Unjustified EU advertising banPromotion Price
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Marketing
What would good e-cigarette regulation look like
• “Do nothing” is superior to every regulatory scheme so far
• Regulation is there to benefit consumers not to please activists
• Regulators should be haunted by unintended consequences
• Regulation should focus on disease risk not ideological objectives
• Regulation should promote informed choice and innovation
• Proportionate and justifiable standards can help shape the market
• Regulators should mostly get out of the way – the market is working
www.clivebates.com@clive_bates
Thank you… questions…